The AFL wants 22 teams. Name your next four.

[Canberra Pear]

Still not convinced on a South West WA team.

The region is growing, but it's not growing that fast. Even if it's 2050 before we expand again, the Southwest will still only have 300k people. Bunbury itself will have fewer than 200k. For comparison, Greater Canberra will have ~900k, and Perth will have more than 3m people.

Happy to be proven wrong by any West Aussies, but if there's going to be a third WA team, I can't see anywhere but Perth being able to host it.

 

[Coolangatta]

Still not convinced on a South West WA team.

The region is growing, but it's not growing that fast. Even if it's 2050 before we expand again, the Southwest will still only have 300k people. Bunbury itself will have fewer than 200k. For comparison, Greater Canberra will have ~900k, and Perth will have more than 3m people.

Happy to be proven wrong by any West Aussies, but if there's going to be a third WA team, I can't see anywhere but Perth being able to host it.

Yeah, population is the biggest negative.

But if there’s ever a WA3, I’d like it to be a South West team, not a third Perth team.

SW WA would have a stronger identity. The downside is Optus gets 5 extra games per year, (3 home, 2 away derby’s) instead of 13.

I hope Auckland starts getting AFL games next decade. I think an Auckland club and the Sunshine Coast would make a good 21/22 combo.

23/24 Newcastle/South West WA. Would the SW have 500k people in 50 years?

25/26 for me would possibly be Darwin and Cairns but it’d be irrelevant to us by that stage.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Yeah, population is the biggest negative.

But if there’s ever a WA3, I’d like it to be a South West team, not a third Perth team.

SW WA would have a stronger identity. The downside is Optus gets 5 extra games per year, (3 home, 2 away derby’s) instead of 13.

I hope Auckland starts getting AFL games next decade. I think an Auckland club and the Sunshine Coast would make a good 21/22 combo.

23/24 Newcastle/South West WA. Would the SW have 500k people in 50 years?

25/26 for me would possibly be Darwin and Cairns but it’d be irrelevant to us by that stage.

I guess the debate for WA3 becomes sustainability versus identity.

I agree that a third Perth team is an uninspiring option.

But it also has all the reasons WA is even in the expansion talks (Optus, population, less travel).

But who knows when then 21/22 expansion round will occur. The Southwest might be in a stronger position by then.

 

[jatz14]

Still not convinced on a South West WA team.

The region is growing, but it's not growing that fast. Even if it's 2050 before we expand again, the Southwest will still only have 300k people. Bunbury itself will have fewer than 200k. For comparison, Greater Canberra will have ~900k, and Perth will have more than 3m people.

Happy to be proven wrong by any West Aussies, but if there's going to be a third WA team, I can't see anywhere but Perth being able to host it.

Culturally, the South West is the right place, but practically, its the wrong place. Perth is the right practical choice, but a third Perth team is uninspiring culturally.

 

[Coolangatta]

Culturally, the South West is the right place, but practically, its the wrong place. Perth is the right practical choice, but a third Perth team is uninspiring culturally.

So in other words, WA3 isn’t really a good option. Canberra is actually the right place culturally and practically for the 20th licence.

 

[Professor Knowall]

... I hope Auckland starts getting AFL games next decade. I think an Auckland club and the Sunshine Coast would make a good 21/22 combo. ...

The Auckland thought is an interesting one - I was surprised just how much awareness and knowledge of AFL I found in Auckland. It might've come under serious consideration if this proposal for a new cricket stadium had got up -

Victoria Park test cricket proposal revealed - NZ Herald

The 21,000-capacity test venue would be on the doorstep of CBD workers and residents.

www.nzherald.co.nz

Unfortunately, it didn't get up. NZ cricket instead have favoured a redeveloped Eden Park, which will have an arena large enough (but just barely) for international tests and T20, but much too small for AFL. This decision, should it be followed through, will certainly remove any realistic chance of an AFL club in Auckland for the foreseeable future -

New Zealand Cricket backs revamped Eden Park

Expect far more international cricket to be played in Auckland should the council back the redevelopment of Eden Park. At a time when multiple proposals for a new international sports stadium in Auckland have been whittled down to two, NZC chief executive Scott Weenink has thrown his...

www.nzc.nz

 

[hampton]

An Auckland afl team is not going to happen anytime within the next few decades and probably never. Team 20 will be Canberra. After that much more opportunity to target expansion areas that actually have some level of afl interest (Queensland) or under supply of afl teams (WA).

A quick google trends search shows afl doesn’t have half the level of interest in Auckland as netball.

If the afl had some type of New Zealand targeted growth plan and took games there etc to drive some interest maybe but at least start there and then let’s look at it in another decade.

 

[Canberra Pear]

An Auckland afl team is not going to happen anytime within the next few decades and probably never. Team 20 will be Canberra. After that much more opportunity to target expansion areas that actually have some level of afl interest (Queensland) or under supply of afl teams (WA).

A quick google trends search shows afl doesn’t have half the level of interest in Auckland as netball.

The current AFL interest in Auckland isn't really relevant. A team wouldn't be done overnight.

It'd be a slow build up of games over a few decades. If they ever get a capable stadium anyway.

 

[kaiserchief13]

19. Tasmania
20. 3rd Perth team
21. Canberra

Honestly can't see any other area having sufficient population and income. Only other options are NEQ or NT. Both areas don't have much population and income per capita isn't big, so who can afford to go to the games, sponsor etc?

 

[Canberra Pear]

19. Tasmania
20. 3rd Perth team
21. Canberra

Honestly can't see any other area having sufficient population and income. Only other options are NEQ or NT. Both areas don't have much population and income per capita isn't big, so who can afford to go to the games, sponsor etc?

And that's why the 20th team is so important.

If we're expanding in twos, there's not a clear option for Team 22 any time soon, so whoever misses out on the 20th team will be waiting a while.

 

[terrybull]

Merge the SANFL and WAFL to AFL Division 2.
Add Canberra, NT, Fitzroy

Promotion-Regulation matches at the end of the year

 

[Angus Young]

yeah

Tassie

Canberra
WA 3
SA 3

Maybe N.T

 

[Coolangatta]

And that's why the 20th team is so important.

If we're expanding in twos, there's not a clear option for Team 22 any time soon, so whoever misses out on the 20th team will be waiting a while.

I don’t really think there’s a clear option for team 21 or 22, actually.

As I said, WA3 should be a South West team, but as you said, they won’t even have the population for it in 30 years.

If we don’t actually see any new secondary markets emerge, we might be on 20 teams for a long time.

If Canberra is team 20, I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see team 21/22 in our lifetime.

The Northern Territory might get it in 50+ years, and I think North Queensland would be the ones who join them in the next round of expansion.

 

[kid_a]

The Auckland thought is an interesting one - I was surprised just how much awareness and knowledge of AFL I found in Auckland. It might've come under serious consideration if this proposal for a new cricket stadium had got up -

Victoria Park test cricket proposal revealed - NZ Herald

The 21,000-capacity test venue would be on the doorstep of CBD workers and residents.

www.nzherald.co.nz

Unfortunately, it didn't got up. NZ cricket instead have favoured a redeveloped Eden Park, which will have an arena large enough (but just barely) for international tests and T20, but much too small for AFL. This decision, should it be followed through, will certainly remove any realistic chance of an AFL club in Auckland for the foreseeable future -

New Zealand Cricket backs revamped Eden Park

Expect far more international cricket to be played in Auckland should the council back the redevelopment of Eden Park. At a time when multiple proposals for a new international sports stadium in Auckland have been whittled down to two, NZC chief executive Scott Weenink has thrown his...

www.nzc.nz

Yeah a shame that didn't get up, there is simply no venue in Auckland that can host AFL, plus it has insanely erratic weather....weirdly it's Christchurch that has the most stable weather of NZ's cities

I umpired games of the aflnz comp when I lived over in NZ for a year, a fair few kiwis who had lived in Australia and moved back had stated they'd be keen to watch a match should it ever go there like if the saints gave it another crack or the dees or somebody (that was people both involved and not involved in the aflnz community)


The best two venues in the country for hosting AFL matches in terms of dimensions and ability to host big events are basin reserve (Wellington) and Hagley Oval (Christchurch)....but much smaller markets that are nowhere near as cosmopolitan as Auckland.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I don’t really think there’s a clear option for team 21 or 22, actually.

As I said, WA3 should be a South West team, but as you said, they won’t even have the population for it in 30 years.

If we don’t actually see any new secondary markets emerge, we might be on 20 teams for a long time.

If Canberra is team 20, I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see team 21/22 in our lifetime.

The Northern Territory might get it in 50+ years, and I think North Queensland would be the ones who join them in the next round of expansion.

Agreed. There are diminishing returns on expansion. We could realistically get to 2060 or beyond without a 21st team.

So while the 20th team is obviously a question of who can sustain a team in five years' time, it's also a question of where you want a team in 30 years' time.

And it'd be a pretty glaring hole if we didn't have a team representing the ~1.2m people in the Capital Region.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Still not convinced on a South West WA team.

The region is growing, but it's not growing that fast. Even if it's 2050 before we expand again, the Southwest will still only have 300k people. Bunbury itself will have fewer than 200k. For comparison, Greater Canberra will have ~900k, and Perth will have more than 3m people.

Happy to be proven wrong by any West Aussies, but if there's going to be a third WA team, I can't see anywhere but Perth being able to host it.

I’m not from WA, but is there any reason why a WA3 model like this wouldn’t be sustainable?

• 7 x games at an upgraded Hands Oval, Bunbury (ave crowds of 18k)

• 2 x home games at Optus v Eagles and Dockers (ave crowds of 50k)

• 2 x home games at Optus v big interstate clubs e.g. Collingwood and Carlton (ave crowds of 30k)

Surely, there’d be a market for some Perth-based footy fans to get a 4 game membership for the new club? Especially since they’d include access to both home derbies, as well as there being 40k Eagles members on a waiting list.

Anyway, if they could attract the numbers listed above then they’d have average attendances of 26k and the vast majority of them would be close to capacity.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I’m not from WA, but is there any reason why a WA3 model like this wouldn’t be sustainable?

• 7 x games at an upgraded Hands Oval, Bunbury (ave crowds of 18k)

• 2 x home games at Optus v Eagles and Dockers (ave crowds of 50k)

• 2 x home games at Optus v big interstate clubs e.g. Collingwood and Carlton (ave crowds of 30k)

Surely, there’d be a market for some Perth-based footy fans to get a 4 game membership for the new club? Especially since they’d include access to both home derbies, as well as there being 40k Eagles members on a waiting list.

Anyway, if they could attract the numbers listed above then they’d have average attendances of 26k and the vast majority of them would be close to capacity.

I know there'd be travel from further abroad, but maintaining an 18k average for a city of 100k is a pretty big ask.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

I know there'd be travel from further abroad, but maintaining an 18k average for a city of 100k is a pretty big ask.

True that. Attracting a crowd of that size would also be dependent on some people travelling in from across the SW, Mandurah, even some from Perth who head down the coast on the weekend.

The AFL would probably have access to the data on the location of ticket purchases for the North Melbourne games in Bunbury. Even then it’s only one game per year, v Dockers and Eagles, which would skew the data anyway.