Opinion The Rebuild Thread

[rp84]

And two rules for drafting:

1.no more ****ing introverts.
2. No more ****ing flankers or small defenders.

 

[Dramoth]

And two rules for drafting:

1.no more ******* introverts.
2. No more ******* flankers or small defenders.

I dont mind introverts... so long as they can play football very well.

We have enough small defenders atm... I want those small defenders and flankers that we have to start playing through the middle... something that we havent had the last lot doing...

 

[Sublime]

There is some madness going on...

Build the club around Kreuzer? The poor lad has barely played a game in two years and looks unlikely to ever be a long term decent player. He has only ever dominated several games, looked extremely positive until the knee and now is absolutely at the cross roads. He looks slow, has lost athleticism and is undersized at his main position.

Someone saying that casboult is in our spine of the future?! How the mighty have fallen. He can catch it like noone else, is improving
Each season but will lklikely never be a top 10 or even top 20 forward.

We need to get serious about where we are headed and that means taking the navy blue glasses off. We criminally overrated our list. This had lead to our current position. Time to get some better talent and list developers involved with the club.

I'm guilty of it too. I always raved about warnock. How wrong I was. Probably isnt in the top 20 of afl rucks. Move on asap.

While i do share your doubts over Kruz longevity, i think his overall athleticism at the ruck position is still really good. Gets down around his ankles well still. From what i've heard, his hip is still a pretty big issue for him and is probably the most likely thing to stop him playing past 30. He will no doubt require management from here on in, but his size for a ruck is just fine. 200cm isn't small for a ruck considering dominant ruckman like Minson & Mumford are both under 200cm.

 

[Dramoth]

There is some madness going on...

Build the club around Kreuzer? The poor lad has barely played a game in two years and looks unlikely to ever be a long term decent player. He has only ever dominated several games, looked extremely positive until the knee and now is absolutely at the cross roads. He looks slow, has lost athleticism and is undersized at his main position.

Someone saying that casboult is in our spine of the future?! How the mighty have fallen. He can catch it like noone else, is improving
Each season but will lklikely never be a top 10 or even top 20 forward.

We need to get serious about where we are headed and that means taking the navy blue glasses off. We criminally overrated our list. This had lead to our current position. Time to get some better talent and list developers involved with the club.

I'm guilty of it too. I always raved about warnock. How wrong I was. Probably isnt in the top 20 of afl rucks. Move on asap.

Would you put Earl Spalding as a top 10 or top 20 forward when he was playing?

The thing is that we have mismanaged Humphrey ever since he came back from his knee injury. He should have spent the rest of 2011 playing in the Bullants. But no... we rushed him back into the seniors and in 2012, he spent most of the year having fluid buildup drained from his keep.

And now he has this foot injury that could spell the end of his career. But, if we can get him over that, let him recover at a slower pace for this year and then give him a full unrestricted pre-season, then he should get back to full flight next year.

And then we build the club around him. Make him a franchise player for us...

 

[Old Dark Blues]

There is some madness going on...

Build the club around Kreuzer? The poor lad has barely played a game in two years and looks unlikely to ever be a long term decent player. He has only ever dominated several games, looked extremely positive until the knee and now is absolutely at the cross roads. He looks slow, has lost athleticism and is undersized at his main position.

Someone saying that casboult is in our spine of the future?! How the mighty have fallen. He can catch it like noone else, is improving
Each season but will lklikely never be a top 10 or even top 20 forward.

We need to get serious about where we are headed and that means taking the navy blue glasses off. We criminally overrated our list. This had lead to our current position. Time to get some better talent and list developers involved with the club.

I'm guilty of it too. I always raved about warnock. How wrong I was. Probably isnt in the top 20 of afl rucks. Move on asap.

We criminally overrated our list.

Or we are throwing the baby out with the bath water - which is also a crime.

We have not criminally overrated our list. Its actually a bloody good list, the players are not performing however and the game plan is partly the reason why.

We need a decent forward, and one more key backman and we are in a much better position. If krueze was fit and firing he would be amongst the best mobile ruckman in the AFL.

Admittedly he is not - which has exposed Warnocks deficiencies.

Admittedly Waite has gone AWOL as has Garlett which means Henderson has gone back and we are back to square one with Walker needing to go forward and reliance on Casboult.

Henderson back is good for the back, and Rowe is doing reasonably well - however when the opposition is firing in 80 shots to your 30 its no wonder the backs are going to get smashed.

Midfield is losing it because of the game plan. We spend half an hour taking it around the boundary line, allowing them time to man up (see Melbourne), then surprise surprise they rebound it straight down the guts and score a goal on us.

We need a better plan, and a forward, and some commitment.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Thing is with all the above, we wont get a good enough price for any of these blokes - and its not like they're doing anything at the moment to increase their value.

Sam Rowe plays a part at the moment, as does Ellard and Robinson. I'd love to upgrade them with better players, but for the draft picks we would get for them in any trade, that isnt going to happen. Casboult, Lucas, Watson, Bootsma, Bell, Cachia, McInnes have upside, I dont think we've seen the best of these blokes yet, particularly not with better support around them. Casboult would excell in a lead up forward role with a second key forward working in tandem with him. He's about the only bloke in our side I trust to take a contested grab. Lucas needs another year, its too early to write him off just yet, same with Watson.

OTOH we have seen the best of McLean, White, Waite and Garlett and none of them (aside from Garlett) holds any trade value. Waite is pretty much past it (sadly) and will almost certainly retire this year. White is useful to cover injuries, McLean has his limitiations (and uses).

Kreuzer is a keeper. We agree on Warnock being next to useless, but we have no other rucks going around at the moment. MK needs an injury free few years, and the role of number 1 ruck to show what he can do, and we'll be glad we kept him. He's a quality ruckman, and his work around the ground and at stoppages cant be underestimated. Sadly the bloke hasnt been able to run and has been cruelled with injuries.



Watch Docherty in the 2nds if you want to see pinpoint disposal. Elite.

Scotlands heir apparent.



I agree he needs to be across the HFF. Been saying that since day 1 and havent seen anything to change my opinion. The issue with 1AW is that he's 27 years old and by the time we are competing for a flag (at least 3 years) he is going to be 30+ and his main attributes (speed, leap and endurance) will be on the wane. He's never been big on contested footy, and I cant see him reinventing himself at a later point in his career. He's in his prime at the moment (when the rest of the side isnt), and (for mine) thats when you trade. We could easily get a top 20 pick for him, or use him in a trade (plus upgrade) for one of GWS/ GC's young guns (Patton?) in a similar trade to the Heath Shaw/ Taylor Adams exchange.



Agree 100%. Add to that the money we would save to poach some experienced FA or lure more GWS/ GC kids at the end of the 2015 season.

Losing Gibbs, trading Walker and retirements over the next two years of Waite, Judd, Scotland and probable Carrots means we will have a ton of spare cash floating around to nab 1 or 2 guns via FA and/or shake lose a kid from the expansion sides.

Remember - lets not think 1 year ahead. We need to be careful and plan this shit over the next two or three years. Its a constant process and we need to forecast appropriately. We certainly cant fix the list in one year.

Each year from now GWS and GCS have thier salary cap tightened and have to cut players from the list. Add to that their guns will start attracting serious offers from rival clubs and they are going to leak good players back home.

We need to get in on that shit, and have the money to burn to get them here.



We need MK. Rest him for the whole damn year. The risk/reward if he recovers is worth it. Trading him is too risky seeing as we traded Hammer last year.



Warnock wins hit outs. But (just like Sandi) this is easy to combat. You let him, and rove to HIS danger spots in the ruck contests. He also offers sweet FA around the ground. I've been disgusted to watch him stand there after hit outs like a statue waiting for the ball to come out to him.

You wouldnt see MK doing that.



Id rather go after one of their three Key forwards, with Patton being the most likely. They dont need three, he's come off serious knee injuries and looks an utter monster at 19. Not many 19 year old blokes can destroy experienced key backs like that bloke was. Considering the shit team (currently) he found himself playing in, I'd happily give GWS whatever they wanted for him (assuming he is medically good to go).

Agree with a lot of what you have to say.. Patton for me is still very gettable provided we are prepared to pay top dollar, talking 1mil a season over 6. I reckon he is worth it.

 

[thylacine60]

You wanna pay a 21 year old player with ACL history 1M a year?

 

[Old Dark Blues]

You wanna pay a 21 year old player with ACL history 1M a year?

What's worse the misdiagnosis or the "alternative" medicine cure?

 

[Magruder]

I'm sorry but this Patton thing is short-termism. We cannot allow ourselves to fixate on a single KP. Yes there will be opportunities to acquire some quality from GWS and GCS but I'd rather take an holistic futurecentric view of the list.

Who do we have who is AFL ready right now and will still be in 3 years? How many others do we have who are likley to have established themselves as AFL footballers in 3 years?

I think you need the combined number of these players to be at 30-35 as this allows you carry a couple of players at the twighlight of their careers and a couple who may have shown a bit but not enough to firmly sit in the second camp.

Once the list is reasonably balanced it allows for effective list management.
ie, lets say we think 1AW has four years left as a quality AFL footballer but we think they his physical attributes will start to tail off over that period. It means you draft a player to initially supplement his abilities in say 2 years and replace him fully in 3-4.

Evaluate the list continually with a view to what it will look like in 3 years as well as the present. Once the balance is right you can have waves of quality players coming through.

Yes it's the Geelong model and it requires you use the draft well and to effectively judge the performance arcs of your listed players. And yes some bad calls will be made.
(You can supplement it with judicious trading of the Everitt/Docherty type if the gift horses are there to reduce the impact).

It is to my mind the only way to consistently challenge.

 

[Quazza]

If we do rebuild, can we get different builders in than last time? The last mob did a pretty shoddy job, weak foundations.....

 

[LordLucifer]

Thing is with all the above, we wont get a good enough price for any of these blokes - and its not like they're doing anything at the moment to increase their value.

Sam Rowe plays a part at the moment, as does Ellard and Robinson. I'd love to upgrade them with better players, but for the draft picks we would get for them in any trade, that isnt going to happen. Casboult, Lucas, Watson, Bootsma, Bell, Cachia, McInnes have upside, I dont think we've seen the best of these blokes yet, particularly not with better support around them. Casboult would excell in a lead up forward role with a second key forward working in tandem with him. He's about the only bloke in our side I trust to take a contested grab. Lucas needs another year, its too early to write him off just yet, same with Watson.

OTOH we have seen the best of McLean, White, Waite and Garlett and none of them (aside from Garlett) holds any trade value. Waite is pretty much past it (sadly) and will almost certainly retire this year. White is useful to cover injuries, McLean has his limitiations (and uses).

There is a lot more in your post which is good reading but I'll just address the key points to me.

You are right, we may not get the price we want and worse still, we may not get anything which is even more damning. If no other club would have them, then why should we ?? I think this goes to the heart of the problem, we have assembled to many players who are either spare parts or there purely for depth purposes. At another club (ie. one of the top 4) they would be a luxury that could work but we are not in that position.

There is another issue that you have highlighted (the underlined) and that is the old 'give them another year' theory. One of the main contributing factors to the standard of our list is that we keep players on our list way too long - end of story. Some of the players listed in the above paragraphs are in the same boat (eg. White, Ellard), are they going to improve so dramatically that they are going to be one of the first picked, I highly doubt it.

Hartlett & O'Keefe are two of the best examples I can think of, they were both there for what ... 6-years ?? And they never ever made it to the extent that Hartlett was genuinely gobsmacked when he got offered his last contract, he was totally convinced that he was going to be chopped (this comes from a very good source).

Overall, the list needs to be turned over systematically (10 last year, 10 this year and more than likely 10 the year after) whilst factoring in that there will be a number of retirements (Scotland, Judd, Waite, Carrazzo, Simpson etc).


We need to be a little more ruthless with the players, if they are not making acceptable progress, we have to cut our losses and move on. The playing list has a limited amounts of spots so there cannot be any more of this "sit back & watch" approach. Every year there are other young tyros who would bust their boiler to be given a shot at the big time, their attitude & enthusiasm surely would have a positive effect on the rest of the group.

 

[LordLucifer]

There is some madness going on...

Build the club around Kreuzer? The poor lad has barely played a game in two years and looks unlikely to ever be a long term decent player. He has only ever dominated several games, looked extremely positive until the knee and now is absolutely at the cross roads. He looks slow, has lost athleticism and is undersized at his main position.

Someone saying that casboult is in our spine of the future?! How the mighty have fallen. He can catch it like noone else, is improving
Each season but will lklikely never be a top 10 or even top 20 forward.

We need to get serious about where we are headed and that means taking the navy blue glasses off. We criminally overrated our list. This had lead to our current position. Time to get some better talent and list developers involved with the club.

I'm guilty of it too. I always raved about warnock. How wrong I was. Probably isnt in the top 20 of afl rucks. Move on asap.

Where is the standing ovation emoticon ??

You are as correct as anyone has ever been on a footy forum RP84, we certainly way over-rate our players to the extent that most people must be in shock that we don't win the premiership ever year. Blind loyalty is nice in theory but you have to be realistic after a while. Once a player pulls on a navy blue guernsey, they automatically become a Brownlow medallist and an All-Australian in the eyes of the Blues brethren.

Casboult is not the future, he is a huge galoot who can certainly clunk a mark but that's about where it stops, he cannot kick straight to save himself.

Kreuzer is a serious concern, everyone hopes he returns to his best but right now, that cannot be the aim, let's take the worst possible angle and work from there. If he comes back its a bonus.

Our fans have to realise that Free Agency isn't the panacea to our ills, in fact all it is doing is perpetuating the standard practices of the club from yesteryear, admittedly it worked but it was a different era and system back then.

We have go to stop looking for the quick-fix, the bandaid, the messiah. The AFL brought in the salary cap and draft purely to thwart us because we were to smart for their old system. The problem is, we haven't adapted to the new regime and refuse to do the hard yards needed to properly build and develop a list. The other clubs have adapted and worked it well, us on the other hand, pffft, we are Carlton, **** the rest !!

 

[LordLucifer]

You wanna pay a 21 year old player with ACL history 1M a year?

Again .... sheer madness !!

We are looking for the quick fix instead of doing some serious research & reviews on what we have now and what we need and how and when we get it. It's called "List Management" and for some reason, its either a swear word or taboo subject at Princes Park.

 

[Sublime]

Where is the standing ovation emoticon ??

 

[Azul]

There is another issue that you have highlighted (the underlined) and that is the old 'give them another year' theory. One of the main contributing factors to the standard of our list is that we keep players on our list way too long - end of story. Some of the players listed in the above paragraphs are in the same boat (eg. White, Ellard), are they going to improve so dramatically that they are going to be one of the first picked, I highly doubt it.

Ellard is leading our goalkicking at the moment. Perhaps that's indicative of us being 15th on points scored more than David's place in the squad. But certainly he deserves another year if he extrapolates that to 30 goals by the end of the season.

As for the other player you mention, White. We're currently 17th on points conceded. Our defence is something of a shambles, with White, Bootsma, McInness, Rowe and Watson all in their 3rd-5th seasons at the club. We'll only keep 2 or 3 of those 5, so various players will be given ample time to state a case throughout the year - hence Sam Rowe's selection each week.

 

[The Edukator]

I have to agree with pretty much everything the sheikh has said. rp84 too.

 

[LordLucifer]

Ellard is leading our goalkicking at the moment. Perhaps that's indicative of us being 15th on points scored more than David's place in the squad. But certainly he deserves another year if he extrapolates that to 30 goals by the end of the season.

As for the other player you mention, White. We're currently 17th on points conceded. Our defence is something of a shambles, with White, Bootsma, McInness, Rowe and Watson all in their 3rd-5th seasons at the club. We'll only keep 2 or 3 of those 5, so various players will be given ample time to state a case throughout the year - hence Sam Rowe's selection each week.

Sorry, I cannot agree with at all.

If he gets another season it should be purely because we weren't in a position to manage a replacement for him.

And yes, you look at those names as a defensive unit and the opposition forwards would be licking their chops in anticipation. In fact it may even struggle at VFL level !!

 

[LordLucifer]

Or we are throwing the baby out with the bath water - which is also a crime.

We have not criminally overrated our list. Its actually a bloody good list, the players are not performing however and the game plan is partly the reason why.

We need a decent forward, and one more key backman and we are in a much better position. If krueze was fit and firing he would be amongst the best mobile ruckman in the AFL.

Admittedly he is not - which has exposed Warnocks deficiencies.

Admittedly Waite has gone AWOL as has Garlett which means Henderson has gone back and we are back to square one with Walker needing to go forward and reliance on Casboult.

Henderson back is good for the back, and Rowe is doing reasonably well - however when the opposition is firing in 80 shots to your 30 its no wonder the backs are going to get smashed.

Midfield is losing it because of the game plan. We spend half an hour taking it around the boundary line, allowing them time to man up (see Melbourne), then surprise surprise they rebound it straight down the guts and score a goal on us.

We need a better plan, and a forward, and some commitment.

Sorry, cannot agree, the list is full of mid-sized HBF's with questionable disposal. If they all play to their absolute maximum 100% of the time then yes, they a reasonable team but this is not a common occurrence.

 

[Azul]

Sorry, I cannot agree with at all.

If he gets another season it should be purely because we weren't in a position to manage a replacement for him.

Let me get this straight, if Ellard kicks 30 goals for the season, you'd delist him?

Particularly after losing Eddie, with Garlett currently in purgatory and a host of rookie forward prospects yet to gain elevation. (Reynolds, Johnson, the Ciarans)

 

[SBYM]

If we do rebuild, can we get different builders in than last time? The last mob did a pretty shoddy job, weak foundations.....

The old rebuild of the rebuild gag.

It's a beauty.

 

[LordLucifer]

Let me get this straight, if Ellard kicks 30 goals for the season, you'd delist him?

Particularly after losing Eddie, with Garlett currently in purgatory and a host of rookie forward prospects yet to gain elevation. (Reynolds, Johnson, the Ciarans)

David Ellard has kicked 28 goals in his career, yes I'd trade or delist him. Whether it is this season or next is subject to what is coming back into the club at the time.

44 games in six years ??

 

[Magruder]

I like Davy Ellard a lot as he seems to play with intensity and guts. But he is not a long-term option.

The only reason he stays is because you prioritise de-listing others.

 

[Magruder]

Again .... sheer madness !!

We are looking for the quick fix instead of doing some serious research & reviews on what we have now and what we need and how and when we get it.

Agreed and it has to stop. We should always be looking at how the list will look in three years.

 

[Old Dark Blues]

Sorry, cannot agree, the list is full of mid-sized HBF's with questionable disposal. If they all play to their absolute maximum 100% of the time then yes, they a reasonable team but this is not a common occurrence.

Whatever.

You are exaggerating and grasping for extremes and creating false dichotomies. Irrational and poor form.

Our team is not "FULL" of mid-sized HBF's - ridiculous assessment. And not everyone has questionable disposal. You are simply writing off the entire team as mid sized HBF's because that suits your agenda, not because its true.

Further if they play to maximum 100% of the time then they are reasonable.... ? Actually they can beat anyone in the league if they did that - as evidenced by our near misses in Micks first year against the very best, only undone by 17 free kicks in a row.

If you have anything of rational, balanced and calm consideration then lets hear it. Extremist, alarmist, reactionary armies of straw men are exactly what we do not need.

 

[Sublime]

Whatever.

You are exaggerating and grasping for extremes and creating false dichotomies. Irrational and poor form.

Our team is not "FULL" of mid-sized HBF's - ridiculous assessment. And not everyone has questionable disposal. You are simply writing off the entire team as mid sized HBF's because that suits your agenda, not because its true.

Further if they play to maximum 100% of the time then they are reasonable.... ? Actually they can beat anyone in the league if they did that - as evidenced by our near misses in Micks first year against the very best, only undone by 17 free kicks in a row.

If you have anything of rational, balanced and calm consideration then lets hear it. Extremist, alarmist, reactionary armies of straw men are exactly what we do not need.

Liked for use of the word dichotomies.