The NBA 2010/11 Thread

[DT_35]

Love the $2.60 on offer for Detroit tomorrow against Sacramento.
I don't mind Detroit & don't rate Sacra that highly, Detroit have a solid starting 5 (Wallace/Daye/Rip/Prince/Stuckey) and then Villanueva & Gordon off the bench. I'll be puttin' some $$$ on them

 

[twarby]

Been doing a bit more research tonight. So far this year there have been 137 games played with 89 of those games decided by 1-10 points (65%).

From what I can see $2.60 seems to be the absolute minimum that a 1-10 bet pays.
65% is approx 1.50 so if you bet on both teams @ 0.5 units each you would have 1 unit @ 1.30 as a bare minimum. This of course doesn't account for upsets as Toronto beating the Magic which was $7.75 (3.87 on 1 game from 0.5 units) which gives you a lot of free bets to make up for the losses.

I am starting to think 0.5 units on each team could be profitable long term. I will start tomorrow by putting $1 on each team 1-10 so that I am not throwing away too much money if my theory goes **** up.

If anyone has a site which has the winning margins for all games it would be much appreciated.

would love some stats for previous seasons, if it is also around 65% this could prove a great system for long term gain

 

[Bic]

Latest Injury Report as of 14th November, 2010.

[F] = Forward
[C] = Centre
[G] = Guard

ATLANTA

[F] 13/11/2010 - Pape Sy out indefinitely ( Back )

BOSTON

[C] 13/11/2010 - Jermaine O'Neal "?" Monday vs Atlanta ( Knee )
[C] 01/10/2010 - Kendrick Perkins out indefinitely ( Knee )
[G] 13/11/2010 - Delonte West expected to miss Monday vs Atlanta
[G] 16/10/2010 - Avery Bradley out indefinitely ( Ankle )

CHARLOTTE

[F] 18/10/2010 - Dominic McGuire expected to miss 5-7 weeks ( Shin )
[F] 14/10/2010 - Eduardo Najera out indefinitely ( Hernia )
[C] 09/11/2010 - Kwame Brown out indefinitely ( Ankle )
[F] 13/11/2010 - Tyrus Thomas "?" Monday vs Minnesota ( Personal )

CHICAGO

[F] 01/11/2010 - Carlos Boozer out indefinitely ( Hand )

CLEVELAND

[G] 13/11/2010 - Maurice Williams "?" Tuesday vs Philadelphia ( Groin )
[F] 13/11/2010 - Anderson Varejao "?" Tuesday vs Philadelphia ( Ribs )

DALLAS

[F] 12/11/2010 - Caron Butler "?" Monday vs New Orleans ( Back )
[G] 27/10/2010 - Rodrigue Beaubois out indefinitely ( Ankle )

DENVER

[F] 14/10/2010 - Kenyon Martin out indefinitely ( Knee )
[F] 14/10/2010 - Chris Andersen out indefinitely ( Knee )

DETROIT

[F] 06/10/2010 - Jonas Jerebko out at least 5-6 months ( Achilles )
[G] 07/10/2010 - Terrico White out indefinitely ( Foot )
[F] 11/11/2010 - Chris Wilcox out indefinitely ( Hamstring )

GOLDEN STATE

[F] 12/11/2010 - David Lee expected to miss 2 weeks. ( Elbow )
[F] 19/10/2010 - Louis Amundson expected to miss 6 weeks ( Finger )
[F] 15/07/2010 - Ekpe Udoh expected to miss 6 months ( Wrist )

HOUSTON

[G] 07/11/2010 - Aaron Brooks expected to miss 4-6 weeks ( Ankle )
[C] 11/11/2010 - Yao Ming expected to miss 1 week ( Leg )
[F] 13/11/2010 - Chase Budinger is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. New York

INDIANA

[F] 13/11/2010 - Tyler Hansbrough injured last game, "?" Tuesday vs Atlanta
[C] 06/11/2010 - Jeff Foster expected to miss 2 weeks ( Ankle )

LA CLIPPERS

[G] 13/11/2010 - Baron Davis out indefinitely ( Knee )
[G] 12/11/2010 - Randy Foye expected to miss 1 week ( Hamstring )
[C] 09/11/2010 - Chris Kaman is downgraded to expected to miss 2-3 weeks

LA LAKERS

[C] 28/10/2010 - Andrew Bynum out at least another 4 weeks ( Knee )
[C] 13/11/2010 - Theo Ratliff "?" Sunday vs. Phoenix ( Knee )

MIAMI

[F] 21/10/2010 - Mike Miller out until January ( Thumb )

MILWAUKEE

[G] 21/10/2010 - Michael Redd out indefinitely ( Knee )
[G] 26/10/2010 - Chris Douglas-Roberts out 3-4 weeks ( Eye )
[F] 13/11/2010 - Carlos Delfino "?" Tuesday vs LA Lakers ( Head )
[G] 13/10/2010 - Darington Hobson out for season ( Hip )

MINNESOTA

[G] 12/10/2010 - Jonny Flynn out indefinitely ( Hip )
[G] 09/11/2010 - Luke Ridnour expected to miss a week ( Hamstring )
[G] 25/10/2010 - Martell Webster expected to miss at least 6 weeks
[F] 13/11/2010 - Nikola Pekovic injured last game
[G] 13/11/2010 - Wayne Ellington is downgraded to expected to miss

NEW JERSEY

[F] 13/11/2010 - Terrence Williams "?" Monday vs LA Clippers ( Abdominal )

NEW YORK

[F] 13/11/2010 - Ronny Turiaf "?" Sunday vs. Houston ( Knee )
[G] 18/10/2010 - Kelenna Azubuike out indefinitely ( Knee )

OKLAHOMA CITY

[F] 24/10/2010 - Nick Collison expected to miss at least 3 weeks ( Leg )
[F] 13/11/2010 - Jeff Green "?" Sunday vs San Antonio ( Ankle )

PORTLAND

[C] 04/11/2010 - Fabricio Oberto has retired ( Heart )
[G] 04/11/2010 - Elliot Williams out for season ( Knee )
[C] 28/09/2010 - Greg Oden out indefinitely ( Knee )
[C] 08/10/2010 - Joel Przybilla hopes to return Nov. 26 against New Orleans
[G] 13/11/2010 - Brandon Roy injured last game, "?" Tuesday vs Memphis

SAN ANTONIO

[G] 11/11/2010 - James Anderson expected to miss 8 weeks ( Foot )

TORONTO

[F] 13/11/2010 - Linas Kleiza "?" Tuesday vs Washington ( Achilles )
[G] 13/11/2010 - Leandro Barbosa "?" Tuesday vs Washington ( Shoulder )
[F] 13/11/2010 - Reggie Evans "?" Tuesday vs Washington ( Flu )
[F] 10/10/2010 - Ed Davis expected to miss 7-10 weeks ( Knee )

UTAH

[C] 18/10/2010 - Mehmet Okur out indefinitely ( Achilles )

WASHINGTON

[F] 07/10/2010 - Josh Howard out indefinitely ( ACL )
[F] 13/11/2010 - Yi Jianlian injured last game, doubtful Tuesday vs Toronto

 

[Rough_Edges]

My plays for tomorrow:

I think the T'Wolves have been good lately, pushed the Lakers at the Staples centre, were really good defensively against the Kings and then back at home had a huge last quarter running over the top of the Knicks, seemingly gaining confidence from these performances and KLOVE 30-30 game i'm gonna bet on them keeping this game close. Although, I'm still relatively confident that the Hawks will win but I don't think this will be a blow out and i'm tipping a relatively low scoring game. The Hawks haven't beaten the spread once at home (0-5) and with an 11 point spread I can't see them covering it. The Hawks' haven't scored over 100 since there run came to an end against Phoenix and they haven't really got there offence going since, shooting over 50% in 5 of there first 7, they've yet to reach that 50% barrier since the 7th of this month. It's hard to pick which plays I want to take from this game. I like the Under 205, Hawks to win by 10 or less and I like the Minnesota line at +11 but I'm not sure I am confident to bet on the Hawks winning after there past 4 performances.

So i'm going to take, The Timberwolves at the +11 and The under 205.

___



Plays for 15/11

____
Houston vs. Knicks - Over 216 @ 1.90 - 1.5 units
____
T'Wolves +11 vs. Atlanta @ 1.91 - 1.2 units
T'Wolves vs. Atlanta - Under 205 @ 1.90 - 1.2 units
and multi these selections @ 3.62 - 0.6 units
____

T'Wolves +11 into Knicks WIN into T'Wolves/Atlanta Under 205 @ 6.20 - 0.5 unit

YTD Outlay: 55.7 units
YTD Bets: 43 (/18/20)
YTD Return: (52.6 +1.9 units)

good luck all

 

[Rough_Edges]

btw meant to pick the unders for the Knicks vs. Houston game but accidentally pressed over LOL ffs rookie error.

Ah well, will cheer on some Knicks bombs but can't see them going over with the Rox having no Brooks/Yao but you can always hope

 

[Poizun]

sticking to 1% to 5% plays of your bankroll and you can not possibly go bust, thats ofcourse you keep a winning strikerate and arnt an absolute hack

Guess I shouldn't be playing 100/200 Holdem with a $2,000 BR haha

 

[twarby]

Guess I shouldn't be playing 100/200 Holdem with a $2,000 BR haha

only if ya got the nutz

 

[Goldencats]

What do ppl think will happen in the Lakers v Suns game? traditionally this is a high scoring, close match, but I just feel 216.5 is a but high despite the recent encounters between the 2, Lakers will get the job done but I'm trying to see where the value is, perhaps Suns +9.5?

 

[Rooke takes King]

todays bets: -.36 units
WTD(DAY 2): +3.28 units
YTD: +22.1 units

Bets 15/11
2 units minnesota +11 @ 1.91
2 units knicks/rockets < 216 @ 1.87
2 units suns + 9 @ 1.91

 

[sblack]

Bookies don't learn sometimes.

I've used this formline to success recently, so why move away.

Tony Parker Over 7.5 assists (1.83) and Over 16.5 points (1.83) v OKC - I've followed this before, and won. Parker averages 8.2 assists per game. OKC have given up 10+ assists to PGs in their past 5 or so games. Points have been similar. PGs have been scoring 17+ in the same games. I think the average over the past 5 or so it around 18 points and 11 assists. Straightforward in my eyes.

I seriously don't think this will continue though. Surely Westbrook starts to shut down some PGs.

Russel Westbrook Under 8.5 assists v SA @ 2.00 - 8 games and only 1 player has over 7 assists v SA. That was Eric Gordon. This run has included restricting top PGs like Chris Paul (5 assists) and Steve Nash (7), both who are in the top 6 for assists per game this season.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Added 2 bets

2 Units Spurs +2.5/Lakers $2.29- Love the spurs here, they have beaten OKC in past 4 and they are without Green... OKC still aren't putting full games together... Spurs could make them pay here.. Portland had a chance to do this the other day when they got around 7-9 up but didnt take that chance... Lakers should be too good at home and angry after first loss + they love beating the suns..

1/2 Unit multi of Spurs, Pistons, Lakers paying $7- Love this bet.. want to load up on Pistons +5 or $2.65 ML some more but will just stick with my initial bets on them for now and add this multi....

 

[demon_fanatic]

Nice it looked dodgy all game but Minnesota cover easily in the end only losing by 6 pretty sure no one really took Atlanta so most of us should be off to a nice start

i added several $1 and $2 multis just to play around.. basing them around Detroit/Spurs for good odds.. some in excess of $20 and $30-1 haha.. cant be bothered listing them all though!! oh i better incase i look like a liar if any SOMEHOW come up. hoping for a bigger one to come up, but even put sacramento/okc in a couple of them even though they are the teams i am pulling against.. kinda as cover... my 1 UNit win on Minnesota covers these stupid bets in a way lol so just a bit of fun


$5 detroit +4.5, OKC, Lakers $3.95
$2 detroit, spurs, houston, LA -9 $25.39
$2 detroit +4.5, spurs +2.5, knicks, lakers $7.37
$1 Detroit, spurs HT/FT, knicks HT/FT , LA/Pho +216.5 $37.98
$1 Spurs, LA ht/ft , houston/New york +214.5 $6.24
$2 Det HT/FT, Spurs HT/FT, LA HT/FT $18.92
$1 Detroit 11+, LA/LA/Spurs/Spurs $35
$1 Sac, Okc, LA/LA, Nyork $6.15

 

[RoosterLad]

I'm liking Detroit today, pretty big line and the Pistons are in good form while Sactown are struggling.

1.5 Units - Detroit +5.0 @ 1.91


Just getting that one in early, will have a look at some more. Maybe Spurs at the line as well.

 

[carn tigez]

1 Unit Detroit 1-10 @ $3.60
1 Unit New York -2.5 @ $1.91
1 Unit Detroit +4.5, Lakers and New York @$3.80

YTD: +1.75 units

 

[Borgsta]

If you had an hour or so, you could do it for the past 25 years with basketball reference; you'd just have to manually input "Over X+11, Under X" in Game Finder for a range of X values since bball reference doesn't have a margin option.

I think you'd be wasting your time though - the book would already have this data included in its model.

yeah I'll get on that tomorrow on my day off.

I'm sure the bookies do but I'm also pretty sure they wouldn't take into account games early in the season being more unpredictable.

Thanks!

 

[baywatch5]

Went 2/3 and +1.86 units over weekend.

Mondays plays

*PARLAY (SPURS +10.5 @ OHC / ROCKETS +10.5 @ NY / PHX @ LAKERS) 1.2units @ $1.83
*DOUBLE (SPURS @ OHC / ROCKETS @ NY) 0.55units @ $4.84


YTD: 33 - 20 - 13
BANK: +10.53 UNITS

 

[Cruiser23]

15/11

ATS : 18 - 17 - 2 (-1.09 Units)
O/U : 4 - 4 (+0.58 Units)
H2H : 1 - 2 (-2.13 Units)
H2H Margin: 0 - 1 (-0.5 Units)
Player T/H2H : 1 - 3 (-3.55 Units)
Multi : 2 - 3 (-0.46 Units)
Quarters: 1 - 1 (-0.75 Units)
Halves: 0 - 1 (-3 Units)
Line/OU: 1 - 0 (+5.20 Units)
Other : 1 - 1 (+4.00 Units)

YTD : 29 - 32 - 2 (-2.25 Units)

No plays, haven't had time...

 

[IDIG]

I'm gonna run with Borgsta's theory although without the margin for today.

1 unit - Pistons @ 2.75
1 unit - Spurs @ 2.23
1 unit - Rockets @ 2.27
½ unit - Suns line @ 1.91

I ran a spreadsheet yesterday and if you had bet on the roughie on each night you'd be up 35 units over 35 games over the last 10 days. 45 units if you included the 1-10 margin. Now that i've put my money on it, no doubt that trend is about to come to an end.

EDIT: added Suns line bet

 

[jo172]

Today 1 unit on MIN+11 (done) into LAL+PHX over 216.5 at 3.60

and

1 unit on HOU into DET at $4.80

 

[Hodgepodgey]

I've been betting on NBA for years and lately i've been reading and using some of the tips here! I've decided to start making some posts now with my bets hopefully they are good ones!

2.5 Units S.A against OHC $2.15
OHC have been cutting it very close in their wins this season And since already having a negative record against Spurs in other seasons when they have been playing much better than they are now, Spurs will be just tooooo good for them i think.

4 Units Lakers -9.5 against Phoenix $1.87
Phoneix have not been impressive at all this season despite their last win against Sacramento. They have especially been poor against the decent teams this season, and i expecting and hoping for a blow out by the Lakers in this one!

 

[demon_fanatic]

us detroit backers would have no worries if they grabbed the boards!! 10 offensive rebounds to 2 in Kings favour already!! not even at half time wow

 

[jerry springer]

The Thunder always seem to give the Spurs the fits so am taking Thunder winning margin 1-10.5 @ 2.60 multied with NY over houston winning margin 1-10.5 @ 2.60

all up $20 @ 6.76

 

[RoosterLad]

Adding:

SAS/OKC over 207 - 1 Unit @ 1.90

 

[Borgsta]

The Thunder always seem to give the Spurs the fits so am taking Thunder winning margin 1-10.5 @ 2.60 multied with NY over houston winning margin 1-10.5 @ 2.60

all up $20 @ 6.76

Spurs have won 4 of the last 5 matchups.

All 5 have been decided by less than 10 points.

 

[jerry springer]

Spurs have won 4 of the last 5 matchups.

All 5 have been decided by less than 10 points.

cheers for the info.thought Thunder might have won a couple more than that,but yes they are always close matches.