The Coaching Bounce - Stats and Anomalies

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Feel free to correct errors or omissions. I tried my best.

I touched on this in the latest AFL board podcast located here:
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/messenger-comes-out-to-plaaaaaaay-the-official-bigfooty-podcast-episode-10.1018319/#post-29164782

A bounce, a boost, whatever you want to call it .... it's a well held notion that teams do better when they change coaches before the end of a season.

I understand the AFL site went way back in time in a recent article but I looked at an arbitrary period of 1980 onwards, just to capture comparisons as we are in the 4th decade and it encompasses a gradual change towards the national competition we now see.

1980s





First up games after coaching change = 7 wins, 1 draw, 1 losses

Outgoing coach winning percentage = 23.7%
Caretaker coach winning percentage = 42.0%

1990s




First up games after coaching change = 2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses

Outgoing coach winning percentage = 17.8%
Caretaker coach winning percentage = 29.7%

2000s




First up games after coaching change = 6 wins, 5 losses

Outgoing coach winning percentage = 25.1%
Caretaker coach winning percentage = 34.4%

2010s




First up games after coaching change = 2 wins, 4 losses

Outgoing coach winning percentage = 31.4%
Caretaker coach winning percentage = 41.0%

Overall

Out of 34 coaching changes before the end of the season since 1980, 17 first up games were wins, 2 were draws and 15 were losses.

26 of the 34 caretaker coaches had a better winning percentage for the season than the coaches they replaced.

Interesting facts and stats

• Terry Wallace and Rodney Eade failed to see out their final seasons in both of their two coaching stints. Robert Walls failed to see out his final season in two of his four coaching stints.
• Alex Jesaulenko came in as a caretaker coach in all three of his coaching stints, the first being in 1978.
• In 1980 St Kilda drew their first game after the coaching change and won their second game.
• In 1998 Brisbane drew their first game and won their second and third games, and then won only one of their last eight games.
• Melbourne's last 4 full time coaches have failed to see out their last season.
• In 1981 Blight was captain-coach of North. He was sacked as coach but kept playing, kicking 11 goals in his first match under Cable.
• In 1982 Royce Hart was demoted to thirds coach instead of being sacked in order to avoid a payout stipulation in his contract. Hart left the club instead.

Observations

There were 8 coaching changes before the end of the season in the 80s, 7 in the 90s, 11 in the 00s and 6 in the 10s in less than four seasons.

It seems the rate is climbing, probably due to the fact the game is now a business and the pressure from supporters, sponsors and the media is growing. Being seen to be doing something in order to generate more excitement for the next year seems to be the prevailing thought process.

 

[The_Wookie]

top work ODN

 

[Big Blood]

Fascinating. Should be required reading for all club boards.

 

[Ron The Bear]

A few minor notes on coaches in this period.

1981 - Barry Cable replaced Malcolm Blight after R17
1981 - Frank Goode stood in for Royce Hart R3
1982 - Ian Hampshire replaced Royce Hart after R10
1984 - Tony Franklin was temporary coach in R14 between Quade & Hammond
1987 - Allan Davis stood in for Darrel Baldock after R18
1993 - Brett Scott was temporary coach in R5-6 between Buckenara & Barassi
2001 - Chris Connolly stood in for Schwab R17
2005 - John Blakey stood in for Leigh Matthews R18
2006 - Gary O'Donnell stood in for Kevin Sheedy R16 (I believe Sheedy is officially credited with this match, even though he wasn't present at the game)
2013 - Alan Richardson stood in for Ken Hinkley R6

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Some additions to be made by the looks. I won't add the stand-ins. Thanks for that.

 

[Eshay187]

I don't expect you to do this at all, but would be interesting to see the relative ladder position of the teams played against for both the first game of the new coach as well as the rest of the season.

Regardless, given that most of these teams are bottom 4 the fact that the "1st game with new coach" win percentage is 50% is surely statistically significant.

 

[Ron The Bear]

First game for all mid-season changes:

Year|Rd|Club|Coach|Status|Opp|Pos|Result|Mgn
\1980|3|St|Jesaulenko, Alex|caretaker|Ri|6th|D|0
\1981|3|WB|Goode, Frank|stand-in|Me|10th|L|1
\1981|17|NM|Cable, Barry|caretaker|WB|11th|W|9
\1982|11|WB|Hampshire, Ian|caretaker|Fi|6th|L|52
\1982|11|Co|Erwin, Mick|caretaker|St|10th|W|36
\1984|5|St|Gellie, Graeme|caretaker|Ge|4th|L|31
\1984|14|Sy|Franklin, Tony|interim|Co|5th|L|31
\1984|15|Sy|Hammond, Bob A.|caretaker|Fi|10th|W|28
\1986|4|Co|Matthews, Leigh|caretaker|Ge|12th|W|45
\1987|19|St|Davis, Allan|stand-in|WB|5th|W|3
\1989|11|Ca|Jesaulenko, Alex|caretaker|Sy|8th|W|28
\1989|16|Br|Feltham, Paul|caretaker|St|10th|W|4
\1993|5|Sy|Scott, Brett|interim|Fi|11th|L|93
\1993|7|Sy|Barassi, Ron D.|caretaker|Ca|9th|L|44
\1994|3|WB|Joyce, Alan|caretaker|Co|3rd|L|1
\1995|20|Fi|McConnell, Alan|caretaker|Ge|2nd|L|41
\1996|13|WB|Wallace, Terry|caretaker|WC|6th|L|12
\1996|15|Fi|McConnell, Alan|caretaker|WC|3rd|L|68
\1997|10|Me|Hutchison, Greg|caretaker|Ri|13th|W|25
\1997|18|Ri|Gieschen, Jeff|caretaker|WB|6th|W|15
\1998|12|Br|Merrett, Roger|caretaker|PA|11th|D|0
\2001|10|Fr|Allan, Ben|caretaker|Ri|7th|L|38
\2001|16|St|Thomas, Grant|caretaker|WB|11th|L|34
\2001|17|Ha|Connolly, Chris|stand-in|Ca|4th|W|3
\2002|13|Sy|Roos, Paul|caretaker|Fr|11th|W|77
\2002|22|WB|Rohde, Peter|caretaker|Co|4th|W|41
\2004|14|Ad|Craig, Neil|caretaker|Me|2nd|W|72
\2004|18|Ha|McDonald, Donald|caretaker|Me|4th|L|44
\2005|18|Br|Blakey, John|stand-in|WB|12th|L|28
\2006|16|Es|O'Donnell, Gary|stand-in|Ca|15th|D|0
\2007|14|Me|Riley, Mark|caretaker|Ca|14th|W|23
\2007|16|Fr|Harvey, Mark|caretaker|Ad|9th|W|25
\2007|17|Ca|Ratten, Brett|caretaker|St|11th|L|10
\2009|12|Ri|Rawlings, Jade|caretaker|WC|13th|W|15
\2009|13|NM|Crocker, Darren|caretaker|WB|3rd|L|22
\2010|16|PA|Primus, Matthew|caretaker|WB|5th|L|36
\2011|19|Ad|Bickley, Mark|caretaker|PA|17th|W|32
\2011|20|Me|Viney, Todd|caretaker|Ca|4th|L|76
\2011|22|WB|Williams, Paul|caretaker|PA|17th|W|60
\2012|20|PA|Hocking, Garry|caretaker|Ha|4th|L|72
\2013|6|PA|Richardson, Alan R.|stand-in|NM|13th|L|10
\2013|13|Me|Craig, Neil|caretaker|St|16th|L|35

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

A few minor notes on coaches in this period.

1981 - Barry Cable replaced Malcolm Blight after R17
1981 - Frank Goode stood in for Royce Hart R3
1982 - Ian Hampshire replaced Royce Hart after R10
1984 - Tony Franklin was temporary coach in R14 between Quade & Hammond
1987 - Allan Davis stood in for Darrel Baldock after R18
1993 - Brett Scott was temporary coach in R5-6 between Buckenara & Barassi
2001 - Chris Connolly stood in for Schwab R17
2005 - John Blakey stood in for Leigh Matthews R18
2006 - Gary O'Donnell stood in for Kevin Sheedy R16 (I believe Sheedy is officially credited with this match, even though he wasn't present at the game)
2013 - Alan Richardson stood in for Ken Hinkley R6

Adding in Cable for Blight, Hampshire for Hart as genuine coaching bump potential. Leaving out the stand-in coaches as they don't bring a coaching bump. Adding in Tony Scott. Not adding in Tony Franklin as Quade was hospitalised as a result of his stoush with Barry Round, and then resigned, with Hammond appointed. I'm assuming Franklin coached one match in the interim while this decision was being made.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Added Blight/Cable, Hart/Hampshire and Scott as a caretaker with Barassi.

Amended Jezza anomaly.

Added Melbourne fact - last four full time coaches haven't seen out the season.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Quade article here. Was still coach in the round Franklin took over so no bump in the minds of the players. Read earlier that Quade was in hospital and had a stoush with Round. It apparent wasn't Round that put him in hospital. Have a vague recollection of the time but didn't mean to dob poor Barry in.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Interesting reading ODN.

I wonder if that also translates to it being a good idea to turn over coaches in general? I've found it interesting to contrast the Man U / Arsenal way of doing things (keep a coach long term to maintain stability) versus the Chealsea way of doing things (sack the coach every year and people on their toes)

 

[gazzathegreat]

great read mate. Better than half the junk written by the media "journos" in the papers.

 

[Baldur]

Very interesting. So it appears that there is a bounce. The next question would be why?

 

[Chief]

Very interesting. So it appears that there is a bounce. The next question would be why?

That's my question - do these guys suddenly remember how to play football?

And... are 1/3 of coaches sacked for no reason? Would those teams improve of their own accord?

 

[Baldur]

That's my question - do these guys suddenly remember how to play football?

And... are 1/3 of coaches sacked for no reason? Would those teams improve of their own accord?

I think what happens is that after enough losses the players stop believing the coach when he says that things will turn around. They stop believing in him and his game plan. The little things begin to drop off, the 1% first, then they stop even trying. Why bother when it is not going to make any difference. That is how Melbourne was playing. You could sense that the players simply did not believe they could win.

The new coach comes in, the players begin to believe they can win again. That old coach who had no idea is gone. This new guy is just what we need they think. Also the opposing teams no longer know what game plan to expect, they get taken by surprise. Result is a boost in wins.