The next Media rights deal (2023-?)

NoobPie

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 21, 2016
Posts
4,279
Likes
2,786
AFL Club
Collingwood
#51
This is not looking good for the major sports on FTA

Aussie TV networks fail to stem the bleeding as viewers look elsewhere



  • Adam Turner
  • The quarterly viewing figures paint a scary picture for Australia's television broadcasters as younger viewers tune out in droves.

Nielsen, OzTam and Regional TAM's 'Australian Video Viewing Report' tries to put on a brave face every three months, having changed its name from the Australian Multi-Screen Report to put a positive spin on the fact that we're looking elsewhere for our video entertainment.
  • The report proudly proclaims that "two thirds of 18-24 year-olds, who are traditionally among the lightest TV viewers relative to the overall population, watched broadcast TV channels weekly in the latest quarter". In other words, one third of them can go for a week watching absolutely no broadcast television.
    The year-on-year drop in the amount of time Australians spend watching broadcast television is accelerating across the board. Photo: Australian Video Viewing Report & Australian Multi-Screen Report
    Rusted-on seniors are keeping the numbers from plunging into freefall, but even they are gradually weaning themselves off traditional television. Broadcasters are sitting on a demographic time bomb, as you can be sure when today's middle-aged Australians become senior citizens they won't go flocking back to broadcast television.
Interesting. From an AFL perspective it is almost certain that there will be live, advertising-paid fee-access of some games and content in its next rights deal from 2023, whether that medium is FTA TV or something else. Question is, will it be able to maintain the $150m it got in the current deal?..
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

JohnZ

Club Legend
Joined
Mar 10, 2016
Posts
2,185
Likes
2,459
AFL Club
Geelong
#53
I fit into the 18 to 24 category. The last time I used a TV set would have been the Grand Final. I watch all my TV on the Laptop. Unlike scripted Drama/Comedy, the AFL will be fine. People want to watch live sport on a big screen in HD, that won't change. One day maybe you'll need to watch it via Netflix or Youtube or Twitch, but I don't see the demand going down. The AFL might have to take a paycut though, as those services put the whole cost onto the consumer rather than through advertisers. But, live sport is a different kettle of fish, and we may see them go to some advertising ala Foxtel.
 

Gigantor

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
May 13, 2012
Posts
14,543
Likes
4,647
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Brumbies, Socceroos
#54
This trend as been ongoing for years - none of us are going to be surprised that it will continue throughout the current deal.

By the end of the deal, the difference between traditional FTA and streaming will be non-existent - it will all be one and the same thing - and live "big time" sport will still be in high demand.
 

kaypee

All Australian
Joined
Aug 21, 2008
Posts
635
Likes
471
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls
#55
This trend as been ongoing for years - none of us are going to be surprised that it will continue throughout the current deal.

By the end of the deal, the difference between traditional FTA and streaming will be non-existent - it will all be one and the same thing - and live "big time" sport will still be in high demand.
And where sport makes their money will becom targeted advertising, which is what Facebook do now. sports will collate as much info from subscribers as possible, then serve them up to advertisers. I reckon sports rights might explode again, particular for member heavy sports, simply because they can collate a lot of info to sell from members.
That's not to say free to air is dead, just that they'll have to buy that info off the sports
 
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Posts
1,319
Likes
732
AFL Club
GWS
#56
This is not looking good for the major sports on FTA

Aussie TV networks fail to stem the bleeding as viewers look elsewhere



  • Adam Turner
  • The quarterly viewing figures paint a scary picture for Australia's television broadcasters as younger viewers tune out in droves.

Nielsen, OzTam and Regional TAM's 'Australian Video Viewing Report' tries to put on a brave face every three months, having changed its name from the Australian Multi-Screen Report to put a positive spin on the fact that we're looking elsewhere for our video entertainment.
  • The report proudly proclaims that "two thirds of 18-24 year-olds, who are traditionally among the lightest TV viewers relative to the overall population, watched broadcast TV channels weekly in the latest quarter". In other words, one third of them can go for a week watching absolutely no broadcast television.
    The year-on-year drop in the amount of time Australians spend watching broadcast television is accelerating across the board. Photo: Australian Video Viewing Report & Australian Multi-Screen Report
    Rusted-on seniors are keeping the numbers from plunging into freefall, but even they are gradually weaning themselves off traditional television. Broadcasters are sitting on a demographic time bomb, as you can be sure when today's middle-aged Australians become senior citizens they won't go flocking back to broadcast television.
Perhaps the way AFL ratings are officially measured are UNDERESTIMATING viewership, at least according to Roy Morgan polling.

The official figures for the 2017 AFL GF, Aust.wide (ie includes regions), was 3,520,000; & NRL GF Aust.wide 3,390,000 (Given the NRL GF was on Sunday evening PRIME Time, & AFL GF on Sat. afternoon "dead time", this represents a major win for the AFL GF).
Roy Morgan, however, has concluded the true figures for both the AFL & NRL GF's were MUCH higher ie those watching in pubs/clubs/big household "party" groups are not being captured by the official measuring systems.

The confusing aspect is that it is in the commercial interests of FTA/Foxtel, in order to increase the value of their broadcasts, to record accurately & capture these "communal" viewing masses. If Roy Morgan is more accurate, why are the broadcasters continuing with inaccurate, lower measuring systems? If Morgan is even only partially more accurate, it reinforces the commercial importance for FTA/Foxtel to again procure the AFL & NRL (easily Aust.'s two most popular spectator sports) rights in 6 years' time. The A League Ch.10 game last Sat. night, PRIME time, had a nationwide 5 Metro viewership of only 36,000 in total -staggering!

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7...omparison-september-october-2017-201710032246

Morgans Poll showed a total of 8,400,000 people 18 y.o.+ watched the AFL GF; & 6,500,000 people 18
y.o.+ watched the NRL GF. These Morgan figures include those who watched the GF's on apps, websites, as well as pubs, clubs etc.
This is also a MAJOR discrepancy with the usual differential between the AFL & NRL.
Morgan states Polling was done by "SMS Snap Polling...which was also EXTREMELY(my emphasis) accurate at the last two Federal elections".
 
Last edited:

Our Game

Club Legend
Joined
Sep 30, 2014
Posts
1,776
Likes
1,037
Location
Sandringham
AFL Club
Geelong
#57
Food for thought for all AFL clubs and fans

http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...and-nrl-should-take-note-20171122-gzr2d4.html

The NFL is struggling. The AFL and NRL should take note


John McDuling

Rituals (the watching of football) is especially relevant this year for the business world – many well-paid media executives will be sweating on it continuing.

The National Football League, which is the nation's most popular and valuable TV sport and a key pillar of the multibillion-dollar media industry (the league alone generates $US13 billion [$17.1 billion] in revenue each year, more than the likes of Qantas and AMP), is in the midst of a nightmare season.
 

NoobPie

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 21, 2016
Posts
4,279
Likes
2,786
AFL Club
Collingwood
#58
Food for thought for all AFL clubs and fans

http://www.theage.com.au/business/m...and-nrl-should-take-note-20171122-gzr2d4.html

The NFL is struggling. The AFL and NRL should take note


John McDuling

Rituals (the watching of football) is especially relevant this year for the business world – many well-paid media executives will be sweating on it continuing.

The National Football League, which is the nation's most popular and valuable TV sport and a key pillar of the multibillion-dollar media industry (the league alone generates $US13 billion [$17.1 billion] in revenue each year, more than the likes of Qantas and AMP), is in the midst of a nightmare season.
It certainly seemed to me like the last line "...Maybe it's time our own sports stopped slavishly copying it " was shoe horned in at the end to justify the headline
 
Joined
Nov 16, 2004
Posts
53,171
Likes
67,440
Location
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
#59
The_Wookie don't know if you saw this article from March last year but it goes thru the history of the last lot of TV rights in all of Oz sports. It also gives some historical figures. But it also discusses how digital platforms are already and will further change how sports viewing is consumed. Doesn't give a projected value for future rights.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/medi...-tv-great-rights-battles-20170323-gv58z9.html
The 1967 NSWRFL grand final, between South Sydney and St George, was the first football final of any code to be televised live in Australia, after the Nine Network paid what now seems like the modest sum of $5000 for the broadcast rights. Adjusting for inflation, it is the equivalent of $61,000 in today's money. Just a decade later, Melbourne's HSV7 paid $1 million for the rights to the VFL grand final. The deal was $500,000 for the live match, and a further $500,000 for the replay rights. All up, that's the equivalent of $5 million in today's money.
.....
"I can tell you that, right now, the AFL and NRL have dedicated teams looking at the future of sport rights, what is happening all over the world, and have an eye to what the playing field will be like in 2022," says the industry veteran, who cannot be named due to contract obligations. "You only have to look overseas, where telecommunications companies and internet companies are becoming major players in sports rights. Who's to say that Nine and Seven won't be competing with Telstra, Apple and Facebook in five years?"
http://www.smh.com.au/business/medi...-tv-great-rights-battles-20170323-gv58z9.html
 

RUNVS

Hall of Famer
Joined
Feb 28, 2007
Posts
32,984
Likes
29,259
Location
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
#61
The_Wookie don't know if you saw this article from March last year but it goes thru the history of the last lot of TV rights in all of Oz sports. It also gives some historical figures. But it also discusses how digital platforms are already and will further change how sports viewing is consumed. Doesn't give a projected value for future rights.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/medi...-tv-great-rights-battles-20170323-gv58z9.html
The 1967 NSWRFL grand final, between South Sydney and St George, was the first football final of any code to be televised live in Australia, after the Nine Network paid what now seems like the modest sum of $5000 for the broadcast rights. Adjusting for inflation, it is the equivalent of $61,000 in today's money. Just a decade later, Melbourne's HSV7 paid $1 million for the rights to the VFL grand final. The deal was $500,000 for the live match, and a further $500,000 for the replay rights. All up, that's the equivalent of $5 million in today's money.
.....
"I can tell you that, right now, the AFL and NRL have dedicated teams looking at the future of sport rights, what is happening all over the world, and have an eye to what the playing field will be like in 2022," says the industry veteran, who cannot be named due to contract obligations. "You only have to look overseas, where telecommunications companies and internet companies are becoming major players in sports rights. Who's to say that Nine and Seven won't be competing with Telstra, Apple and Facebook in five years?"
http://www.smh.com.au/business/medi...-tv-great-rights-battles-20170323-gv58z9.html
I fully expect that one day google will buy the TV rights to the AFL and they will broadcast every match live on youtube so people watch the AFL on their internet televisions and google customises the ads for every single person and they also track every second of the match in terms of how many people are watching, and the demographics of everyone watching as well, something that can't be done in any great detail with usual TV ratings.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Nov 16, 2004
Posts
53,171
Likes
67,440
Location
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
#62
I fully expect that one day google will buy the TV rights to the AFL and they will broadcast every match live on youtube so people watch the AFL on their internet televisions and google customises the ads for every single person and they also track every second of the match in terms of how many people are watching, and the demographics of everyone watching as well, something that can't be done in any great detail with usual TV ratings.
Nup, sports is made for HD and big TV screens. Until Google and co can make it that they broadcast their stuff on your normal TV they aren't going to get the rights in any major way. Might have to make a cable that lets you link it all up, but if sports in their home market want to piss off their fans then sell it like you suggested.

The EPL rights were sold to Optus in Oz, not in the UK market, so the EPL didn't piss off ther fans in UK like they pissed off their Oz based fans. Watching footy on your mobile phone or TV screen is shit compared to HD TV on a 110+cms screen.
 

NoobPie

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 21, 2016
Posts
4,279
Likes
2,786
AFL Club
Collingwood
#64
I fully expect that one day google will buy the TV rights to the AFL and they will broadcast every match live on youtube so people watch the AFL on their internet televisions and google customises the ads for every single person and they also track every second of the match in terms of how many people are watching, and the demographics of everyone watching as well, something that can't be done in any great detail with usual TV ratings.
Big chance of something like this. Most smart TVs have YouTube already and the next tv rights period isn't until 2023 when smart tv penetration will dwarf Stv penetration. This fact will make it ripe for google. At the very least this is where the "competitive tension" will come from next cycle
 

Billy ray

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Nov 10, 2013
Posts
7,846
Likes
11,644
Location
The Valley near the Alley
AFL Club
Gold Coast
#65
hmm, if the rights sell for say 20% less than current, I wonder if the AFLPA and AFL may say we want to play 20% less games, and we finally get the 17 game season that would be the fairest season with 18 teams....
 

NoobPie

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 21, 2016
Posts
4,279
Likes
2,786
AFL Club
Collingwood
#66
hmm, if the rights sell for say 20% less than current, I wonder if the AFLPA and AFL may say we want to play 20% less games, and we finally get the 17 game season that would be the fairest season with 18 teams....
Bit of a catch 22 there

If the rights sell for 20% less they'll be for the same amount of games presumably
 

Billy ray

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Nov 10, 2013
Posts
7,846
Likes
11,644
Location
The Valley near the Alley
AFL Club
Gold Coast
#67
Bit of a catch 22 there

If the rights sell for 20% less they'll be for the same amount of games presumably
ah yes true, chicken and egg..
maybe if they see writing on the wall so to speak they can offer up a few scenarios
current 18 team, 22 round + 9 game final series
current 18 team, 17 round + 9 game finals
current 18 team, 18 round (one return rival game) + 9 game finals
 

NoobPie

Premiership Player
Joined
Sep 21, 2016
Posts
4,279
Likes
2,786
AFL Club
Collingwood
#68
ah yes true, chicken and egg..
maybe if they see writing on the wall so to speak they can offer up a few scenarios
current 18 team, 22 round + 9 game final series
current 18 team, 17 round + 9 game finals
current 18 team, 18 round (one return rival game) + 9 game finals
Or

17 + 5 + finals!
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Joined
Nov 16, 2004
Posts
53,171
Likes
67,440
Location
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
#70
When was the last time major TV sporting rights value went backwards for the #1 or #2 sports in North America, Europe or Oz since 1984 Olympics when those TV rights set the standard for big increases?? I can see them stagnating but not going backwards, especially by 20% or $500m based on the last deal.

You will need a massive recession for them to go backwards. Sports around 2008 GFC delayed negotiating for rights to ride over the hump even though we missed any recession in Oz.

Even in the early '00's, the only exception I am aware were big sports rights have gone down was when the German Kirch Group that had several Euro league TV rights and a couple of World Cups rights went into receivership in about 2002. I think the Vivendi group was involved in this as well. But it wasn't for long as the rights were sold off and then renegotiated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirch_Group

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivendi
 
Last edited:

rfctiger74

Premium Platinum
Joined
Aug 22, 2009
Posts
43,915
Likes
81,634
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
76'ers
#71
When was the last time major TV sporting rights value went backwards for the #1 or #2 sports in North America, Europe or Oz since 1984 Olympics when those TV rights set the standard for big increases?? I can see them stagnating but not going backwards, especially by 20% or $500m based on the last deal.

You will need a massive recession for them to go backwards. Sports around 2008 GFC delayed negotiating for rights to ride over the hump even though we missed any recession in Oz.

Even in the early '00's, the only exception I am aware were big sports rights have gone down was when the German Kirch Group that had several Euro league TV rights and a couple of World Cups rights went into receivership in about 2002. I think the Vivendi group was involved in this as well. But it wasn't for long as the rights were sold off and then renegotiated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirch_Group

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivendi
The year the ABC broadcast? Don't know tbh
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Joined
Nov 16, 2004
Posts
53,171
Likes
67,440
Location
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
#72
The year the ABC broadcast? Don't know tbh
You talking about 1987 VFL coverage? Broadcom paid higher TV rights fees than 7 offered and paid the previous years. Broadcom on sold them to 10 and to ABC who paid $1m for the rights which is rare they paid anything. Ok Wookie reckons its a bit more than $1m and doesn't mention 10.

http://www.footyindustry.com/?page_id=597
 

The_Wookie

Queenslander
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Posts
31,936
Likes
29,262
Location
Adelaide
AFL Club
Carlton
Thread starter Moderator #73
You talking about 1987 VFL coverage? Broadcom paid higher TV rights fees than 7 offered and paid the previous years. Broadcom on sold them to 10 and to ABC who paid $1m for the rights which is rare they paid anything. Ok Wookie reckons its a bit more than $1m and doesn't mention 10.

http://www.footyindustry.com/?page_id=597
Oakley says in the The Phoenix Rises that Nine and Ten both stayed out of the bidding. In addition -

In the first season—the year of national expansion, 1987—Broadcom would provide $3.5m plus an upfront payment of $1.3m, for a total of
$5m compared to Channel Seven’s $3.4m (before their withdrawal to $3m). There would be even more upside for us if rights monies took off later in the contract period.
It was also my view, and subsequently that of the commission, that Broadcom’s offer—although the final amount the League would receive was not guaranteed—was better than the $21 million put on the table by Sportsplay over three years. We felt there were too many “what-ifs” in Sportsplay’s potential to deal with the networks, something we knew was never going to be easy.
Seven ended up doing a deal for 1.4m that was for Victorian rights only - a deal which ended when Fairfax took over Seven and bailed on its rights.

In the end the rights for 1987 went to the ABC - Oakley makes no mention of Ten.

On 13 March, I announced that Seven had walked away from its VFL broadcast deal and that the official Victorian broadcaster of VFL football for 1987
would be the ABC. It was a one-year deal for just under $1.6 million.
 

____

Hodge 4, Voss 3, Buckley 0
Joined
Sep 1, 2009
Posts
7,004
Likes
8,081
Location
Somewhere south of Brisbane and north of Fitzroy
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Everton Broncos Bullets Bulls Roar
#74
ah yes true, chicken and egg..
maybe if they see writing on the wall so to speak they can offer up a few scenarios
current 18 team, 22 round + 9 game final series
current 18 team, 17 round + 9 game finals
current 18 team, 18 round (one return rival game) + 9 game finals
Expand by two teams (Tas and NT)
Have 21 rounds with two byes each (less overlapping games if there are two byes a season, which means more for TV rights)
Stick with the same finals system
Would be 190 home and away games instead of the current 198
 

madmug

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Mar 17, 2009
Posts
14,490
Likes
7,955
Location
Hobart
AFL Club
Collingwood
#75
Maybe the league needs to look at trying to reduce the seemingly endless procession of dour ugly defensive games we're seeing.

Rules to protect the players are vital, but so too are rules to promote the best aspects of the skilled game.

Its getting so close to the boring defensive style of Soccer & thugby loig that some AFL games become almost indistinguishable from that lot.

Surely a return to the more free running, jumping, scoring games of auld would excite the TV viewership & thus the AFL bottom line.?

NOTE, Everything was better back then. ;)
 
Top Bottom