YippeeYiYeo
Norm Smith Medallist
- Jun 21, 2015
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live squiggle has Bulldogs in bottom 5 of the league. Has there ever been such a premiership drop off before?
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Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)
- Thread starter Final Siren
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Adelaide were bottom-4 in 1999, the year after they went back-to-back. (Admittedly, 8-14 was pretty respectable for a 13th place).
Hawthorn last year? Hawks 2015 premiers to Hawks after 5 rounds 2017 was a pretty massive slide. Probably even more severe than doggies when you consider Dogs didn't finish that highly H&A in 2016, and I don't think they've been as bad this year as we were in the first 4-6 rounds last year. Would be surprised if they finish bottom 4, but like us last year, pretty hard to come back from where they are now.
That prelim would be insane
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- Aug 18, 2009
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I think a really notable difference between the two sides is the average age. The Hawks won three flags with an old list (2013: 26y 279d, 2014: 26y 294d, 2015: 27y 304d), and while they've gotten younger since, they've still been older then most sides. In Round 1, 2016, their side was 26y 197d, a year later it was 27y 61d, and last round it was 26y 37d.
The Bulldogs, by contrast, won their 2016 flag with a younger than average side (24y 220d), which has since become even younger; last round, the 22 players they sent out averaged only 23y 299d. Almost every week, they put out the youngest side in the competition, usually far younger than supposedly rebuilding sides like Fremantle (25y 44d last round), Gold Coast (24y 269d), and North Melbourne (25y 124d). Only Carlton are close: 24y 56d.
Average age of the fielded sides correlates quite strongly with wins, and although you can debate which is the chicken and which is the egg -- are older players better at winning games, or do they get dropped more quickly from bad teams -- it's fair to say that any team in the comp would struggle to put out a competitive side with an average age of less than 24.
So there's a bit to like about the Dogs, even though they may well finish bottom 6, because they're giving a much better showing than most teams would with that age profile.
The Hawks haven't been forced to go young yet. They may not need to, but if they do, you'd expect their results to fall off.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
Final Siren
I noticed you’re adding more and more computer analytics to your page for comparisons
Thought you’d be interested in this one
Kenneth Massey ratings
It’s the first I came across of this kind before I found the squiggle.
Here’s his tips (round 1 can change week by week if you want) https://www.masseyratings.com/aus/games?dt=20180326
7, 3, 8*, 7, 2^ (27)
*wouldve been 9 if it treated the Fremantle-Gold Coast game as a freo home game.
^2 games still to go (Richmond by 4 and Collingwood by 18 are it’s tips for the rest of the round)
And here’s the rankings https://www.masseyratings.com/aus/ratings
Biggest movers this week are Adelaide going from 6th to 1st and port going from 5th to 9th
I noticed you’re adding more and more computer analytics to your page for comparisons
Thought you’d be interested in this one
Kenneth Massey ratings
It’s the first I came across of this kind before I found the squiggle.
Here’s his tips (round 1 can change week by week if you want) https://www.masseyratings.com/aus/games?dt=20180326
7, 3, 8*, 7, 2^ (27)
*wouldve been 9 if it treated the Fremantle-Gold Coast game as a freo home game.
^2 games still to go (Richmond by 4 and Collingwood by 18 are it’s tips for the rest of the round)
And here’s the rankings https://www.masseyratings.com/aus/ratings
Biggest movers this week are Adelaide going from 6th to 1st and port going from 5th to 9th
- Aug 18, 2009
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Oh interesting, thanks! I think I've seen this before but forgot about it.
I've only been adding models to squiggle.com.au with the owner's consent -- I'll ask Massey.
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Hawks won 3 flags though and had played 5 years for a PF, GF X 4 and 3 wins. I think that warrant's a pass.
Elton Johns Wig
Premiership Ruckman
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Man, the squiggle looks weird. Cycle between rounds 4 & 5, it looks stretchy due to Tiges heading east.
- Sep 16, 2006
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Wow forecast has Geelong making top 4 on 13 wins. Damn crazy. Then I remember Collingwood finished 4th with 14 wins one season early 2000s, and nearly won the whole damn thing! If I remember right.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
Adelaide went 13-9 in both premiership years finishing 4th and 5th
Who else has won it from 13wins or less since the league went to 22 games
Who else has won it from 13wins or less since the league went to 22 games
Yet last year was the weakest Premiers according to the nuffies.
Current evidence is that the 2016 Bulldogs are the least convincing premier.
I mean they did win it from 7th with only 1 year of making finals. They were a young side that had a solid month.
Never got the comparison with Richmond tbh. Richmond's core were in their prime age-wise and had a solid year by finishing in the top 4. Also, Richmond made 4 out of the last 5 finals series.
Richmond also won every final by a big margin, against all of the best teams in the league.
I guess we both have a vested interest in this.
Maybe, but Adelaide went back-to-back, so I don't really feel threatened on the matter.
I wasnt thinking of the 90's. I was thinking if Richmond were the least convincing premiers, then it would be even worse to be reamed by the least.....
You get my drift.
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1991?
Snake_Baker
The one true King of the North
- Apr 24, 2013
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LOL, we've dropped from 12th to 13th after winning.
Jhye Clark 13
07, 09, 11, 22
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Why does that sound crazy?
Collingwood 2011 was a fair way out there from memory. And Lyon’s saints would’ve been in that region 09-10.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
Didn’t some 1897 teams break it by going so far right
Guess it happens when you keep St Kilda to points.
Guess it happens when you keep St Kilda to points.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
Final Siren
Just out of curiosity
Is there a formula you’ve got in there to take into account when the afl changed it from 25 + timeon to 20 + timeon in the 90s
Just out of curiosity
Is there a formula you’ve got in there to take into account when the afl changed it from 25 + timeon to 20 + timeon in the 90s
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