The free kick count - why do delusional fans place emphasis on it?

[Walter H White]

This post is right on the money.

To be honest my biggest gripe with footy fans is their ridiculous obsession with umpires.

At any game, or game day thread fans talk incessantly about being raped by umpires and that's the reason their team lost.

Reality is there is only few examples of umpires really impacting on a game through bad calls/non-calls etc, the big one being 2016 GF where the AFL reviewed the game and said it the umpiring was "not up to standard".

PS - I am looking forward to visiting the Freo board today and seeing all the posts complaining about Margetts raping Freo fans and gifting Eagles another derby

And this is coming from a fan of the team who have had more than double the FKD over the last 20 years than the team with the second best FKD.

A little self-awareness wouldn't go astray every now and then.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FreeTK]

And this is coming from a fan of the team who have had more than double the FKD over the last 20 years than the team with the second best FKD.

A little self-awareness wouldn't go astray every now and then.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

This year we have a negative free kick differential and you still don't see any posts from me complaining about free kicks.

 

[Walter H White]

This year we have a negative free kick differential and you still don't see any posts from me complaining about free kicks.

I don't go through and audit every single one of the of your posts. I don't know what you have said and when except for your post below.

My point was related to the 20 odd years of skewed FKD to your team, not the first seven weeks of competition this year in a season disrupted by pandemic. Have you thought that your FKD may be down this year because you have only played one game at home so far, and even that was behind closed doors?

Please try not to be so obtuse.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FreeTK]

I don't go through and audit every single one of the of your posts. I don't know what you have said and when except for your post below.

My point was related to the 20 odd years of skewed FKD to your team, not the first seven weeks of competition this year in a season disrupted by pandemic. Have you thought that your FKD may be down this year because you have only played one game at home so far, and even that was behind closed doors?

Please try not to be so obtuse.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

If you point was valid, you would see me melting over the shift in FKD we have experienced this year. There hasn't been a shift because I don't think the FKD made much of an impact on any of the games we won or lost this year, or any other year.

Now we are in negative FKD territory it has not precipitated a change in my view about umpires.

I think for the most part their impact on the game is over rated and it's just supporters of loser clubs who like to blame external factors on their clubs loser like mentality and performances.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

As soon as I saw the thread title I was pretty confident the OP was started by a Collingwood supporter.

You had a good run on Thursday night, let sleeping dogs lie. There's no need to justify it to yourself or others, what's the point.

I realise the free kick count doesn't need to be even but I'll just leave with this. At one point the count was 21 - 7 in Collingwood's favour. Four of those Geelong free kicks were from Collingwood players kicking the ball out on the full.

 

[Spanish_Fly]

4-15 at 3qtr time and 12-17 at the end. The game was shot but Essendon all of a sudden gets a run of frees like that. Infuriating, umps just padding up the stats.

This happens all the time. Richmond game last night was honestly about the most one sided game of the year and North were winning frees 14-6 about 3 Qtr time. Umps then gave Tiges a string of soft frees on our half back line after we already had possession to try and even it up a little in the last qtr

 

[adammania9]

As soon as I saw the thread title I was pretty confident the OP was started by a Collingwood supporter.

You had a good run on Thursday night, let sleeping dogs lie. There's no need to justify it to yourself or others, what's the point.

I realise the free kick count doesn't need to be even but I'll just leave with this. At one point the count was 21 - 7 in Collingwood's favour. Four of those Geelong free kicks were from Collingwood players kicking the ball out on the full.

OOTF does not and has never counted toward the free kick ledger

 

[jsdsgn]

OOTF does not and has never counted toward the free kick ledger

Exactly. A great example of the delusional fans I was talking about in the OP. They are like conspiracy theorists providing evidence which is incorrect. LOL

 

[adammania9]

Exactly. A great example of the delusional fans I was talking about in the OP. They are like conspiracy theorists providing evidence which is incorrect. LOL

I’m not gonna pretend it’s common knowledge because logic would dictate that any free kick counts toward the ledger, but with how closely so many watch the free kick count, like its their religion, you’d think more people would pick up on it by now.

 

[PowerForGood]

What could happen is this (In a delusionary world)...
Some bright young maths student gets a 50k grant, to record the following info for a full season
- team, free kick given, position on ground, officiating umpire, graded level of support from commentator (no comment through to wtf).
Would be an interesting table.

They did something like this for commentary in the EPL and the different comments for “fair skinned ” players vs “Darker skin” players looking for racial bias. And it was illuminating in how prevalent it was.

* finding the independent commentary would be a challenge
* finding a Maths student with the work ethic would be a challenge these days
* why they would take a pay cut from JobLoser - i mean JobKeeper is doubtful

scratch that idea actually.

 

[flipper83]

This is something I've never been able to understand.

The free kick count is not indicative of the quality of umpiring throughout a game. It mainly serves as an insight into disposal and tackle statistics

Generally, winning the disposal count means you will be tackling less. Doesn't take much logic to understand that. If a team tackles more, theyre more likely to give away more free kicks. You cannot give away a high tackle if you have the ball in your hands.

Yes, every game has poor calls, and so rather than analyse the free kick count as the primary indicator of if a team was 'robbed,' why not point out one or two specific calls that may have influenced the result or turned the momentum. But no. Scrolling through forums and comments sections etc. will just yield hundreds of comments saying 'free kick count 10-22 therefore my team was robbed.' As soon as you ask these people to elaborate, they can't.

The ladder for frees for vs frees against differential - FKD

1. North Melbourne (+6.1)
2. Collingwood (+5.5)
3. Fremantle (+3.4)
4. Melbourne (+2)
5. Port Adelaide (+1.8)
6. Western Bulldogs (+1.3)
7. Brisbane (+0.6)
8. Sydney (+0.5)
9. St. Kilda (-0.1)
10. Adelaide (-0.3)
11. Richmond (-0.8)
12. Carlton (-1)
13. Gold Coast (-1)
14. West Coast (-1.8)
15. GWS Giants (-2.1)
16. Essendon (-3.4)
17. Hawthorn (-5.5)
18. Geelong (-6)

Amazingly enough, this is completely different to the actual AFL ladder, with only 3 of the top 8 teams on here being in the actual top 8. This shows FKD has little effect on the result.

But theres more.

5 of the top 9 teams on the FKD ladder sit in the top 8 for disposal counts.
Hawthorn has the 2nd worst FKD but tackle the 8th most in the league.
Geelong has the worst FKD but tackles the 2nd most in the league.
Essendon has the 3rd worst FKD but tackles the 9th most.

The statistics all align. Whilst not always consistent, due to the fact that tackle and disposal counts will vary from game to game as well as the effect of a team's gamestyle, the fact is that generally a team that tackles more will give away more free kicks.

Believe it or not, 90% of calls are actually correct, at least perceivably. Umpires do not conspire against teams or get paid to umpire poorly.

Can argue with a smart person, but cant argue with a dumb one.

It's funny that people think the free kick count needs to be equal between teams every week but don't apply the same logic to any other stats.

The Bulldogs lose the hit outs every week! I'm sure the other ruckman must be cheating or the umpires are deliberately throwing the ball to the advantage of the opposition.

Not sure of his name but there was a former Essendon strategist trying to explain why the dons have struggled against the dogs recently. He said that the dogs like to get numbers in at the ball while Essendon try to keep numbers out of the contest and pressure the ball carrier to then capitalise on the turnovers.

So strategically one team is focusing on getting the ball while the other is trying to stop them when they have it. The dogs midfielders also like to play the ball along the ground a lot and will try to avoid handballing up to a team mate unless they are clear. Because they have their heads over the ball and often don't take clear possession they draw more high tackles or pushes in the back and are less likely to get holding the ball against.

Last week Carlton mids were good at taking our players off the ball and getting the ball forward quickly to an open forward line.

I guess it's easier to look at the free kick stats at the end of the game and blame the umpire rather than try to look more closely at why the game was lost.

There are always some terrible decisions, Essendon copped a couple of crap ones early against us and I still blame the umpires for the 97 and 09 preliminary finals but the reality is that over the course of a game these decisions should more or less even out even if the we don't notice it as one eyed supporters.

 

[PowerForGood]

Anyone who thinks that free kicks are dealt out without ANY form of bias are the delusional ones waiting for the Easter Bunny to arrive on Santa's sleigh.

Call it "noise of affirmation" or "star struck disease" or "unconscious fanboi syndrome" or "media conditioning" or whatever other fancy words I can come up with.... just don't pretend it doesn't exist.

 

[jsdsgn]

Anyone who thinks that free kicks are dealt out without ANY form of bias are the delusional ones waiting for the Easter Bunny to arrive on Santa's sleigh.

Call it "noise of affirmation" or "star struck disease" or "unconscious fanboi syndrome" or "media conditioning" or whatever other fancy words I can come up with.... just don't pretend it doesn't exist.

It doesnt exist.

 

[Boxhead_31]

This is something I've never been able to understand.

The free kick count is not indicative of the quality of umpiring throughout a game. It mainly serves as an insight into disposal and tackle statistics

Generally, winning the disposal count means you will be tackling less. Doesn't take much logic to understand that. If a team tackles more, theyre more likely to give away more free kicks. You cannot give away a high tackle if you have the ball in your hands.

Yes, every game has poor calls, and so rather than analyse the free kick count as the primary indicator of if a team was 'robbed,' why not point out one or two specific calls that may have influenced the result or turned the momentum. But no. Scrolling through forums and comments sections etc. will just yield hundreds of comments saying 'free kick count 10-22 therefore my team was robbed.' As soon as you ask these people to elaborate, they can't.

The ladder for frees for vs frees against differential - FKD

1. North Melbourne (+6.1)
2. Collingwood (+5.5)
3. Fremantle (+3.4)
4. Melbourne (+2)
5. Port Adelaide (+1.8)
6. Western Bulldogs (+1.3)
7. Brisbane (+0.6)
8. Sydney (+0.5)
9. St. Kilda (-0.1)
10. Adelaide (-0.3)
11. Richmond (-0.8)
12. Carlton (-1)
13. Gold Coast (-1)
14. West Coast (-1.8)
15. GWS Giants (-2.1)
16. Essendon (-3.4)
17. Hawthorn (-5.5)
18. Geelong (-6)

Amazingly enough, this is completely different to the actual AFL ladder, with only 3 of the top 8 teams on here being in the actual top 8. This shows FKD has little effect on the result.

But theres more.

5 of the top 9 teams on the FKD ladder sit in the top 8 for disposal counts.
Hawthorn has the 2nd worst FKD but tackle the 8th most in the league.
Geelong has the worst FKD but tackles the 2nd most in the league.
Essendon has the 3rd worst FKD but tackles the 9th most.

The statistics all align. Whilst not always consistent, due to the fact that tackle and disposal counts will vary from game to game as well as the effect of a team's gamestyle, the fact is that generally a team that tackles more will give away more free kicks.

Believe it or not, 90% of calls are actually correct, at least perceivably. Umpires do not conspire against teams or get paid to umpire poorly.

Can argue with a smart person, but cant argue with a dumb one.

I get upset when an umpire requests a guernsey off of a player at the end of game one week, gets refused then the next week comes out and pays 14 free kicks to the team playing against the team that refuses to give him a guernsey.
Looking right at you Razor Ray

 

[PowerForGood]

It doesnt exist.

Clearly you arent watching the Crows Saints game right now. Abysmal. Even the commentators called out “noise of affirmation” to explain the Crows 3 extra players on the field.
and I don’t even know what the free kick count is.