The remaining games in four-week blocks

[The rabbi]

Wouldn't be surprised if the first game we drop is rnd 21 vs WCE.

But I'm sure we'll drop some before that.

I wouldn't be surprised if the first game we drop is next week against the Pies.

Losing next week against any side is always a possibility. But losing against a seasoned finals side is a greater possibility.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I wouldn't be surprised if the first game we drop is next week against the Pies.

Losing next week against any side is always a possibility. But losing against a seasoned finals side is a greater possibility.

Aaahhh, yes, but if we beat them next week, they'll be a seasoned ex-finals side.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I wouldn't be surprised if the first game we drop is next week against the Pies.

Losing next week against any side is always a possibility. But losing against a seasoned finals side is a greater possibility.

Yep...couldn't agree more. This is a final for them now. It's a long way back, if they go to 4-4. If we match their intensity from the first bounce and knock them off, I'd consider it the best win of the year (as enjoyable as the Hawthorn, Sydney and Essendon games were). It's by far the most important game for an opposition side we've played against so far in 2013 and if we can beat them, in my opinion, it's going to say a lot about our team's mindset this year.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Yep...couldn't agree more. This is a final for them now. It's a long way back, if they go to 4-4. If we match their intensity from the first bounce and knock them off, I'd consider it the best win of the year (as enjoyable as the Hawthorn, Sydney and Essendon games were). It's by far the most important game for an opposition side we've played against so far in 2013 and if we can beat them, in my opinion, it's going to say a lot about our team's mindset this year.

Spot on.

 

[Partridge]

win, win, win, win, good thing Kelly gets suspended at the right time, had it been 2 weeks ago, we may have missed him but an easy run coming up.

Sorry FS, there's nothing good about Kelly getting suspended.

 

[Partridge]

Of all Geelong's older brigade, the only players who are still irreplaceable are Chapman, Johnson, Bartel and Enright.
We are already starting to replace Corey with Horlin-Smith, Hunt is having trouble getting back in with Guthrie's form on the rise, J-Pod has Kersten, Vardy ready to pounce while Kelly will miss 2 weeks through suspension in which Caddy will stand up in his absence.

Collingwood players who are 29 and over comprise of Maxwell, Jolly, Hudson, Didak, Krakouer, Swan, Johnson & Lynch while Ball turns 29 in 2 weeks time as well.

Sorry FS, but disagree with that. Chapman has missed the last 3 and we've won them all. While you could say the Dogs and Richmond were easier games Essendon was as tough as it gets and we won fine without him.

Corey with Horlin-Smith - totally agree. Josh Hunt for Guthrie - totally agree. Podsiadly with Kersten - no way. Kersten hasn't played a single game yet, as promising as he looks he's still unknown. Vardy at least has senior experience but needs runs on the board at senior level. Caddy isn't within light years of Kelly yet and isn't proven at Geelong (or really overall). He didn't play Friday night and with everyone fit I can't see how he makes our best 22.

 

[footscore]

Sorry FS, there's nothing good about Kelly getting suspended.

well, there is so no point being a sour puss about it and having a go at posters who try to put a positive spin on things.
You are very good at it Partridge but I'm not concerned. I said exactly the same thing about Kelly and Johnson's loss in round 1 and you told me how wrong I was for saying such a thing but I knew the kids would stand up as they had done in the praccie games the previous month.

Kelly was poor to do what he did but mate, this is AFL, he's played in an era where that kind of stuff was fair game every single week, he's not 22 and able to change his instincts within the space of 18 months.
He will get suspended and miss but this is where I always get shot down....Caddy is a gun in the making, he will most likely play a rippa against Collingwood in the VFL and will find himself back in the team.

I created a thread asking whether Kelly is elite...majority said yes and many said no, I am seriously starting to question my initial feelings about him now because as soon as he starts to find that All-Australian form, he does this or gets injured and takes a backward step all over again. He simply can't keep doing it because I have absolutely no doubt Caddy or another youngster will hold their spot just as Guthrie and Horlin-Smith are doing this year.

 

[And_ROOS]

Just keep winning baby!

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Ok...so one of the blocks is down and, in terms of wins and losses, so far so good. Can we keep the next four weeks (only three games) to one loss or fewer?

Round 12: Bye

Round 13 v Brisbane Lions: For the third game out of four, Geelong will be hopping on a plane, this time to take on the Lions at the Gabba. The Lions take their bye this week, getting an eight day break (after taking on Freo at Patersons) ahead of this Sunday twilight game. On our form to date, it points to a slow start for the Cats. Brisbane should still be missing Leuenberger and Rich, though Rockliff should be back, along with Brown and Merrett from suspension. Stefan Martin is probably also a chance. It will be a great challenge for Hawkins to go against Merrett, as well as Lonergan to keep Brown quiet. Collingwood locked down Pearce Hanley to great effect and someone probably needs to go to Zorko, as he is capable of kicking 4+ goals.

In line for a return: Taylor, Motlop, Horlin-Smith, Caddy, Simpson

Round 14 v Fremantle: Both teams will be coming back from a six day break for this Saturday night game at the Cattery. Geelong would be quite happy for it to be another cold, wet, miserable night as they go for their ninth straight in Geelong. Pavlich is a certainty to be back and he's another one that Lonergan would be quite keen to prove a point on. Walters and Sandilands could also line up, which would beef up their side significantly. Barlow, Mundy, Fyfe, the Pearces and McPharlin are all going well, while we'd obviously like Guthrie, Hunt or Enright to keep Ballantyne (and Walters for that matter) goalless. The Dockers have stood up to almost every challenge so far this year and this is going to be a game that both teams have circled in the calendar, since the fixtures first came out. We should be very happy to get a win here. It's a statement game.

In line for a return: Rivers

Round 15 v Hawthorn: Another Saturday night game, another premiership fancy as the opponent. Supporters of both teams, as well as neutrals, will be expecting one of the games of the year. It's a bit too far out to speculate how many of our LTIs (Varcoe, T.Hunt, McIntosh) will be in line for a run for this one, though it would be great to have all three on the field. For Hawthorn, Rioli and Whitecross will be back, as they basically clear their injury list, besides the season-enders. Hawthorn backs up off a six day break, which will be a slight advantage to Geelong and we'll be hoping that they have a bruising encounter in Round 14 against Brisbane. A flip of the coin this far out and it will probably be the same in three weeks' time. Surely we can't do it 11 times in a row?

Despite there only being three games, at this stage, it looks like the toughest block of the season (considering every man and his dog is waltzing into Subiaco and knocking off the Eagles these days). I'd be very happy to go 2-1 and we can pretty much lock in a home qualifying final with 3-0.

Rd 16: Melbourne @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
Rd 17: Adelaide @ AAMI, Sunday afternoon
Rd 18: St Kilda @ Simonds, Saturday night
Rd 19: North Melbourne @ Etihad, Friday night

Rd 20: Port Adelaide @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
Rd 21: West Coast @ Patersons, Saturday night
Rd 22: Sydney @ Simonds, Saturday twilight
Rd 23: Brisbane @ Simonds

 

[Emperor66669]

Ok...so one of the blocks is down and, in terms of wins and losses, so far so good. Can we keep the next four weeks (only three games) to one loss or fewer?

Round 12: Bye

Round 13 v Brisbane Lions: For the third game out of four, Geelong will be hopping on a plane, this time to take on the Lions at the Gabba. The Lions take their bye this week, getting an eight day break (after taking on Freo at Patersons) ahead of this Sunday twilight game. On our form to date, it points to a slow start for the Cats. Brisbane should still be missing Leuenberger and Rich, though Rockliff should be back, along with Brown and Merrett from suspension. Stefan Martin is probably also a chance. It will be a great challenge for Hawkins to go against Merrett, as well as Lonergan to keep Brown quiet. Collingwood locked down Pearce Hanley to great effect and someone probably needs to go to Zorko, as he is capable of kicking 4+ goals.

In line for a return: Taylor, Motlop, Horlin-Smith, Caddy, Simpson

Round 14 v Fremantle: Both teams will be coming back from a six day break for this Saturday night game at the Cattery. Geelong would be quite happy for it to be another cold, wet, miserable night as they go for their ninth straight in Geelong. Pavlich is a certainty to be back and he's another one that Lonergan would be quite keen to prove a point on. Walters and Sandilands could also line up, which would beef up their side significantly. Barlow, Mundy, Fyfe, the Pearces and McPharlin are all going well, while we'd obviously like Guthrie, Hunt or Enright to keep Ballantyne (and Walters for that matter) goalless. The Dockers have stood up to almost every challenge so far this year and this is going to be a game that both teams have circled in the calendar, since the fixtures first came out. We should be very happy to get a win here. It's a statement game.

In line for a return: Rivers

Round 15 v Hawthorn: Another Saturday night game, another premiership fancy as the opponent. Supporters of both teams, as well as neutrals, will be expecting one of the games of the year. It's a bit too far out to speculate how many of our LTIs (Varcoe, T.Hunt, McIntosh) will be in line for a run for this one, though it would be great to have all three on the field. For Hawthorn, Rioli and Whitecross will be back, as they basically clear their injury list, besides the season-enders. Hawthorn backs up off a six day break, which will be a slight advantage to Geelong and we'll be hoping that they have a bruising encounter in Round 14 against Brisbane. A flip of the coin this far out and it will probably be the same in three weeks' time. Surely we can't do it 11 times in a row?

Despite there only being three games, at this stage, it looks like the toughest block of the season (considering every man and his dog is waltzing into Subiaco and knocking off the Eagles these days). I'd be very happy to go 2-1 and we can pretty much lock in a home qualifying final with 3-0.

Rd 16: Melbourne @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
Rd 17: Adelaide @ AAMI, Sunday afternoon
Rd 18: St Kilda @ Simonds, Saturday night
Rd 19: North Melbourne @ Etihad, Friday night

Rd 20: Port Adelaide @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
Rd 21: West Coast @ Patersons, Saturday night
Rd 22: Sydney @ Simonds, Saturday twilight
Rd 23: Brisbane @ Simonds

Round 14, 15, 17, 19, 21, 22 are danger games for us 50/50

 

[footscore]

Round 14, 15, 17, 19, 21, 22 are danger games for us 50/50

we will smack Fremantle!
They were completely embarrassed by that mob last year and exited the finals with their tail between their legs.

Game is no where near a 50/50 contest imo and Adelaide, North Melbourne will pose little threat when we are running at top pace by that stage of the year.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Round 14, 15, 17, 19, 21, 22 are danger games for us 50/50

I personally think the next block (Round 16-19) looks slightly more daunting now than it will in a month's time. I'm hopeful that Adelaide will be pretty much out of finals contention when we get them in Round 17 (5-6 now, with Richmond away, Gold Coast away, West Coast at home and Collingwood away before we meet. They probably need to win three of those to still be in serious contention) and North will almost definitely by out of the hunt by Round 19 (4-7 with Freo away, GWS at home, Richmond at Etihad, Brisbane away, Carlton at Etihad, Melbourne at Etihad before us. They probably need to go 5-1 - 4-2 at the absolute worst - to be a chance for September). It's always nice to come up against a couple of teams with nothing to play for in late July-early August.

On the other hand, West Coast at Patersons (with the Eagles possibly fighting for a finals spot, or a home elimination final) and Sydney at Simonds (perhaps battling with us for a home qualifying final) could be massive games.

 

[Partridge]

we will smack Fremantle!
They were completely embarrassed by that mob last year and exited the finals with their tail between their legs.

Game is no where near a 50/50 contest imo and Adelaide, North Melbourne will pose little threat when we are running at top pace by that stage of the year.

And the same thing was said before the final too. Only difference is they're better this year. And they'll have Pavlich back. Good chance for Lonergan to atone against him. He needs to.

 

[footscore]

And the same thing was said before the final too. Only difference is they're better this year. And they'll have Pavlich back. Good chance for Lonergan to atone against him. He needs to.

injuries and playing unfit players hurt us in that game.
Fremantle were cherry ripe, albeit no McPharlin that night.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Not exactly how we would have expected it, but so far, so good and still on track to get to 18 wins. Just approach the two remaining four game blocks, avoiding two losses in either of them and a top two spot is pretty much secure (Sydney, Essendon or Fremantle would need to go undefeated from here on to finish on more than 72 points)

Rd 16: Melbourne @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
Ruthless. That's what we need to be in this game. The Dees will be approaching it with nothing to lose and they should have a couple of their established players back in the lineup. They will be coming off a six day break and will not be afraid to make a few mistakes to try to open us up. We're still waiting for a game where we win all four quarters in 2013, and next week would be as good a time as any. Strong form by the VFL side, a few intense games in a row and Johnson returning from suspension means there could be a few changes next week.

In line for a return: Johnson, Smedts, Horlin-Smith, Brown, West, Varcoe (?)

Rd 17: Adelaide @ AAMI, Sunday afternoon
A tricky sort of game in Round 17, with the risk of complacency setting in against a team that could well be 6-9 (Adelaide has Collingwood at the MCG next Friday night) heading in on their home deck. 12 wins doesn't look like it will be enough for finals, so the Crows will be desperate to knock our boys off and keep their slim finals hopes flickering. Getting someone to stop Dangerfield from running riot would be a good start.

In line for a return: Varcoe, Vardy

Rd 18: St Kilda @ Simonds, Saturday night
Another good chance to really put a poor team to the sword in Round 18 and we should relish this chance. It's an understatement to say that St Kilda's players are unfamiliar with Kardinia Park: besides the odd TAC or VFL game, most of their players would never have played on the ground. The Saints have been getting whipped routinely since their win against Carlton in Round 7 and the Cats should outclass them here.

In line for a return: Rivers

Rd 19: North Melbourne @ Etihad, Friday night
The door isn't quite shut on the Roos for a finals (either top eight or top nine) berth and with three winnable games coming up before our Etihad rematch, they could very well be above parity by the time our teams meet. Of course, Brisbane at the Gabba and Carlton at Etihad shouldn't be picnics, so they could also be 7-10. Even if finals is out of the equation for North, they will be keen to atone for the Round 2 heartbreak, in this Friday night match. It should be an absolute cracker and Geelong will have to play its best footy to get the four points. A big test here.

A couple of tough games, but all-in-all, this must be considered a golden opportunity for the side to get to 16-2. Let's hope they can take advantage of it and give themselves every chance to finish the season on 18+ wins.

Rd 20: Port Adelaide @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
Rd 21: West Coast @ Patersons, Saturday night
Rd 22: Sydney @ Simonds, Saturday twilight
Rd 23: Brisbane @ Simonds

 

[manboob]

Not to sound like a w***er, but we'd be stiff if we drop another game from here.

 

[Duskfire]

Not to sound like a Moo, but we'd be stiff if we drop another game from here.

Nah am iffy about West Coast and North. North just seem to play well against us lately, regardless of where the teams are placed ladder wise, and we always seem to struggle against West Coast in Subiaco (ignoring that 100+ win against them a few years back when West Coast were crap.) Not to mention, us losing to Brisbane pretty much proves we can lose to any team anywhere really.

 

[manboob]

Nah am iffy about West Coast and North. North just seem to play well against us lately, regardless of where the teams are placed ladder wise, and we always seem to struggle against West Coast in Subiaco (ignoring that 100+ win against them a few years back when West Coast were crap.) Not to mention, us losing to Brisbane pretty much proves we can lose to any team anywhere really.

North would be the game I would be most disappointed to lose. We would have had West Coast last year if not for Tommy being out, plus they were a much better side then. Losing two interstate games wouldn't be great if we have to travel for a final god forbid.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

North would be the game I would be most disappointed to lose. We would have had West Coast last year if not for Tommy being out, plus they were a much better side then. Losing two interstate games wouldn't be great if we have to travel for a final god forbid.

West Coast had Kennedy (Coleman Medal leader), LeCras, Rosa and Dalziell (BOG last night and in excellent form) among others in to the side last night from the team that knocked us off last year. They'd also be confident that Wellingham, Shuey, S.Selwood and A.Selwood will be available to play (so Hurn - and possibly Nicoski - is the only player out of their best 22 that they'll definitely be missing). If we forget their ladder position and look at the side that they'll be able to put on the park at Subiaco (and the fact that we might be locked in to top two by that stage, while they will probably be playing for their season), they're certainly a team that needs to be respected. They could line up against us in Round 21 with this team:

B: Glass, Mackenzie, Waters
HB: Schofield, Brown, Butler
C: Gaff, Priddis, Masten
HF: Shuey, Darling, LeCras
F: Cox, Kennedy, Hill
R: Naitanui, S.Selwood, Kerr
I/C: Wellingham, Rosa, Dalziell, Sheppard, Brennan, A.Selwood, Embley, Cripps, Hutchings, Wilson

Their form at Subiaco is the wildcard. They're 2-5 this year and one of those wins was the Naitanui goal after the siren against North Melbourne, who absolutely threw the game away. Surely that is an anomaly and they will get that record back near parity by the end of the season. But I think it would be foolhardy in the extreme to just look at the respective spots on the ladder and dismiss them as an opponent.

 

[Senatorguesty]

West Coast had Kennedy (Coleman Medal leader), LeCras, Rosa and Dalziell (BOG last night and in excellent form) among others in to the side last night from the team that knocked us off last year. They'd also be confident that Wellingham, Shuey, S.Selwood and A.Selwood will be available to play (so Hurn - and possibly Nicoski - is the only player out of their best 22 that they'll definitely be missing). If we forget their ladder position and look at the side that they'll be able to put on the park at Subiaco (and the fact that we might be locked in to top two by that stage, while they will probably be playing for their season), they're certainly a team that needs to be respected. They could line up against us in Round 21 with this team:

B: Glass, Mackenzie, Waters
HB: Schofield, Brown, Butler
C: Gaff, Priddis, Masten
HF: Shuey, Darling, LeCras
F: Cox, Kennedy, Hill
R: Naitanui, S.Selwood, Kerr
I/C: Wellingham, Rosa, Dalziell, Sheppard, Brennan, A.Selwood, Embley, Cripps, Hutchings, Wilson

Their form at Subiaco is the wildcard. They're 2-5 this year and one of those wins was the Naitanui goal after the siren against North Melbourne, who absolutely threw the game away. Surely that is an anomaly and they will get that record back near parity by the end of the season. But I think it would be foolhardy in the extreme to just look at the respective spots on the ladder and dismiss them as an opponent.

Although I agree with what you say that side is not a top 8 team.
It doesn't matter how good people think that side is, the fact is they will not make finals, ergo, we should win relatively comfortably aslong as we bring something close to our best.
I don't doubt the Cats hold a grudge and would realise that dropping the game last year (we lead all day and lost at the end with no Hawkins for 3 quarters so it wasn't exactly a bad lose) cost us a top 4 and will be desperate to ensure they kill the eagles finals chance.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Although I agree with what you say that side is not a top 8 team.
It doesn't matter how good people think that side is, the fact is they will not make finals, ergo, we should win relatively comfortably aslong as we bring something close to our best.
I don't doubt the Cats hold a grudge and would realise that dropping the game last year (we lead all day and lost at the end with no Hawkins for 3 quarters so it wasn't exactly a bad lose) cost us a top 4 and will be desperate to ensure they kill the eagles finals chance.

My point is that lineup looks significantly better than the one that beat us last time we played and probably better than their finals lineup of 2012 (with the inclusions of Wellingham, LeCras, Waters, Dalziell, and Brown (among others), at the expense of just Lynch and Hurn.

Even if we assume that Essendon will not lose premiership points at the conclusion of the AFL/ASADA investigations, if results go to script this week, they will be one game and percentage behind Port Adelaide for eighth spot. Say Port loses 105-65...they will be just 3.1% (and four points) ahead of the Eagles. And Port is playing Hawthorn next week (fair enough, West Coast doesn't exactly have an easy game against the Dockers). So, not only is it premature to write the Eagles off for finals in 2013; they could very possibly be in the top eight as early as the end of next week.

 

[Scottland2007]

Sydney the only danger game in my opinion.... Also, ahem, (mumbles quietly) maybe Brisbane, past form and all....

 

[fpm84]

I reckon we'll lose two more - Sydney, North and West Coast the obvious possibilities. Swans could well be playing for a top four spot by the time we play them; West Coast might be playing for a finals spot.

Adelaide away will be interesting. They're a shadow of the side they were last year but I'm still haunted by our last game there - easily our worst performance of the season.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Probably the easiest four-week block of the season on paper resulted in our most disappointing month of the year, with only wins against the 16th and 17th placed sides registered. Dropping further games against Adelaide and North has left the Cats with no safety net and they now probably need to go 3-1 to have a shot at finishing top two, while 4-0 will clinch it.

On the brightside, the losses this year have come against teams who are paying (respectively) $21, $501, $501 and $151 to win the premiership, meaning we still haven't lowered our colours against a legitimate premiership contender (sure, the Pies are capable of providing some nuisance value and I'm sure there'd be some nervous moments in the week leading up if we met them in a final, but whether they beat us or not, it's highly unlikely that they can win the flag from where they are).

A further positive, if you're keen for the real Geelong to stand up, is that we have four serious games to finish off our season, motivated opposition in each and a possible grand final preview against Sydney, which could decide which team gets a home qualifying final.

Rd 20: Port Adelaide @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
It's been a sad indictment on the team that this year it seems that every time the Cats have come up against a middle-of-the-road side that has been 'playing for its season', they've rolled us. Well, next week there's another one that will be paying a visit to the Cattery. While we've been gifted two extra days' break and Port will hopefully be feeling sore and sorry after the Crows have thrown the kitchen sink at them this week (see: Dangerfield's return), the Power are about as close to full strength as an AFL side could be at the moment. They are clinging to their spot in the eight (may find themselves out by the end of this weekend) and after an insipid performance in round 19, Geelong will be looking for the usual four quarter display that has been mostly absent this year.

Plenty of players running around in the VFL who will be keen to stake their claim and it will be interesting to see if players like Chapman, Christensen and Rivers can press for selection in this critical game. Chapman probably needs an additional week, but you can bet that the match committee would be sorely tempted if he blitzes it in the game against the Scorpions. Murdoch could also push for a spot and Chris Scott will also be keeping an eye on others on the periphery, like Brown, Stringer, Kersten, Cowan, Thurlow and Schroder.

In line for a return: Christensen, Rivers, Podsiadly, Horlin-Smith

Rd 21: West Coast @ Patersons Stadium, Sunday afternoon
You can bet the crowd will be out in force for this one, after the ill-feeling that marred the contest last year. We haven't won at this venue in over two years and haven't beaten the Eagles there since 2010. If Essendon can knock off West Coast at Etihad in Round 20, the Eagles faint finals' hopes will be completely dashed. But if West Coast can win that game, it could be yet another game against a team with everything to play for; a finals atmosphere. Chapman was a late withdrawal for the corresponding fixture in 2012; we could certainly have used him that night and we'd love to have him back for this game. It appears to be his logical return date, all going to plan in the VFL between now and then. We have missed Chapman desperately over the past two months. Of course all our boys would hurt from these shitty losses, but I don't think there's much doubt that Chappy would be the one who'd stew the most over them.

The home ground advantage is offset somewhat by our boys having an extra day between games. West Coast has significant injury concerns at the moment. With their season all but over, there is a question of whether to give Naitanui the rest of the year off, rather than aggravating his troublesome groin. That would be a huge boost for our boys, as Cox/Lycett doesn't look anywhere near as imposing as Naitanui/Cox. Hurn and Waters will still be out, LeCras and Masten will probably be out and Shuey could be out. The Cats would (and should) be sick of losing games over there; our interstate record has been quite poor recently and this is an absolute must win. Get it done, boys.

In line for a return: Chapman

Rd 22: Sydney @ Simonds, Saturday twilight

Obviously there's a lot of doom and gloom at the moment, but the fact remains, this is a must-win game, if we want a home qualifying final and it's at Simonds. Like it or not, we have met every single 'serious' challenge this year and I can't even remember off the top of my head the last time we dropped a game that had serious ramifications at Simonds (the last two losses were dead rubbers).We have a day's extra break, but again, we will be flying back from WA.

With all the pessimism about our ability to hold on to a top two spot (even top four from some) on here, it's pretty easy to overlook the fact that the Swans have a fairly brutal end to the season, with Collingwood (whom they haven't beaten at ANZ since 2005), Geelong and Hawthorn in their final four games. Goodes, Jetta, Reid and LRT would all be expected to be out of their lineup at this stage. A statement game for the Cats, as far as I'm concerned and I think we'll win it.

Rd 23: Brisbane Lions @ Simonds, Saturday afternoon
If our boys aren't switched on for this one, then I'm not sure what you can say. Everything is in place for a comprehensive thumping, including a longer break (while staying in Geelong) and - of course - a bit of redemption, following an embarrassing capitulation at the Gabba earlier in the year. We may or may not be assured of top four/top two, by the time the ball is bounced (my money would be on: top four - yes; top two - no) and so it's quite likely that rather than just getting a bit of revenge, this will be an absolutely critical result for us. In our era of dominance, you can say what you like, but we've never looked this shaky in the top four this late in the season, so often a game like this wouldn't have a lot of sting in it. On the other hand, we don't want our players doing anything crazy and getting injured or suspended, so it's vital that they put the game away early and find that balance for the rest of the way. With so many capable players fighting for spots, there will be plenty of intensity in this game, but to be honest, I'd be happy enough with a comfortable 6-8 goal win, where we are never seriously threatened and we head into the finals unscathed.

 

[catstorm]

Easily the toughest game in that bunch is West Coast, some would say Sydney but i think we play them very well and home field is very important.

However we have shown all season that we do not play interstate very well at all ( Port and Sydney games excluded) Adelaide, Brisbane we lost and GWS and GC we played very average.

I think we lose the west coast game but win the other 3, so 3-1 with 17 wins which means we must hope that either Freo, Essendon, or Sydney drop another game or we finish 5th.

Freo has only two even 50/50 games Carlton and Port they win both those they will finish 5-0 with 17 1/2 wins

Essendon have it very tough with lose-able games against Collingwood, Norths, Richmond, and Carlton i cant see them winning them all, but if they do they have 18wins

Sydney have Collingwood, Hawthorn and Geelong we need them to drop 2 of those games preferably one against us if they win them all they have 18 1/2 wins

Just for loughs Hawthorn have a tough draw Richmond, Norths, Collngwood, and Sydney unlikely as it sounds if they drop 3 of those they could feasibly finish outside the top 4 with only 17 wins.

ow well i may as well do Collingwood and Richmond to, both have an outside chance of top 4

Richmond have Hawthorn, Carlton, and Essendon they win out and finish with 16 wins, there best hope would be for Sydney to drop all 3 of their tough games as well as Essendon to lose 3 games or 2 with a healthy % hit against them.

Collingwood have Essendon, Sydney, Hawthorn, and Norths a very tough finish like Richmond if they win out they finish with 16 wins and need the same scenario as Richmond.