The future

[rines]

With the events of yesterday, one has to wonder if this is just a small taste of what is to come. Whilst it sounded nice in theory.. give two new clubs all the money, resources and young talent required to dominate.. the reality may not be so fun for the other 16 clubs...

It is only one week, and many still won't believe that either of these upstart teams will seriously challenge for the flag this year (although Gold Coast is a chance for the finals), the reality remains that both teams are full of potential superstars, not just good players but downright Once-In-A-Generation players.

GWS FINALLY came to the party at the end of last year and realised they need a ruckman (thanks Sydney for Mumford) and some decent 'mature' bodies (thanks Collingwood for Shaw and Geelong for Hunt) and they looked a whole lot more solid as a result. Add to that the growing, menacing, prospect of Cameron and Patton towering bigger than Lloyd and Lucas, plus the as yet unveiled, Boyd and you fear for the future. The Giants finally started to live up to their moniker in size and deed and a few Swans will be nursing the bruises for days.

Gold Coast showed that GAJ (perhaps unlike Buddy) was worth every penny (probably plus some) as he again started the season with 40+ touches and 2 goals. The ageless, peerless and bedazzling midfielder sparkled but, scarily, was joined by the young guns Prestia, O'Meara and Swallow to make sure the Suns are no longer a one trick pony. Explosive running and the re-emergence of talents such as Rischetelli, Harbrow and Matera and the sky is the limit for the third year of the fledging club.

Whilst the Gold Coast victory will cause less ripples, with Richmond's known fragility and unfavourable home ground conditions mentioned, the Giants huge win will long be remembered of one of the great upsets. Will questions about Sydney now be asked? Will a supporter base begin to wonder whether one man was worth the loss of COLA, Mumford, White and more? While the focus will naturally shift to Buddy and his performance alone, the massive off field offer must be viewed in its entirety. Sydney will have nine, potentially very long, years to determine if this risk was the coup-de-gras for the competition, or themselves.

This writer suggests that, in nine years time, it may just be the Giants who smile quietly to themselves about the 'one that got away'. Sydney will recover from this loss, as will Richmond, but for the new clubs, Saturday 15th of March 2014 may just be remembered as the beginning of an era.

 

[Jam123]

Which is why winning a premiership in the next 3 or so years is vital. I feel like the other clubs know that this is the case, which is why it seems like recent seasons have been more competitive than they were before.

Also the reason why I am annoyed at the whole supplement scandal because this is the time that we should be focused and competitive instead of distracted.

Fremantle are well placed to break the drought though. They are going all out for the flag knowing that these two teams will be dominating soon

 

[rines]

Which is why winning a premiership in the next 3 or so years is vital. I feel like the other clubs know that this is the case, which is why it seems like recent seasons have been more competitive than they were before.

Also the reason why I am annoyed at the whole supplement scandal because this is the time that we should be focused and competitive instead of distracted.

Fremantle are well placed to break the drought though. They are going all out for the flag knowing that these two teams will be dominating soon

It becomes a real possibility that Gold Coast and GWS could become unbeatable.. a couple of things that could delay them:

1. It is really hard, no matter what talent you have, to win premiership (see St Kilda/Carlton)
2. The salary cap (even with 10% extra) will get really tight when you have 10-15 guys that all *could* command huge money
3. Injury, bad luck, tough draws and bad 'normal' recruiting can make life tough

 

[Donakebab]

It becomes a real possibility that Gold Coast and GWS could become unbeatable.. a couple of things that could delay them:

1. It is really hard, no matter what talent you have, to win premiership (see St Kilda/Carlton)
2. The salary cap (even with 10% extra) will get really tight when you have 10-15 guys that all *could* command huge money
3. Injury, bad luck, tough draws and bad 'normal' recruiting can make life tough

Or they could be like Geelong and accept unders with the aim of sticking together and hoping to create a dynasty.

 

[Jam123]

It becomes a real possibility that Gold Coast and GWS could become unbeatable.. a couple of things that could delay them:

1. It is really hard, no matter what talent you have, to win premiership (see St Kilda/Carlton)
2. The salary cap (even with 10% extra) will get really tight when you have 10-15 guys that all *could* command huge money
3. Injury, bad luck, tough draws and bad 'normal' recruiting can make life tough

Could be. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Looking scary atm though

 

[rines]

Or they could be like Geelong and accept unders with the aim of sticking together and hoping to create a dynasty.

I guess both clubs will be hoping that is the case, although I think that is made all the more difficult because of Free Agency.

Just looking at midfielders that (I believe) can/will command big money:
O'Meara, Martin, GAJ, Prestia, Bennell, McKenzie, Swallow, Matera, Rischitelli...

Then you have the talls...

Even if they WANT to stick together.. I doubt they can fit them all..

 

[blitzer]

I feel like no matter how good GWS and Gold Coast are, there will still be other good teams around at the same time and they will be capable of winning a match against them with a bit of luck. I mean just think about all the times you've seen a team lose due to things like goal kicking inaccuracy. The best team does not always win and injuries do happen.

I guess my point is even their lists fulfill all their promise, things can and do happen that stop a team winning premierships year after year after year. Also from my personal viewpoint I won't respect their achievements in the first decade because I don't think they will have earned their successes, they have been gift-wrapped this scenario.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Huh, I thought we had a thread about that Butcher guy for some reason.


Anyway, yeah. Unless a bunch of GWS/GCS players decide to go home/chase money the next decade will be dominated by the two. Most premiership sides have 4-5 superstars and a bunch of decent players; these two are pretty much all superstars with a few decent players. I think once the novelty of a flag or two has worn off we'll see a few jump ship to play at home for a club they supported as a kid or whatever.

 

[Smokin]

As much as I rate the GC, I think they will be sweating a bit.

GWS have put thing together to a tee I reckon, and highlighted by their talls seemingly all hitting the jackpot. Boyd and Kelly didnt even play in that game yest.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Premierships are ****ing difficult to win. Let's not start engraving GWS and GCS on the trophies just yet.

 

[Smokin]

GWS FINALLY came to the party at the end of last year and realised they need a ruckman (thanks Sydney for Mumford) and some decent 'mature' bodies (thanks Collingwood for Shaw and Geelong for Hunt) and they looked a whole lot more solid as a result.

Not sure there was any 'finally' about it - they planned this. The first 2 years were always a write-off, why do what GC did a stuff up by getting too many 27 odd year olds who wont be there for your tilt.

Write the years off, get games into a bunch of kid guns, get the help for the window. I think they will have another good off season with getting rid of some surplus talent, then look out!

 

[Yoda_]

How scary was the GWS forward line with Patton (3 goals) and Cameron (4 goals) ? And to think Boyd (4 goals) kicked goals in the reserves

 

[Zach Package]

GWS are primed for a talent raid, whereas comparatively speaking, GC look to have their shit together, with the only highish talented pick not getting games (that's not injured) is Luke Russell by my count.

Tom Boyd (#1 pick) (although he's a rookie, it's not like he'd come straight in at the expense of Patton
Jed Lamb (#21 iirc) talented, but relegated to being a bit player at best.
Josh Kelly (#2) again a rookie, but would walk into probably 10 other sides on what i've seen.
Matt Buntine (#5) hasn't even had a decent chance to justify his draft position.
Lachie Plowman (#3) Had his fair share of injuries, don't see where he fits though
Jonothan O'Rourke (#2) Again injured, but again, who comes out of that side, they can only play so many midfielders.
Will Hoskin-Elliott (#5) Exceptional talent, can't make anything more than sporadic sub appearances.
Kristian Jaksch (#11 iirc) again only in his second year, but there's no way he breaks into the side with so many quality talls.
Cam McCarthy (#14) Explosive underage forward, they're trying to turn him into a CHB, such are their riches.

Dylan Shiel was their sub yesterday ffs, he's almost the best midfielder u21 in the country

3 conclusions, The AFL really overdid it with GWS, It's an awful time for the Saints to bottom out and finally, we need to get some of these blokes.

 

[IggypopsTshirt]

The integrity we hear the AFL power brokers constantly refer to as being of utmost importance has been sold for a chance at tapping into a new source of cash flow. The league has sold its soul. In time, the resulting backlash will be savage, but the architect has already planned and will shortly be making his escape.

 

[yaco55]

Much over-reaction by less than learned judges. One premiership between GWS and GC by 2020 is feasible, and two is an outside chance. There is no chance of domination - Or put this way, every club has a chance to dominate the competition, though history shows this rarely happens.

 

[calyam]

Much over-reaction by less than learned judges. One premiership between GWS and GC by 2020 is feasible, and two is an outside chance. There is no chance of domination - Or put this way, every club has a chance to dominate the competition, though history shows this rarely happens.

I'm not saying that I believe in the GC / GWS domination hypothesis but there is no historical precedent for the concessions received by GC and in particular GWS. It could end up with a massive talent raid but it is just as likely that they remain dominant for a lengthy period of time. For now though the level of talent - realised or expected - is simply incredible.

 

[Smokin]

Much over-reaction by less than learned judges. One premiership between GWS and GC by 2020 is feasible, and two is an outside chance. There is no chance of domination - Or put this way, every club has a chance to dominate the competition, though history shows this rarely happens.

Oh excuse me, we have a learned friend in the house!

history has never shown a competition handicapped by a draft and salary cap compared to clubs without those contraints.

And why are you limiting this to 2020? Boyd and Kelly will only be 24-25. Wanna bet they will win more than one by 2024, their current window?

Ill buy you a High Mark membership if GC and GWS cant snag more than one flag by then.

 

[Smokin]

For now though the level of talent - realised or expected - is simply incredible.

This seems to be it, even more so than the GC, GWS seem to be hitting the jackpot everywhere. I was hoping they would have as many hits as misses, but it doesnt loook like the case for the pointy end talent.

They had 10 first rounds picks, many who look good, who couldnt get a game in the team that beat Sydney. Amazing.

 

[BrunoV]

I'm not saying that I believe in the GC / GWS domination hypothesis but there is no historical precedent for the concessions received by GC and in particular GWS. It could end up with a massive talent raid but it is just as likely that they remain dominant for a lengthy period of time. For now though the level of talent - realised or expected - is simply incredible.

That's right. If there was ever a chance to throw history out the window it is now.

The only salvation is salary cap pressure.

 

[Pweter]

That's right. If there was ever a chance to throw history out the window it is now.

The only salvation is salary cap pressure.

I think a group of kids building towards something unprecedented together will ease the salary cap pressure. GWS/GC will keep their core group of elite talent ensuing the ones they keep don't cause any friction, have the club's best interests at heart, are motivated and have an enormous desire for success.

They will shed players, of that there is no doubt, but the volume of elite talent left over will be of a far greater proportion than that on the list of the established clubs and give them a huge chance of long term success which players would be mad to not want to be a part of.

 

[rines]

History can't provide a guide, as we have never seen this before. We have never seen what effect allowing two clubs to basically share the 'cream' of talent for 3-4 years would have.. and it wasn't like it was 1-2 priority picks.. we are talking 15 of the top 20 picks in three years running...

 

[hurlygurdy]

Someone should go back to 2002 and do a hypothetical GWS and GC scenario with the drafts back then. What would their lists have looked like after development?

 

[Old Campaigner]

I think a group of kids building towards something unprecedented together will ease the salary cap pressure. GWS/GC will keep their core group of elite talent ensuing the ones they keep don't cause any friction, have the club's best interests at heart, are motivated and have an enormous desire for success.

They will shed players, of that there is no doubt, but the volume of elite talent left over will be of a far greater proportion than that on the list of the established clubs and give them a huge chance of long term success which players would be mad to not want to be a part of.

Shedding players won't be the end of it. Unless a bunch leave via free agency there will be a lot of high draft picks heading their way in exchange for the departing players. And of course we could well see some pretty handy free agents nominate those clubs in an attempt to share in their success.

 

[fishardansin]

GWS are primed for a talent raid, whereas comparatively speaking, GC look to have their shit together, with the only highish talented pick not getting games (that's not injured) is Luke Russell by my count.

Tom Boyd (#1 pick) (although he's a rookie, it's not like he'd come straight in at the expense of Patton
Jed Lamb (#21 iirc) talented, but relegated to being a bit player at best.
Josh Kelly (#2) again a rookie, but would walk into probably 10 other sides on what i've seen.
Matt Buntine (#5) hasn't even had a decent chance to justify his draft position.
Lachie Plowman (#3) Had his fair share of injuries, don't see where he fits though
Jonothan O'Rourke (#2) Again injured, but again, who comes out of that side, they can only play so many midfielders.
Will Hoskin-Elliott (#5) Exceptional talent, can't make anything more than sporadic sub appearances.
Kristian Jaksch (#11 iirc) again only in his second year, but there's no way he breaks into the side with so many quality talls.
Cam McCarthy (#14) Explosive underage forward, they're trying to turn him into a CHB, such are their riches.

Dylan Shiel was their sub yesterday ffs, he's almost the best midfielder u21 in the country

3 conclusions, The AFL really overdid it with GWS, It's an awful time for the Saints to bottom out and finally, we need to get some of these blokes.

So what you're talking about is the other 16 clubs fighting for their scraps. Like Brisbane dominated for 4 years we will have the one-two punch going on for over 6 years. I think that next year Ablett, Swallow, O'Meara, Martin, Prestia , Bennel and whoever else I've forgotten will be unstoppable.

GWS will be even better, but a year behind.

This year is the last chance to win a flag this decade, at least. With careful list management they could be trading out guys that are almost surplus to them but worth first round picks to ensure that they have 2 first round picks every year through this dominance.

The only way that it can be stopped is if all the other 16 clubs colude to run coordinated raids on their lists

 

[BrunoV]

I think a group of kids building towards something unprecedented together will ease the salary cap pressure. GWS/GC will keep their core group of elite talent ensuing the ones they keep don't cause any friction, have the club's best interests at heart, are motivated and have an enormous desire for success.

They will shed players, of that there is no doubt, but the volume of elite talent left over will be of a far greater proportion than that on the list of the established clubs and give them a huge chance of long term success which players would be mad to not want to be a part of.

I tend to agree that they probably won't lose anyone that really hurts until after much, if not all, of the damage has been done.