The List: This Time Next Year

[BigSexc]

I know there is already a predictions thread, but i think this one is a bit more specific to OUR list and where its going. And I like predictions, especially when they blow up in peoples faces. We also have a week off.

Looking at the list going into 2011, it seems to me extremely hard to find ANY players that wont have a spot on it at this time next year (besides maybe scully.. touch wood, *touches wood*).
I would be interested to see what you, my fellow board members think about our list and who needs a big year to retain their spot. Would be especially interested to hear what all those EXTREME optimists have to say, you know who you are.
As they say, somethings* gotta give

*in this case someone

All the talk in the Dunn thread about people wanting him delisted got me thinking. Most of those Dunn haters are no where to be seen. Let all the haters now come out of their caves, put on some pants and make a bold prediction underlining which players you believe will have to make way if they dont show something like Dunn did last year.

Look at the list a nominate 3 players (keeping in mind new draftees cannot be delisted)


Bail, Rohan
Bartram, Clint
Bate, Matthew
Bennell, Jamie
Blease, Sam
Cook, Lucas
Davey, Aaron
Davis, Troy
Dunn, Lynden
Frawley, James
Garland, Colin
Gawn, Max
Green, Brad
Grimes, Jack
Gysberts, Jordan
Howe, Jeremy
Jamar, Mark
Jetta, Neville
Jones, Nathan
Jurrah, Liam
Macdonald, Joel
Maric, Addam
Martin, Stefan
McDonald, Tom
McKenzie, Jordie
Moloney, Brent
Morton, Cale
Petterd, Ricky
Rivers, Jared
Scully, Tom
Spencer, Jake
Strauss, James
Sylvia, Colin
Tapscott, Luke
Trengove, Jack
Warnock, Matthew
Watts, Jack
Wonaeamirri, Austin

 

[d33my]

Bate - Was a regular 22 starter back in the 07-09 days but now I think our young'uns have the better (bater?) of him. Will have to have a Dunn-like transformation, otherwise he's heading down a Miller like path.

Martin - All signs are pointing towards him getting at least a few games this year. He needs to grab this opportunity with both hands, otherwise our other developing ruckman will start to breathe down his neck and he may be in trouble.

And the big one, putting my balls on the line

Morton - I'll be watching him closely this year (he's my adopt a demon, or whatever) but this is really make or break for Cale. I read somewhere (probably from an unsubstantiated source on here) that come 2012 onwards we'll be looking to land some big, experienced talent to help us get a flag, and if Cale doesn't show that he deserves to be part of that flag this year he might be put up as some attractive trade bait to help get a deal done.

 

[demonfromupnorth]

These three players need a big year;


Bate, Matthew – pick 13, 2004
Has a new 2 yr contract, but last seasons form was poor (19 goals from 15 games), 83 senior games.

Martin, Stefan – pick 3 (pre season draft) 2008
Hip problems last yr, only managed 2 senior games (29 overall)

Strauss, James – pick 19, 2008
Knee reco in 2009, 2 senior games in 2 years.

 

[Ageing Demon]

Well BS if TS goes that only leaves 2 - 3 in real danger.
With Injuries to date Blease and Strauss will need to have promising years or they appear the ones in most danger.
Add Maric who has been around a while.
so the players are ( in no particular order )
Strauss
Blease
Maric
And here is one from left field Wona.
I know he is the darling of quite a few but a hand full of good games in 3 years!
Another bad injury might be the deciding factor.

 

[bing181]

All of the above (though think Strauss might have a couple of years to prove himself), plus others who might only have one more year to show something:

Tom Mcdonald
Maric
Newton
Warnock
Wonna

As the younger brigade starts to mature and ripen, think that the difference between the haves and have nots will become more obvious. Certainly imagine though that we'll be looking to move on a half dozen or so, and given that we have no obvious retirements coming up, could be a nervous end of season for a few of the lads.

I also think that there could be one or two surprise trades.

 

[Demon 86]

Tough- very tough. This would be unorthodox but best way in my view:

Newton (rookie) (and finally!!!)
McNamara (rookie)
Maric (re-drafted as rookie)
Martin (re-drafted as rookie)
Warnock - trade if offer available, or re-draft as rookie in place of Martin or one of the other rookies.


Not convinced about Maric- despite reports of a great pre-season. But the above way means we keep him anyway.

I like Warnock, but he's a depth player. Hopefully McDonald surpasses him in next year or two.

Martin may prove me wrong and I hope he does as he's a really good bloke!

 

[Demon 86]

Also guys- worth Referencing the official contracts thread for this. Tom McDonald and Strauss are contracted until 2012.

 

[Sylvia Saint]

I'd say Warnock, Wona, Martin and Maric are the obvious 4 at this stage. Someone like Neville Jetta maybe as well could be in strife with a poor year, even though I rate him.

Bait could be used as trade bate.

 

[Topkent]

These three players need a big year;


Bate, Matthew – pick 13, 2004
Has a new 2 yr contract, but last seasons form was poor (19 goals from 15 games), 83 senior games.

Martin, Stefan – pick 3 (pre season draft) 2008
Hip problems last yr, only managed 2 senior games (29 overall)

Strauss, James – pick 19, 2008
Knee reco in 2009, 2 senior games in 2 years.

JAKE SPENCER
with the new sub rules and with the younger more mobile blokes coming up behind him may get left behind in modern footy



completely agree with those 3 mate especially stef martin i think he is lucky to still be there now

warnock maybe because he aint young and maric because of the hype yet he doesnt really seem close to cracking the senior side

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

bate, could very well be worth more to us as potentially resting a first rounder from another club

jetta, has shown very limited amounts... i like him, but i'm not sure how prudent it would be to have him on the list... a big year in the vfl keeps him on though for mine, purely as competition for places

spencer, has had some time, with gawn and martin looking decent, he needs to step up... gawn i see as our premier big man come 2014-15 although martin could overtake him imo, has come back in great shape for the 2011 season

 

[BigSexc]

bate, could very well be worth more to us as potentially resting a first rounder from another club

jetta, has shown very limited amounts... i like him, but i'm not sure how prudent it would be to have him on the list... a big year in the vfl keeps him on though for mine, purely as competition for places

spencer, has had some time, with gawn and martin looking decent, he needs to step up... gawn i see as our premier big man come 2014-15 although martin could overtake him imo, has come back in great shape for the 2011 season

pretty much disagree with everything you said.. where to start..?

there is no way anyone would give up a first rounder for bate. most clubs have many averagely skilled medium forwards that dont kick goals, why trade a first rounder for one?

Jetta has shown a HEAP! has so much grunt and defensive prowess. may not be quick but when he gains more confidence i can see him being a very good player. was good on the weekend as well.. has shown more than strauss, blease, tapscott, gysberts, maric and IMO bennell and wona. i love this kid, hoping he has a big year in the AFL!!

gawn had barely played a VFL game and you are hailing him as a premiership ruckman. atm gawns goal should be to play ONE afl game.

 

[Gazza_11]

Blease, Strauss, Spencer, Newton, McNamara.

Backing Maric and Bail to gun it this year.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Newton, McNamara and Bate*. Wouldn't have thought anyone else was in immediate danger.

*Bate may not quite be on the precipice just yet.

Don't see how people can be nominating Blease, the kid has simply had awful luck with injuries.

 

[Demon 86]

Here is a list of players out if contract at seasons end. Unless someone breaches club regulations they will never be delisted whilst under contract.

Out of contract end of 2011

Jake Fitzpatrick
Max Gawn
Brad Green (Upgraded to Veterans List)
Jordan Gysberts
Addam Maric
Stefan Martin
Cale Morton
Tom Scully
Colin Sylvia
Matthew Warnock
Austin Wonaeamirri
Campbell, Robert (Rookie)
Evans, Michael (Rookie)
Johnston, Cameron (Rookie)
Lawrence, Kelvin (Rookie)
McNamara, Tom (Rookie)
Michael Newton (Given 1 year rookie extension)


Saying that anyone else won't be on the list is a waste of time unless they're traded.

 

[melbournemartin]

There is no chance of Cale Morton being delisted. Sure, he mightn't live up to the hype of the #4 pick we took him at but he's no dud.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

pretty much disagree with everything you said.. where to start..?

there is no way anyone would give up a first rounder for bate. most clubs have many averagely skilled medium forwards that dont kick goals, why trade a first rounder for one?

Jetta has shown a HEAP! has so much grunt and defensive prowess. may not be quick but when he gains more confidence i can see him being a very good player. was good on the weekend as well.. has shown more than strauss, blease, tapscott, gysberts, maric and IMO bennell and wona. i love this kid, hoping he has a big year in the AFL!!

gawn had barely played a VFL game and you are hailing him as a premiership ruckman. atm gawns goal should be to play ONE afl game.

clubs not giving up a first rounder for bate? first rounders will go out to about pick 24 again next year, i would think that is entirely feasible compensation for bate, players like brock mclean and travis johnstone have gone for mid teen picks, and they were both average players

jetta has not shown a heap, and with our current small/medium forward and midfield options i don't know if he get that much gametime over the next 3 years

tapscott and gysberts are better players (from their junior years) and jetta hasn't shown enough at afl level to change my opinion regarding that

you see, i actually had watched gawn before he was drafted, and i said premier ... not premiership, big men take time and gawn was one of the best big men in the 2009 afl draft

he showed some good enough signs at the intra club, if he develops as expected he definately could be a great ruck option in the future

 

[blured]

lock up martin and gawn for 5-6 years they both have raw talent

look at leigh brown now. big blokes just take longer to mature...

 

[Davis333]

clubs not giving up a first rounder for bate? first rounders will go out to about pick 24 again next year, i would think that is entirely feasible compensation for bate, players like brock mclean and travis johnstone have gone for mid teen picks, and they were both average players

No way is Bate worth a first rounder at the moment. Not after the season he just had. And not in a compromised draft. Most teams will really want to keep there first pick.
If he regains his 09 form then maybe. But if he does regain that form then i doubt we would trade him.

At the moment I wouldn't mind giving up our 2nd round pick and Bate for a pick around 10-14

 

[TheBoss]

At the moment I wouldn't mind giving up our 2nd round pick and Bate for a pick around 10-14

Any other club that would take that trade during a compromised draft has rocks in their head

 

[LITTLE STINGA]

clubs not giving up a first rounder for bate? first rounders will go out to about pick 24 again next year, i would think that is entirely feasible compensation for bate, players like brock mclean and travis johnstone have gone for mid teen picks, and they were both average players

I agree with you. I wouldn't be wanting anything less than a top 30 pick for him. He's a proven goal kicker who kicked 19 goals in what was an ordinary year for him.

He is also strong but the problem with him is that he is too slow and he isn't as flexible as Dunn, if we didn't have Dunn he would be in our best 22. Krakouer was swapped for pick 25 I can't see why Bate wouldn't be a better recruit than him.

My 3 most likely to go ATM would be Warnock, Bate and Martin.

 

[LITTLE STINGA]

Here is a list of players out if contract at seasons end. Unless someone breaches club regulations they will never be delisted whilst under contract.

Out of contract end of 2011

Colin Sylvia

Are you sure? Staggering to think he hasn't been linked to GWS. I would go for him before I went for Scully if I was GWS.

 

[Demon 16]

Some interesting opinions here. Im not going to comment on the rookies, but on the senior list we are looking pretty god now. I wouldnt even consider dropping guys like Bail, Jetta and Strauss yet - they need at least 2 more years each in the system.

The only ones are probably Bate, Maric and Warnock being used as trade bait. And potentially Stephan Martin being delisted if he has a very bad season.

Any of the above mentioned would be well worth re-drafting as rookies as well.

 

[Demon 86]

Are you sure? Staggering to think he hasn't been linked to GWS. I would go for him before I went for Scully if I was GWS.

I thought that too- but yeah here's the article.

If Scully re-signs before Sylvia expect a circus re his signature.

http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/7415/newsid/85298/default.aspx

 

[Davis333]

Any other club that would take that trade during a compromised draft has rocks in their head

True. It should have read. If he improves from last year.

 

[richskee]

Any word on Sylvia signing? Or is he waiting for the end of the season too.

If he improves on his consistency, You can almost guarantee that GWS will either pinch Scully or Sylvia.

Also, Gysberts?? Give the man a contract. That's 3 HUGE contracts that we need to get signed. Frustrating.