Analysis The Matt Taberner effect

[G Mus]

Why Hale ahead of Lyons?

When they don't improve it's Lyon's fault, when they do improve it's someone else's fault

 

[M_rash]

I like that he hasn't sooked or whinged whenever he's been told to go back to Peel to work on something. The number of times that's happened to him, I wouldn't begrudge him, especially when Cam and Kersten seemed to get games unconditionally. Seems he's got a great relationship with the group and he has said he's settled in WA. IMO he's re-signing, just holding out on either more money/years/playing time.

He also said he hasn't even talked to his management yet. I doubt he's holding out on anything. Maybe his manager is trying to squeeze the best offer out of Freo (as he should), but I wouldn't be surprised if Tabs hasn't got anything to do with it. "I play football. I run lots. I no speak to manager. I just sign paper when it's ready"

Actual quote below;
"I haven't spoken with management yet. I think we're just waiting for the end of the finals series and we'll see what happens," Taberner told AFL.com.au.

 

[freoextra]

Why Hale ahead of Lyons?

Hale is the forwards coach and has been credited with the change to Tabs marking, positioning and running patterns. Hale was one of the best tall forward marking options in the business for a couple of years, I think you will find that he has played a significant role in Tabs recent development.

 

[Lach72]

Grabinar, ha ha I like it. That's what's turned me around this last season or so. He just didn't have a good enough mark to be a decent tall at one point. Besides those few freaks around the league that have freaky good hands, he's definitely as good as you'd expect from an AFL tall. The fact that it's improved so much should be reminder that you don't want to judge too quickly. He's starting to use his body better too in recent times. As long as he's tracking in the right direction, and he is, there's no reason he doesn't stay.

Imagine the development to come with Cox.

He already has those hands

 

[gungho]

Tabs is such an interesting case. In his first 20 games I thought there was no way this bloke would be an afl footballer. He dropped his head after dropping marks, had poor body language, was ultra timid around the contest, and just did not look to have it physically, or mentally.
Obviously, someone at the club saw something that we all didn't because, after his form for WAFL and AFL over the last 18 months, I honestly reckon this guy will be a 200 game player for the club. (if he stays)

 

[DaveLister]

When you look at the 8 games Taberner played this year there is a clear divide between his top 5 games and his bottom 3 games.
So I did some calculations for ease of comparison

It's worth noting the circumstances of the bottom 3 games, not as an excuse but for analysis
Round 9: Win over carlton in the rain
Round 10: Whole team slaughtering by Adelaide in the rain
Round 11: Loss to Collingwood, never looked like winning

I think Taberner is capable of a season where his averages are that of his top 5/8 (or close).
We've seen his ceiling: 4 goals 1, 9 marks 7 contested, 18 touches 13 kicks against Essendon.

If he can average his top 5/8ths in a year he'd be very good, not a saviour but very good.

 

[electricfeel]

My 2 cents:

KPF's take time, look at Hawkins and we are not going to get a decent KPF through trading, no one wants to come

Crabinar is slowly turning into Grabinar with his marking improving over time

If he decides to stay we should give him two more years minimum on 400k + bonuses for games played, number of goals

If he leaves we should get a 2nd rounder

Are you the fella that always yells out "bring back Graberner!!!" at games?

 

[Crippledbrewer]

Are you the fella that always yells out "bring back Graberner!!!" at games?

Yep especially when Crabinar takes the field!

 

[Freomaniac]

If Tabener is going to kick 30-35 a season as out tall forward as a primary target it is not a good enough return. We need a KPF kicking 50 plus a year and I just don't see this coming from him. He feels too rigid and one dimensional and lacks an X factor the marquee KPFs in the comp possess.

He is great depth but that is it at the moment. Happy for him to prove me wrong.

I just had to quote this.... What I will say next is this, half of this will be Tabs related the other half will e forward line related.

I will go off topic but mention our forward line. Ok 1st off. One begs the question.... Would you rather pay 1 million a year for a tall forward like a Josh Kennedy or Buddy franklin that can kick 60-80 goals a season? Or pay 1 million on 2 players that can kick 60-80 goals between them or 30-40 goals each? Imagine if Freo had mitch McGovern who is a 190 cm 90 kg 2nd tall or CHF and Josh Jenkins who is 198cm and 100 kg that can ruck too? Both are capable of kicking 60-80 goals between themselves.

Go look at the crows forward line. Imagine if freo had that forward line the crows have got in Tex, Jenkins, Betts, Lynch, McGov and Cameron. that would be a good forward line.

Now I know Pav to us was that once in a generation, possibly once in a life time type forward Freo had. Yet Cam McCarthy and Shane Kersten got 50 goals between them. Pav in his Prime got 50-70 goals a year regardless on how freo went.

But back on the topic....If Tabs plays all 22 games and kicks 30-35 goals, Doesn't mean he is horrible. If Tabs plays all 22 games in 2018, there will be a domino effect. Hell add a well developed Forward/ruck in Apeness and Strnadica as a CHF, Cam and Kersten wont get the number 1 tall defender or get double teamed.

Tabs is 199cm and 102kg. Cam McCarthy is 192 cm and 93 kg and kicked 25 goals. If Tabs plays each week, he is more likely to get 2 defenders on him. If Tabs gets double teamed each week and kicks 25-30 goals, Then I would be happy to see McCarthy or Kersten get the 3rd best defender and kick 40-50 goals a season.

At GWS, McCarthy was the 3rd tall behind Jeremy Cameron and Jono Patton and kicked 35 goals as a 2nd year player. In 2017, Cam kicked 25 goals as the main tall up forward. Big difference.

 

[Freomaniac]

As I previously said, get another KPF to work with Tabs and Cam and I could see all three kicking 40 goals each, which is why i'm saying pick 5, whether that be to draft a KPF or use it to trade in a KPF is the most important bit of business for us this trading period. It's the final piece of the spine that we can finally structure the rest around.

So they should. His KPIs should be set at 30 goals per season (ball park figure). Eligible for bonus at 40 or 45 or 50....some sort of sliding scale. If he does get around 50 goals per season the he's probably worth the 500k. Buddy averages around 60 goals per season and he's sitting on 8-900k so I'd be happy paying Tabs 500k if he kicks over 50 goals.

I dont really think we have to book someone in for XXX per season without having KPIs to get it

Only 7 players in the AFL kicked 50 or more goals this year, all of them in teams with a much higher average score per game than Freo. Methinks your standards are a touch high.

There are two Tabses: the dry weather one and the wet weather one. The former is pretty good. Elite mark, pretty handy up and down the wings, straightens up the structures, probably averages two goals a game. The latter is ******* shithouse. Do the benefits of keeping the dry weather Tabs outweigh keeping the wet weather one? Will the wet weather one get better? I don't know but right now I'm leaning towards persevering with him.

Cam McCarthy kicked 35 goals in his 2nd year at GWS because he was the 3rd tall behind Jono Patton and Jeremy Cameron. Kersten kicked 23 goals in 18 games last year as a 2nd tall behind Tom Hawkins.

Cam in 2017 kicked 25 goals as the main forward. Shane Kersten kicked 24 goals for freo this year.

As I said, If Tabs plays each week and is double tagged and kicks 25-30 goals, its a small price to pay if Cam or Kersten or both kick 40 goals each.

Or if Apeness or Strnadica develops into a 30-40 goal a season ruck/forward and Tabs is the FF, That means Cam or kersten get the 3rd tall and can still kick 40 goals a year as well.

 

[imperial_oz]

Cam McCarthy kicked 35 goals in his 2nd year at GWS because he was the 3rd tall behind Jono Patton and Jeremy Cameron. Kersten kicked 23 goals in 18 games last year as a 2nd tall behind Tom Hawkins.

Cam in 2017 kicked 25 goals as the main forward. Shane Kersten kicked 24 goals for freo this year.

As I said, If Tabs plays each week and is double tagged and kicks 25-30 goals, its a small price to pay if Cam or Kersten or both kick 40 goals each.

Or if Apeness or Strnadica develops into a 30-40 goal a season ruck/forward and Tabs is the FF, That means Cam or kersten get the 3rd tall and can still kick 40 goals a year as well.

Thats the kind of logic that often goes missing on BF....and at club level.

When Tabs played as second tall to Pav, he drew a defender and Pav from memory averaged a goal per game more. Unfortunately structural improvements don't get recognised and as Tabs didn't kick a bag each week, he got dropped. Tabs isn't a power forward but he's a second tall behind a power forward. Get a Lobb or Hogan and just leave Tabs running around the forward line in a different area. He'll get some goals while dragging a defender. The big forward will get more as a result.

Kersten won't ever be a 40 goal a season player but Cammac might. We've seen what Kersten has to offer but only Cammac has a big upside. For mine, Kersten is a 3rd tall depth.

Ideal situation is <insert name here> power forward, Tabs and Cammac. Add in Bennell and Sonson. Fyfe and Mundy drifting forward to break up the defensive plans.

Its going to require a forward coach and a different team structure to what we are employing, so I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Joao]

You can't just say Cam + Kersten = Pav though. It would be Pav and someone else. Even if that is Mayne who was only good for 20-30 goals that makes it

Cam + Kersten = 35 + 30 (being generous) = 65
vs
Pav + Mayne = 50 + 25 (being harsh) = 75

Every team gets 22 players. You can't just equate two mediocre players for 1 and say you are breaking even because you are not.

If it worked like that, then those stupid trades where someone offers 3 spuds for 1 gun would actually make sense, but they don't.

For the record I want to keep Tabs and think he should play next year.

 

[Okinakashi]

Tabs is 199cm and 102kg

The main problem I have with him is that acts as if he's a 12 year old schoolgirl.

Sometimes he's as soft as the offspring of a jellyfish and a seaslug resting on a feather bed eating marshmallows.

Someone needs to buy him a life size cardboard cut out of himself and ballaz with the instructions to look at both every night ams say out loud - I'm the big one, I'm the big one.

In saying that, he's been really good for Peel in the back half of the year and if he remembers he's one of the biggest men on the field each day, I think he'll go OK.

 

[wayToGo_]

When Tabs played as second tall to Pav, he drew a defender and Pav from memory averaged a goal per game more. Unfortunately structural improvements don't get recognised and as Tabs didn't kick a bag each week, he got dropped. Tabs isn't a power forward but he's a second tall behind a power forward. Get a Lobb or Hogan and just leave Tabs running around the forward line in a different area. He'll get some goals while dragging a defender. The big forward will get more as a result.

Would be great if it were true. But Pav actually kicked more goals on average when Tabs wasn't playing last year. 10 goals in 5 games when Tabs not playing. 21 goals in 13 games when both were playing. I agree with the idea though.

 

[Freomaniac]

You can't just say Cam + Kersten = Pav though. It would be Pav and someone else. Even if that is Mayne who was only good for 20-30 goals that makes it

Cam + Kersten = 35 + 30 (being generous) = 65
vs
Pav + Mayne = 50 + 25 (being harsh) = 75

Every team gets 22 players. You can't just equate two mediocre players for 1 and say you are breaking even because you are not.

If it worked like that, then those stupid trades where someone offers 3 spuds for 1 gun would actually make sense, but they don't.

For the record I want to keep Tabs and think he should play next year.

Funny you say that.... But Say that Cam McCarthy and Shane Kersten kicked combine total of 66 goals a year between them, that's exactly 3 goals a game between the 2. not a Bad Effort. If we had a KPF that could kick 66 goals a season, that would be very good.

As for the Smalls.... Seeing 2 of our smalls kick 66 goals between 2 small blokes wouldn't be unrealistic either. So make it Walters kicking 40 and one of Ballantyne/Grey/Bennell/Langdon/weller to kick 26. Again, that wouldn't be impossible.

Again... I can not see any of our current talls be capable of kicking 60 goals in a season. I can See guys like Tabs, Apeness, Strnadica, cox all capable of kicking 30-40 goals a season each if given 22 games and a good organised forward structure

 

[Joao]

Funny you say that.... But Say that Cam McCarthy and Shane Kersten kicked combine total of 66 goals a year between them, that's exactly 3 goals a game between the 2. not a Bad Effort. If we had a KPF that could kick 66 goals a season, that would be very good.

As for the Smalls.... Seeing 2 of our smalls kick 66 goals between 2 small blokes wouldn't be unrealistic either. So make it Walters kicking 40 and oe of Ballantyne/Grey/Bennell/Langdon/weller to kick 26. Again, that wouldn't be impossible.

Again... I can see any of our current talls be capable of kicking 60 goals in a season. I can See guys like Tabs, Apeness, Strnadica, cox all capable of kicking 30-40 goals a season each if given 22 games and a good organised forward structure

Yes 66 goals would be good. We should be aiming to find a KPF capable of such. Sure it might not happen but it should be the aim.

 

[LeftFootBanana]

The problem with playing a small forward line that requires the midfield to hit a target is that forward entries tend to be shallow. When the leading target doesn't mark, the ball has an alarming tendency to go back over the midfield's head. And then we get scored against.

It's obvious that Ross prefers deep entries with the forwards needing to make sure that they apply pressure to keep the ball inside forward 50. All those times when we've bombed the ball in has been it's been in spite of our structure rather than to accommodate it.

Unfortunately we haven't had the personnel to make a contest that consistently brings the ball to the ground if they don't mark. I suspect that this has been one of the things that Tabs has been required to work on.

Tabs and a BIG KPF (Ape or Hodor perhaps) would make life a lot easier for Ballas, Cam Mac, Bennell, Crozier, Kersten et al to play their roles.

 

[mike91]

The problem with playing a small forward line that requires the midfield to hit a target is that forward entries tend to be shallow. When the leading target doesn't mark, the ball has an alarming tendency to go back over the midfield's head. And then we get scored against.

It's obvious that Ross prefers deep entries with the forwards needing to make sure that they apply pressure to keep the ball inside forward 50. All those times when we've bombed the ball in has been it's been in spite of our structure rather than to accommodate it.

Unfortunately we haven't had the personnel to make a contest that consistently brings the ball to the ground if they don't mark. I suspect that this has been one of the things that Tabs has been required to work on.

Tabs and a BIG KPF (Ape or Hodor perhaps) would make life a lot easier for Ballas, Cam Mac, Bennell, Crozier, Kersten et al to play their roles.

Yeah I totally agree. But that's where it becomes poor coaching. Coach at AFL let alone u12's should be demanding the midfielders to lower the eyes. Look at our forward line, bombing it in achieves no goals for us, but rebound goals for the other team.

On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Steinfreo]

**** tabs **** kersten **** macarthy. they are all rubbish. sorry im drunk but they are all inadequate. our real forward isnt even playing for us yet abd we are going to squander fyfes prime because we are going to be mediocre up forward like carlton were for all those years. **** our forward line a part from sonny. you are awesome all the talls can **** off and be replaced. 5 year of being average for sure. and well have a new coach before we are good again.

 

[Deveraux]

Ever tried happy drunk?

 

[Deathly]

**** kersten **** macarthy. they are all rubbish

Hear, hear.

 

[FreoMonocle]

**** kersten **** macarthy. they are all rubbish..

We needed to take off the door, but it was raining, didn't want to get wet by going out to the shed for a screwdriver - so we got a butter knife from the kitchen. Yes a butter knife can function to a degree as a screwdriver, but we've asked 2x3rd talls to play as kpf's and get angry that they semi-kinda-sorta work but are inadequate for the job.

 

[Freomaniac]

**** tabs **** kersten **** macarthy. they are all rubbish. sorry im drunk but they are all inadequate. our real forward isnt even playing for us yet abd we are going to squander fyfes prime because we are going to be mediocre up forward like carlton were for all those years. **** our forward line a part from sonny. you are awesome all the talls can **** off and be replaced. 5 year of being average for sure. and well have a new coach before we are good again.

Let me guess, yu want Colin Sylvia and Jack Anthony back at our club?

 

[imperial_oz]

We needed to take off the door, but it was raining, didn't want to get wet by going out to the shed for a screwdriver - so we got a butter knife from the kitchen. Yes a butter knife can function to a degree as a screwdriver, but we've asked 2x3rd talls to play as kpf's and get angry that they semi-kinda-sorta work but are inadequate for the job.

If you don't mind but stop making sense.

Theres no room for that here. This is FigBooty you toff.

Actually this what I and many other have been saying all year. Playing 2 very similar players (Kersten and McCarthy) makes it a one dimensional forward line. One defensive tactic works on both, so no plan B required. Tabs, while definitely NOT a power forward at least added another dimension requiring defenders to compete against 2 different kinds of players.

Getting a real power forward adds a third dimension that only the very best can adequately overcome.

That was also one of the key criticisms of Lyon when Pav was here. He played a one dimensional forward line in Pav and let Pav get double or triple teamed. We papered over the crack in that plan simply because Pav was good enough to perform even under extreme conditions.

Bugger me. If people in the stands can see these things, why can't our couching panel?

 

[imperial_oz]

Let me guess, yu want Colin Sylvia and Jack Anthony back at our club?

KFC wants Sylvia back. Sales of chicken nuggets has dropped by alarming levels