Hot Topic The Rebuild, est. 2023 and/or 2025

[Old Campaigner]

Very insightful post.
This is a concise summation of where we are at.
We cannot afford to get this draft wrong.
We cannot overlook a Bailey humphries.
We are in the somewhat fortunate position of having to unload a lot of players and we are not a destination club.
If we lose Draper and get pick 6 we would take that as a break even in this draft as we would get pick 11 after bids possibly.
Please draft fast, endurance athletes.
Please draft competitors and please we are due some luck.

The last couple of drafts have given me some confidence the club knows what it needs

 

[jmoo wan]

we were pretty successful around the turn of the century - 99, 20, 21, i reckon we should find some of the essendon people from that era and bring them in - they know what success is like

 

[bombadeer]

Is Rosa a gun list manager? He's going to have to be to drag us out of the mire.

He's found some great young players in the last couple of drafts.

He's also made some really questionable re-signings on fringe / injured players.

They are not fatal mistakes, but they are mistakes, so... jury is out. These guys do not operate in a vacuum either, so there is some group think that lacks a bit on the cold calculating front.

 

[Call Me Cake]

the only way we do maybe win a final in 2027

I'm expecting making the finals in 2027 but whether we win one by then is up for debate, have a feeling that a finals win may not come until 2028 off the back of a top 5 finish.

Well in reality it does not matter if the build started in 2020 or 2022 or 2023. The fact is there is plenty of heavy lifting needing to be done

That's discounting the work that's been done up until now and onloading much of it's viability onto the next 2 years which is incorrect. The amount of work that's been done since 2023 on and off the field will have just as much of an influence on what culminates in 2-3 years time as the next 2 years will.

From overturning the administration of the club, to laying down an era of actual stability, to lessening the frequency of blow-outs, to prioritizing the draft hand at all costs even when recruiting, to slowly overturning the list of the past-due older players we would've usually kept - and as a result becoming one of the least experienced sides at selection (before the injuries) - they are all signs of the first genuine 5 year rebuild that this club has ever seen in the modern era.

 

[Lore]

I'm expecting making the finals in 2027 however I have feeling that it may not come until 2028 which is when I'm expecting a position in the top 5.



It does matter because facts always matter, however it also matters because that approach is discounting the work that's been done up until now and onloading much of it's viability onto the next 2 years which is incorrect.

The amount of work that's been done since 2023 on and off the field will have just as much of an influence on what culminates in 2-3 years time as the next 2 years will.

From overturning the administration of the club, to laying down an era of actual stability, to lessening the frequency of blow-outs, to prioritizing the draft hand at all costs even when filling holes at the recruitment table, to slowly overturning the list of the past-due older players we'd have usually kept and as a result becoming one of the least experienced sides at selection (before the injuries), all of these are signs of the first genuine 5 year rebuild that this club has ever seen in the modern era.

All of those things are important because they’ve hamstrung all attempts at course correction in the past.

…but when we talk about rebuilding it’s usually specifically about the playing list

 

[Call Me Cake]

All of those things are important because they’ve hamstrung all attempts at course correction in the past.

…but when we talk about rebuilding it’s usually specifically about the playing list

I agree however you can't go through a rebuild without simultaneously laying down the ground work to do it right. This is synonymous with all clubs that do it properly. You also can't overturn 20+ players at once, those actions take time and are a transitionary thing that happens over multiple seasons due to pre-existing contracts and doing it in a way that's respectful.

What sets it apart though is the type of players that are being overturned, are you holding firm on offers and not afraid to let them go if they don't buckle, not holding onto experience that doesn't adhere to an outlined age demographic plan for the list (as revealed by Vozzo) and not bringing in players that do not fit that age bracket at the cost of the draft just for a sugar hit (as we would've in the past).

Off field and on field actions all culminate in how your build starts and how it pans out and we've had to go about it coming out of one of the most unstable environments any club could be in. This is the first time at the club that I've ever seen the right conditions set for an ongoing build and the first time I've seen it done in a proper transitionary stage.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Is Rosa a gun list manager? He's going to have to be to drag us out of the mire.

He's found some great young players in the last couple of drafts.

He's also made some really questionable re-signings on fringe / injured players.

They are not fatal mistakes, but they are mistakes, so... jury is out. These guys do not operate in a vacuum either, so there is some group think that lacks a bit on the cold calculating front.

Were they mistakes or just the least shitty option available? Jones vs some dud at pick 80 etc?

 

[justlookingaround]

I'm expecting making the finals in 2027 however I have feeling that it may not come until 2028 which is when I'm expecting a position in the top 5.

I’m more feeling 2030 tbh, that is if the rebuild actually goes well

 

[Nifft]

Essendon fielded 15 debutants, how many will still be around in 18-24 months?

Isaac Kako - yes
Tom Edwards - No
Saad El~Hawli - No
Archer Day~Wicks - ??
Lewis Hayes - Yes
Angus Clarke - Yes
Zak Johnson - Yes
Luamon Lual - No
Lacki Blackiston - No
Archer May - ??
Vigo Visentini - Yes
Oskar Smartt - No
Liam McMahon - No
Jayden Nguyễn - Yes

A 40% hit rate, is this enough to get us off the canvas?

This is an unusual year though. Without so many injuries a lot of these guys wouldn't have got a game yet, and some wouldn't have been drafted at all. How many would we have selected in the MSD if we didn't have all those injuries?

 

[84859300]

we were pretty successful around the turn of the century - 99, 20, 21, i reckon we should find some of the essendon people from that era and bring them in - they know what success is like

I agree with this, but it was also the time we had and managed our own reserves and under 19's.

If you look to the 3-5 years up to the 1999 season, you will see how many of our junior players had featured together for development, game plan and execution.

When we merged with Bendigo, there was no real need to keep development staff onboard - where I feel this was where we started dropping off; relying on past results and just expecting they would continue to come. Very short sighted at the time and we're still paying for it 25 years later.

 

[Foxx]

I fear we've left too much too late in these 2 drafts before Tassie compromise the following few, due to previous picks not working out to this point.
We really need Cox, Reid, Perkins, Tsatas, Hobbs etc to make it.

If they don't, it's means we effectively have to find 6-8 good young players over the next 2 years, or rely on plucking a handful during the Tassie coverage.

 

[katana]

tassie aint gunna happen so i wouldn't worry.

 

[mike14]

I agree with this, but it was also the time we had and managed our own reserves and under 19's.

If you look to the 3-5 years up to the 1999 season, you will see how many of our junior players had featured together for development, game plan and execution.

When we merged with Bendigo, there was no real need to keep development staff onboard - where I feel this was where we started dropping off; relying on past results and just expecting they would continue to come. Very short sighted at the time and we're still paying for it 25 years later.

100%. I'd imagine a fair bit of our 2000 side played in at least 1 of the 3 Reserve GFs we made between 96 and 99.
The development pathway is a bit different now, but having a strong, structured feeder team is still vitally important

 

[Vindicater]

100%. I'd imagine a fair bit of our 2000 side played in at least 1 of the 3 Reserve GFs we made between 96 and 99.
The development pathway is a bit different now, but having a strong, structured feeder team is still vitally important

One of the reasons why Hawthorn keep bouncing right back up again.

 

[Corleone]

The recent drafting history has me feeling very optimistic about the clubs future (for the first time in a long time)

2023 - Caddy (Now 20), Lual (20) and Roberts (19)
Rookie - Visentini (19)

2024 - Kako (19), Gerreyn, Clarke (19), Unwin (18), Johnson (18)
MSD - El-Hawli (24)
Rookie - Day-Wicks (19)

2025 -
Cat B Rookie - Nguyen (19)
MSD - May (21), Blakiston (26), Smartt (19), McMahon (23)

I would gladly argue the point that the above bolded players are all in our Best 23 come round 1 next year (or at least should be making the selectors think long and hard)

Hopefully we can add at least four more very talented youngsters to this group through the drafts this year that can come in and play regular football in 2026.

If we can get to the end of next year with another four names being added to the above, that gives us twelve kids under the age of 22 meshing together. Add a Hayes (20) and hopefully one of either Hobbs (21) or Tsatas (20) comes along or breaks out and we've suddenly got a very handy core of young talent.

 

[Old Campaigner]

One advantage of the club realising we’re utterly shite is they might be investing a bit more in scouting and talent identification compared to when the hierarchy assumed it was all the coaches fault

 

[Lore]

One advantage of the club realising we’re utterly shite is they might be investing a bit more in scouting and talent identification compared to when the hierarchy assumed it was all the coaches fault

Changing the priorities from esports to football is a good start

 

[jdstorm]

Essendon fielded 15 debutants, how many will still be around in 18-24 months?

Isaac Kako - yes
Tom Edwards - No
Saad El~Hawli - No
Archer Day~Wicks - ??
Lewis Hayes - Yes
Angus Clarke - Yes
Zak Johnson - Yes
Luamon Lual - No
Lacki Blackiston - No
Archer May - ??
Vigo Visentini - Yes
Oskar Smartt - No
Liam McMahon - No
Jayden Nguyễn - Yes

A 40% hit rate, is this enough to get us off the canvas?

As afl players or on the list in general?

If we’re talking VFl standard or better I’d say Smart is the only player on that list who shouldn’t make it 2 seasons

Need to clear off the low effort “name” players vs the high effort kids who need skill development

 

[Yoda_]

As afl players or on the list in general?

If we’re talking VFl standard or better I’d say Smart is the only player on that list who shouldn’t make it 2 seasons

Need to clear off the low effort “name” players vs the high effort kids who need skill development

long term players who will be pushing us to be better in 18-24 months

 

[Squeaky]

One of the reasons why Hawthorn keep bouncing right back up again.

And why Geelong never go down

 

[Vindicater]

To be fair our VFL team would have actually been okay this year if the AFL team had not been decimated.

 

[calyam]

Realistically we might be three years away from being three years away. Anyone over 25 is highly unlikely to around for our next finals win.

Hopefully our injury plagued season can fast track the development of a few guys.

But we feel like a mile off genuine contention in a league where a team as talent as the Dogs can't make the right.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I’d conservatively estimate it to be about 8 years from when the Scott-Vozzo-Rosa triumvirate formed as in my mind that’s when the club finally saw itself for what it is and set about doing something about it.

 

[jctrout]

Essendon fielded 15 debutants, how many will still be around in 18-24 months?

Isaac Kako - yes
Tom Edwards - No
Saad El~Hawli - No
Archer Day~Wicks - ??
Lewis Hayes - Yes
Angus Clarke - Yes
Zak Johnson - Yes
Luamon Lual - No
Lacki Blackiston - No
Archer May - ??
Vigo Visentini - Yes
Oskar Smartt - No
Liam McMahon - No
Jayden Nguyễn - Yes

A 40% hit rate, is this enough to get us off the canvas?

personally I see Gerreyn going past May for F1, but will depend on him doing everything he can to get fitter and quicker. He's my Chooker in 3 years. Onion will come good , just needs time to grow into the game. agree with every Yes / No otherwise!

 

[Yoda_]

I’d conservatively estimate it to be about 8 years from when the Scott-Vozzo-Rosa triumvirate formed as in my mind that’s when the club finally saw itself for what it is and set about doing something about it.

I put up facts that back this up but a lot of premiership and grand final sides have 3x150 game players from the same draft in a team that plays off about 8 years after being drafted.

Fremantle 2019 had Serong, Brayshaw and Fredrick on track to do it in 2027. They’re hitting the timeline perfectly

The whole 8 year thing makes much more sense now