Analysis The Rebuilds Of Hawthorn and Geelong and their Future Prospects

[The 747]

From a neutral who supports neither team I think the above is pretty accurate. Is Geelong rebuilding - well not really but put that aside, look at both clubs short to mid term prospects.
Think nearly all neutrals would have their hard earn't on Geelong placing higher on the ladder than the Hawks for the next couple of seasons. 2024 on-wards however , I suspect my $ would be on the Hawks edging past the Cats. In 18 - 24 months months [ maybe sooner] the Cats just have too many players they will have to replace.

Sure, but those players will be replaced by other players. Are you betting that all our replacements are or will be hacks?

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Richmond's approach is interesting. They seemingly want to try have a list refresh whilst still being contenders without falling away totally like Hawthorn, or constantly just being thereabouts but fall just short like Geelong over the past 10 years

Interesting to see if their approach works.
It's definitely a better way of going about it than what Geelong have done and gone in hell and leather with top ups to try get a 'Dangerflag'

 

[Jack Green]

Sure, but those players will be replaced by other players. Are you betting that all our replacements are or will be hacks?

Players the ilk of Hawkins[ 34 next season ] Selwood [34 next season ] Dangerfield 32 start of next season]
Fantastic players -yep, I'm betting your not replacing players of that calibre, like for like over the next couple of seasons.

 

[Seeds]

Said in the 2022 predictions thread that Geelong will continue to win enough games at their kidney ground to finish top 8 and potentially even top 4, but as shown by the Qualifying and Prelim finals, they're as much chance of winning a flag anytime soon, as we are.

The year they made the grand final was the year they played in queensland.

idiot argument debunked. Not that it had to be because anyone with a single brain cell of logic could tell its an idiot argument. geelong is greatly unfairly treated by having far more away games then everyone else.

 

[Seeds]

Hawks are in for a long rebuild. Geelong will remain competitive till 2024-25, then face a decade of pain.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

2024-25? You think selwood and danger and hawkins are playing well as 37 year olds?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Almost incredibly they've gotten older over the trade period. IMO they were the sort of side that should of have a crack at Cerra, an opportunity to improve still, but also start building for the future.

They only have 7 x u/23 players on their list. That has to be very close to an AFL record. On the flip side, they will have 14 x players 30+ next season.

Let’s correct some errors. Age over trade period. Negligible impact.

Lost a 21yo Clark who likely is replaced with an 18yo draftee. Replaced a 28yo ruckman we don’t use with a 30yo we may use. So hardly a ground breaking inclusion for the age demographic. We’ve gotten older because 40 guys have had another lap around the sun not because we jettisoned Fort for Ceglar.

As for the Cerra comment, our time for trading will be 2022-23 as 8-10 players retire and open up $$$ in the salary cap to spend on FA and trade in young players.

As for the u23 comment. Very arbitrary age selected and time to highlight it. We’ve just culled some u23 deadweight, some 22yo have just turned 23 this year and we haven’t had this years draft. In a months time we may have 4-5 more u23 and if I arbitrarily change that to u24 then we had a further 6 players who for the most part are all best 22.

You can paint whatever picture you want by choosing the cut off point.

Oh another thread on Geelong are going to fall off a cliff...

We aren't rebuilding so pointless comparing us to Hawthorn. just another premise for everybody to post the same old stuff we have been reading since 2011, eventually these posters will be right and crow about it like they managed to predict rain in winter.

Yep. Suspect again there will be no rebuild but more regeneration on the run.

 

[Footy Smarts]

People always talk about the retirees Geelong has coming up but ignore the large group of 22-24 year olds who are just at the stage where they could have breakout years. Henry went from a role player to a gun this year. O'Connor looked to be doing the same with his move to midfield until his year was ruined by injury. Simpson came from nowhere to be super impressive in finals in 2020 and looks a great talent if he can get his body right. People talk about Selwood still being a key player but how many know that Brad Close finished higher in our best and fairest from less games than Selwood this year?

The big question for Geelong is how much improvement is there in O'Connor, Henry, Parfitt, Simpson, Ratugolea, Close, Miers, Narkle, Zach Guthrie

39

Zach Guthrie

Age

25

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

90.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.0

2star

MG

90.0

2star

D

10.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

and Stengle? On top of that how good can Max Holmes, who had as good a first year as you could possibly hope for, become? What about De Koning, Stephens and Evans who are highly rated fairly early draft picks who will get a lot of games from here? If we get a bunch of A-graders then we'll cover the retirements fine and along with some mature recruits we'll likely be finishing in the top 8 for the next 5+ years. If they don't come on we're in trouble.

I actually don't see how there's much difference between the younger players at Geelong and Hawthorn at the moment. Both have a solid group of 22-23 year olds that have shown bits and pieces and will need to go to the next level and match what guys like Henry and Jiath have done. And both have a few highly rated kids who haven't played much. Hawthorn has a couple more 19-21 year olds who might or might not make it but it's hardly a massive difference.

 

[The 747]

Players the ilk of Hawkins[ 34 next season ] Selwood [34 next season ] Dangerfield 32 start of next season]
Fantastic players -yep, I'm betting your not replacing players of that calibre, like for like over the next couple of seasons.

We already have a replacement for Hawkins we recruited him this year, that can has been kicked down the road.

Dangerfield is very difficult to replace.

Selwood is just a good midfielder these days, and we have finished in the top 4 with that output.

 

[Jack Green]

We already have a replacement for Hawkins we recruited him this year, that can has been kicked down the road.

Dangerfield is very difficult to replace.

Selwood is just a good midfielder these days, and we have finished in the top 4 with that output.

We already have a replacement for Hawkins we recruited him this year, that can has been kicked down the road.

Dangerfield is very difficult to replace.

Selwood is just a good midfielder these days, and we have finished in the top 4 with that output.

Yes and no. More no. The 6'5 110 kg power forwards . 300 games + and nearly 700 goals IMO they don't grow on trees. But Cameron will lessen the blow
Selwood and Danger - 14 All Australians between them
And that's not counting the amount of back up staff 30+.
No, the cliff is coming, 747 - it comes for everyone. That's how our system is set up to work. It just depends when .

 

[Elmer_Judd]

People always talk about the retirees Geelong has coming up but ignore the large group of 22-24 year olds who are just at the stage where they could have breakout years. Henry went from a role player to a gun this year. O'Connor looked to be doing the same with his move to midfield until his year was ruined by injury. Simpson came from nowhere to be super impressive in finals in 2020 and looks a great talent if he can get his body right. People talk about Selwood still being a key player but how many know that Brad Close finished higher in our best and fairest from less games than Selwood this year?

The big question for Geelong is how much improvement is there in O'Connor, Henry, Parfitt, Simpson, Ratugolea, Close, Miers, Narkle, Zach Guthrie and Stengle? On top of that how good can Max Holmes, who had as good a first year as you could possibly hope for, become? What about De Koning, Stephens and Evans who are highly rated fairly early draft picks who will get a lot of games from here? If we get a bunch of A-graders then we'll cover the retirements fine and along with some mature recruits we'll likely be finishing in the top 8 for the next 5+ years. If they don't come on we're in trouble.

I actually don't see how there's much difference between the younger players at Geelong and Hawthorn at the moment. Both have a solid group of 22-23 year olds that have shown bits and pieces and will need to go to the next level and match what guys like Henry and Jiath have done. And both have a few highly rated kids who haven't played much. Hawthorn has a couple more 19-21 year olds who might or might not make it but it's hardly a massive difference.

Mate with all due respect, you have been chugging too much kool-aid if you think Geelong's kids have almost as much promise and potential at this stage.

Now granted, you have not had access to the early picks in recent years like Hawthorn in the draft, but on exposed form, aside from Miers and Henry, I have yet to see anything from Geelong's kids to suggest they have a long term future in the game. But obviously I never your VFL games, so there is probably a couple there who have potential, hopefully Chris Scott starts playing them more in the seniors next season..

 

[HairyO]

Hawks are in for a long rebuild. Geelong will remain competitive till 2024-25, then face a decade of pain.


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Maybe even 6 decades eh ?

 

[The 747]

Yes and no. More no. The 6'5 110 kg power forwards . 300 games + and nearly 700 goals IMO they don't grow on trees. But Cameron will lessen the blow
Selwood and Danger - 14 All Australians between them
And that's not counting the amount of back up staff 30+.
No, the cliff is coming, 747 - it comes for everyone. That's how our system is set up to work. It just depends when .

Geelong have never finished lower than 12th. Perhaps we will one day, and we have been fortunate so far.

Those players are difficult to replace, but so were Bartel, Ablett, Scarlett, Taylor, Ottens, Ling, Enright, Corey, Milburn, Johnston and they are all gone.

 

[tenderwarrior]

With Free Agency, as long as players want to play for your club you are a chance to not have to rebuild through the draft as was the traditional means. "The system" has changed substantially in that regard as the landscape has changed, and so though Hawkins/Selwood/Dangerfield are very much in the twilight, it could be feasible that Geelong can find a couple of Free Agents who could come in and have an immediate impact.

Saying all that, I personally had hoped that Geelong put the cue in the rack once GWS matched the Cameron bid, as we should have taken the three 1st round draft picks and started the list refresh.. It is tough though, as hindsight is a !@#ch. Had things been a bit different Geelong may have gone back-to-back in 2020/21 and this would be a totally different conversation.

It is hard to see Geelong winning a flag in 2022, though we wouldn't be the biggest surprise ever if we pinched it. I personally think both sides are a fair ways off being a genuine flag contender/favorite, and I don't see that changing in the medium term. Hawks should be able to rise quicker, as Geelong haven't even started the downward spiral yet, but Geelong could still snatch one in the short-term, and those posters here who deny that outright are probably not being fair...

Geelong could free-fall in 2022 as well. As a fan I have no idea what to expect, but figure that to not make finals at all is a more likely outcome than to make the grand-final.. I suspect that we end up somewhere in between and finish in the bottom half of the 8 and get knocked out the 1st or 2nd week of the finals.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Mate with all due respect, you have been chugging too much kool-aid if you think Geelong's kids have almost as much promise and potential at this stage.

Now granted, you have not had access to the early picks in recent years like Hawthorn in the draft, but on exposed form, aside from Miers and Henry, I have yet to see anything from Geelong's kids to suggest they have a long term future in the game. But obviously I never your VFL games, so there is probably a couple there who have potential, hopefully Chris Scott starts playing them more in the seniors next season..

Geelong has actually had more high picks than Hawthorn in recent years. DGB is literally the only really high pick Hawthorn has had. Since 2016 we've had twice as many top 20 picks and twice as many top 40 picks:

Hawthorn
Pick 6: Grainger-Barras
Pick 13: Will Day
Pick 29: Seamus Mitchell
Pick 29: Finn McGuinness
Pick 35: Conor Downie

Geelong
Pick 15: Jordan Clark
Pick 16: Cooper Stephens
Pick 19: Sam De Koning
Pick 20: Max Holmes
Pick 22: Lachie Fogarty
Pick 24: Tim Kelly
Pick 26: Brandan Parfitt
Pick 33: Shannon Neale
Pick 36: Charlie Constable
Pick 40: Tom Stewart

Kelly and Clark mean we'll have decent draft hands the next 2 years despite bringing in Cameron.

And if you don't think Parfitt or Holmes have long-term futures I can't help you. Parfitt has played every game when available since being recruited and Holmes as a raw 18 year old was able to keep solid AFL players like Higgins, Dahlhaus and Narkle out of the team in finals. Not bad for a guy who basically hadn't played since school footy in year 10.

Amusingly you rate Miers but almost any Geelong fan would have Parfitt, Simpson, Holmes, De Koning and Stephens as more talented youngsters just as a start. Probably Ratugolea too.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Geelong has actually had more high picks than Hawthorn in recent years. DGB is literally the only really high pick Hawthorn has had. Since 2016 we've had twice as many top 20 picks and twice as many top 40 picks:

Hawthorn
Pick 6: Grainger-Barras
Pick 13: Will Day
Pick 29: Seamus Mitchell
Pick 29: Finn McGuinness
Pick 35: Conor Downie

Geelong
Pick 15: Jordan Clark
Pick 16: Cooper Stephens
Pick 19: Sam De Koning
Pick 20: Max Holmes
Pick 22: Lachie Fogarty
Pick 24: Tim Kelly
Pick 26: Brandan Parfitt
Pick 33: Shannon Neale
Pick 36: Charlie Constable
Pick 40: Tom Stewart

Kelly and Clark mean we'll have decent draft hands the next 2 years despite bringing in Cameron.

And if you don't think Parfitt or Holmes have long-term futures I can't help you. Parfitt has played every game when available since being recruited and Holmes as a raw 18 year old was able to keep solid AFL players like Higgins, Dahlhaus and Narkle out of the team in finals. Not bad for a guy who basically hadn't played since school footy in year 10.

Amusingly you rate Miers but almost any Geelong fan would have Parfitt, Simpson, Holmes, De Koning and Stephens as more talented youngsters just as a start. Probably Ratugolea too.

Forgot about De Koning, he will be a decent player no doubt.

Not sold on Parfitt at all at this stage and haven't seen much of the young lads you mention.

At this stage I still reckon the Hawk kids have shown more but these things are never set in stone.

 

[CobberRodgers]

Oh another thread on Geelong are going to fall off a cliff...

We aren't rebuilding so pointless comparing us to Hawthorn. just another premise for everybody to post the same old stuff we have been reading since 2011, eventually these posters will be right and crow about it like they managed to predict rain in winter.

Well, with no flag since 2011, you’d have to say it’s been raining for a decade already.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Neither team have much talent under the age of 23, that’s really the only way they’re comparable.

Hawthorn will start giving their young guys more of an opportunity next year, Geelong won’t.

 

[Rasha]

Richmond's approach is interesting. They seemingly want to try have a list refresh whilst still being contenders without falling away totally like Hawthorn, or constantly just being thereabouts but fall just short like Geelong over the past 10 years

Interesting to see if their approach works.
It's definitely a better way of going about it than what Geelong have done and gone in hell and leather with top ups to try get a 'Dangerflag'

Melbourne went the same route in 2019 as what we're going this year.
That being, focusing on hitting the draft hard after having a down year.
Melbourne's 2019 trade/free agency/draft period saw them strike gold and refresh the list and now they look set for a solid few years of contending.

Bulldogs did similar after they won the flag in 2016 and now they're also looking good to be able to have a solid few years of contending.
Bulldogs and Melbourne both set the precedent and now we're going down the same path.
I won't be surprised to see us bounce back with a vengeance similar to what we've seen from Melbourne and the Bulldogs.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Neither team have much talent under the age of 23, that’s really the only way they’re comparable.

Hawthorn will start giving their young guys more of an opportunity next year, Geelong won’t.

Huh.

Hawthorn had 3 players in the 22 under 22 noms for voting, without Day or DGB.

Geelong had zero.

Hawthorn defeated Lions, Dogs and Drew with Demons, with between 10-12 players 23 and under in each game.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Huh.

Hawthorn had 3 players in the 22 under 22 noms for voting, without Day or DGB.

Geelong had zero.

Hawthorn defeated Lions, Dogs and Drew with Demons, with between 10-12 players 23 and under in each game.

I just don’t see it. Jiath looks good, and I am all in on Ned Reeves, but it’s not an impressive list of guys 23 and under, based purely on exposed form.

Jackson Callow might be a jet though. Can’t help but be impressed with his size, given his age.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I just don’t see it. Jiath looks good, and I am all in on Ned Reeves, but it’s not an impressive list of guys 23 and under, based purely on exposed form.

Jackson Callow might be a jet though. Can’t help but be impressed with his size, given his age.

Maybe you just don’t want to see it.

 

[Millsie69]

The year they made the grand final was the year they played in queensland.

idiot argument debunked. Not that it had to be because anyone with a single brain cell of logic could tell its an idiot argument. geelong is greatly unfairly treated by having far more away games then everyone else.

Lol it was also the one-off year in which games were shortened, which suited your mob of geriatrics. So your argument is also idiotic.

 

[The 747]

This thread has attracted our Hawk hater-brothers now (as intended)....

 

[Jack Green]

Maybe you just don’t want to see it.

Spot on, Strapping. We are all guilty of seeing only what we want to see.

On the Hawthorn site Predictions for 2022 you have the Hawks finishing 7th next year. Not alone mind you and everyone is entitles to an opinion which is the purpose of these forums, but currently one in three Hawkers have them in the 5-8 range next year.

For a side coming off 14th, with the biggest turnover of players post season[11] , second year into a rebuild and a new untried coach, I find the responses...interesting.
Maybe you just don't want to see it

 

[eastfreo75]

Let’s correct some errors. Age over trade period. Negligible impact.

Lost a 21yo Clark who likely is replaced with an 18yo draftee. Replaced a 28yo ruckman we don’t use with a 30yo we may use. So hardly a ground breaking inclusion for the age demographic. We’ve gotten older because 40 guys have had another lap around the sun not because we jettisoned Fort for Ceglar.

As for the Cerra comment, our time for trading will be 2022-23 as 8-10 players retire and open up $$$ in the salary cap to spend on FA and trade in young players.

As for the u23 comment. Very arbitrary age selected and time to highlight it. We’ve just culled some u23 deadweight, some 22yo have just turned 23 this year and we haven’t had this years draft. In a months time we may have 4-5 more u23 and if I arbitrarily change that to u24 then we had a further 6 players who for the most part are all best 22.

You can paint whatever picture you want by choosing the cut off point.

Yep. Suspect again there will be no rebuild but more regeneration on the run.

Geelong had a young Selwood, and Hawkins to rebuild with and got a Dangerfield cheap via Free Agency threat. Then they cleverly used free agency, and going mature recruits to top up.

Apart for Cameron who is 27, their are no generational players coming through at Geelong.

The same strategy won’t work in future because the cornerstones are not their.