Game Day 2023 Round 1 - SC Season Opener Preview - Let the Games Begin / Festival of the Midpricer

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The times, they are a changing… or are they?

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It’s been an interesting year in the ever-changing SC landscape, gentleladies and gentlecampaigners.

The game creators made a number of tweaks which may have fundamentally changed the game and the optimal strategy to apply:
  • We’ve copped a genuine, bonafide, rootin’, tootin’ *ton of trades. 36 trades is a heap, no matter which way you slice it;
  • We’ve copped trade boosts, which can be deployed in the earlier rounds (so, say, starting rd 5 / 6 thru rd 12 / 13 in particular) to increase your upgrade cadence and / or to allow you to do some heavy-duty premo slingshotting across the bye;
  • The Magic Number for initial pricing is unusually high this year at 5.5k/pt. In past years, it was around 5.4k/pt. That should, all things being equal, mean that premo prices dip a little harder than previous years (this assumes the steady state MN will end up in the same region as any other year);
  • We’ve now got a pretty generous bye round schedule, Rd 13 potentially offering possibilities to target Suns / Geelong players either in initial selections (like a Tom Stewart / Sam Flanders / Jarrod Witts, e.g.) or together with Rd 12 bye players prior to Rd 14 (e.g. Touk Miller,, given the minor hamstring hiccup will see many potential owners gun-shy om starting him in Rd 1)
  • Byes.JPG
    Salvador Dali’s later works tended to lack the spark of his earlier output, it must be said.


  • There seems to have been a little bit of a shift to more generous / enticing initial pricing of midpricers.
In general terms (she’s going to get a touch abstract, kids, sorry, time to get my Poindexter on), the increase in the number of trades and the more attractive midpricer discounting conspired last year to bring the gold standard in this caper, the Guns’n’Rookies strategy, into question...​
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  • The increase in the number of trades means – in heavily simplified terms – the cash needed to be generated by a trade (or earnt by a cash cow prior to trade-out) reduces.
  • Even if you assume final squad values might be around the 14m mark under the new system (as opposed to, say, 13.5m or so in the old world), that still means that the value of a trade reduces. A very back of the envelope calculation might help:
    • Old World
    • Brave New World
    • Total Trades
    • 30
    • Total Trades
    • 36
    • Thereof injury / sideways
    • 6
    • Thereof injury / sideways
    • 7
    • Residual ‘money generating’ trades
    • 24
    • Residual ‘money generating’ trades
    • 29
    • Starting Squad Value
    • 10m
    • Starting Squad Value
    • 10m
    • Final Squad Value
    • 13.5m
    • Final Squad Value
    • 13.9m
    • Value of a Trade
    • (3.5m / 24 trades)
    • ~150k/trade
    • Value of a Trade
    • (3.5m / 24 trades)
    • ~135k/trade
    • Not everyone will agree with this and it’s heavily stylized, but that’s not really the point. The point is we’re probably looking at trades needing to generate less money to be considered viable, bringing midpricers into the frame.
    • And that, in theory, means that there is a little shift away from G’n’R, the best option from a return in investment (ROI) perspective, to strategies with more midpriced selections (we’ll still have a sprinkling of rookies generating a fair bit more than the theoretical value of a trade) that might not ultimately make quite as much money, but can potentially increase your on-field output, particularly early doors. Handy both from the point of view of banking early league wins and tracking square with the leaders if overall’s more your go.
    • And at the end of the day, money can’t buy you happiness, but it also can’t always buy you league wins – you need on-field scoring power for that. How much cash the pigs are earning on the bench doesn’t matter a heap until you punch them out. A ton on the field is worth eleventy billion on the bench, as the saying goes* (* not really, just made that up).
Sounds great in theory, yeah, so let’s load up on midpricers, kick back and watch the league wins roll in?

Maybe, maybe not. Last year, it definitely worked well. But if you dig a little deeper, last year was also a little different than your average year. Popular midpriced selections such as Jarrod Witts, James Sicily, Patrick Cripps and George Hewett, to name a handful, didn’t just perform well above their starting prices, they were amongst the very best players in their respective lines for the bulk of the year (even when things soured a touch for a couple late on, by that stage every prick and his canine companion had jumped on them, so it didn’t matter sooooo much).

On a side note, this also highlighted the year-to-year variance of the established SC content providers out there. Depending on the community you were aligned with, you might have been influenced to go all-in on Sicily, Hewett, Witts, Cripps and co., to eschew the one or the other etc., which might have seen you fly out of the starter’s gate...
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John Longmire always felt more at ease at the racetrack for some reason

...or trip over your own feet...

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That doesn't tickle, campaigners, I'll give you the hot tip...

... and play catch up all year.

We saw (and I’m going purely off memory here) that a couple of the Dr SC and FTTV content teams (both of which are outstanding) got left behind a bit at the start of the year. But there are two things to bear in mind there:
  • When you select your starting sides, you’re basing it on expected outcomes, there are no guarantees. What would be the percentage play 8 years out of 10 might end up being a disadvantage in an outlier year, and there were some outlier elements to 2022.
  • Over the long haul, cream tends to rise and those one-off impacts become less important. All of those operators were able to recover and finish the year off well, because over the journey they pulled the right rein more often than not and certainly more often than your average bear, resulting in expected outcome and actual outcome gradually converging.
But I digress. The ultimate question is: How much of the success of midpriced strategies was due to a general shift, how much was driven by a combination of commonly selected midpriced boiz just deciding to go off chops?

I’m not going to pretend I have the answer, every year is different and separating out fundamental shifts from ephemera is not an easy task.

5 - confused.gif
Try as he may, Dazzler was unable to explain how Charlie Comben went from being in 153% of teams to precisely 0 in a single display of abject shitness.

At the end of the day, the old golfer’s adage of playing it how it lies holds true. If life gives you lemons, make lemonade, if life gives you a bunch of low-cost, high prospect rookies, welcome to the jungle, gunners, if the cupboard is bare on that front but there are some juicy midpricers, then giddy up and hitch your wagon to Stupid Sexy Flanders, Finn Callaghan, Liam Jones and co. and see how you fare, accepting that you might start off a touch lighter on the premo front but end up with some fairly easy stepping stones to reach them if your cheapies fire out of the gate.

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Live cross to G'n'R hardliners trying to resist the allure of a 250ker running around like an unregistered dog taking 37 marks a game and with more thirst than Robbo at an AFL awards night
 
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What to look for in your premos / breakout candidates:

For your out-and-out premos, you’re mostly interested in:

An unblemished preseason:
  • Touk Miller, Darcy Parish, Jack Steele, Darcy Cameron and co. all represent more downside risk than their peers because they have had some discontinuity on this front (and in Parish’s case, tag concerns), although Steele did almost register 10 tackles in their final hitout, so the shoulder can’t be too bad.
    6 - [PLAYERCARD]Darcy Parish[/PLAYERCARD].gif
    Seeing DP3 get rag-dolled by a five-year old girl with a headcold in the final praccy forced Steve's hand in the end.
Role:
  • If Clayton Oliver really does spend some time on the halfback line, he looked a touch lost at sea and that might mean a slight downtick. Big if, though.
  • Right now, Darcy Cameron is on the nose, given the injury hiccup and the Mason Cox ruck share, but that could all change if Cox is not named in Rd 1, because a lone Wolf DC is much more likely to give F4-level output and give the option to run him as R2 temporarily at the start of the year and swing him down once the dust settles on the ruck line and we get a feel for who the topliners are going to be.
General team stability and competitiveness:
  • Sides with new coaches tend to be a little less predictable than sides with an established structure.
  • That can be a good thing (e.g. Josh Kelly at GWS, who seems to have a more inside role with a high volume of CBAs under Kingsley), or a higher amount of ball retention on the backline at Essendon under Brad Scott, which could benefit all Bomber DEFs, like Ridley
  • It can also be a bad thing (Jack Steele hasn’t had a pristine preseason, but there’s also the possibility that his role and output will suffer under Ross Lyon due to changes in game style, usage etc. - if history is any guide)
  • As evidenced by the dominant displays of GWS vs GCS and WBD vs North, it is bloody hard for a premo / up-and-comer to give us the output we need if they are playing in a team which is getting outscored by hundreds of points every week on the SC front.
Potential growth / upside:
  • An LDU / a Tom Green / Noah Anderson type is more likely to have a chance to take the next step and close the gap to the überpremos.
  • Sam Flanders, Finn Callaghan and co. don’t shape as premos, but do shape as high upside potentials – especially if there are some injuries to current inside MIDs in their respective outfits.
  • Dunkley’s departure will surely benefit some WBD MIDs, making Bont, Macrae, Libba and maybe even Bailey Smiff potentially attractive options.
  • Jake Lloyd, on the other hand, appears to have less of a mortgage on distribution down back. Darcy Cameron, Max Gawn / Brodie Grundy and Sean Darcy, to name a handful, may all have their ceilings capped to an extent by role shares in their lines.
  • Players struggling with tags such as Darcy Parish and Nick Daicos mean revising upside expectations.
Performance vs price:
  • Players come in priced at $5.5k/pt at the start of the year and land somewhere around $5.1k/pt at steady state.
  • Regardless of the value you use, ideally you want your players to outperform their ‘priced at’ output (which you get by dividing their price by whatever Magic Number you feel like plugging in – the main thing is to have a common basis / standard for all).
  • Here’s another approach (this bloke really knows his stuff, worth a follow):


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    Alec was never the best at school - it's Always Be Optimizing, you useless prick...

Captainability:
  • This is not a concern for all premos, but you’ve got to have a couple of big boiz who you can confidently slap ther VC / C on week in, week out.
  • And for those fellas, performance vs price isn’t as big a factor.
  • You have to accept a bit of inefficiency to ensure you’ve got the ability to get max points by making sure you’ve got the best of the best at your disposal.
  • Josh Dunkley honestly might be one of those at an acceptable price and as a bloke that surely every serious SCer will be starting with in any case, so we might get lucky there.
  • But that won’t be enough, and for that reason, even if it’s not efficient spend, you’ll want to be ponying up the cash for a Clarinald von Fantapants or Rorza Laird (or if you’re feeling a touch saucy, both), especially given that previously reliable RUCs don’t seem particularly captainable this year.

    8 - porque no.gif
    She might as well get another run when we're trotting out the greatest hits...
 
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How to pick your side
  • Half-cut
  • Wearing matching Nick Daicos for PM onesies with your significant other while watching MAFS and eating Ben & Jerry's
  • While getting your ‘Death to Seagull Lloyd’ tattoo freshened up
  • While eating a succulent Chinese meal
  • Between contemplating the impact of Nagarjuna’s philosophy of the middle way on basket weaving technologies in Ancient Mesopotamia and cooking dinner

    9 - max-gawn-popcorn.gif
    Maxy always preferred to select his side while watching Robbo have an aneurysm over the colour of the footy on 360...
How the * would I know and who the * cares? None of that s**t matters.

What possibly does matter, ultimately, is getting the sequence right.
  • Select your permacaptain options, blokes you reckon you need to maximize that 2x score.
  • Focus on rookies / cash generators – make sure you’re selecting what you consider to be the very best generators / breakout types who could run you close enough to premo output to save you a trade. Do not compromise - grabbing that 117ker who is out on his arse by Rd 4 instead of the 150k cut price senior player or higher tier rookie mayleave you short on cash down the line to bring in the supersexy swinging premos you want to once upgrade season starts. Focus on keeping low-scorers off-field wherever possible.
  • Select remaining premos as budget allows.
  • (Don’t select blokes in your starting side based around expectations that they’ll gain DPP, wait for it to become concrete. As an example, Lachie Whitfield looks to be in good shape and back in a lucrative DEF role, and he comes at a nice price. But at the moment he’s MID-only and he may not end up gaining DPP, who knows? So cross that bridge if and when you come to it, don’t just assume it’ll happen, the SC gods are absolute bastards.)
Others might disagree with the above and it is simplified, but as a basic rule of thumb it’s OK.

There are considerations around the premo / rookie mix within the individual lines to minimize the potential underpant stains you’re forced to field until you can get that 30’s operator off-field up forward, e.g., but you’ll see as you go along.

And if you’re at sixes and sevens, there is absolutely nothing wrong with using the wisdom of the crowd to help you in your quest for SC domination.

Have a look at the sides of coaches who consistently manage high finishes and when in doubt, align your selection strategies with theirs.

There are no extra points for originality, you don’t get a bonus for selecting a team full of lactose intolerant West Australians whose names contain the letters ‘Q’ and ‘Z’, and being able to dance the names of all of your players Eurythmics-style might impress the lads / lasses down at the pub , but it means 2/3 of 5/8 of *-all in an SC context.

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I prefer to use interpretive dance over posting a screenshot of my side, personally...

All you want and need to focus on is assembling a squad of pricks ready to tear campaigners’ throats out for you, and if that entails looking over other people’s shoulders, get your Nike on and just do it, muchachos.


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Nothing wrong with it, we all do it if we're honest.
 
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Midpricers:

I can’t pretend to offer a lot of insight here. I didn’t catch all of the preseason and am not as across the nuances as many of you are. Back yourselves in based on your research and gut feel. I can’t really rely on either this year and will be avoiding the midpricers other than the handful everyone will be getting on, the town bikes Elliot Yeo and Jacob ‘Dennis’ Hopper. I understand the attraction of Worpel, Flanders, Callaghan, LDU, Tom Green, etc.

The only thing I’d draw your attention to is the below. The main thing about it is that those most successful SC picks (in terms of value based on $/pt) are the ones in that 400k bracket. The 200k bracket, in comparison, is seemingly less profitable. Yet that seems to be the bracket we’re skewing towards in post-praccy tweaks.

Overall:


By Position:



Rookies:

There are truly too many to list here, as we have a big batch of seasoned players coming in at (elevated) rookie prices, ranging from:

Oscar Allen (210k FWD, WCE)
Toby McLean (179k MID/FWD, WBD)
Josh Bruce (161k FWD but likely to play a defensive role and pick up DPP, WBD)
Esava Ratugolea (174k RUC/FWD, GEE) and
Ben King (176k FWD, GCS) up forward to

Liam Jones (228k DEF, WBD, has looked good and racked up intercepts, aided in part by pressured delivery into the forward 50 by the beleaguered NTH MIDs)

11 - [PLAYERCARD]Liam Jones[/PLAYERCARD].gif
Whatever you think of the vaccine stance, it is good for footy that L-Jizz is back prowling the backline.

Hayden Crozier
(doesn’t have rock solid JS, picked up an injury in the final praccy, but at 219k as a WBD DEF, he looked a pretty viable option)

Connor McKenna (168k DEF, BRL – has looked OK and certainly has three-digit outburst games in him but might be a sub candidate and in my personal opinion is softer than Charmin for heading home)
12 - soft kobe-bryant.gif

Charlie Constable (124k DEF/MID, GCS)

There are some very good slightly higher-priced options alongside the promising kids to consider.

Full disclosure: Of these, I am currently running four:

Ratugolea for the DPP flex and the reasonable JS with Henry the Elder out for a while injured;
Toby McLean because every bastard has him;
Charlie Constable even though he looked shaky in his contested efforts because he seemed to be used for backline exits;
Connor McKenna because I can’t feel alive without a touch of self-loathing, I guess.

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Don't have to like 'em to pick 'em

In terms of the likely genuine rookies:

Darcy Wilmot (DEF+. BRL) impressed in the finals series and at 124k has seemingly OK early JS, seems straightforward.

Alex Cincotta (mature ager, 102k DEF/MID) looked legit good for the Blues in his preseason hitouts and the DPP flex and low, low price seems a nice option, as could be youngster Lachie Cowan (117k DEF, CAR), one to monitor.

Reuben Ginbey 171k DEF/MID, WCE) looked solid on the weekend and found a bit of the ball in a nice role. His compadre at WCE, Campbell Chesser (124k DEF/MID) might also get the nod, wait and see.

Will Aschroft will be selected in 113.6% of all starting sides despite the high price tag (203k MID, BRL) because he looks to be another in the vein of Sam Walsh / Matty Rowell / Nick Daicos types with which we have been blessed in recent years, and even if he isn’t, everyone else will have him, so no harm done.

Cam Mackenzie (MID, 180k, HAW) has had a great role and made the most of his chances in an emerging Hawks midfield which offers plenty of opportunities for young fellas, so he’ll be very popular as long as Sam Mitchell doesn’t hold him back come Rd 1.

There are plenty of other options to choose from in the midfield, including Will Philipps (158k MID, NTH), who comes highly touted and should get plenty of opportunities after having had a lack of continuity through injury and glandular fever to date.

The recycled Oscar Baker (124k MID. WBD) has looked very good in a wing role, the price is nice and Lord Farquaad, for all his faults, tends to give the recruits a decent chance if they look the goods.
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Might be getting low on feathers, but old Bevo still has the strut of a man who enjoys crushing SCers' souls.

There are other options which can be mentioned, but it seems that there are also a fair few using their final MID bench spot for a DPP rookie looper (given many will be starting Ratugolea at R3). I’m looking at young Blake Drury (102k MID/FWD, NTH) . He probably won’t get a run come Rd 1, but they seem to like him, he might get a game later on and opens up a DPP link to all the DPP MID/FWDs.

Others are looking at DEF/MID floaters because they place more emphasis on opening up that link or Nick Madden (102k RUC/FWD, GWS) to open up swinging Ratugolea or Darcy Cameron across the lines , it’s situational. And of course, you also have the option of not starting a floating donut at all, as typically some of our rookies will be omitted sooner rather than later anyway.

In terms of FWD-eligible rookies, there are quite a few, including:

Harry Sheezel (198k FWD, NTH) comes at a higher price and nominally in a less sexy role (small forward in a side likely to have below average forward entries), but has interestingly seen some time across halfback during the preseason and impressed. He might be viable despite the elevated price, seems to have rock solid JS. I would only select him if really convinced he would have a dual role in the season proper and even then, I might look to stretch to a Sam Flanders / Finn Callaghan in the MIDs in preference (more expensive but more certain roles / clearer upside).

Luke Pedlar (173k FWD, ADE) looks to be given every chance this year and is rated by the club. The role seemed to be a sort of roaming pressure small forward occasionally pushing up field a touch(?). He would likely be slightly slower burn but seems a pretty solid option based on what I've seen.

Mattaes Philippou (167k MID/FWD, STK) – a taller, wiry midfielder who can take a grab, gallop around across half forward / a wing and has impressed all and sundry down Moorabbin-way. He’ll have to perform (and start laying tackles) to keep his spot under the People’s Despot, Ross the Boss.

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A big focus of the Saints' preseason has been the dance of the sugar plum fairies, by the looks. Good to have you back, Rossy!

Alwyn Davey
(117k MID/FWD, ESS) has likewise impressed the Bombers hierarchy with his athleticism and nous around goals, he seems a pretty good chance to get the nod to debut in the season opener. How long he’ll last is uncertain.

Sam Sturt (124k FWD, FRE) is one who’s been in the system a couple of years, but had injury issues and then found it difficult to break back into the seniors despite solid WAFL form,. But he’s been given a chance this preseason and (fwiw) impressed me, so I’ll be starting him if named.

Fergus Greene is a mature ager who has a chance to get some games early, he’s looked bloody good and at 124k, the HAW FWD seems to be likely to be given a chance to be a poor man’s Jack Gunston.

Again, there are others, like Anthony Caminiti (102k FWD, STK), who also showed a bit and is in the frame; we’ve just got to be a bit patient and see who gets a gig in the season opener and adjust from there.

On the RUC front, we might get Lachlan McAndrew (124k RUC/FWD, SYD), but I fear his stay will be fairly short-lived, if he even gets named for Rd 1, as Peanut Ladhams seems likely to return soon and Tom Hickey also will at some stage. Monitor their status – but there’s nothing wrong with going McAndrew on spec, there aren’t many other options.

Edit: Samson Ryan (124k RUC/FWD, RIC) is another who may not start in Rd 1 but is there or thereabouts, so he could work as an early looper with prospects of getting a game and making some money down the line. Looked good in the cameo in the praccy, they like him down Punt Rd way.
 
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Bon Voyage:

Alright, campaigners, that’d be it from me. My shtick has become tired and the vast majority can likely run rings around me. Can’t think of anything overly poignant to offer up, but I hope you all have a great year in SC and otherwise and that the SC gods look down favourably upon you, one and all in this, year 3 AG* in the calendar of our new lord and saviour, Nick Daicos (* AG = After GAJ).
Daics.png
How many Daicoses does it take to tele-impregnate every person of the female (and possibly some of the male) persuasion in the land? Just the one, campaigners.

gaj.png
Hey Gary, can you point us in the direction of the greatest player and SC premo in VFL/AFL history? Aah, over at the AIA Centre? Thanks, maaate.

And if things don’t pan out, don’t throw the toys out of the cot, channel your inner Samuel Beckett and keep cracking in (goes alright, does old Samuel)

…you must go on, I can’t go on, I’ll go on.
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(For the sake of transparency, I'm not starting Baby Daics, was never going to, and am a touch shitty the tag came in the praccy and dropped his ownership. So pencil him in for 115 lol.)
 
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WaynesWorld19 Jiska hope ok so, figured it's getting close enough to the start to post it given it's more general considerations and bla bla, but feel free to hold it back or nuke it entirely if it doesn't float your boat.
 
WaynesWorld19 Jiska hope ok so, figured it's getting close enough to the start to post it given it's more general considerations and bla bla, but feel free to hold it back or nuke it entirely if it doesn't float your boat.
It's good that people will get to digest your posts ....rather than rush to post about upcoming matches

You are indeed an artist ......just like myself (LOL)
 
well done (as usual) gutsroy

Morgan Freeman Applause GIF by The Academy Awards
 
What a way to start gutsroy - you've set the bar way too high!

I feel sorry for the person writing the next round :D

Good luck all campaigners for the season - bounce the ball already, I'm ready for you all
Beast Mode Fighting GIF by Holly Logan
 
gutsroy

I’d thought about $/trade a bit differently.

In the old world:
  • starting squad grows to 11.5m without any trades
  • 30 trades are roughly broken into 20 useful trades and 10 failed or injury trades
  • So the 20 useful trades grow team val by $100k each to 13.5m
If squads now grow by 2.5m to 14m, based off say 25 useful trades, that’s still 100k per trade. But logic should suggest that the marginal $ return from each additional trade is diminishing?

I don’t know. I’m mostly posting this to find out what the cracks in my logic are, if anyone has any feedback.
 

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WaynesWorld19
Couple of really good posts on the SC scoring system, one specific to Laird / Oliver, one general.
Might be something for the general help thread.



 
WaynesWorld19
Couple of really good posts on the SC scoring system, one specific to Laird / Oliver, one general.
Might be something for the general help thread.




I didn't realise giving away a 50 is -8.5. Take note potential JHF owners :moustache:
 
gutsroy

I’d thought about $/trade a bit differently.

In the old world:
  • starting squad grows to 11.5m without any trades
  • 30 trades are roughly broken into 20 useful trades and 10 failed or injury trades
  • So the 20 useful trades grow team val by $100k each to 13.5m
If squads now grow by 2.5m to 14m, based off say 25 useful trades, that’s still 100k per trade. But logic should suggest that the marginal $ return from each additional trade is diminishing?

I don’t know. I’m mostly posting this to find out what the cracks in my logic are, if anyone has any feedback.
It's a difficult one to answer thoroughly.
The idea of factoring the organic growth of the retained starters makes sense.
Would say it would be best to separate out the growth (or loss of value, as the value decay will kick in over time) of the keepers vs the cash cows in that 10-11.5m initial increase.
The cows actually make a little more profit than the rules of thumb factor in because they are compensating the reduction of the premos as part of the total sum.
And the actual value of a trade also varies across the year, it's highest near the start and gradually diminishes throughout the year (cash-wise, points-wise is a little different again).
Need to think about the rest of it a little more, will try to have a look again on the weekend 👍
Others clueier than me will probably be better placed, tbh, I'm getting too slow to do all this finessin'.
 
I didn't realise giving away a 50 is -8.5. Take note potential JHF owners :moustache:
Yeah, I didn't know about that for a while, either, started noticing it last year (forget who it was, but a couple of my blokes gave a few away and you could see live that they were dropping like 10 pts, absolutely savage).
 
WaynesWorld19
Couple of really good posts on the SC scoring system, one specific to Laird / Oliver, one general.
Might be something for the general help thread.




I'm going to have to digest that article over time ....I have added the Laird v Oliver comparison to the Help thread though ....thanks for the info
 
Yeah, I didn't know about that for a while, either, started noticing it last year (forget who it was, but a couple of my blokes gave a few away and you could see live that they were dropping like 10 pts, absolutely savage).
The points for giving away a 50, have been in our point scoring post, for a long time .....no-one reads it though :(

 
It's a difficult one to answer thoroughly.
The idea of factoring the organic growth of the retained starters makes sense.
Would say it would be best to separate out the growth (or loss of value, as the value decay will kick in over time) of the keepers vs the cash cows in that 10-11.5m initial increase.
The cows actually make a little more profit than the rules of thumb factor in because they are compensating the reduction of the premos as part of the total sum.
And the actual value of a trade also varies across the year, it's highest near the start and gradually diminishes throughout the year (cash-wise, points-wise is a little different again).
Need to think about the rest of it a little more, will try to have a look again on the weekend 👍
Others clueier than me will probably be better placed, tbh, I'm getting too slow to do all this finessin'.

Great thoughts mate. Agree with everything there.
 
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