The Brownlow Guru Speaks - 2017

[schmuttt]

Craffles most team votes

Adel - Sloane
Bris - Beams
Carl - Gibbs
Coll - Treloar
Dons - Merrett
Freo - Neale (Lock)
Geel - Danger (Lock)
GCS - Ablett (Lock)
GWS - Kelly
Haw - Mitchell (Lock)
Melb - Oliver
Norf - Brown
Port - Ryder
Rich - Dusty (lock)
Saints - Ross
Sydney - JPK (lock)
West Coast - Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Bont

Gonna multi my locks for most likely combined odds of $1.22

Oliver is a lock for Melbourne.

 

[Young Gun #6]

Got Martin/Mitchell/Kelly/Sloane/Oliver at $401, worth a sneaky 5 on it

The most team votes have only been open for about 6-7 weeks and I don't know how you possibly could've gotten $401 odds for those 5?

1.10
1.20
2
2.20
2.50

Would be about the max those guys got to since most team votes have opened anywhere..

 

[BPikkers]

I'm a bit of a novice punter, so not sure what the best way to use this information to make a little money would be. I was thinking of putting a bit on Clayton Oliver or Taylor Adams to finish top ten ($4 and $8 respectively). Would this be a good idea? What are some other good options?

I think Vickery in the top 500 may be the way to go

 

[Listclogger]

I think Vickery in the top 500 may be the way to go

I thought the Liston count was last week.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Guru - is Dustin Martins odds the shortest youve ever framed?

 

[Acinath]

The most team votes have only been open for about 6-7 weeks and I don't know how you possibly could've gotten $401 odds for those 5?

1.10
1.20
2
2.20
2.50

Would be about the max those guys got to since most team votes have opened anywhere..

Sorry, should have been clearer. It's those 5 to finish top 5, in that order.

 

[Jonts]

Love this, every year BG has made me a few quid

 

[Marcus DuQuesne]

Any award given by umpires should be called the Downlow Medal. That said DM by all accounts is a "hot" fave as mid fielders have a firm hold on this award. For me when Denis Marshall did not win it in 1968 it lost all relevance. Jezza should have won it as well. Yep it's the who cares award. So good luck to you and your system I personally DGAF

 

[RightYouAreThen]

Its gonna be great tbh

is Mark Williams going to give Martin's speech?

 

[BEEG]

Paid 2 years ago and didn't get a thing right.

 

[Tyler Hodges]

I put a $20 on Martin, Mitchell and Kelly most for each respective side back in round 2, paying out $380 so Monday will be an exciting for me personally

 

[HairyO]

You're all gonna look silly when Nick Suburban wins it

You mean Ben McEvoy.

 

[MitchRobinson12]

Cant wait for the team highest votes odds, usually make money every year from this thread (y)

 

[telsor]

I will be staggered if Danger does not poll the most votes or get close.
Selwood and Duncan had good games but few that would have stolen the 3's from Danger which I think he would have a fair few of.
Plus his suspension came late in the season so umps would prob only be able to downgrade for the last 2 rounds, but he played well there so he could probably still get some votes.

Dusty has had a lot of BOG games, was probably ahead when Danger got suspended and has taken pretty much all the other awards, often quite comfortably.

Umps don't actually downgrade votes to any appreciable degree, although missing a game will possibly hurt.

It might be close, but Martin will most likely finish ahead regardless.

 

[Farm Boy]

Dusty has had a lot of BOG games, was probably ahead when Danger got suspended and has taken pretty much all the other awards, often quite comfortably.

Umps don't actually downgrade votes to any appreciable degree, although missing a game will possibly hurt.

It might be close, but Martin will most likely finish ahead regardless.

No he won't. Dangerfield will finish ahead of Martin. You can take that to the bank.

 

[telsor]

No he won't. Dangerfield will finish ahead of Martin. You can take that to the bank.

APRA wants to close your 'bank' down.

 

[thetradesman]

Hey peeps, off topic but does anyone know of any good pubs to watch the brownlow in Melbourne?
Cheers.

 

[RhinotheFC]

I picked up Tom Mitchell top 3 @$3 and Josh Kelly top 3 @$7 a couple of months ago.

 

[10571z]

Not sure how he will pole but adams is $34 for top 5 on sportsbet so going by the guru that's good value

 

[Luv_our_club]

Guru, I`d love to see you do something with the AA team into the future.

Every year I think there are gross omissions and inclusions.

 

[popsikle99]

Any award given by umpires should be called the Downlow Medal. That said DM by all accounts is a "hot" fave as mid fielders have a firm hold on this award. For me when Denis Marshall did not win it in 1968 it lost all relevance. Jezza should have won it as well. Yep it's the who cares award. So good luck to you and your system I personally DGAF

Then why post?

 

[2006_Eagles]

Basically the principle is if you can get greater odds than those displayed above, it's a value bet and (if the system is right), over a number of bets you'll end up in front.

He's saying Taylor Adams is a $3.5 chance to finish in the Top 5. If you can get greater than that, it's value.

$8 to finish top 10 then is definite value.

He's $17.50 with the TAB for a Top 5er

 

[2006_Eagles]

I put a $20 on Martin, Mitchell and Kelly most for each respective side back in round 2, paying out $380 so Monday will be an exciting for me personally

Shrewd mate, very shrewd

 

[sobrave]

Have you taken into consideration the umps might not like his neck tatts and therefore end up giving him 1 or 0 votes when he was clearly BOG?

 

[Tigers123]

Have you taken into consideration the umps might not like his neck tatts and therefore end up giving him 1 or 0 votes when he was clearly BOG?

Has that ever happened?
75 Brownlow votes in the past 4 seasons

In the last 14 games last season he got 23 votes

He always gets the votes he deserves mate