The destruction of our forward line pillars

[The Karma Bus]

You just need to look at 3/4 time in the Brisbane game. Nicks asked the players what they think we need to do.

They replied to open the game up and go for it. Last season and in the off-season they were reportedly sick of the negative game style of last year. We've been heading right back down that path.

We can see it anyway, but that's admitted proof that we are not choosing to play positively.

And when we did that? Bang, 5 goals in no time. And the conditions were poor in that game so that's no reason.

 

[MRB37]

You just need to look at 3/4 time in the Brisbane game. Nicks asked the players what they think we need to do.

They replied to open the game up and go for it. Last season and in the off-season they were reportedly sick of the negative game style of last year. We've been heading right back down that path.

We can see it anyway, but that's admitted proof that we are not choosing to play positively.

And when we did that? Bang, 5 goals in no time. And the conditions were poor in that game so that's no reason.

We wonder why we struggle in tough games when every time it feels like we play Nicks way and try to suffocate it.

 

[Captain_Plane]

Guys how are you not seeing this? Pretending to be unable to drop Tex, targeting him with a majority of our forward entries ... Nicks is emulating the great crazy man and getting ready to pull a Blight/Modra 1998. Tex will be a late omission the day before we win an away QF on our way to the flag, nobody will see it coming

 

[Stephen2]

Guys how are you not seeing this? Pretending to be unable to drop Tex, targeting him with a majority of our forward entries ... Nicks is emulating the great crazy man and getting ready to pull a Blight/Modra 1998. Tex will be a late omission the day before we win an away QF on our way to the flag, nobody will see it coming

I got a chuckle thank you.

I'm reminded of Hanlon's Razor:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

I tell myself my life is a drama tale, culminating in a Prelim win vs Hawks, followed by a GF win vs Pies before I die. But it does still feel 40 years away, the way we're going.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Interestingly it sounds like Davis is responsible for this. At the end of the hawks game Rowe and Campo were discussing ball movement and mentioned that it was one of Davis’s key roles at the club.

Weird that we've done it consistently under Nicks but its the new guys fault, but sounds credible

 

[spenze]

Weird that we've done it consistently under Nicks but its the new guys fault, but sounds credible

Actually, it sounds right to me. First few games of the season we had a much more direct path to goal using wings and cutting back into the middle so we could use both sides of the forward 50. There was a lot more movement of our key forwards coming up the ground on leads to get the kick that came out of the D50 to then turn around and kick over the defence that had been set up.

Then we lost a shootout to Geelong and on the back of analysts saying we were conceding too many goals, Nicks himself said we would adjust our plans to stop the opposition scoring...and that is now where we are at.

If you go back and look at the first few weeks, the amount of times we hit up one of our KPFs on the lead with a 35 metre pass who then wheeled around and kicked 50 metres to the next one who was running back to goal was a constant of our game plan. It stretched defences and gave us access to a near empty 50 that players could lead up into.

That isn't happening now because old mate wanted to adjust our defence.

 

[Barneythecrab]

Weird that we've done it consistently under Nicks but its the new guys fault, but sounds credible

Yeah, I totally agree, just stating what was said by Campo and Rowe.

 

[Interloperer]

In the Collingwood game, Fogarty kicked 3 goals in a quarter. While the Fox commentary highlighted that Walker, Curtin, and Thilthorpe were occupying defenders even if they weren't scoring themselves, allowing Fogarty to exploit the mismatch. After that point Collingwood shifted Jeremy Howe

38

Jeremy Howe

Age

35

Ht

190cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

6.4

5star

T

2.1

4star

MG

318.1

4star

D

21.5

5star

K

16.5

5star

HB

5.0

3star

M

6.5

5star

T

2.0

3star

MG

433.3

5star

D

15.2

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

6.2

4star

M

6.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

permanently onto Fogarty and the goals dried up. He grabbed one late when Dawson went forward returning the forward line to a 3 talls setup. But he's had 3 goals total in all games since then.

One key problem with the tall forwards now is that Fogarty is incapable of creating a threat by himself. But equally there's nobody else capable of ruthlessly cashing in on a mismatch the way he does. And Walker seems to have lost the "give him an inch, and he'll take a mile" aura that demands he receive a top-class defender instead of Fogarty.

IMHO with hindsight it would have been best to take one of two nuclear options against Hawthorn:

• Drop both Fogarty and Walker for tactical reasons.
• Drop Walker and commit Dawson to near fulltime as a forward.

The other key problem is that Josh Rachele is the dangerous forward for Adelaide currently, but isn't really treated as such.

 

[SellarStardom]

If we refuse to play Burgess they should bring in Muz at FF and rest Walker for a few weeks. Or the same but with Butts

 

[kirky]

If we refuse to play Burgess they should bring in Muz at FF and rest Walker for a few weeks. Or the same but with Butts

Not going to happen as our next two games are against Richmond and Melbourne. It will probably see us wipe the floor with both of them and Nicks will say “nothing to see here”.

 

[Southerntakeover]

In the Collingwood game, Fogarty kicked 3 goals in a quarter. While the Fox commentary highlighted that Walker, Curtin, and Thilthorpe were occupying defenders even if they weren't scoring themselves, allowing Fogarty to exploit the mismatch. After that point Collingwood shifted Jeremy Howe permanently onto Fogarty and the goals dried up. He grabbed one late when Dawson went forward returning the forward line to a 3 talls setup. But he's had 3 goals total in all games since then.

One key problem with the tall forwards now is that Fogarty is incapable of creating a threat by himself. But equally there's nobody else capable of ruthlessly cashing in on a mismatch the way he does. And Walker seems to have lost the "give him an inch, and he'll take a mile" aura that demands he receive a top-class defender instead of Fogarty.

IMHO with hindsight it would have been best to take one of two nuclear options against Hawthorn:

• Drop both Fogarty and Walker for tactical reasons.
• Drop Walker and commit Dawson to near fulltime as a forward.

The other key problem is that Josh Rachele is the dangerous forward for Adelaide currently, but isn't really treated as such.

The difficulty with a narrative that suggests that the problem is actually Fogarty's singular failure to be threatening is that he's both leading our goal kicking (having won it last year), and doing so whilst receiving substantially less targets than the other forwards.

His goal per target ratio must be amongst the very best in the league.

He's not getting targets and beaten, he doesn't get a look in. He's a mark and goal player, who a quality outfit would work to create shots for.

And its not just him. None of the forwards are taking inside 50 marks at the moment.

 

[Doctor B]

 

[Interloperer]

The difficulty with a narrative that suggests that the problem is actually Fogarty's singular failure to be threatening is that he's both leading our goal kicking (having won it last year), and doing so whilst receiving substantially less targets than the other forwards.

His goal per target ratio must be amongst the very best in the league.

He's not getting targets and beaten, he doesn't get a look in. He's a mark and goal player, who a quality outfit would work to create shots for.

And its not just him. None of the forwards are taking inside 50 marks at the moment.

The entire strategy of "stetching the defence" is built around getting chances for Fogarty, it worked perfectly up until the point the defence was no longer stretched. He's not getting a look in because since half-time against Collingwood the opposition has stuck firmly to dedicating their two best defenders to Thilthorpe and Fogarty. And Walker has either been absent or not dangerous enough to cause them to consider a rethink. (The combo of Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Dawson got 6 goals between them against West Coast, which wasn't completely terrible)

If you don't have credible other threats in the forward line, you may as well be playing without Fogarty too.

 

[adelaidecrows]

The entire strategy of "stetching the defence" is built around getting chances for Fogarty, it worked perfectly up until the point the defence was no longer stretched. He's not getting a look in because since half-time against Collingwood the opposition has stuck firmly to dedicating their two best defenders to Thilthorpe and Fogarty. And Walker has either been absent or not dangerous enough to cause them to consider a rethink. (The combo of Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Dawson got 6 goals between them against West Coast, which wasn't completely terrible)

If you don't have credible other threats in the forward line, you may as well be playing without Fogarty too.

Modern teams have mutiple backman around 195cm and over. Adelaides forward line narrative of stretching the defence, doesnt stack up as Thilthorpe is really the only threatening air target, Walker and Fogarty while big enough to beat their opponents 1 on 1, are not tall enough to really stop a 2 on 1 double team from working. Thats why both seem to get most of their goals on the lead or in the 1 on 1 contests. This is why the bombing it long to the contest is an utter stupid game plan as its not the way our forward line functions best. If Walker, Fogarty and Thilthorpe are attracting the double team, it means Rachele, Rankine, ANB and our other mids should have a monster amount of space to work into and these are the targets we should be looking for. A smart coach works around the defence, a dumb coach tries to compete with it, even when losing.

 

[John Who]

If we’re going to be honest with the stats, in the last 4 rounds:

• we’ve won 3 games, lost 1
• beaten a seriously bogey team away (Sydney) and the reigning premier who were 2nd at the time (Lions)
• went from 6th to 4th
• score percentage went up by 10%

This really paints a picture that our forwards are doing well relative to the competition.

But John, we got lucky with the Lions game! Yeah, well, we got unlucky with the Hawks game! It was literally a script-flip! It can even be argued that with the Lions game we matched their intensity for essentially most of the match. With the Hawks game, we should have blown them away in the first half except our kicking was disastrously horrible, which had allowed the Hawks to come back.

It’s not of course all rosy and pretty, but to suggest our forwards are getting crappier while we’re doing better is the stuff of selective inattention.

Close win: Nicks, you lucky bastard!
Close loss: Nicks, you bastard!
Am I doing this right?

 

[Geoffa32]

Tex hasn't been taking anywhere near as many of the forward 50 ruck contests. ROB seems to be spending more time in the forward 50 as a result. What's that about?

Tex is not able to physically do it as much.

Even when he Rucks now he can't create the separation from the other Ruckman to be effective in taking posessions.

Tex's biggest strength was his "bench press" action.

With the season grind in full effect this is diminishing.

 

[Southerntakeover]

The entire strategy of "stetching the defence" is built around getting chances for Fogarty, it worked perfectly up until the point the defence was no longer stretched. He's not getting a look in because since half-time against Collingwood the opposition has stuck firmly to dedicating their two best defenders to Thilthorpe and Fogarty. And Walker has either been absent or not dangerous enough to cause them to consider a rethink. (The combo of Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Dawson got 6 goals between them against West Coast, which wasn't completely terrible)

If you don't have credible other threats in the forward line, you may as well be playing without Fogarty too.

So, if they put a good player on him we don't even attempt targets? We assume he'll get beaten or something? We can't ever get him free on a lead, no matter the state of play?

And this is an explanation for why Thilthorpe, who's match ups havent changed, has also dramatically dropped his effectiveness? Fogarty is so bad that he can't score either?

Isn't it a more likely explanation that someone like Buckley is right, and that we're not putting the ball to the areas where Walker (traditionally) and Fogarty are better suited, are over targeting 'the spot' directly in front of goal, and by congesting the forward line through our entry spots we've killed the effectiveness of all three?

 

[Geoffa32]

Probably a good thing we have a lot to work on, ie room for growth, being top four at the bye.

I would be more worried if we were top four and on top of every game.

 

[Southerntakeover]

If we’re going to be honest with the stats, in the last 4 rounds:

• we’ve won 3 games, lost 1
• beaten a seriously bogey team away (Sydney) and the reigning premier who were 2nd at the time (Lions)
• went from 6th to 4th
• score percentage went up by 10%

This really paints a picture that our forwards are doing well relative to the competition.

But John, we got lucky with the Lions game! Yeah, well, we got unlucky with the Hawks game! It was literally a script-flip! It can even be argued that with the Lions game we matched their intensity for essentially most of the match. With the Hawks game, we should have blown them away in the first half except our kicking was disastrously horrible, which had allowed the Hawks to come back.

It’s not of course all rosy and pretty, but to suggest our forwards are getting crappier while we’re doing better is the stuff of selective inattention.

Close win: Nicks, you lucky bastard!
Close loss: Nicks, you bastard!
Am I doing this right?

Go seek attention in another thread

 

[Greenfinger]

Tex playing in Tassie meant we were one ground ball player short for the conditions. Not only that but we then decide to sub out a ground ball player in pedlar. I really wanted someone to ask this in the presser as was a major reason for the loss in my opinion ( plus Murphy on impey )

 

[Southerntakeover]

Modern teams have mutiple backman around 195cm and over. Adelaides forward line narrative of stretching the defence, doesnt stack up as Thilthorpe is really the only threatening air target, Walker and Fogarty while big enough to beat their opponents 1 on 1, are not tall enough to really stop a 2 on 1 double team from working. Thats why both seem to get most of their goals on the lead or in the 1 on 1 contests. This is why the bombing it long to the contest is an utter stupid game plan as its not the way our forward line functions best. If Walker, Fogarty and Thilthorpe are attracting the double team, it means Rachele, Rankine, ANB and our other mids should have a monster amount of space to work into and these are the targets we should be looking for. A smart coach works around the defence, a dumb coach tries to compete with it, even when losing.

It stacks up fine, if you use them correctly (sans Walker, who is cooked). The thing we were being praised for earlier in the season is they weren't in each others space, now they're constantly running into each other.

Fogarty is a dangerous player because of his elite kicking. He's a guy who can play into the pockets and flanks and retain his goal scoring capability, areas that most teams put less effort into defending. When we play him that way, and kick to him as a leading player, he's been a team leading goal scorer.

This, if done correctly, should pull defence away from being able to camp 20 out on Thilthorpe. The way to prevent a zone in any sport is to score from outside it, and stretch it.

Instead it seems like our game plan is to not even try, and just hope we'll win a defensive war of attrition.

That is, our plan to win deliberately nullifies our own strengths.

 

[feenix67]

It stacks up fine, if you use them correctly (sans Walker, who is cooked). The thing we were being praised for earlier in the season is they weren't in each others space, now they're constantly running into each other.

Fogarty is a dangerous player because of his elite kicking. He's a guy who can play into the pockets and flanks and retain his goal scoring capability, areas that most teams put less effort into defending. When we play him that way, and kick to him as a leading player, he's been a team leading goal scorer.

This, if done correctly, should pull defence away from being able to camp 20 out on Thilthorpe. The way to prevent a zone in any sport is to score from outside it, and stretch it.

Instead it seems like our game plan is to not even try, and just hope we'll win a defensive war of attrition.

That is, our plan to win deliberately nullifies our own strengths.

This is 100% accurate, especially the last sentence. It smacks of a coaching group bound to a philosophy, with no reference to the talent and type of players we have available to us. The List Manager has done a pretty good job over the last few years accumulating genuine talent in the sweet spot age group, as well as some high end younger players and good depth. Our squad hasn't been this balanced or talented for quite a while. But the coach(es) don't seem to have the ability to utilise these assets. It's like they're trying to slice a tomato with a hammer, when a sharp knife is available.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Question: is it smart to play all three of Tex, Fog and RT?

Not suggesting it is or it isn’t, just think it’s an interesting conversation.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Question: is it smart to play all three of Tex, Fog and RT?

Not suggesting it is or it isn’t, just think it’s an interesting conversation.

The answer might depend on their capability.

If Tex was him of two years ago sure. With his relatively obvious decline we're struggling.

 

[Slippery Pete]

The answer might depend on their capability.

If Tex was him of two years ago sure. With his relatively obvious decline we're struggling.

Not quite enough difference between Tex and Fog’s key attributes has always been a bit irritating for me.