Hot Topic The Rebuild, est. 2023 and/or 2025

[fairbump_playon]

What if I told you that as a result of our poor strength and conditioning team, it now seems our spuds have somehow degenerated into deb potato.

S&C has been renamed Mashing & Disintegrating

 

[Yoda_]

That's why I said 3x100 game players is a low bar

every premiership team since 2000 has nailed one draft with 3 x 150 game player.

Even more interesting, most of these flags are close to the 8 year mark. The one positive outlier this century is the baby Hawks whom dominated the 2004 draft (Roughead, Franklin, Lewis) and won the flag in 2008.


The negative outlier from any team since 2000 whom has had 3 x 150 AFL players from one draft are, Kangaroos 2016 AFL draft. Simpkin, Larkey, Zuurhaar and the 2006 Saints whom drafted Armitage, Clinton Jones (149 games so take it out if you want) and Jaryn Geary.

The two teams who are entering the hitting zone upon this research. The 2019 Dockers are entering the hitting zone. Serong, Young and possibly Michael Frederick (97 games and counting) could be the next trio. The 2019 Gold Coast draft is entering that hitting zone as well. Rowell, Andersen, Flanders (83 games) Jy Farrar (35 games), Conor Budarick (48 games) or Malcom Rosas (48 games) could be that third player.

I didn't bother writing down any teams with draft hands from 2020 onwards as most games is 99 but Sydney leading that draft anyways (Gulden, Campbell, McDonald)

 

[Zach Package]

Careful, 2015 has Parish and Redman and AMT and 2016 has McGrath, Ridley and Draper.

 

[Yoda_]

Careful, 2015 has Parish and Redman and AMT and 2016 has McGrath, Ridley and Draper.

we dont have a single draft this century with 3 x 150 game players

 

[Lore]

every premiership team since 2000 has nailed one draft with 3 x 150 game player.

Even more interesting, most of these flags are close to the 8 year mark. The one positive outlier this century is the baby Hawks whom dominated the 2004 draft (Roughead, Franklin, Lewis) and won the flag in 2008.

I think 8 years holds pretty true.

The 2004 draft gave you the core of the threepeat accident of history team of 2013-2015. They participated in the 2008 flag tilt, but they didn’t win the 2008 flag under the leadership and mental fortitude of a bunch of 22 year olds. They aren’t that without Hodge and Mitchell’s generation to lead them.


2008 flag was won off the back of core players drafted in 2000 and particularly 2001:



P.S. Look at all those priority picks

 

[Yoda_]

I think 8 years holds pretty true.

Is this what Brad meant with his throwaway 8 year line?

The 2004 draft gave you the core of the threepeat accident of history team of 2013-2015. They participated in the 2008 flag tilt, but they didn’t win the 2008 flag under the leadership and mental fortitude of a bunch of 22 year olds. They aren’t that without Hodge and Mitchell’s generation to lead them.

It was pretty common that the '08 Hawks were ahead of schedule. Makes me think that 04 cohort was the special group but correct in saying they were nothing without the 01 guys

 

[Lore]

The negative outlier from any team since 2000 whom has had 3 x 150 AFL players from one draft are, Kangaroos 2016 AFL draft. Simpkin, Larkey, Zuurhaar

That draft should be hitting their straps last year, but you need 22 players, not three, so I think there’s a secondary variable in terms of neighbouring drafts producing reliable role players particularly in key positions who aren’t too injury prone.

That cohort might be good mentors for the Roos 2020 draft class though. Watch out for them in 2026-2028.

and the 2006 Saints whom drafted Armitage, Clinton Jones (149 games so take it out if you want) and Jaryn Geary.

The thing with Jones is he was a mature age recruit, so he probably should be counted as 2002 for the purposes of your project (the year he was 18). 8 years after 2006 he was past his prime and retired. He did play in their 2009-2010 grand final appearances alongside the saints 2001-2002 drafts in their peak though.

That probably also gives you an avenue for thinking about trade targets and the value of 26 year old free agents too.

 

[Lore]

Is this what Brad meant with his throwaway 8 year line?

What he actually said and how it is commonly interpreted are different things yeah

It was pretty common that the '08 Hawks were ahead of schedule. Makes me think that 04 cohort was the special group but correct in saying they were nothing without the 01 guys

You mean the same media circus that can’t get anything right except by accident?

 

[Yoda_]

What he actually said and how it is commonly interpreted are different things yeah


You mean the same media circus that can’t get anything right except by accident?

back then it was more accurate

 

[Lore]

back then it was more accurate

Not really, just harder to fact check.

This page is weirdly laid out but it puts all Hawthorne players in rows based on the year they turned 18 and then the columns seem to represent whether they joined the club in the first, second, third etc year of their careers.

https://119.42.53.217/clubs/hawthorn/list-build

So when you look at 2000 for example, you have Burgoyne listed several columns to the left because he didn’t join them until 2010, and Brent Guerra is there too, who was a bit of a journey man who was delisted and went on to become a staple at hawthorn after 2006. You also have Mitchell listed in the second column of 2000 because even though he was drafted in 2001, he was eligible in 2000.

Makes it easier to read the overall list build.

So then we go to the Essendon version of that page:

https://119.42.53.217/clubs/essendon/list-build

 

[Old Campaigner]

So what you’re saying is to win a flag you have to draft a bunch of good players? Hopefully Rosa reads this, that could be helpful for him to know

 

[Lore]

 

[Lore]

So what you’re saying is to win a flag you have to draft a bunch of good players? Hopefully Rosa reads this, that could be helpful for him to know

In the same year, usually with priority picks or father sons to get the shit together. and then wait until 8 years later

 

[Yoda_]

In the same year, usually with priority picks or father sons to get the shit together. and then wait until 8 years later

weirdly its about 50% of the time those three 150 gamers are a father/son, seems just that Hawks 04 draft was a priority pick (Roughead + Franklin) unless ive missed some end of first compensations

 

[Yoda_]

So what you’re saying is to win a flag you have to draft a bunch of good players? Hopefully Rosa reads this, that could be helpful for him to know

draft? sure. Develop into proper AFL players is the next step we struggle with

 

[Lore]

weirdly its about 50% of the time those three 150 gamers are a father/son, seems just that Hawks 04 draft was a priority pick (Roughead + Franklin) unless ive missed some end of first compensations

Hodge was a PP too in 2001. Without them your magical 3x150 doesn’t work… it’s be 2x150 and some spud with pick 50

 

[Yoda_]

Hodge was a PP too in 2001. Without them your magical 3x150 doesn’t work… it’s be 2x150 and some spud with pick 50s

Ive completely missed writing that draft in, apologies was on my list

 

[Old Campaigner]

Don’t be sorry, be better

 

[King Patty]

I didn't bother writing down any teams with draft hands from 2020 onwards as most games is 99 but Sydney leading that draft anyways (Gulden, Campbell, McDonald)

sad in 2020, Swans had better % than us, and hit draft ahead of us, and ended up with 3 better players than us (2 from academy), with only 1 draft pick ahead of us pre draft, but 2 selections at the draft (we had 3 first rounds). We did beat swans by 6 points that year. But look at our % and we really were a bit of a outlier and should have finished closer to 3rd last, with meaningless wins




Crazy Adelaide and North change in fortunes as well since then.

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

Would give 2 firsts but not 3 tbh. If we had to haggle I'd go 2 firsts and a 2nd at very most and that's pushing it.

Anything more than that no thanks. 3 firsts is club breaking if it goes wrong.

Absolutely. The talk is of him possibly going to Hawks or Cats. Neither of them have draft capital remotely close to our 2 firsts-their future 1st are highly likely mid teen picks even before any downgrades from F/S and Academy.
So if we did offer our 2 first rounders, why would West Coast knock that back , and then risk either swallowing an inferior trade this year or holding Reid to his contract and ending in an even worse bargaining position at end of next season.
And if it comes down to money, surely we would have more salary cap scope than other suitors to meet his manager's terms.
If we don't get him it could only be because we don't offer 2 firsts, or we do and he says "Yeah, nah" to coming to our club. Either way, 2 firsts is the absolute most we should consider offering.

 

[Yoda_]

Don’t be sorry, be better

settle down, we've all made mistakes

 

[windyhill]

EFC request “ please, no more Thursday fixtures”
AFL community “ get these campaigners off Thursdays”

 

[faible]

EFC request “ please, no more Thursday fixtures”
AFL community “ get these campaigners off Thursdays”

AFL: More Thursdays you say?

 

[Call Me Cake]

‘Really nervous’: Fears of Dons trade raid; ‘wildcard’ emerges in epic finals statements — AFL Talking Points

‘Really nervous’: Fears of Dons trade raid; ‘wildcard’ emerges in epic flag shake-up — Talking Pts

www.foxsports.com.au

From the same guy who brought you gems like...

 

[faible]

‘Really nervous’: Fears of Dons trade raid; ‘wildcard’ emerges in epic finals statements — AFL Talking Points

‘Really nervous’: Fears of Dons trade raid; ‘wildcard’ emerges in epic flag shake-up — Talking Pts

www.foxsports.com.au

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Oh no they might try to trade for Langford, Ridley or Draper....