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Jesus Rayzor

Bad day today ?

You cant be serious

Well, on reflection it's entirely possible that the part about us burning our supporters too badly may turn out to be incorrect Iddy, after all, we are the sporting equivalent of cockroaches who have survived multiple holocausts and may well stir ourselves again in enough numbers if we go through another one, but on the rest, yeah mate, dead serious - and having a good day.
 
oh no, there was some fringe christian movement that suggested the world was going to end a few months back, there's one born every day. i'm sure Rayz will be back on his reg dose soon enough:o

There's nothing remotely lunatic or religious about understanding how the laws of physics, global energy stocks, and economics will interact to ensure that a massive global contraction (which is already underway) will make things like the AFL seem pretty trivial to people who are used to having lots of everything and suddenly have a hell of a lot less and no future economic security.

Global GDP and global energy supplies have grown together at practically identical rates since the Industrial Revolution, tell me Bo, what happens when global energy supplies stop growing because we exploited all the easiest and most profitable stuff first and are flat out just maintaining the current level, let alone growing anymore?

And what happens when the style of economy we and most other countries in the world currently have, stop growing?

The GFC and the ongoing crash in housing markets around the world are minor bouts of indigestion compared to the absolute impaling most people are going to get over the next couple of decades.

Becoming informed about what is actually going on in the world and why has never been more important...it would seem you're well behind the 8-ball.
 
Rayzor covered it well.

A clock is stupid analogy. Suggests that a premiership is an imminent thing and is gained by patience as opposed to balls,competence and urgency.
 
There's nothing remotely lunatic or religious about understanding how the laws of physics, global energy stocks, and economics will interact to ensure that a massive global contraction (which is already underway) will make things like the AFL seem pretty trivial to people who are used to having lots of everything and suddenly have a hell of a lot less and no future economic security.

Global GDP and global energy supplies have grown together at practically identical rates since the Industrial Revolution, tell me Bo, what happens when global energy supplies stop growing because we exploited all the easiest and most profitable stuff first and are flat out just maintaining the current level, let alone growing anymore?

And what happens when the style of economy we and most other countries in the world currently have, stop growing?

The GFC and the ongoing crash in housing markets around the world are minor bouts of indigestion compared to the absolute impaling most people are going to get over the next couple of decades.

Becoming informed about what is actually going on in the world and why has never been more important...it would seem you're well behind the 8-ball.

Took a massive turn here in this post but i like it. So i take it a global clock is ticking?
 

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Rayzor covered it well.

A clock is stupid analogy. Suggests that a premiership is an imminent thing and is gained by patience as opposed to balls,competence and urgency.

I thought you liked Mick Malthouse?
 
There's nothing remotely lunatic or religious about understanding how the laws of physics, global energy stocks, and economics will interact to ensure that a massive global contraction (which is already underway) will make things like the AFL seem pretty trivial to people who are used to having lots of everything and suddenly have a hell of a lot less and no future economic security.

Global GDP and global energy supplies have grown together at practically identical rates since the Industrial Revolution, tell me Bo, what happens when global energy supplies stop growing because we exploited all the easiest and most profitable stuff first and are flat out just maintaining the current level, let alone growing anymore?

And what happens when the style of economy we and most other countries in the world currently have, stop growing?

The GFC and the ongoing crash in housing markets around the world are minor bouts of indigestion compared to the absolute impaling most people are going to get over the next couple of decades.

Becoming informed about what is actually going on in the world and why has never been more important...it would seem you're well behind the 8-ball.
holy shit Rayzor!!! What news to wake up to on a Saturday morning.:(
 
8am. Anything between 12 and 3 is real trouble ahead, 3 and 6 is half a rebuild still to go, 6 and 9 on the up but inexperienced, 9 and 12 is top 4 on on the up.

pies-12.00(peaking)
cats-12:30(think they'll just miss out, several players over 30)
saints-1:00(will need to rebuild soon)
dogs-4:00(need some new talent)
giants-5:00(list of unknown young talent)
power-5:30(need a couple of good drafts)
lions-6:00(similar to power)
suns-6:30(very young but on the up)
crows-7:00(another good draft, maybe 2)
tigers-8:00(another good draft this year, get mcintosh, trengrove, trade graham, thursty, delist hislop, miller)
kangaroos-8:30(similar to us, a tiny bit ahead)
demons-9:00(1 year ahead of us, minor changes)
eagles-9:30(new game plan surprised everyone, will get found out and be level with us at 9:00 next year)
sydney-10:00(very good list with great experience but another good draft)
dockers-10:30(injuries killed them this year)
blues-11:00(not far from a premiership)
hawks-11:30(similar to blues, but another missed chance or two may look towards slight rebuild)
 
There's nothing remotely lunatic or religious about understanding how the laws of physics, global energy stocks, and economics will interact to ensure that a massive global contraction (which is already underway) will make things like the AFL seem pretty trivial to people who are used to having lots of everything and suddenly have a hell of a lot less and no future economic security.

Global GDP and global energy supplies have grown together at practically identical rates since the Industrial Revolution, tell me Bo, what happens when global energy supplies stop growing because we exploited all the easiest and most profitable stuff first and are flat out just maintaining the current level, let alone growing anymore?

And what happens when the style of economy we and most other countries in the world currently have, stop growing?

The GFC and the ongoing crash in housing markets around the world are minor bouts of indigestion compared to the absolute impaling most people are going to get over the next couple of decades.

Becoming informed about what is actually going on in the world and why has never been more important...it would seem you're well behind the 8-ball.

I'd suggest mate you are seriously misinformed, my industry supplies heavily into construction market and during record wet winter, we are up expotentially on same time last year...organic growth for the most. Housing developments, civil construction aint slowing in VIC anytime soon ol mate...but hey Mr Know it all, you hang onto your armageddon theory, ultimately we all perish one day:rolleyes:
 
Well, on reflection it's entirely possible that the part about us burning our supporters too badly may turn out to be incorrect Iddy, after all, we are the sporting equivalent of cockroaches who have survived multiple holocausts and may well stir ourselves again in enough numbers if we go through another one, but on the rest, yeah mate, dead serious - and having a good day.

LMAO @ the cockroach analogy ... :thumbsu:

One fact i will put forward is this , 5 years ago Kerry Packer levered from his death-bed $780,000,000 for the TV rights which was maaassive at the time .

5 years on , its a lazy 1.2 billion for 5 more years .

Hardly a shrinking violet is it Ray ?

I think you are confusing certain issues with other issues mate with a very pessimistic view . In tough times , people need certain "distractions" in their lives and footy for most numero uno
 
rayz ol mate i don't know whether you're a Qlder by birth but you remind so fondly of my old northern comrades when I worked with a multi national , rednecks that 'knew everything" but in reality knew nothing, and I mean that in the nicest possible way:o...there's something completely unworldy living in Cloncurry for a lifetime, try arguing with a local
 
8am. Anything between 12 and 3 is real trouble ahead, 3 and 6 is half a rebuild still to go, 6 and 9 on the up but inexperienced, 9 and 12 is top 4 on on the up.

pies-12.00(peaking)
cats-12:30(think they'll just miss out, several players over 30)
saints-1:00(will need to rebuild soon)
dogs-4:00(need some new talent)
giants-5:00(list of unknown young talent)
power-5:30(need a couple of good drafts)
lions-6:00(similar to power)
suns-6:30(very young but on the up)
crows-7:00(another good draft, maybe 2)
tigers-8:00(another good draft this year, get mcintosh, trengrove, trade graham, thursty, delist hislop, miller)
kangaroos-8:30(similar to us, a tiny bit ahead)
demons-9:00(1 year ahead of us, minor changes)
eagles-9:30(new game plan surprised everyone, will get found out and be level with us at 9:00 next year)
sydney-10:00(very good list with great experience but another good draft)
dockers-10:30(injuries killed them this year)
blues-11:00(not far from a premiership)
hawks-11:30(similar to blues, but another missed chance or two may look towards slight rebuild)

How can you possibly care about that shit when the sky is obviously falling?! :eek:
 
8am. Anything between 12 and 3 is real trouble ahead, 3 and 6 is half a rebuild still to go, 6 and 9 on the up but inexperienced, 9 and 12 is top 4 on on the up.

pies-12.00(peaking)
cats-12:30(think they'll just miss out, several players over 30, )
saints-1:00(will need to rebuild soon)
dogs-4:00(need some new talent)
giants-5:00(list of unknown young talent)
power-5:30(need couple of good drafts)
lions-6:00(similar to power)
suns-6:30(very young but on the up)
crows-7:00(another good draft, maybe 2)
tigers-8:00(another good draft this year, get mcintosh, trengrove, trade graham, thursty, delist hislop, miller)
kangaroos-8:30(similar to us, a tiny bit ahead)
demons-9:00(1 year ahead of us, minor changes)
eagles-9:30(new game plan surprised everyone, will get found out and be level with us at 9:00 next year)
sydney-10:00(very good list with great experience but another good draft)
dockers-10:30(injuries killed them this year)
blues-11:00(not far from a premiership)
hawks-11:30(similar to blues, but another missed chance or two may look towards slight rebuild)

I see it more like this

pies-12.00(peaked)
cats-12.45( they'll miss out, on the decline, several players over 30,could be over a decade away)
saints-2:00(will need to rebuild soon and fast serious candidates for the tank or massive list adjustment/stars for depth youth etc..., real anomaly as could be within 4 years or decade away depending on decisions club takes. Many clubs like this)
dogs-2:30(need some new talent, need some more youth, many years away)
giants-6:30(list of unknown young talent, but quality list composition set up)
power-2:30(5+ years of good drafts)
lions-2:00(similar to power)
suns-8:30(very young but on the up, very smart list composition, will win premiership within 8 years question is when and for how long)
crows-1:30(lot of hacks playing at peak, need a rebuild)
tigers-6:00(5 good drafts away good foundation base with young quality, hacks not in critical positions)
kangaroos-4.30(, a tiny bit ahead atm but 6 drafts away at least as too many hacks champions aging)
demons-7:00(2 years ahead of us, structural issues to be addressed)
eagles-5:30(boost this year as having a go and strategic underachievement in previous years, champions aging, lack real quality in youth)
sydney-3.30(handy list but champions aging, many years away)
dockers-4:30(handy young list but champions aging, could be 10 years + away as miss the boat when Pav and Sandy retire and GC,GWS emerge plus us)
blues-6:00(further from a premiership than people think, structural and depth issues, aging stars, could fluke one in next 3 years but unlikely so not a 3.00, didn't respect the clock)
hawks-11:30(probably win next year)
 

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Took a massive turn here in this post but i like it. So i take it a global clock is ticking?

Some have called it 'Peak Everything' cap and I think it's as good a term as any. Richard Heinberg wrote a great book by the same name, pretty good introduction to what is a vast and complex series of intertwined (and crucially important IMO) topics if you're interested.

The global economy effectively runs on oil, coal, gas, uranium, phosphate, various metals, plus the basics ecological inputs like water and arable land for agriculture, fisheries, forests etc.. These are the fundamentals, you can take everything else in economics as fluff when it comes to the big picture. We need to eat, consume energy for various comforts/work and manufacture goods more than anything else which may fleetingly seem important factors in an economy (from tulips and whale oil to high-rise apartments and dot com investments).

In all of the above fundamental areas we are rapidly approaching or have already passed 'peak production' of that particular raw material (or are extracting way more than is sustainable in the case of our fresh water [particularly that from aquifers], soils and oceans). That is to say, we're not running out of oil, uranium or coal anytime soon, in fact, there's never been more available in order to satisfy an ever growing demand (that's why it's called a peak), but the production flow can't possibly be expanded any further - the easy stuff was extracted first (which is why we now have incredibly expensive and highly dangerous oil wells in the middle of oceans etc. instead of the guy with the crow-bar who strikes it lucky) and what is left is harder to get, more expensive, and carries a far greater economic and ecological risk. To paraphrase a good analogy, is it easier and faster (i.e. more return for effort) to eat the first 50% of a yoghurt tub with a spoon, or the last 50%? How increasingly slow and painful (i.e. the return for effort approaches zero) is the last 20%?

Global agriculture is absolutely reliant on non-renewable, mined phosphate. It's in practically everything we eat. We have around 40 years supply left globally (at current rates of usage) and no replacement for it (ironically, our commercially farmed soils are often toxic because we've applied so much, and it's exactly this toxic run-off which is killing the Barrier Reef and many other eco-systems). Without super phosphate delivered in nicely packaged bales to farms on cue at a reasonable price, a good 1/3rd or so of the world would starve and the rest of us would pay many times what we do now for food. Would you rather take your kids to the footy and prop up the corporate AFL model, or give them fruit, vegetables and meat a few times a week and keep a roof over their heads? Rhetorical question... ;)

We're staring the last 50% (or less) of all these key resources in the face, but sadly, our economic models and our 10% strike rate 'nobody saw the GFC coming' :rolleyes: TV economists are plugged into a system of thinking which doesn't begin to account for this being a finite world with a finite amount of resources. In their fantasy world based solely on theory, if the market needs more, somebody finds a way to supply more, if that way happen to costs more then the price rises and things eventually find their equilibrium.

Sooner or later (very much sooner in this case), no amount of money can extract something faster to satiate demand, or make more non-renewable resources magically appear out of thin air (or food appear out of toxic, overused soil and water as the case is), simply because 'the market' demands it.

Every single credit loan in the world is offered based on the assumption that the economy is going to grow (increase in value) and so are wages, real estate etc.; if these things don't grow, then nobody can skim an increasingly greater share off the top and then all the artificial constructs - from stock market dividends to the interest charged on your mortgage - cease to exist. No economy can grow without 'more everything' to supply an ever growing number of people - demands which eventually one country, or one planet, with a finite amount of resources available, can't keep up with. The same simple physics which are behind the collapse of every great civilisation, except this time it's global and we've depleted the planet's most choice resources on a historically unprecedented scale - wasted them on some unbelievably dumb, pointless and trivial things.

You certainly won't find this information on the Channel 7 news or A Current Affair, but from the U.S. military to an overwhelming number of energy experts (resource related scientists to even former and current 'oil men'), there is a massive consensus on these matters in academic circles and you'll find reports and studies from the top level of all the world's important organisations which either confirm what I'm saying, or are very obviously failing to hide it.

I'm not out to convince anyone, I'm ambivalent, it's not like I have something to gain from anything I write here. The OP question strayed into the territory and I felt in the mood to answer it fully.

To finish on a couple of football notes, we won't be any the poorer for an eventual return to suburban style footy, both it and the hyper-drive business of AFL have their good and their bad points.

And if I sometimes seem a bit fanatical about us doing our utmost to get 80%+ right as a football club (rather than 50% or less and a never ending cascade of very hard to forgive mistakes from people who should know better), it's because I'd love little more than for Richmond to sneak a flag while there's still the tiniest of chances to do so. ;)
 
Geez Rayzor you're very passionate about this stuff aren't you?
But as Darryl Kerrigan would say "you've got to have a passion".
It's a wonder you have the time or bother to be so passionate about the Tigers. It would almost seem forlorn!
 
8am. Anything between 12 and 3 is real trouble ahead, 3 and 6 is half a rebuild still to go, 6 and 9 on the up but inexperienced, 9 and 12 is top 4 on on the up.

pies-12.00(peaking)
cats-12:30(think they'll just miss out, several players over 30)
saints-1:00(will need to rebuild soon)
dogs-4:00(need some new talent)
giants-5:00(list of unknown young talent)
power-5:30(need a couple of good drafts)
lions-6:00(similar to power)
suns-6:30(very young but on the up)
crows-7:00(another good draft, maybe 2)
tigers-8:00(another good draft this year, get mcintosh, trengrove, trade graham, thursty, delist hislop, miller)
kangaroos-8:30(similar to us, a tiny bit ahead)
demons-9:00(1 year ahead of us, minor changes)
eagles-9:30(new game plan surprised everyone, will get found out and be level with us at 9:00 next year)
sydney-10:00(very good list with great experience but another good draft)
dockers-10:30(injuries killed them this year)
blues-11:00(not far from a premiership)
hawks-11:30(similar to blues, but another missed chance or two may look towards slight rebuild)

Interesting.

Is there any reason you left the Bombers out?
 
Razor - it is clear you're articulate and switched on. FWIW your spot on with what you wrote as well. The next disposable generation will be learning some hard truths at some stage. I have actually read about some of which you have written about. I particulary loved the yogurt analogy. Awesome posting. I for one enjoyed it.
 

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Some have called it 'Peak Everything' cap and I think it's as good a term as any. Richard Heinberg wrote a great book by the same name, pretty good introduction to what is a vast and complex series of intertwined (and crucially important IMO) topics if you're interested.

The global economy effectively runs on oil, coal, gas, uranium, phosphate, various metals, plus the basics ecological inputs like water and arable land for agriculture, fisheries, forests etc.. These are the fundamentals, you can take everything else in economics as fluff when it comes to the big picture. We need to eat, consume energy for various comforts/work and manufacture goods more than anything else which may fleetingly seem important factors in an economy (from tulips and whale oil to high-rise apartments and dot com investments).

In all of the above fundamental areas we are rapidly approaching or have already passed 'peak production' of that particular raw material (or are extracting way more than is sustainable in the case of our fresh water [particularly that from aquifers], soils and oceans). That is to say, we're not running out of oil, uranium or coal anytime soon, in fact, there's never been more available in order to satisfy an ever growing demand (that's why it's called a peak), but the production flow can't possibly be expanded any further - the easy stuff was extracted first (which is why we now have incredibly expensive and highly dangerous oil wells in the middle of oceans etc. instead of the guy with the crow-bar who strikes it lucky) and what is left is harder to get, more expensive, and carries a far greater economic and ecological risk. To paraphrase a good analogy, is it easier and faster (i.e. more return for effort) to eat the first 50% of a yoghurt tub with a spoon, or the last 50%? How increasingly slow and painful (i.e. the return for effort approaches zero) is the last 20%?

Global agriculture is absolutely reliant on non-renewable, mined phosphate. It's in practically everything we eat. We have around 40 years supply left globally (at current rates of usage) and no replacement for it (ironically, our commercially farmed soils are often toxic because we've applied so much, and it's exactly this toxic run-off which is killing the Barrier Reef and many other eco-systems). Without super phosphate delivered in nicely packaged bales to farms on cue at a reasonable price, a good 1/3rd or so of the world would starve and the rest of us would pay many times what we do now for food. Would you rather take your kids to the footy and prop up the corporate AFL model, or give them fruit, vegetables and meat a few times a week and keep a roof over their heads? Rhetorical question... ;)

We're staring the last 50% (or less) of all these key resources in the face, but sadly, our economic models and our 10% strike rate 'nobody saw the GFC coming' :rolleyes: TV economists are plugged into a system of thinking which doesn't begin to account for this being a finite world with a finite amount of resources. In their fantasy world based solely on theory, if the market needs more, somebody finds a way to supply more, if that way happen to costs more then the price rises and things eventually find their equilibrium.

Sooner or later (very much sooner in this case), no amount of money can extract something faster to satiate demand, or make more non-renewable resources magically appear out of thin air (or food appear out of toxic, overused soil and water as the case is), simply because 'the market' demands it.

Every single credit loan in the world is offered based on the assumption that the economy is going to grow (increase in value) and so are wages, real estate etc.; if these things don't grow, then nobody can skim an increasingly greater share off the top and then all the artificial constructs - from stock market dividends to the interest charged on your mortgage - cease to exist. No economy can grow without 'more everything' to supply an ever growing number of people - demands which eventually one country, or one planet, with a finite amount of resources available, can't keep up with. The same simple physics which are behind the collapse of every great civilisation, except this time it's global and we've depleted the planet's most choice resources on a historically unprecedented scale - wasted them on some unbelievably dumb, pointless and trivial things.

You certainly won't find this information on the Channel 7 news or A Current Affair, but from the U.S. military to an overwhelming number of energy experts (resource related scientists to even former and current 'oil men'), there is a massive consensus on these matters in academic circles and you'll find reports and studies from the top level of all the world's important organisations which either confirm what I'm saying, or are very obviously failing to hide it.

I'm not out to convince anyone, I'm ambivalent, it's not like I have something to gain from anything I write here. The OP question strayed into the territory and I felt in the mood to answer it fully.

To finish on a couple of football notes, we won't be any the poorer for an eventual return to suburban style footy, both it and the hyper-drive business of AFL have their good and their bad points.

And if I sometimes seem a bit fanatical about us doing our utmost to get 80%+ right as a football club (rather than 50% or less and a never ending cascade of very hard to forgive mistakes from people who should know better), it's because I'd love little more than for Richmond to sneak a flag while there's still the tiniest of chances to do so. ;)

Me too, i am with you on that one... :thumbsu: ...

Razor you may also care to mention the decline and degradation in the worlds supply of fresh drinking water...

This years high Rainfall in Victoria is an aberration...a blip...and is a direct result of global waring...rising high temperatures...

This has seen the polar regions starting to melt and reduce in size and cover...this years Victorian cold winter temperatures and high rainfalls can be attributed to the release of cold air as whats left of the Ice melts and drifts through Sthrn Victoria...when the polar caps have been reduced to the size of a white bottle top...as it will in time...the likelihood of further future cold and wet winters will diminish...

2009/10 dry hot summers which saw the burning of Victoria will seem like a mild summers day by comparison when the ice finishes melting and the air temperatures begin to start to climb again...you cannot ignore physics...

2009/10 gave us all a fore taste of what to expect...

Barcelona in Spain is importing container ships of fresh drinking water from France...it relies on bottled water to get through summer now...that will become the norm for Sthrn europe...

Uk and Russia experiencing droughts...

Libya is running out of drinking water...

Sthrn USA is frying as well and the Rio grande is ankle high during summer...

China is going to spend what Greece owes in Debt...close to $4oo billion on cleaning up, monitoring water use along its western rivers...

But you would not hear about that in our media outlets...you would not know that unless you read foreign news outlets...

We live in isolation here in Oz and have no idea as to how hard its going to be...and get...

And what about the creation of the new plastic continent in the middle of the pacific..and its effect on marine life...sea water temperatures...

Over fishing our marine stocks...Tuna anyone?!?!..

Dead pockets of Ocean from over pollution..

And once countries start to build more desal plants...the salt extracted to make drinking palatable water will be handy for our hamburgers and chips!...

Will we have time to win one more Premiership for the tigers Razor?!?!?!...thats the burning question... :p ...
 
That's why the Desal plant in Wonthaggi is a must (as much as it's an operational joke at the mo). The plant is actually 15 years behind when it should have been built. Melbourne are currently trying to pipe Gippslands water storage area's. I'd rather see you Melbournians enjoy the Desal water myself than see our resource pissed away.
 
That's why the Desal plant in Wonthaggi is a must (as much as it's an operational joke at the mo). The plant is actually 15 years behind when it should have been built. Melbourne are currently trying to pipe Gippslands water storage area's. I'd rather see you Melbournians enjoy the Desal water myself than see our resource pissed away.

Yes and its built in a great spot as well...

Right down on the coastline open to the sea...

SSSS$$$$hhh...dont mention rising sea levels to anyone cos their all too busy making money building white elephant$... :eek: ...
 
Mate if you could only hear the stories i'm hearing about that joint. It's a joke, contractors have taken the govt (particulary the Labor govt) to the cleaners.
 
That's why the Desal plant in Wonthaggi is a must (as much as it's an operational joke at the mo). The plant is actually 15 years behind when it should have been built. Melbourne are currently trying to pipe Gippslands water storage area's. I'd rather see you Melbournians enjoy the Desal water myself than see our resource pissed away.

It gets worse. There is a worrying condom shortage aswell,particularly in the Essendon,strathmore area.For those at the game last night it was evident the magnitude of this evergrowing natural disaster.
Never before gave so many imbeciles gathered in one area.
It's alarming when they open their mouths particularly in regards to umpiring decisions.It's a known fact that these poor souls are missing the part of their brain that is able to interpret the holding the ball rule.

It's not their fault either that they seem stuck on autoplay "ball, ohhhhh,hasn't got it ohhhhh,what for ohhhhh,ballll ohhhhh,in his back ohhhhh. Booooooooo, yyyyyyeeeasssssss bout time". It's the infected sperm and lack of condoms.perhaps the infection is due to poor drinking water?

Their penchant for sitting there mumbling like dills and sudden explosion into arrogant twats within a 10 minute window is extraordinary also.
 

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