The Draft is Overrated

[master bate]

I also believe there's good evidence for trading picks for the right kind of players, trading back in the draft - say swapping a late first rounder for a good player and a useful 3rd round pick and for managing your list with a combination of needs based trades and even some needs based drafts.

Live trading on draft night will be a big test for how the clubs value picks and when that occurs I'd probably lean towards the clubs who move back down the draft and stockpile draft assets than ones who move up chasing a particular player.

 

[PhatBoy]

Parfitt and Kelly were both second rounders

Not much of a punt imo

Of course it isn’t a punt, it’s just proof that you can get good players from anywhere in the draft or, when you look at guys in our side like Tuohy, Dangerfield, Henderson etc, out of the draft.

 

[btdg]

I think this thread once again makes a common misconception about what the draft is, and it's purpose

The draft is excellent at fulfilling it's purpose, which is to ensure that new talent entering the league is evenly distributed.

Prior to the draft, as the vfl became a truly national comp, the top teams were scouring the land and signing multiple highly rated youngsters in one hit - see for example 1985 where Carlton brought in Kernahan, Motley, Bradley and Dorotich all at once (and only a legal case stopped us getting Brownlow medallist Platten as well). As more and more players from outside Victoria entered the system, more and more non Victorian teams were added, and the zone system broke down, it was clear that something had to be done to equalise the talent across the competition. Otherwise, teams like Brisbane were never going to get the same quality of player as Carlton, or Essendon, etc.

The draft is excellent at this because every team gets a roughly equal share. Every team gets a top 20 pick, 2x top 40, 3 x top 60, etc. It gives every team an equal share - including the weaker teams, the teams in unpopular destinations, the teams with less money, etc.

Sure, reverse finishing order is used to determine draft order, but it doesn't function to help the worst teams get better. To see this, more that the difference in picks between 1st and last is essentially just pick 1 - a single 18yo kid who won't hit their prime for 6-8 years. Not really making up the difference. The draft helps the bottom team more by ensuring they get someone (in other words - what 18yo in their right mind would sign for Carlton right now Imif they could play for Richmond? The draft forces them to do so)

Of course, over time we have had some prized recruits at the top end of the draft, and prior to free agency it really was the only way to consistently add talent. In that era, the value of draft picks was super high because how else could you build a team?

Now with few agency, academies, and far more player trading it's just one way of adding players in a complex matrix. Good teams have realise that they can ignore the draft to some extent and just add free agents, trades and mature aged players. Weaker teams see this as a way to stockpile extra draft picks, essentially playing a long game and gambling that the extra picks come good.

If anything, the biggest flaw is the draft is that the age is too low. 18nyear olds are too far off contributing and clubs end up babysitting players for 4-5 years before they become real ago players. It makes predicting players harder, increases the benefits to top teams (who can afford to wait a bit more), and prevents other equalization methods like priority picks from working (those picks are stupid because it takes so long for them to contribyte)


But the draft still does an excellent t job imo of dispersing talent. Yes, the top 10 is overhyped, but so is almos t everything nowadays. Yes, there are other ways to build. And Yes, having high draft picks can give supporters,teams, and the media unreasonably high expectations. It still does it's job well overall.

 

[Furn2]

Top 5 picks are gold after that it's not great, then again every good player currently playing came through the draft.

 

[Furn2]

When U Think about it the only difference between the premiers and last (assuming both take 5 picks)*is that last gets pick 1 and last gets pick 90.

For the other 4 picks 18-19,36-37,54-55,72-73. The premiers get to pick first.

 

[PhatBoy]

OK. Mathematically speaking.

You should let everyone know that Geelong's first-rounder is up for grabs, provided someone else is willing to give them two picks in the 30s.

You've got NFI.

Wait what?

You said "the number next to the pick you get doesn't matter". But you now want to walk that back?

Listen to me – you guys think you have an opinion that's worth something but you actually have NFI. You spurt something out there that you think sounds plausible but it's actually dumb as shit. I doubt you can put your pants on. You are imbeciles.

Instead of spunking out some rubbish that makes no sense at all, why don't you read what you post and think "actually, does that make any sense"?

This makes no point. You're just rambling.

I think you need a lie down

 

[Wojcinski]

OK. Mathematically speaking.

You should let everyone know that Geelong's first-rounder is up for grabs, provided someone else is willing to give them two picks in the 30s.

You've got NFI.

Wait what?

You said "the number next to the pick you get doesn't matter". But you now want to walk that back?

Listen to me – you guys think you have an opinion that's worth something but you actually have NFI. You spurt something out there that you think sounds plausible but it's actually dumb as shit. I doubt you can put your pants on. You are imbeciles.

Instead of spunking out some rubbish that makes no sense at all, why don't you read what you post and think "actually, does that make any sense"?

This makes no point. You're just rambling.

I don't understand the point you're trying to make?

 

[RedVest4]

I don't understand the point you're trying to make?

I don’t even think he does anymore...

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Well, that brings up some other questions:

- Should clubs focus on drafting more mature players who are closer to their prime, as more of a certain (lower risk, but potentially lower reward) "quicker fix" than an 18-year-old (higher risk, but potentially higher reward down the track)?

- Should the league be forcing this, by raising the minimum draft age?

- If the draft age is raised, will there be lost/missed/unmet potential? Eg. if an elite junior spends three years at state league level, then goes to the AFL at age 21, will he end up being a better or worse player in his prime years, than if he'd been in the AFL system from age 18?

- Rather than a national reserves league, do we need an AFL U/21s league instead, to still keep the elite kids under the AFL development pathway, but to ease the transition to the big league, and ensure that the AFL is still the domain of elite senior players only?

I would remove draft age completely and mandate it that you must play a minimum of 20 games of league football at second tier level before you can be drafted. If you have done that by age 17 then that’s great but if takes you to 21 then so be it.
Let’s face it if you are not a walk up start at a state league club then you are not going to help any AFL club and each AFL list has between 5-10 players on it that are not walk up starts at WAFL, SANFL and VFL level.

 

[Roobs321]

I feel like the hype over the draft has died down a bit of late. 2008 felt like the peak. Was still big in 2009-10, but the move to a thursday night from saturday seemed to hurt it.

Then the Suns and Giants started chewing up a lot of high draft picks to the point of mockery, trading and culture rose in estimation, and the clubs weren't rebuilding into a force through PPs anymore. I don't have a problem with what the Suns and Giants got (even as an Eagle who had the spoon and pick #4 to contend with), but when you have 3 picks in the top 5 it cheapens the club-by-club suspense and means some club picks get overshadowed.

 

[HolyRioli]

I feel like the hype over the draft has died down a bit of late. 2008 felt like the peak. Was still big in 2009-10, but the move to a thursday night from saturday seemed to hurt it.

Then the Suns and Giants started chewing up a lot of high draft picks to the point of mockery, trading and culture rose in estimation, and the clubs weren't rebuilding into a force through PPs anymore. I don't have a problem with what the Suns and Giants got (even as an Eagle who had the spoon and pick #4 to contend with), but when you have 3 picks in the top 5 it cheapens the club-by-club suspense and means some club picks get overshadowed.

I think the other thing is you see guys like Watts, Scully, Boyd, Patton, McCartin, Weitering struggle to deliver on their junior hype, and people have worked out that pick 1 isn't the sole solution to the club's problem. There's less of a savior complex assigned to those early picks, which I think is a great thing.

 

[Roobs321]

I think the other thing is you see guys like Watts, Scully, Boyd, Patton, McCartin, Weitering struggle to deliver on their junior hype, and people have worked out that pick 1 isn't the sole solution to the club's problem. There's less of a savior complex assigned to those early picks, which I think is a great thing.

Completely agree, it's certainly a more balanced perspective nowadays. I sometimes won't even know the name of an Eagle debutant now, which would have been blasphemous once upon a time.

I was mainly just talking about the relevance of the draft spectacle for the average fan, which is only one aspect of the draft.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I think you need a lie down

You said "the number next to the pick you get doesn't matter".

Just pause for a second to consider how ridiculous that is.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I don’t even think he does anymore...

f the draft is a lottery and picks are so overrated, then how come you said "the only player worth a first round pick on Hawthorn's list is Gunston and maaaaaybe Cyril"?

Would you trade Geelong's first-rounder for Scott Lycett?

You've got NFI.

 

[PhatBoy]

You said "the number next to the pick you get doesn't matter".

Just pause for a second to consider how ridiculous that is.

Within reason, I don’t think it does.

Yes clearly if you have the very first pick in the draft you have a better chance of striking gold than if you have the very last.

There is plenty of talent down the list if you look hard enough and select smartly.

Go and pop a few Valium and settle down old boy

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Within reason, I don’t think it does.

What the hell does that mean?

Yes clearly if you have the very first pick in the draft you have a better chance of striking gold than if you have the very last.

There is plenty of talent down the list if you look hard enough and select smartly.

Go and pop a few Valium and settle down old boy

How about WC give Geelong two third-rounders this year in return for your first-rounder?

Because "the number next to the pick you get doesn't matter". Third-rounder, first-rounder, what's the difference?

So you'd do that deal in a heartbeat, right?

You should become a professional recruiter. I'm sure you'd be a success, simply by looking hard.

 

[PhatBoy]

What the hell does that mean?

How about WC give Geelong two third-rounders this year in return for your first-rounder?

Because "the number next to the pick you get doesn't matter". Third-rounder, first-rounder, what's the difference?

So you'd do that deal in a heartbeat, right?

You should become a professional recruiter. I'm sure you'd be a success, simply by looking hard.

Fine. If it shuts you up and stops you blowing an o-ring, I’ll become our list manager, pull some strings and make you West Coast’s equivalent, and we’ll get it done.
And given our pedigree at picking decent players out of the nether regions of the draft, we would probably make it work.


If you don’t know what the words ‘within reason’ mean, I’m staggered as to how you’ve been given internet access, for what it’s worth.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Fine. If it shuts you up and stops you blowing an o-ring, I’ll become our list manager, pull some strings and make you West Coast’s equivalent, and we’ll get it done.
And given our pedigree at picking decent players out of the nether regions of the draft, we would probably make it work.

Third-rounder, first-rounder, what's the difference?

NFI.

If you don’t know what the words ‘within reason’ mean, I’m staggered as to how you’ve been given internet access, for what it’s worth.

You said something dumb and now want to water it down.

 

[Tbonefreo]

All players come from a draft, so it can't be that overrated

 

[PhatBoy]

Third-rounder, first-rounder, what's the difference?

NFI.

You said something dumb and now want to water it down.

No, I said something I stand by and would expect a degree of common sense to be applied in its interpretation. If we are going to take everything down into its most literal interpretation:

“You said I’d do a deal in a heartbeat. How stupid are you? A heartbeat takes like 0.001 of a second, it takes way longer than that to do a trade deal.”

Will you survive this harrowing online ordeal? I have my doubts judging by your level of incredulity.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

No, I said something I stand by and would expect a degree of common sense to be applied in its interpretation.

"The number next to the pick you get doesn't matter".

One of the most ridiculous things I've read on this site. And you pass it off as insight.

“You said I’d do a deal in a heartbeat. How stupid are you? A heartbeat takes like 0.001 of a second, it takes way longer than that to do a trade deal.”

Will you survive this harrowing online ordeal? I have my doubts judging by your level of incredulity.

What a weak attempt to deflect from your ridiculous statement.

 

[PhatBoy]

"The number next to the pick you get doesn't matter".

One of the most ridiculous things I've read on this site. And you pass it off as insight.

What a weak attempt to deflect from your ridiculous statement.

The statement I stand by?

Mate deal with it. Your head is going to explode. Agree to disagree and go get some meds.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

The statement I stand by?

Mate deal with it. Your head is going to explode. Agree to disagree and go get some meds.

"The number next to the pick you get doesn't matter".

First-rounder, third-rounder ... same same.

 

[PhatBoy]

"The number next to the pick you get doesn't matter".

First-rounder, third-rounder ... same same.

And you seem to have an incredibly hard time handling this. Take it up with the ombudsman.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

And you seem to have an incredibly hard time handling this.

It's absolute rubbish.