The changing face of SC

[Thumpy]

This has been a question that has pondered me quite recentley and I'm interested to know what other people think about this topic. Where is SC heading in the future? What kind of strategies do you think will become the norm in 1-2 years?

First and foremost we have the bye coming in next year which is going to change a lot of the things that we have become accustomed to. The general sensus on the DT board is that things will be kept the same, making the game much more harder and pre-season research much more important for success in this game.

We have seen this year that value is no longer as important in SC as it once was. Mid-pricers are dying out and value upgrades are becoming much less common. So on this basis starting teams are starting to revert back to the old Guns/Rookies strategy. Why is this though? My opinion is because national draft rookies are coming into the system much more mature, physically stronger and more skilled this leads to better job-security and higher scoring potential. There's no doubting that rookies conatin the most value out of any other players so if they are guaranteed a spot in their best 22 that it makes perfect sense to pick them. This is only going to increase next year when we have a plethora of GC17 rookies who are all safely in their best 22 because of the inexperience on that list.

Unfortunately this is going to make the game a lot more easier for newbies. Mid-pricers without a doubt, are the hardest to predict a season average. It's so easy just to pick the big name players (GAJ, Judd, Goddard etc.) and then look at the pre-season stats/team sheets and pick the best crop of rookies for your team. It requires much more skill to predict and pick the best mid-pricers each year and if they become extinct then I think we'll find the game becomes a lot more easier for n00bs. Of course this won't take place next year because of the bye and its implications on the game but I'm talking more about 2012 and beyond.

Feel free to add to the discussion...

 

[GoinApe]

First and foremost we have the bye coming in next year which is going to change a lot of the things that we have become accustomed to. The general sensus on the DT board is that things will be kept the same, making the game much more harder and pre-season research much more important for success in this game.

stuff all that research business. i have to work. not worrying about the bye next year either. im just picking the best crop of players and to hell with it. prob end up finishing 20,000th...but oh well. can over think this game i reckon.

We have seen this year that value is no longer as important in SC as it once was. Mid-pricers are dying out and value upgrades are becoming much less common. So on this basis starting teams are starting to revert back to the old Guns/Rookies strategy.

well im not sure the GnR strategy is as viable as it was, due to the fact you have to pay 170k for a top ten pick.You have to look more for value these days due to that fact (cant squeeze all the guns you want it as easy). I think the GnR is harder than it was. And if they whack a premium on mature age rookies it'll make a gnr staregy even harder and a mid price strategy that much more more viable.

really not sure about the mid-pricers dying out thing. its the same as it ever was to me. but i could be wrong. maybe that is the case this year? but one year dont make a trend.

 

[Hot Tiges]

Interesting read there. My thoughts based on this year? Don't spend heaps in the forward line. Probably score better with a bunce of al cheapos and mid-rangers.

 

[shiva25]

Interesting read there. My thoughts based on this year? Don't spend heaps in the forward line. Probably score better with a bunce of al cheapos and mid-rangers.

Tend to agree there. I think your better off starting off the season with a bunch of rookies and mid pricers in your forward line and spending big on backs and mids as you can virtually pick up the gun forwards for a bargain at any stage throughout the year. The only forward who hasnt suffered a dramatic drop has been Chapman. There are people who would have paid well over 500k for players like Okeefe, Brown, Pavlich, Didak and Goodes at the start of the season and yet some of those forwards have dropped to well below the 400k mark at various stages this year. You could of started off with cheapies like Rockliff, Fyfe, Betts, Jack Reiwodlt and Pods who all have given reasonable scores throughout the season and upgraded the later on as the premiums fell in price

 

[borrat]

stuff all that research business. i have to work. not worrying about the bye next year either. im just picking the best crop of players and to hell with it. prob end up finishing 20,000th...but oh well. can over think this game i reckon.



well im not sure the GnR strategy is as viable as it was, due to the fact you have to pay 170k for a top ten pick.You have to look more for value these days due to that fact (cant squeeze all the guns you want it as easy). I think the GnR is harder than it was. And if they whack a premium on mature age rookies it'll make a gnr staregy even harder and a mid price strategy that much more more viable.

really not sure about the mid-pricers dying out thing. its the same as it ever was to me. but i could be wrong. maybe that is the case this year? but one year dont make a trend.

why would they do that for?

what would be the point of it?

and how would they determine what a "mature" age rookie is

 

[Thumpy]

well im not sure the GnR strategy is as viable as it was, due to the fact you have to pay 170k for a top ten pick.You have to look more for value these days due to that fact (cant squeeze all the guns you want it as easy). I think the GnR is harder than it was. And if they whack a premium on mature age rookies it'll make a gnr staregy even harder and a mid price strategy that much more more viable.

really not sure about the mid-pricers dying out thing. its the same as it ever was to me. but i could be wrong. maybe that is the case this year? but one year dont make a trend.

Well I normally split the mid-pricers into two groups. The first group are those underpriced guns who have showed keeper potential in the past. Malceski, Waters, Hille etc are all examples of these and they have all exceled this year. If the value is there then they are too good to ignore. The people who didn't pick these players this year have fallen behind the pack and I believe this will be the same for years to come.

The second group are those that you are predicting a 'breakout' year from. Dangefield, Ballantyne, Warren, Campbell, Naitanui are good examples of these and none of them have performed anywhere near expectations (bar Ballantyne).

My comments were more directed at the second group of mid-pricers. I believe these days the rookies only have to average around 60-70 to be better value and this won't change in the future. There has been an absolute plethora of rookies avaliable this year (Silvagni, Nason, Trengove, Scully, Trengove, Martin, Morabito, Barlow, Warnock, Pods, Rockliff, Gumby, Hitchcock), who played early games and scored in this range. All of these players would have been better starting picks than most mid-pricers and I doubt this will change next year with all the GC17 rookies coming in.

 

[dlanod]

More bench players, more trades likely next year too, to handle the byes. Could be a lot of weight on rookies or midpricers depending on where the salary cap ends up.

http://dreamteamtalk.com/2010/07/07/dt2011-how-will-it-work/

 

[GoinApe]

why would they do that for?

what would be the point of it?

and how would they determine what a "mature" age rookie is

i dont know...to be a-holes maybe? I dont know what they're thinking up in SC headquarters. Im just wildly speculating. Given the current trend of jacking up the price of 1st rounds pick i wouldnt be too surprised to see it happen though.But what do i know. I can see someone somewhere thinking that older players have more experience and stronger bodies and therefore deserve some kinda premium bump. That'd be the only reasoning they could probably use i reckon. Certainly make a guns and rookies strategy even harder if they did it.

 

[GoinApe]

...

The second group are those that you are predicting a 'breakout' year from. Dangefield, Ballantyne, Warren, Campbell, Naitanui are good examples of these and none of them have performed anywhere near expectations (bar Ballantyne).

My comments were more directed at the second group of mid-pricers. I believe these days the rookies only have to average around 60-70 to be better value and this won't change in the future. There has been an absolute plethora of rookies avaliable this year (Silvagni, Nason, Trengove, Scully, Trengove, Martin, Morabito, Barlow, Warnock, Pods, Rockliff, Gumby, Hitchcock), who played early games and scored in this range. All of these players would have been better starting picks than most mid-pricers and I doubt this will change next year with all the GC17 rookies coming in.

yeah, now that u say that i cant think of any players off the top of my head having a 'breakout' year and exploding from 250-300k up to 450-500k this year (ballantyne was ok. Thomas, who's really more high end, has had a good year). Did have a few of these guys in my side this year (danger) and their failure has had me really questioning the value of a mid-price strategy over a GnR strategy at times. But at the same time, with the premium placed on 1st round picks the GnR strategy is a little harder. You are forced more to look for value somewhere, be it either players who have been discounted due to injury or players having a breakout.

 

[bestin]

the mid pricers have failed for me this year

 

[borrat]

i dont know...to be a-holes maybe? I dont know what they're thinking up in SC headquarters. Im just wildly speculating. Given the current trend of jacking up the price of 1st rounds pick i wouldnt be too surprised to see it happen though.But what do i know. I can see someone somewhere thinking that older players have more experience and stronger bodies and therefore deserve some kinda premium bump. That'd be the only reasoning they could probably use i reckon. Certainly make a guns and rookies strategy even harder if they did it.

well we know that they are arseholes so wouldnt be to surprised if they did do it in fact

 

[soho]

jack riewoldt has had a break out season
and all the players like malcheski, maguire, waters and kennelly have all been good pickups...

the other key is mature age rookies and players with VFL, SANFL and WAFL experience...

i had connors in my team from rnd 1 and was suspended in rnd 3...
he was 170k and i wrote a thread on him at the start of the season saying he was a better pick than skully/trengrove because of his age...
i feel his most recent games have vindicated my position...

i dont think Ballantyne has paid off... he cost 270 to start, is now worth 365 and has only averaged 75ish, including some very low scoring rounds... plenty of rookies who have averaged about the same, but would have cost 100k less to start off, and increased 100k more... 200k turn around...

 

[thomas_m18]

jack riewoldt has had a break out season
and all the players like malcheski, maguire, waters and kennelly have all been good pickups...

the other key is mature age rookies and players with VFL, SANFL and WAFL experience...

i had connors in my team from rnd 1 and was suspended in rnd 3...
he was 170k and i wrote a thread on him at the start of the season saying he was a better pick than skully/trengrove because of his age...
i feel his most recent games have vindicated my position...

i dont think Ballantyne has paid off... he cost 270 to start, is now worth 365 and has only averaged 75ish, including some very low scoring rounds... plenty of rookies who have averaged about the same, but would have cost 100k less to start off, and increased 100k more... 200k turn around...

Supercoach isn't all about making money, it's about scoring points. Ballantyne scored more than any forward rookie besides Rockliff/Pods off the top of my head, and as a starting forward, Ballantyne was a more than adequate choice for an F7 IMO. As a small forward, he'll have down weeks, but he's bee fairly good this season IMO.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Supercoach isn't all about making money, it's about scoring points. Ballantyne scored more than any forward rookie besides Rockliff/Pods off the top of my head, and as a starting forward, Ballantyne was a more than adequate choice for an F7 IMO. As a small forward, he'll have down weeks, but he's bee fairly good this season IMO.

Agree with you there Thomas but at the end of the day it all depends on your strategy. My strategy was based on picking as many cash cow prospects as possible so I could assess later on then pick up the best points scorers. The first few rounds were based on making as much money as possible so then later rounds I can afford the absolute premium guns that are proven points scorers with as few trades a possible... I.e. Prior to this weeks trades I had 560K sitting there allowing me to straight upgrade as opposed to doing the double downgrade/upgrade to a few guns... Thus by focusing on making money early on I can now better upgrade to better points scorers for fewer trades.

There's no point in sitting in the middle strategy-wise imo... You either go the "as many points as possible" strategy from day 1 or the full on "cash-generation" strategy. For me it has to be cash-generation to gain more significant benefits later on after you have had time to assess. If you chase points early then you take the risk you aren't selecting the best points scorers.... You don't have the benefit of assessment. At least if you make a heap of money early you can assess and pick up the guns as you go.

 

[soho]

ballantyne isnt a rookie so i dont know what you're achieving by comparing him with rookies?

staker was a similar price at the start of the year, has gone up more in value and is scoring better...

 

[marky53]

There will again be a lot of rookies because of the introduction of gc.... They will play plenty of kids who will play many games and should generate cash.... I think this will help avoid picking up players like relton Roberts from pre season and end up barely playing