The remaining games in four-week blocks

[MC Extra Dollop]

We're 7-0 now and realistically if we can approach the next 16 weeks by trying to limit each four week block to a single loss, we'll almost certainly finish top two on the ladder. So how does that shape up? We all know the old cliches about not looking too far ahead and taking it one week at a time, but what the hell?

Round 8 v Collingwood: This will definitely be a tough game. The Pies look to be getting closer to full-strength, with players like Maxwell, Beams, Ball, Young, Didak and Russell all currently out of the side, but probably being in the mix for Round 8. I'm sure none of us would be devastated with a bruising encounter for the Pies tonight, while our boys can sit back with their feet up. It's definitely an advantage to have the extra day and have our opponents coming back from WA and there's little doubt that we are currently in better form. But (barring injuries tonight) the Pies are going to field close to their strongest side in 2013 and they will give us their best shot. They don't want to drop three games behind us on the ladder. Kelly is likely to be suspended and Poodle will have an extended stint on the sidelines with a broken collarbone.

In line for a return: Chapman, Corey, J.Hunt

Round 9 v Port Adelaide: The Cats will head over to AAMI for a Saturday afternoon game against a Port Adelaide team that figures to be coming off three straight losses (Carlton at Etihad next week). Again, we have the benefit of an extra day to prepare and, although we didn't bring home the chocolates - against the Crows - last time we travelled to SA, it's been a pretty happy hunting ground for us of late. It will be interesting to see how we approach this game at selection and whether we start the rotation of our KPPs here or the week after.

In line for a return: Kelly (hopefully), Vardy, Caddy, Brown, Murdoch

Round 10 v Gold Coast: The 'easy' portion of the fixture starts here and it seems to be a good time to rest some old warhorses and give a few of the younger players a go. Problem is, who's going to want to miss this one? The first game under lights at Kardinia Park, against our former champion and probably a milestone game for Paul Chapman. We'll again have an extra day's break (it will be Gold Coast's second game in a row in Victoria, having played Hawthorn at the MCG the week before). The Suns can be a dangerous team and it's not going to be as easy as the last time they played down in Geelong (they haven't been beaten by more than 50 points so far this year). Still, considering the circumstances surrounding this game, it's very tough to see the Cats losing.

Round 11 v GWS: Yet another 7-day break before we make our first trip to Skoda Stadium, to take on the bottom-placed Giants. More young blokes into the lineup and more veterans being rotated for other veterans. While GWS has some very exciting talent, what you can count on them to do is fall asleep for a quarter or two in each game. In their six games so far this year, they've allowed their opponents to kick 6+ goals in eight quarters (including the fourth quarter for the last five weeks in a row) and they've been outscored by 4+ goals in seven quarters. That doesn't bode well for against a team as explosive as the Cats

In line for a return: Rivers

Rd 12: Bye
Rd 13: Brisbane @ Gabba, Sunday twilight
Rd 14: Fremantle @ Simonds, Saturday night
Rd 15: Hawthorn @ MCG, Saturday night

Rd 16: Melbourne @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
Rd 17: Adelaide @ AAMI, Sunday afternoon
Rd 18: St Kilda @ Simonds, Saturday night
Rd 19: North Melbourne @ Etihad, Friday night

Rd 20: Port Adelaide @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
Rd 21: West Coast @ Patersons, Saturday night
Rd 22: Sydney @ Simonds, Saturday twilight
Rd 23: Brisbane @ Simonds

 

[fpm84]

Nice work MC.

On the Pies, Maxwell will play next week (he returns for them tonight). Beams and Young are no chance. Ball has had two VFL games but there's no VFL this week so it'd be a huge risk for them to bring him back next week - he'd surely be the sub if they went down that path.

Pies haven't been at their best this year (personnel unavailable hasn't helped) but they made us look second rate twice last year and will no doubt treat next week like a final. I can't wait to see how we go.

The next three games are must wins - Port have really dropped off and were very poor against the Cotchin-less Tigers. There's definitely room for experimentation over these few days - I expect Hawk to be rested for at least one week (will hopefully help that back problem) which opens the door for Vardy to return or a Kersten debut. From memory Rivers should be back during this period, perhaps Harry can have a game or two as a full time forward like he did against GWS last year?

This terrific start to the season has really set us up for a top four spot. With seven games at home to come, a home final should be the aim. Hawks and Swans lost five games each last year and finished top two. Barring a loss against a bottom eight side - which we simply haven't had in years - there are only a few danger games on paper. Collingwood, Hawthorn, West Coast (away) and possibly Adelaide (away) - we also play Swans and Freo at Geelong. If we win at least two of those games, which you'd expect us to, top two beckons.

 

[Geelong_Gen]

i think cats have a chance on winning all in cluding gf and im going to the colling wood cats match at the mcg

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Pies haven't been at their best this year (personnel unavailable hasn't helped) but they made us look second rate twice last year and will no doubt treat next week like a final. I can't wait to see how we go.

At the risk of stating the obvious, I think it could really be a season-defining game for both sides. If Collingwood drop that one (regardless of tonight's result, which is certainly no gimme for them), the top four starts looking difficult for the Pies. On the other hand, we probably couldn't have hoped for 7-0 in our wildest dreams and the risk is that we could be justified in thinking we can maybe 'afford' to drop one. With that in mind, how good would it be if we can play Collingwood, who will be treating the game as an early final, and match their intensity right from the start?

 

[fpm84]

At the risk of stating the obvious, I think it could really be a season-defining game for both sides. If Collingwood drop that one (regardless of tonight's result, which is certainly no gimme for them), the top four starts looking difficult for the Pies. On the other hand, we probably couldn't have hoped for 7-0 in our wildest dreams and the risk is that we could be justified in thinking we can maybe 'afford' to drop one. With that in mind, how good would it be if we can play Collingwood, who will be treating the game as an early final, and match their intensity right from the start?

Good observation. I must confess I subscribe to the theory that we can drop one - of course I want us to win every week but as you say, Collingwood may feel it has more to play for particularly if it loses tonight. If we lost, we'd still be odds on to be 10-1 in a month which is exceptional given we will have faced three of last year's top four and four other finals prospects (Bombers, Blues, North, Tigers).

If we come out next week and really make a statement - wow.

 

[Senatorguesty]

I only see 4 50/50 games ahead, next week, hawks at the 'G, eagles over there and swans at home.
The rest are better than 60/40.
We will drop games, everyone does eventually.

 

[footscore]

If we come out next week and really make a statement - wow.

Collingwood will be lucky to make the top 6 this year, ordinary players getting found out these days.
Too many older players on their last legs and when you have a player like Dale Thomas considering moving to their rivals in Carlton all because he doesn't get along with the coach...that speaks volumes of what the club is about.

 

[fpm84]

Collingwood will be lucky to make the top 6 this year, ordinary players getting found out these days.
Too many older players on their last legs and when you have a player like Dale Thomas considering moving to their rivals in Carlton all because he doesn't get along with the coach...that speaks volumes of what the club is about.

That's a bit simplistic IMO. Their older players are younger than our 'old' players and most of their stars like Pendlebury and Cloke are in their prime. They've been ravaged by injuries and have a few players lacking match fitness. They've been beaten badly by Hawks and Bombers but were well in both games halfway through the third quarter before falling away.

We're definitely getting them at the right time of year and deserve to start favourites, but I expect them to storm home once they get a few key players back (and back in form).

I expect the top four to be us, Pies, Hawks and Swans.

 

[you pick one]

The only downside I can see is our last H&A game at the G is RD15 early July.I would have preferred to play one there in the last month leading into the finals.

 

[Geelong_Gen]

well i reckon that the pies are getting a bit stressed and are not moving as they normaly do but if the cats stay up in the first half they will zoom away in the second and also with the new young gun thurlow we might have even more chance. as we saw yesterday the young guns got alot of the ball
GO CATS

 

[thecatattack]

Wouldn't be surprised if the first game we drop is rnd 21 vs WCE.

But I'm sure we'll drop some before that.

 

[footscore]

That's a bit simplistic IMO. Their older players are younger than our 'old' players

Of all Geelong's older brigade, the only players who are still irreplaceable are Chapman, Johnson, Bartel and Enright.
We are already starting to replace Corey with Horlin-Smith, Hunt is having trouble getting back in with Guthrie's form on the rise, J-Pod has Kersten, Vardy ready to pounce while Kelly will miss 2 weeks through suspension in which Caddy will stand up in his absence.

Collingwood players who are 29 and over comprise of Maxwell, Jolly, Hudson, Didak, Krakouer, Swan, Johnson & Lynch while Ball turns 29 in 2 weeks time as well.

 

[Geelong_Gen]

Of all Geelong's older brigade, the only players who are still irreplaceable are Chapman, Johnson, Bartel and Enright.
We are already starting to replace Corey with Horlin-Smith, Hunt is having trouble getting back in with Guthrie's form on the rise, J-Pod has Kersten, Vardy ready to pounce while Kelly will miss 2 weeks through suspension in which Caddy will stand up in his absence.

Collingwood players who are 29 and over comprise of Maxwell, Jolly, Hudson, Didak, Krakouer, Swan, Johnson & Lynch while Ball turns 29 in 2 weeks time as well.

that is true in a few years time collingwood wont go to well without those key players

 

[FredLeDeux]

Of all Geelong's older brigade, the only players who are still irreplaceable are Chapman, Johnson, Bartel and Enright.
We are already starting to replace Corey with Horlin-Smith, Hunt is having trouble getting back in with Guthrie's form on the rise, J-Pod has Kersten, Vardy ready to pounce while Kelly will miss 2 weeks through suspension in which Caddy will stand up in his absence.

Collingwood players who are 29 and over comprise of Maxwell, Jolly, Hudson, Didak, Krakouer, Swan, Johnson & Lynch while Ball turns 29 in 2 weeks time as well.

I don't think we have anybody ready to replace Kelly yet, or even this season. IMHO Cadds is a fair way off that yet, in fact they've hardly played him inside so far. But I think that's where he'll end up.

 

[FredLeDeux]

maybe but he's no Jimmy Bartel and he has only played the 3 games this year and we have covered well without him so far, so his eventual loss won't be as significant as the overall ability Bartel brings with the marking, disposal use and all out exceptional brilliance.

Yep, Jimmy is, I agree, a better all-round player, and his versatility also makes him more useful.
But I thought you were talking about which of our older players are currently irreplaceable, and I think Kelly falls into that category, especially because (as we saw last night) he is still far and away our best at doing the crash and bash in the guts when the ball's in a 50/50 position, and getting it out to our other players.

 

[Geelong_Gen]

well motlop is like steve j so thats is good

 

[pinion]

if we get past collingwood this week then we have a pretty good run until hawthorn in round 15

we've certainly seen off a tough start and the draw really opens up now

 

[Vdubs]

I only see 4 50/50 games ahead, next week, hawks at the 'G, eagles over there and swans at home.
The rest are better than 60/40.
We will drop games, everyone does eventually.[/quote]


Maybe.
Perhaps we can aim to be the first AFL team in history to go through a total season undefeated, finals included, a befitting tribute to the Greatest Team Of All.
Of course, that all goes to water if we drop next week.
Those who know my posting will realise this is NOT what I believe, but right now, we are the only team that could dare have this hope.

 

[HappyChappy35]

I only see 4 50/50 games ahead, next week, hawks at the 'G, eagles over there and swans at home.
The rest are better than 60/40.
We will drop games, everyone does eventually.

Sydney is more than 50/50, especially given it's at home. Would say it's at least 60/40. Think the scales are tipped in our favour next week too, although the Pies did well to fight back tonight against the Dockers and will be bolstered by the possible returns of Beams, Ball, Maxwell, and Young.

Having said that I think we should beat Collingwood. They rely heavily on guys like Swan, Pendlebury, and Cloke, so take their stars out of the game and that greatly increases our chances of winning. Also have a few holes in their structure and a high-possession gameplan that doesn't stack up very well when opposing sides apply lots of pressure, which we did last night against the Bombers. We've also accounted for two of the sides who thrashed the Pies not long ago in Hawthorn and Essendon.

Port is a probable win but by no means a certainty, especially if we rock up lackadaisically and just expect to get the points. GC at home could get very ugly, and we'll beat GWS although it would hardly surprise me if they made a contest of it.

After the bye, Brisbane is a very likely win. Freo the following week match up well on us and will cause some trouble, but they tend to struggle in Victoria and playing at KP won't do them any favours.

I'm tipping our first loss will be at the hands of Hawthorn, they are playing some great footy and are long overdue to end the streak. We'll probably drop a few games in the 2nd half of the year when we are in a heavy training load and easing back somewhat before the finals (which looks highly likely from here barring something like a shocking run with injuries or an asteroid hitting Kardinia Park tomorrow). Of course a lot can and will happen/change during that time but that's just my two cents.

From here I'll go with:
R8 v Collingwood- 60/40, win
R9 v Port Adelaide- 80/20, win
R10 v GC- certain win
R11 v GWS- certain win
R13 v Brisbane- very likely win
R14 v Freo- 60/40, win
R15 v Hawthorn- 50/50, loss
R16 v Melbourne- certain win
R17 v Adelaide- 60/40, loss
R18 v St Kilda- very likely win
R19 v North- 55/45, loss
R20 v Port- very likely win
R21 v West Coast- 50/50, loss
R22 v Sydney- 60/40, win
R23 v Brisbane- very likely win

There are a number of 50/50 or 60/40 contests in there, 7 of them in fact. If we manage to break even and win 3-4 of those it would leave us with 18-19 wins at the completion of the H&A season, factoring in of course the 'very likely' wins which are games we won't drop if we are serious about being flag contenders. Not a bad position to be in IMO, a W/L ratio like that would almost certainly get us a top 4 spot.

Anyway nothing is a given and in all likelihood I'll probably end up being off the mark with my predictions. Just that an easier draw and 7 home games in the 2nd half of the year, coupled with the returns we're yet to see to our senior 22 (J.Hunt, Rivers, Kelly, Poodle, Corey, Chapman, hopefully Varcoe and McIntosh later on if all goes to plan), will allow us to breathe more freely in the run home now that we've won our first 7.

 

[FredLeDeux]

agree to disagree Fred, I think if we can replace Ling and Ablett who did similar to what you are speaking of then don't think his loss will be quite as profound as the others I mentioned.

OK

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Wouldn't be surprised if the first game we drop is rnd 21 vs WCE.

But I'm sure we'll drop some before that.

The thing is, if we don't lose to Collingwood, it's almost inevitable that we will lose somewhere when we are a $1.30 or shorter favourite. Take 2011 for example. West Coast in Round 16, sure, no-one was going to be shocked if we dropped that one. But Essendon in Round 15? Make no mistake: no-one gave Essendon a snowball's chance in hell of winning that game. If we beat Collingwood, if we beat Hawthorn, if we beat Sydney, if we beat North Melbourne we'll end up dropping a game like Brisbane at the Gabba. It will happen.

That's why you can be guaranteed that despite all the 'one week at a time' rhetoric, the club is preparing for the rest of the season by trying to give itself the best possible chance to win whatever games they think will be required to finish top two/top four and to be as close to full-strength as possible in September. That's it. 'One week at a time' is for teams that are in the position that we were last year.

 

[THE CAT WRANGLER]

We can't relax each game has its dangers just don't need any more injuries need some extra height ASAP

I would like to try Burbury, Eardley & Kersten over the next month or so

 

[FredLeDeux]

The thing is, if we don't lose to Collingwood, it's almost inevitable that we will lose somewhere when we are a $1.30 or shorter favourite. Take 2011 for example. West Coast in Round 16, sure, no-one was going to be shocked if we dropped that one. But Essendon in Round 15? Make no mistake: no-one gave Essendon a snowball's chance in hell of winning that game. If we beat Collingwood, if we beat Hawthorn, if we beat Sydney, if we beat North Melbourne we'll end up dropping a game like Brisbane at the Gabba. It will happen.

That's why you can be guaranteed that despite all the 'one week at a time rhetoric', the club is preparing for the rest of the season by trying to give itself the best possible chance to win whatever games they think will be required to finish top two/top four and to be as close to full-strength as possible in September. That's it. 'One week at a time' is for teams that are in the position that we were last year.

Am I misreading this MC?
Are you really saying that if we beat all the good sides it becomes inevitable that we lose to a weak side?
Or, to put it another way, that if we lose to a weak side it becomes inevitable that we beat all the good sides?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Am I misreading this MC?
Are you really saying that if we beat all the good sides it becomes inevitable that we lose to a weak side?
Or, to put it another way, that if we lose to a weak side it becomes inevitable that we beat all the good sides?

Just saying that we're not going to go through the season undefeated and you only have to be a little bit down for a middle-of-the-road team to roll you. So you can go through the fixture and pick out all the 50-50 games to see where the losses might be, but I think there's just going to inevitably be a let-down game or two throughout the season.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Just saying that we're not going to go through the season undefeated and you only have to be a little bit down for a middle-of-the-road team to roll you. So you can go through the fixture and pick out all the 50-50 games to see where the losses might be, but I think there's just going to inevitably be a let-down game or two throughout the season.

It's not logically inevitable of course, in that historical statistics are irrelevant to the issue; but I agree that teams are comprised of individuals, it only takes a certain proportion to be psychologically off the boil in order to tip the balance, and players (a large proportion of them risk-takers) will often find it harder to get up against a weaker team.