Prediction The Run Home - Our last 5 fixtures before Sheptember

Will the club have folded by September?

  • Yes

    Votes: 4 11.1%
  • No

    Votes: 2 5.6%
  • Of course

    Votes: 10 27.8%
  • Jack Watts

    Votes: 16 44.4%
  • The club has already folded

    Votes: 13 36.1%

  • Total voters
    36

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ZergMinion

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Feb 5, 2009
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From the article - I think they do

View attachment 713876
Well fair enough, though their simulations are based on their statistics and they got Melbourne so badly wrong in the pre-season :D

The 50% chance of the Eagles finishing in the top 4 is representative of them not having a clue how to use statistics to rate our team.
 

ioppolo

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Oct 3, 2010
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LOL, yep. And that is why we need a Super Saturday Rd 23 fixture. All games bounce down at the same time, to minimise any chances of manipulation. Or the perception of manipulation.
How awesome would that be. 2017 would have been even funnier
 

oak79

Premiership Player
Jul 1, 2005
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Should start favourites in 4 of 5.

If we win:
1 : finals (7-8)
2 - 3 : home final (5-6)
3 - 4 : Top 4
4 - 5: Top 2

Though in theory we could win all 5, and not finish top 2 - or Lose all 5 and still make finals.
 

MrKK

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Mar 11, 2012
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That prediction graphic would be horrible if true. Collingwood and Essendon hosting finals could see us sent to Geelong.

4-1 should get us to top 2, maybe 3-2 as long as we beat Richmond. I could see Lions dropping 2-3 of their last 5; I think Hawks will do them this week.
 

ZergMinion

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Let's win one game first and guarantee finals. I think the one game at a time approach is the right one because everything else changes fast.

From there it'll be another win for a home final most likely, and then another for top 4. I would have taken a finals appearance to back up the premiership at the start of the year, so I'd be thrilled with top 4.
 

AsterixTheGaul

Plucked from the Amos
Sep 12, 2013
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Looking at the betting odds, there are predicted to be no close games in R20 for the clubs we will be jostling position for.

R19 this week has us clear at 1.33, while the Hawks/Lions is split and Tigers are fancied at 1.54 to beat the Pies
 

Gaffy Duck

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May 12, 2019
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Champion Data has us finishing fourth which would mean an away game to a shared ground against Geelong. Both the Eagles and the Cats call the MCG their alternate home ground so apart from the air travel, not be too bad.

Obviously the preferred outcome would be to win the next 5 and we stay at Optus but the alternative still gives us a double chance

View attachment 713869
Champion Data also said Melbourne had the best list
 

Keys

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Oct 11, 2006
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I think we can all agree that it is best to ignore Champion Data for realistic analysis. Supercoach, fine. Real footy, no.
Stats, regardless of who collates them, are good for explaining for what happened but next to useless for predicting what will

It’s the fundamental flaw with Champion Data extrapolating past results into future predictions. The sooner the media realise this and stop sprouting it as some sort of gospel the better
 

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Tugga27

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Jun 19, 2017
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Stats, regardless of who collates them, are good for explaining for what happened but next to useless for predicting what will

It’s the fundamental flaw with Champion Data extrapolating past results into future predictions. The sooner the media realise this and stop sprouting it as some sort of gospel the better
Yep, you get one upset and most of their predictions can go out the window.
 

Brolga

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Nov 20, 2011
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Champion Data use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp-post.
For support rather than illumination

My tealeaves say 4-1
 

Asapartyhat

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Apr 25, 2012
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It is possible for three teams outside the eight currently on eight wins ,Port,Hawthorn and the Bulldogs to each win their last five games and finish on thirteen wins.They do not play each other so no garanteed loses for any of them so it might take fourteen wins just to be garanteed a top eight spot without a very good percentage.
-Still a long way to go in the season but we have very little wriggle room and need to win four more games to be a realiatic top two definate top four chance.I reckon we can .The Richmond game worries me not because I fear them.They have only beaten us once in five years and that was dodgy time at the mcg but theres every chance a few things can go wrong, an injury or two a bit of dud umpiring and the margins for error are not very much in any game .As we learned v Collingwood.
Really think very serious time for the Eagles starts this weekend and pacing yourself through the marathon season is just about up and the sprint finish starts early this year.
 

ZergMinion

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It is possible for three teams outside the eight currently on eight wins ,Port,Hawthorn and the Bulldogs to each win their last five games and finish on thirteen wins.They do not play each other so no garanteed loses for any of them so it might take fourteen wins just to be garanteed a top eight spot without a very good percentage.
-Still a long way to go in the season but we have very little wriggle room and need to win four more games to be a realiatic top two definate top four chance.I reckon we can .The Richmond game worries me not because I fear them.They have only beaten us once in five years and that was dodgy time at the mcg but theres every chance a few things can go wrong, an injury or two a bit of dud umpiring and the margins for error are not very much in any game .As we learned v Collingwood.
Really think very serious time for the Eagles starts this weekend and pacing yourself through the marathon season is just about up and the sprint finish starts early this year.
I ran a ladder predictor where Port, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs won all their remaining games. GWS missed the 8 with 12 wins. It's not what you'd call a likely outcome :D
 

AsterixTheGaul

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If 2019 has demonstrated anything, it is that this season is full of surprises.

Doggies, Hawks, Norf, Freo and both SA teams have not necessarily looked the best at times then have had big upsets. With a month or so to go, I expect the surprises to continue.
 
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Nima

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Jul 30, 2013
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I could argue we have been the most consistent team this year not that great, but not that far off either, just tracking at 70% all year is better than 2 100% and 3 50%. The other team that comes close to us regarding form and potential is Richmond. I know Geelong and Lions are ahead on ladder, but both those teams have major issues relating to age which will haunt them come finals. Brisbane will do well, but lack of experience will eventually take its toll on them. Dogs 2016 achievement is very rare and should not be a reference or a blue print.It will most likely not happen again just like Leicester winning the EPL. Lot of stars need to align for you to get there. Cats are too old, peaked too early, and most importantly, showed their best available game. Both Richmond and Eagles have another gear or two and Cats will not be able to match them. This year has 2017 premiers Vs 2018 Premiers GF written all over it. Forget the run home, Both these teams are due for a monster collision come last week of September, and they know it.
 

Candiru

Premiership Player
Jan 27, 2018
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Just saw they’ve also got Richmond at the G in round 23, they won’t be winning that. So really, we should be able to tie up second if we an go 4-1, might even get lucky if we go 3-2.
My ladder predictor suggests 4-1 has us second on percentage, by a nose from Richmond. So that could easily be third if they smack a few sides in the next month but we currently have a bit of a buffer.
 

ShaunWCEFC

Team Captain
Jan 22, 2013
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Ladder positions based on teams we are most likely to lose too first. (RIC, ADE, HAW, NM, CAR)

5-0 = 2nd / QF2 v GWS Giants

4-1 = 2nd / QF2 v Richmond

3-2 = 4th / QF1 v Geelong Cats

2-3 = 5th / EF1 v Essendon

1-4 = 7th / EF2 v Adelaide Crows

0-5 = 8th / EF1 v Brisbane Lions
 

Doashuey

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Sep 13, 2017
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I like us against Richmond. They have gone on a good run and everyone is talking them up but I reckon our gamestyle at the G will bring them undone.
 

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