The Coming (R)evolution

[Vader]

This will be Neil Craig's 4th drafting & trading period since taking over as coach of the Crows. To date it has been a relatively easy ride. He's done minimal trading, Stenglein-Thompson being the only trade. Most of the delistings (Ben Hart aside) have been obvious, cutting the dead wood from the list and retaining those players who were even on the fringe of the regular team.

I believe he has done a good job of drafting youngsters onto our list, though he has not done such a great job of bringing them into the senior side. In terms of youngsters, we are in much better shape than when Ayres departed. In terms of our senior players, things are now looking dire - our list is significantly older on average than it was when Craig took over, and the regular members of the senior team are on average 2 years older than the comparable 2005 team.

In 2006, Van Berlo was the only youngster to become a regular member of the team.
In 2007, Knights, Porplyzia and a young ruckman (position split between Maric & Griffin) became permanent members.

There were a number of other youngsters who got games - Campbell got 1, Vince has a total of 10 (over 2 years), Douglas (16 games) but they are certainly not permanent fixtures. These games were more due to injuries to regular members of the side.

The time is now upon us though, where we need to be preparing for massive changes to our senior team - due to the inevitable retirements of many of our senior players.

This year we have already lost Roo - though he played so rarely in 2007 that he could hardly be considered a permanent member of the team this year. Perrie is also likely to depart, replaced in the side by Gill (at 24 not exactly a youngster). I would also expect Bode to depart this year (his position already filled by Porplyzia). Hudson will also be gone (albeit traded) - his position filled in 2008 by a returning Biglands.

I have done some projections, regarding expected retirement (or delisting) dates for other senior members of our team:
2008: Torney, Edwards, Biglands, Massie, Burton, Doughty
2009: McLeod, Goodwin, Welsh, Shirley, Bassett

So, we are looking at having to replace at least 11 members of our regular team in the next 2 years. This is NOT your regular turnover, which for the AFC is normally 5-6 players per year total, including those who have been judged as not able to make the grade. This is almost half our senior team, before factoring in possible trades like Mattner.

Prepare yourselves for a bumpy ride folks, because Neil Craig's ability to call upon the same group of backboners whenever someone gets injured is about to end. We are going to have to introduce a minimum of 4-5 regular players to our senior team each year, an increase from 1-3 per year which we have seen in the past. It's going to be the biggest shake-up of Adelaide's team since Blight's cleanout at the end of 1996.

 

[bus24]

Excellent post.

Great read

 

[macca23]

Quality post as always Vader.

Neil Craig, the recruitment team and the development boys face their greatest test in the next two years as you've so rightly pointed out.

All the more reason to get a very good match-day strategist into the coaching box, as we will not be able to afford losing games we should have won as has been the case in the past 3 years.

 

[crowugoodthing]

Nice post.

Have to disagree with you about Bode. Porplyzia is not a rover and thus hasn't taken his spot! He plays differently as a lead up small, and can not chase and put pressure on that is required (this is my only critism or Porps game mind you). Imagine the foward pressure we would have with a fit Bode, Gill & Welsh.

 

[noddy]

Quality post as always Vader.

Neil Craig, the recruitment team and the development boys face their greatest test in the next two years as you've so rightly pointed out.

All the more reason to get a very good match-day strategist into the coaching box, as we will not be able to afford losing games we should have won as has been the case in the past 3 years.

macca it's all well & good to recruit someone to sit along side Craigy on match day as a strategist "but" will he accept it & will he take heed during a game ??

 

[Jars458]

I have done some projections, regarding expected retirement (or delisting) dates for other senior members of our team:
2008: Torney, Edwards, Biglands, Massie, Burton, Doughty
2009: McLeod, Goodwin, Welsh, Shirley, Bassett

A good post. I think though that Massie Burton and Doughty would go on for at least one more yaer than you say.

Same goes for McLeod and Shirley on your second list and potentially Goodwin also.

Having sadi that, time does catch up with players quickly.

Whilst the likes of Massie doesn't appear a vital team player at the moment, when the superstars retire we will need his type for team stability and experience.

 

[ruscy002]

macca it's all well & good to recruit someone to sit along side Craigy on match day as a strategist "but" will he accept it & will he take heed during a game ??

Good point. I think he's open enough to the idea, but that doesn't mean that come gameday he wont need to be kicked out of the coaches box at times to make some decisions

I'm a huge fan of this match day strategist idea for the purpose of Adelaide getting over the line in the close ones and finals. Throw the entire club's revenue at blighty to get him back to do it, maybe buy him a golf course too

 

[fightingdreamer88]

Neil Craig can't blood youngsters when they are ****ing injured. MacKay, Tippett and others would have been right in the mix for selection if they were fit, he said it himself. You can't knock him for that ****. It's like when some moron came on here criticizing Craig for taking so long to replace Perrie with Gill. Well WTF you ****ing ****wit!! Gill was injured all season until a few weeks prior to his debut (during which he regained match fitness)!

Provided Pfeiffer, Campbell, Griffin, Maric, Tippett, Douglas, Vince and co. all stay healthy they will all play for the crows in 2008. Sellar might too, if he comes along.

 

[ruscy002]

Neil Craig can't blood youngsters when they are ****ing injured. MacKay, Tippett and others would have been right in the mix for selection if they were fit, he said it himself. You can't knock him for that ****. It's like when some moron came on here criticizing Craig for taking so long to replace Perrie with Gill. Well WTF you ****ing ****wit!! Gill was injured all season until a few weeks prior to his debut (during which he regained match fitness)!

Provided Pfeiffer, Campbell, Griffin, Maric, Tippett, Douglas, Vince and co. all stay healthy they will all play for the crows in 2008. Sellar might too, if he comes along.

Geez settle down. You make a good point but bringing it across in that manner doesn't help.

Tippett wasn't really in the mix for a debut this year, he's a project player and way too raw for an AFL debut until 08. But MacKay would've got a game for sure, John Reid loves this boy and didn't mind saying so on KG and Cornsey one night!

Pfeiffer is an interesting one, like the boy but not sure he'll survive the delistings. Then again, it seems so many are on a knife's edge, there's a large group for whom its too bloody hard to tell who'll stay and who'll go.

 

[CarnCrows]

Pfeiffer is an interesting one, like the boy but not sure he'll survive the delistings. Then again, it seems so many are on a knife's edge, there's a large group for whom its too bloody hard to tell who'll stay and who'll go.

Pfeiffer will not be delisted. He, like many, could be traded, but not delisted.

Of the new breed to play more consistent next year I am guessing the following:
Douglas
Griff
Maric
MacKay
Vince

With cameos from:
Tippett
Seller
Pfieffer

I dont expect wholesale changes. The older in's of Bode, Hentchel, Biglands & Bassett will already start putting a squeeze into the side.

 

[-VC-]

Neil Craig can't blood youngsters when they are ****ing injured. MacKay, Tippett and others would have been right in the mix for selection if they were fit, he said it himself. You can't knock him for that ****. It's like when some moron came on here criticizing Craig for taking so long to replace Perrie with Gill. Well WTF you ****ing ****wit!! Gill was injured all season until a few weeks prior to his debut (during which he regained match fitness)!

Provided Pfeiffer, Campbell, Griffin, Maric, Tippett, Douglas, Vince and co. all stay healthy they will all play for the crows in 2008. Sellar might too, if he comes along.

What the hell is your problem mate?

Sure, MacKay and Tippett were LTI's but what's with your tirade of abuse directed towards one of the most thought out and cohesive threads we've seen on this board for some time? You've gone out with this absolute tongue lashing, but appear to have completely missed the point of the thread.

The issue isn't who Craig could have played in 2007. The issue is that it will be forced upon us to not only play more kids than we normally do, but will be forced to rely upon young kids more than we normally do. In a couple of years our midfield will be led by Thompson, Reilly, Knights and van Berlo. Personally I think NC has done a fantastic job blooding these guys, but it's going to be a huge ask for them to replace Goodwin, Edwards and McLeod (I know he hasn't played in the midfield for years but that more illustrates his irreplacability). Those four young guys I mentioned are all good AFL players. For us to enjoy the same success as we have in recent years at least two of them will need to become elite AFL players.

Then it stems from there, we need guys to replace those young guys that have moved into the elite category. Let's use Douglas and Vince as an example. They need to play at the level that say Reilly and Knights are now.

I'm not entirely sure Vader was having a crack at NC for his list management in the past. Sure, perhaps he could have given some kids a bit more exposure now and then but from reading the original post I got a little bit of that vibe and a lot more from the point that we have a very tough road ahead of us in replacing these elite players. It requires a step up from every level of experience and age in our playing group.

We have been lucky to have so many great players through the late 90s and early 2000s but it is now coming to an end for all of them. The harsh reality is that there will be massive holes to fill when they do leave. IMO, Craigy has done a good job of minimising the roles Goodwin and Edwards play in our midfield so this will soften the blow when they do retire because other blokes have had quality time in the guts to take over from their role, but it remains to be seen if they can take over at the same elite level.

 

[Ozzie]

Neil Craig can't blood youngsters when they are ****ing injured. MacKay, Tippett and others would have been right in the mix for selection if they were fit, he said it himself. You can't knock him for that ****. It's like when some moron came on here criticizing Craig for taking so long to replace Perrie with Gill. Well WTF you ****ing ****wit!! Gill was injured all season until a few weeks prior to his debut (during which he regained match fitness)!

Provided Pfeiffer, Campbell, Griffin, Maric, Tippett, Douglas, Vince and co. all stay healthy they will all play for the crows in 2008. Sellar might too, if he comes along.

You are 100% correct in what you say and I fail to see where you are disagreeing with the thrust of this thread as has been implied. Some of the idiotic stuff that gets posted on this board makes me want to swear A LOT as well. Sometimes I am sure people have no idea of what is happening with the players on our list. By that I mean, no idea if they are injured,i f so how badly? Are they in form in the SANFL? Are they up to the required AFL standard at this point of time? No all they do is shoot from the hip and start the inane mutters of play this one, do this, do that, with no regard for the real situation. Makes my blood boil!

 

[Mismatched]

What the hell is your problem mate?

Sure, MacKay and Tippett were LTI's but what's with your tirade of abuse directed towards one of the most thought out and cohesive threads we've seen on this board for some time? You've gone out with this absolute tongue lashing, but appear to have completely missed the point of the thread.

The issue isn't who Craig could have played in 2007. The issue is that it will be forced upon us to not only play more kids than we normally do, but will be forced to rely upon young kids more than we normally do. In a couple of years our midfield will be led by Thompson, Reilly, Knights and van Berlo. Personally I think NC has done a fantastic job blooding these guys, but it's going to be a huge ask for them to replace Goodwin, Edwards and McLeod (I know he hasn't played in the midfield for years but that more illustrates his irreplacability). Those four young guys I mentioned are all good AFL players. For us to enjoy the same success as we have in recent years at least two of them will need to become elite AFL players.

Then it stems from there, we need guys to replace those young guys that have moved into the elite category. Let's use Douglas and Vince as an example. They need to play at the level that say Reilly and Knights are now.

I'm not entirely sure Vader was having a crack at NC for his list management in the past. Sure, perhaps he could have given some kids a bit more exposure now and then but from reading the original post I got a little bit of that vibe and a lot more from the point that we have a very tough road ahead of us in replacing these elite players. It requires a step up from every level of experience and age in our playing group.

We have been lucky to have so many great players through the late 90s and early 2000s but it is now coming to an end for all of them. The harsh reality is that there will be massive holes to fill when they do leave. IMO, Craigy has done a good job of minimising the roles Goodwin and Edwards play in our midfield so this will soften the blow when they do retire because other blokes have had quality time in the guts to take over from their role, but it remains to be seen if they can take over at the same elite level.

Agree with you here mate, I am not too worried about the future, the succession plan is in place and I think it could turn out to be a master stroke by Craig, the players are there, they will get more and more game time over the next year or so and hopefully be ready to take over by the time Goodwin, Edwards, Mcleod and Basset decide to hang up the boots, I can't wait to see some of these young guns actually strut their stuff.

 

[macca 23]

What Will End Of 2008 Bring?

By the end of the 2008 season will there be any important players heading for retirement if so who do u think.

 

[mymansyd]

Re: What Will End Of 2008 Bring?

I'd expect that 2008 will be the last season for Torney, Bassett, Biglands and maybe Burton.

Edwards, Goodwin and McLeod are still likely to play on in 2009.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

In 2006, Van Berlo was the only youngster to become a regular member of the team.
In 2007, Knights, Porplyzia and a young ruckman (position split between Maric & Griffin) became permanent members.

I have been critical at times that Craig has not given our younger players enough opportunity to play at senior level. It has been frustrating to see talented players running around in the SANFL when there are solid, mid-range blokes playing for the Crows team who perform their role but are never going to have much of an impact as to whether or not we win games. Having said that however, the five players you have listed above are genuine quality and will be 200 game players. I'm sure Craig would argue that making these blokes earn their position has aided their development and been a factor in their progress.

I have done some projections, regarding expected retirement (or delisting) dates for other senior members of our team:
2008: Torney, Edwards, Biglands, Massie, Burton, Doughty
2009: McLeod, Goodwin, Welsh, Shirley, Bassett

So, we are looking at having to replace at least 11 members of our regular team in the next 2 years. This is NOT your regular turnover, which for the AFC is normally 5-6 players per year total, including those who have been judged as not able to make the grade. This is almost half our senior team, before factoring in possible trades like Mattner.

It is unthinkable now for us to lose these players. They're half our team, they're some of our best players, blah blah blah. The landscape will change however. Over the next 24 months these players will play a lessening role and will have a lessening impact. That is inevitable. No one can go on forever having the same impact they did in their prime and getting on the park every week.

Are we going to miss Ricciuto's on-field output next season? I would say no because his body has allowed him to do stuff all for us this season. After the 2005 season if we'd have been told Ricciuto will hang up the boots after 2007 we'd have been in an absolute panic. Our gun, our best player, whatever are we going to do? Things change immensely in 2 years.

I'm not saying that losing these players will have no impact, just that it is easy to over-estimate any potential negative impact because these players brilliant performances are fresh in our minds.

 

[PsyCrow23]

Great post, however I recon the only retirement/delistings in the next 2 seasons from that lot will only be, Goodwin, Welsh, Massie, Biglands, Torney ('08), Bassett ('09)

McLeod & Edwards will remain until atleast 2010 they are evergreens like Harvey, well im hoping anyway

 

[PsyCrow23]

Re: What Will End Of 2008 Bring?

Goodwin will retire I recon as will Biglands, Torney, Welsh (unless he kicks more than 50 goals) possibly Bassett unless he is injury free

I predict McLeod & Edwards will play on until 34-35 years old, & Macca to play 350 games

dunno why people recon Burton hes got a few years yet surely

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Re: What Will End Of 2008 Bring?

You'd say 2 would go ....if Torney doesn't go now then definately next season.

IMO injury will play a part in deciding who? ........Bassett I think OK to keep going.

I'll say Biglands and Edwards with Welsh not being offered another contract

 

[lunacy]

Re: What Will End Of 2008 Bring?

Goodwin will retire I recon as will Biglands, Torney, Welsh (unless he kicks more than 50 goals) possibly Bassett unless he is injury free

I predict McLeod & Edwards will play on until 34-35 years old, & Macca to play 350 games

dunno why people recon Burton hes got a few years yet surely

I think Edwards will retire one year before Mcleod and Goodwin. Edwards has lost a lot of leg speed and his deision making is getting worse. I think he tries to do too much without making allowances for his decline in speed etc.

 

[SA_Stazza]

Geez settle down. You make a good point but bringing it across in that manner doesn't help.

Tippett wasn't really in the mix for a debut this year, he's a project player and way too raw for an AFL debut until 08. But MacKay would've got a game for sure, John Reid loves this boy and didn't mind saying so on KG and Cornsey one night!

Pfeiffer is an interesting one, like the boy but not sure he'll survive the delistings. Then again, it seems so many are on a knife's edge, there's a large group for whom its too bloody hard to tell who'll stay and who'll go.

I'm glad you started this thread. I was intrigued by your projections, because I too have done many. Although, we seem to have slightly varying forecasts..

You have in:
2008: Edwards, Massie, Burton
2009: Shirley
to retire.
However I would suggest that:

- Shirley COULD play until possibly another year or two after you have suggested. He will only be 28 in 2009 and has been an integral cog in our midfield playing over 90% of all possible games since the beginning of 2005.

- Massie would more likely play until atleast 2011 (30 yrs old), possibly in similar circumstances to a Torney this year (and playing a similar role)

- Edwards would play on until 2009. He could play an effective pinch-hitting small forward role in 2010 if he is used accordingly throughout his final years as he will be 33 in 2010 (the same age you have predicted Bassett to play until, yet he has been far less durable than Edwards in recent times- Edwards has been our most durable and reliable senior midfielder over the last 5 years and has not yet showed signs of slowing down. Before missing 3 games in 06, he had missed only one game in the previous 6 season and in doing so chalked up a healthy sequence of over 100 consecutive matches, the first of those coming in R22, 2003.

Bassett has beenly less durable, but I also expect him to play until 2009 as you have suggested - Do you not think Edwards is just as likely to play until the same age (not that I'm suggesting he will, I can only hope his body stays that sound!). A few of you may then say that would be to the detriment of our list, however, in doing so:

In 2010, Edwards would then be one of the only three (IMO) possible 30+ yr olds on our list. It could be very beneficial to have atleast one veteran on our list, providing leadership for and protecting blokes like: (age in 2010)
Knights (23)
Douglas (23)
Van Berlo (23)
Tippett (21)
Mackay (21)
Sellar (20)
Walker (20)
Pfeiffer (22)
Vince (24)
Griffin (24)
Maric (24)
McIntyre (23)
Most of who, are expected to become regular players by then, given the not too distant exodus.

The only other two possible players I would think are "capable" of still being there in 2010 as 30+ yr olds are Burton and Bode, with Burton the more likely suitor.

- Burton has always been one of the fittest blokes at the club since arriving, despite having a wretched run this year. He did have to play the first half of the season injured, purely out of a lack of depth resulting from our extensive injury list, and unable to contribute his usual output. But I expect him to rebound and atleast give us a couple of good years in 08 and 09.

Bode had, inbetween his stellar 23 game season in 2006, only appeared in 12 games collectively in 2004 (9), 2005 (2) and 2007 (1)
As much as I love the bloke and the way he plays, I don't think he will be around beyond 2009. You suggested his role has been taken by Porplyzia, yet the two play opposite styles; as Crowugoodthing pointed out, Porps is a small leading forward who's natural strength is above his waist, while Bode's is below his as an in-and-under, crumbing small. Make no mistake, we did not have anyone fill Bode's role this year.

Much the same as your suggestion of Biglands filling Hudson's role next year, as those two are also dissimilar players - yes Biglands will be our lead ruckman next year but he will not play the role Hudson has for us.

A few other points:

Gill at 24 is only just starting to enter his prime years. This year he has adjusted very well to the pace and requirements of AFL footy which stands him in good stead.

Tippett, who you claim is "way too raw" and would not have been in the mix this year, was more impressive in this year's pre-season outings than both Griffin and Meesen! With his standout work coming against a Melbourne side with Jeff White in the ruck. Craig has a high opinion of the lad and suggested he would have certainly gained senior selection if it weren't for his injuries this year.

Pfeiffer will certainly not be delisted, nor traded (CarnCrows). If you could have noticed anything about Craig's use of the juniors he has brought to the club, it is that he prefers to allow them to develop in the SANFL and reserves over a number of years (1-2 on average) with a handfull of call-ups rewarding solid form.

They serve an apprenticeship playing in the state competition until they prove they are ready to play senior footy, and play it consistently.
We have seen this with: (senior games in first yr)(yr)
Douglas: (3)(2006)
Vince: (4)(2006)
Knights: (2)(2005)
Campbell: (1)(2007)
Mackay was unlucky not to debut this year, while Hinge made his debut in his second season (07).

The only Craig-bourne juniors who have exceeded expectations and defied this trend are Van Berlo and Porplyzia, who both played over 10 games in their first season (11 each) and managed to reserve Craig's faith during their second season (playing over 15 games apiece).

Pfeiffer WILL debut in 08, for the AFC and no other club. He was a first round draft choice (#17) in 2005 who has this year performed consistently enough to push for senior selection next year, and do so on a regular basis.

Oh and Vic Crow, couldn't have said it better myself mate, great post! We definitely think along similar lines

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

This year we have already lost Roo - though he played so rarely in 2007 that he could hardly be considered a permanent member of the team this year. Perrie is also likely to depart, replaced in the side by Gill (at 24 not exactly a youngster). I would also expect Bode to depart this year (his position already filled by Porplyzia). Hudson will also be gone (albeit traded) - his position filled in 2008 by a returning Biglands.

I have done some projections, regarding expected retirement (or delisting) dates for other senior members of our team:
2008: Torney, Edwards, Biglands, Massie, Burton, Doughty
2009: McLeod, Goodwin, Welsh, Shirley, Bassett

I reckon the retirements would be like as follows:
2007: Ricciuto, Perrie, Bode [trades- Hudson, Meesen]
2008: Torney, Edwards, Doughty, Biglands (or 2009)
2009: Goodwin, Bassett, Massie, Welsh
2010: McLeod, Burton, Shirley

Of the fab-3, Edwards for me looks like the one who has lost some of his skill-level. Goddwin should be OK for another 2 seasons if he can stay fit - still a class act. McLeod is looking better than ever & playing of HBF should extend his career.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Dunno where to post this but the coming revolution seems appropriate!

Let's say we trade Hudson for Bulldogs 2nd round and Meesen for Melbourne 3rd round, that gives us 1 first rounder, 2 second rounders, 2 third rounders, 1 fourth rounder assuming adequate trade and delistings.

Now, i have a limited knowledge of interstate players but how does this balance sound?

1: best available midfielder (?Vez)

2: midfielder with pace (??)
3: small forward (Wright)

4: taller player (Salter)
5: ruckman (??)

6: Taylor Walker

Delisted/Traded/Retired: Ricciuto, Hudson, Meesen, Perrie, Doughty, Bode

 

[Dogga79]

Everyone seems to be of the opinion we need a midfeilder. Vezpremi's name is getting thrown arourd a bit, but he may slip to the low 20's were we may have another pick. I dont think you could go wrong with the latest Selwood. He has a decent motor from what draft camp results say and he sounds like an honest performer. Maybe we should draft something we can count on. Also I think Levi Greenwood hurt his chances by pulling out with hamstring soreness before the 3km time trial.

 

[Brett_Burton_#24]

I agree with PsyCrow23 and Kane that Burton will at least go on till 2010 maybe longer, can't believe some people in the thread thinking that he'll retire next year surely his had injuries but with his supreme fitness level he'll be able to go on longer yet.