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Opinion The Last Supper

  • Thread starter Thread starter Heckler
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Which of our aging players will be cooked by years end?


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The problem with that though is, you're putting Kelly somewhere where he isn't necessarily the best option, and you're denying games to someone who needs them. Bartel did his job up forward this season, it's hard to dispute that. I find it a little harder to justify keeping Kelly in ahead of a specialist small defender, who will be a lot quicker and obviously younger.

Baring injury kelly will play 16+ games, for most of the Kelly was really good down back, he average 21 disposals a defender but people just remember his last two games which were his worst for the year. I can't see Scott playing Bews in front of him when he is likely to get half of that. The only way I see us instituting a youth policy is if we have an awful start to the year,(something like 2 wins, 5 losses to start the year)

most of Bartel's clearances are from stoppages where the ball will be locked inside forward 50 and so forth.

Bartel 41 clearance, 13 centre clearance(rank 8th), 28 stoppage clearances, as a fulltime forward
Kelly 28 clearance 11 centre clearance(rank 9th), 17 stoppage clearances as a fulltime defender
This suggests to me that when they were put in the middle they were still winning centre clearances.
 
13 center clearances in 23 games, that is hardly winning clearances.
Take that R9 game against Fremantle for example where he was put into the centre square and he didn't win a single centre clearance.

I think your living in the past 10lana, Jimmy was terrific 6-8 years ago but these days, virtually every midfielder is now 6ft'2 and built like a brick. He was taken away from the middle for a reason, his versatility but more importantly, the head knocks were risking his career.


Looking at the round 9 game, Bartel wouldn't be the only one who had a poor game that night.
Kelly-3 centre clearances :D
Varoce-2
Murdoch-2
Guthrie-1
Selwood-1
Hunt-1
Horlin-Smith-1
Duncan-1

The equation isn't 13 clearance out of 23 games, its 13 clearances out of how many centre bounces he attended, he can't win a centre bounce if he is lining up in the forward pocket, can he. It wouldn't surprise me if he and kelly are still winning a large percentage of the stoppages that they actually attend.

Another thing I am toying with is the marginal benefit of having players attending a clearance, From example if we have Simpson as the Ruckman, Selwood and Guthrie at the centre square, how many more likely are we in win the clearance if we have Caddy as the third midfielder as opposed to say Stokes.
 
13 center clearances in 23 games, that is hardly winning clearances.
Take that R9 game against Fremantle for example where he was put into the centre square and he didn't win a single centre clearance.

I think your living in the past 10lana, Jimmy was terrific 6-8 years ago but these days, virtually every midfielder is now 6ft'2 and built like a brick. He was taken away from the middle for a reason, his versatility but more importantly, the head knocks were risking his career.

Yep, I'd almost guarantee he still has the knowledge, but the reflexes aren't the same now. Add a decline in legspeed and a gradual dip is inevitable. Same with Kelly.

I'd be perfectly happy if Guthrie, and Caddy, and Horlin-Smith and whoever else stay in the centre square all season (in support of Selwood and Johnson). Their best footy is either ahead of them or starting now; every minute they spend there is now invaluable.
 

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Another thing I am toying with is the marginal benefit of having players attending a clearance, From example if we have Simpson as the Ruckman, Selwood and Guthrie at the centre square, how many more likely are we in win the clearance if we have Caddy as the third midfielder as opposed to say Stokes.

Would be a huge job to work that out.

Here's the Hawthorn game. Rnd 20 or whatever it was.

Hmac - Selwood - Duncan - Caddy Lost
Hmac - Hartman - Duncan - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Motlop (on Mitchel) Lost
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won

2/4
Hmac - Selwood - Duncan - Caddy Won
Hmac - Hartman - Duncan - Caddy Won Note the first 2 setups were the same in both 1/4's
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Hartman - Even
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Stokes Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Duncan - Caddy Won

All looks pretty much the same line ups doesn't it?
Things are about to change. Except for the skipper, there's pretty much someone different at every bounce.

3/4
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Lost
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Christensen Won
Hmac - Caddy - Guthrie - Christensen Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Motlop - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Duncan
Lost
Hmac - Selwood - Blicavs - Duncan Lost (This one is just weird. And we lost it naturally).

4/4
Blicavs - Selwood - Stokes - Christensen Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Stokes - Christensen Lost
HMac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won (So once in the 2nd half we had what seems to be our preferred setup)
HMac - Selwood - Guthrie - Christensen Lost
HMac - Selwood - Caddy - Bartel Won
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Bartel - Even
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Bartel Won
Hmac - Selwood - Duncan - Bartel - Even
 
Would be a huge job to work that out.

Here's the Hawthorn game. Rnd 20 or whatever it was.

Hmac - Selwood - Duncan - Caddy Lost
Hmac - Hartman - Duncan - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Motlop (on Mitchel) Lost
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won

2/4
Hmac - Selwood - Duncan - Caddy Won
Hmac - Hartman - Duncan - Caddy Won Note the first 2 setups were the same in both 1/4's
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Hartman - Even
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Stokes Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Duncan - Caddy Won

All looks pretty much the same line ups doesn't it?
Things are about to change. Except for the skipper, there's pretty much someone different at every bounce.

3/4
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Lost
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Christensen Won
Hmac - Caddy - Guthrie - Christensen
Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Motlop - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Duncan
Lost
Hmac - Selwood - Blicavs - Duncan Lost (This one is just weird. And we lost it naturally).

4/4
Blicavs - Selwood - Stokes - Christensen Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Stokes - Christensen Lost
HMac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won (So once in the 2nd half we had what seems to be our preferred setup)
HMac - Selwood - Guthrie - Christensen Lost
HMac - Selwood - Caddy - Bartel Won
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Bartel - Even
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Bartel Won
Hmac - Selwood - Duncan - Bartel - Even

I've already imported this game into Excel when I made up some summary tables. It was good work on your part, it gave me a lot of ideas on types of information you can get from knowing who was at each center bounce. I am going to do a similar thing next year every week, with more data I'll be able to make wide variety of comparisons and between our midfielders and ruckman.
 
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I've already imported this game into Excel when I made up some summary tables. It was good work on your part, it gave me a lot of ideas on types of information you can get from knowing who was at each center bounce. I am going to do a similar thing next year ever week, with more data I'll be able to make wide variety of comparisons and between our midfielders and ruckman.
And look who Scott put into the middle for the first time after hawthorn had kicked all the bolded goals ;)
 
I've already imported this game into Excel when I made up some summary tables. It was good work on your part, it gave me a lot of ideas on types of information you can get from knowing who was at each center bounce. I am going to do a similar thing next year every week, with more data I'll be able to make wide variety of comparisons and between our midfielders and ruckman.
Wow that would be very much appreciated - and not just by me I would guess.
 
The problem with that though is, you're putting Kelly somewhere where he isn't necessarily the best option, and you're denying games to someone who needs them. Bartel did his job up forward this season, it's hard to dispute that. I find it a little harder to justify keeping Kelly in ahead of a specialist small defender, who will be a lot quicker and obviously younger.
Guess we'll find out in February, Partridge, but in principle I agree.

Interesting decisions ahead.
 
Would be a huge job to work that out.

Here's the Hawthorn game. Rnd 20 or whatever it was.

Hmac - Selwood - Duncan - Caddy Lost
Hmac - Hartman - Duncan - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Motlop (on Mitchel) Lost
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won

2/4
Hmac - Selwood - Duncan - Caddy Won
Hmac - Hartman - Duncan - Caddy Won Note the first 2 setups were the same in both 1/4's
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Hartman - Even
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Stokes Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Duncan - Caddy Won

All looks pretty much the same line ups doesn't it?
Things are about to change. Except for the skipper, there's pretty much someone different at every bounce.

3/4
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Lost
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Christensen Won
Hmac - Caddy - Guthrie - Christensen
Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Motlop - Guthrie - Caddy Won
Hmac - Selwood - Guthrie - Duncan
Lost
Hmac - Selwood - Blicavs - Duncan Lost (This one is just weird. And we lost it naturally).

4/4
Blicavs - Selwood - Stokes - Christensen Lost
Blicavs - Selwood - Stokes - Christensen Lost
HMac - Selwood - Guthrie - Caddy Won (So once in the 2nd half we had what seems to be our preferred setup)
HMac - Selwood - Guthrie - Christensen Lost
HMac - Selwood - Caddy - Bartel Won
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Bartel - Even
Blicavs - Selwood - Guthrie - Bartel Won
Hmac - Selwood - Duncan - Bartel - Even

All I am getting from this is that Hartman was in 3 of them (Won, Won & Even) so basically have him starting every centre bounce in 2015 and we are unbeatable ;)
 
Yeah there was an incident a week or two before.
Remember he went for a bit of a screamer, landed awkwardly and went off with an ankle issue.
Pretty sure he did come back on.

But I reckon that was the issue.

I remember that vision…

Went for a spoil I thought came down landed on opposition players foot - looked like a very solid inversion sprain. Limped off got the magic ice/spray, strapped and came back on after a spell.

Agree - that I don't think it was ever right again.

GO Catters
 

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