The premiership hangover - real or myth?

[BigVic]

Of all the premiers this century only Brisbane 2001-03, Hawthorn 2013-15 and Richmond 2019-20 won consecutive flags.

Melbourne last season went out in straight sets after winning the flag the previous year.

Is a premiership hangover real?

 

[Blue1980]

What constitutes a flag hangover? Melbourne last year doesn’t count as one for me, still finished top 4 normal season just ran out of gas as season went on.

Cats older and copped a few more injuries this yeah, always a chance this could happen, could of potentially happened last year if a similar set of circumstances happened.

 

[Freomaniac]

Both Actually....

Crows 2017 grand final side stood out for me. Made the grand final with 15 wins and 1 draw from 22 regular season games.

Crows declined to a degree. 12 wins and 10 losses with 3 other sides that finished 9th to 12th

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

I think Geelong were too old and basked in their premiership too much.
You don't often see a premiership team go than badly the next year.

 

[Purple Suit]

I think Geelong were too old and basked in their premiership too much.
You don't often see a premiership team go than badly the next year.

We’ve never seen a premiership team be that old and slow before. The stars aligned last year.

 

[Liam Boy]

Weird framing. It's not real or a myth, it's... something that can sometimes happen. Not 100% of the time or 0% of the time.

 

[Osho]

I reckon the line should drawn at making finals or not the next year. It's a natural measurable marker.

You may want to wrangle if the champs scrape into 8 the next year, but really, making finals is the minimum.

Though looking at Hawks GFs, 7 in a row, 83 - 89. How good is that? Makes reaching finals 10 years in row or whatever seem a bit underwhelming, but that Hawthorn era was near aboration. Pies made 13 GFs in 20 years back when Britain ruled the waves.

Those outliers apart, making finals is the measure of avoiding the hangover moniker.

 

[CrowToon]

Absolute myth. If they make the finals the following year it doesn't support the idea. They don't have to win it, it's an 18 team competition - back to backs SHOULD be rare. With 'equalising' measures such as draft orders and salary caps teams should rise and fall each year. It's rare to see a GF winner miss it all the following year, better to assess the actual reasons for it in isolation rather than to jump at such an intangible.

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

Of all the premiers this century only Brisbane 2001-03, Hawthorn 2013-15 and Richmond 2019-20 won consecutive flags.

And none of those sides have won a premiership since... alcohol poisoning?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

There's a couple of points on this one from my observations as a Geelong supporter.

I'd argue that the frustration this year that a few players have been resting on their laurels from last year a little bit is exactly what set up the absolute massacre in the GF last year. A lot of players understood that 2022 was quite possibly going to be their last chance and so once the margin got out to 4-5 goals, there was just no way known that they were going to take the foot off the pedal; they were going to play as though it could be the last game of their careers.

One of the craziest stats that I've heard this season and one that gives me a bit of hope that 2023 could potentially be a blip is that (at least heading into last week) the team who'd been leading in the most games this season heading into quarter time was none other than Geelong. I don't want to be the coulda, woulda, shoulda, guy: we're where we ought to be given our performances this year. But that stat (and our percentage supports this) reflects that we were in winning/winnable positions in the majority of our losses. I'd bet that in all but 2-3 of our losses (if that), we were either in the lead in the second half, or ultimately lost by under 15 points.

It's fair enough to call Geelong's season a hangover: there's really no excuse for starting 0-3 and I always thought that anything worse than a semi final appearance would be a pretty feeble defence of our crown. But I don't sense it's a big issue across the league in recent history. Sure there's been a few examples, but I would have thought the reigning premier tends to back up by getting to the second or third week of finals, at least.

 

[JackFlash]

Geelong might've had a hangover, but some players aged another year and some of the fire in the belly that was there in 2022 left them? Whatever it was they dropped off dramatically as they didn't look prepared for the season from the beginning. They recruited well, but their top 10 pick played only 1 game before injury ended his season and the team had a horror run of injuries to their prime movers all year. They did the right thing putting crucial players in for surgeries and i expect those carrying niggles will have them attended to in the next fortnight, That should give them all 2 months off before getting back to and ready for a super pre season. Some of the newbies did well against the Dogs who were desperate for a win, my view is at least i don't follow Essendon who finished the season as the worst team in the competition despite their ladder position, behind West Coast and North who gave it a crack until the very end. Geelong showed some good signs in the final game and will now get another top 10 pick (7 or 8). If they can score another top midfielder from somewhere they might yet make a comeback?

 

[HairyO]

Cats 2023 is much like Hawks 2009.

Key retirements and so many injuries. Struggled with ups and downs all year and fell short of finals by a game or 2.

 

[Roobs321]

Don't feel the thread is warranted concerning the last few Premiers. Tigers three-peated and should be excused, Demons & Eagles put themselves in a reasonable position and were arguable flag faves at times in the subsequent two seasons, Cats were defying 'too old' and might've finally capitulated to it (touch wood). Some seasons you just aren't as lucky at critical points of the season or aren't in form/healthy at the right time. Don't appear to have any more of a hangover than the grand final bridesmaids do. I think the Lions, Port, Pies and Swans would all love to have a premiership hangover given how often they've been in the mix in the past decade and come up short.

 

[Xtreme]

It's very real

With the list Geelong have and the current state of the competition, they should have romped in back to back flags. But they failed to do so.

 

[rapidfire7]

It's very real

With the list Geelong have and the current state of the competition, they should have romped in back to back flags. But they failed to do so.

I think you have severely overrated us

 

[Xtreme]

I think you have severely overrated us

Losing Selwood was like losing your entire best 22 each week. Harsh but kinda true considering the leadership AND how he lifted the team every week.

 

[dumb]

if you consider geelong as an old team, do you call it a hangover or is it just a natural decline you might expect with the age of their champions? even then, you can still do both. from what some of the players said, they went pretty hard.

it comes down to incentive really. you don't see tennis players have grand slam hangovers because their earnings are directly related to their performance. if a footy team fades they still get a paycheck so long as their individual form is ok.

 

[The 747]

Losing Selwood was like losing your entire best 22 each week. Harsh but kinda true considering the leadership AND how he lifted the team every week.

Yeah the loss of that sheer will to win is underrated.

 

[Osho]

if you consider geelong as an old team, do you call it a hangover or is it just a natural decline you might expect with the age of their champions? even then, you can still do both. from what some of the players said, they went pretty hard.

it comes down to incentive really. you don't see tennis players have grand slam hangovers because their earnings are directly related to their performance. if a footy team fades they still get a paycheck so long as their individual form is ok.

Hangovers deepen and lengthen with age.

In fact I don't recall having a hangover at all until I was 14.

 

[dumb]

Hangovers deepen and lengthen with age.

In fact I don't recall having a hangover at all until I was 14.

i've never had a premiership hangover despite the amazing amounts i've sunk on occasion. i've thrown up the previous nights kebab, but it wasn't a hangover.

 

[PhatBoy]

if you consider geelong as an old team, do you call it a hangover or is it just a natural decline you might expect with the age of their champions? even then, you can still do both. from what some of the players said, they went pretty hard.

it comes down to incentive really. you don't see tennis players have grand slam hangovers because their earnings are directly related to their performance. if a footy team fades they still get a paycheck so long as their individual form is ok.

I think there are some elements of hangover that I maybe didn’t see early on but were only evidenced later:
Parfitt last night played like his life depended on it. I think he may have taken the foot off the gas at the start of the year.
Atkins was sensational last year and for the second half of this year but his first 8-10 games this season I don’t think carried the same attack and hunger that made him so good in the premiership run.
I believe that was representative of a few players who probably got a bit of a shock last year by being part of a flag that we weren’t expected to win, and got comfortable.

 

[PCORF]

Premiership side = next year (AFL Era)

1990 = 1991 missed finals
1991 = 1992 EF loss
1992 = 1993 semi loss
1993 = 1994 missed finals
1994 = 1995 semi loss
1995 = 1996 semi loss
1996 = 1997 prelim loss
1997 = 1998 repeated
1998 = 1999 missed finals
1999 = 2000 prelim loss
2000 = 2001 GF loss
2001 = 2002 repeated
2002 = 2003 repeated
2003 = 2004 GF loss
2004 = 2005 semi loss
2005 = 2006 GF loss
2006 = 2007 GF loss
2007 = 2008 GF loss
2008 = 2009 missed finals
2009 = 2010 prelim loss
2010 = 2011 GF loss
2011 = 2012 EF loss
2012 = 2013 prelim loss
2013 = 2014 repeated
2014 = 2015 repeated
2015 = 2016 semi loss
2016 = 2017 missed finals
2017 = 2018 prelim loss
2018 = 2019 prelim loss
2019 = 2020 repeated
2020 = 2021 missed finals
2021 = 2022 semi loss
2022 = 2023 missed finals

15 of the current 18 teams have won the flag during the AFL era (the majority have also had a losing GF too) and all apart from Gold Coast have played in at least 1 Grand Final. (Fremantle, St Kilda, GWS played in losses). Former clubs Fitzroy and the Brisbane Bears did not play in a GF during the AFL era.

6 teams have missed the finals the year after winning the premiership, the majority just missing the finals but Adelaide in 1999 finished 4th last.

The hangover is a myth, anything can happen in a season.

 

[Outtatym]

I don't look at Geelong as being a hangover - they squeezed one last drop out of an ageing list while they could

 

[Borussia Teeth]

Maybe it’s all just one big amazing coincidence…

 

[Deadpool]

Depends on the age of the list. Older lists are always going to struggle to back up after the celebrations and shorter preseason. The othet thing is culture. I recall Chris Lewis admitting that the Eagles took the foot off badly in 1993 as they were practically still celebrating their flag the next year (mid week drinking etc.) So I would suggest that both older and younger lists are the ones more likely to struggle; teams in the middle of their window more likely to back it up.