I can't see Manuka getting an upgrade that makes it properly capable of hosting an AFL side fulltime without it coming with the guarantee of an AFL license. Yeah it's capacity will be increased to 20k if the cricket stuff goes through, which isn't a given BTW, but it'd need plenty of quality of life improvements and another increase in capacity to host an AFL side fulltime.A minimum of 500k people needs to be baseline IMO.
In conjunction with: a stadium that’s hosted AFL games and even more population requirements if the market is already covered.
For example, 1.5 million people would not make a 3rd Adelaide club viable because the new club wouldn’t get a third of the share of support.
So looking at all of that, a 3rd Perth team is the only viable option for a 20th club until Manuka gets an upgrade.
Beyond that, possibly a second Brisbane club in a few decades as they’ll have the population and the stadium but they’ll need to have the demand.
Anywhere else like Sunshine Coast etc is out of the question until they have a stadium and host games there.
And no way can Sydney support a third team yet when the Giants are struggling. Two teams might be the best you can get out of them even long term, as much as the AFL wishes otherwise.
I wouldn't completely rule out a new stadium if the AFL insisted on having one built in a different location to Manuka, but it'd have to be something bare minimum.
Any talk of roofs and/or billion dollar state of the art stadiums is nonsense. The ACT simply isn't in a position to fund something like that, and unlike Tasmania the electorate would absolutely crucify any government that tried it. The rectangular sport people would, rightfully frankly, openly revolt if they tried to build a new stadium as well, but I think Barr is too arrogant to care about that TBH.



