Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[iluvparis]

I think this is a bit of a chink in the squiggle's armour, if there is one, I think it underestimates the importance of banking wins a little bit. But, it is based on hell of a lot more data than could possibly fit in my head, so I'll take its word for it

That's actually a strength of the squiggle. Humans tend to massively overrate close wins when in reality there is basically nothing between a 3 point win and a 3 point loss. So a 5-0 team that has won every game by 3 points isn't that much better than an 0-5 team that has lost every game by 3 points - but your average human will label one team the GOAT and the other Carlton

 

[Roobs321]

The West Coast squiggle would still be managing with 2017 results, which were underwhelming to say the least.

After Rnd 2 2017, our highest scores for the season were 113 (against the Lions at Subi) and 103 (against Freo). A lot of tightly fought middle-of-the-road results where we barely kicked 10 goals.

In many of those games, we were holding on, or collapsed at critical moments, or just couldn't kick on. This hasn't been a problem in 2018. Banking wins is also not looking like losing. We have a similar winning edge to 2011, and lead for the majority of those wins. The squiggle (rightly) doesn't pay particular regard to this, reads more uncertainty into the ultimate outcome.

2017 like 2014 was a year of many close losses and miserly scores (including opposition). 2014 also predated a Grand Final year.

 

[B4Bear]

The West Coast squiggle would still be managing with 2017 results, which were underwhelming to say the least.

After Rnd 2 2017, our highest scores for the season were 113 (against the Lions at Subi) and 103 (against Freo). A lot of tightly fought middle-of-the-road results where we barely kicked 10 goals.

In many of those games, we were holding on, or collapsed at critical moments, or just couldn't kick on. This hasn't been a problem in 2018. Banking wins is also not looking like losing. We have a similar winning edge to 2011, and lead for the majority of those wins.

I wonder what weighting is put on last years results? Final did post something about that a few years ago, but I can not be stuffed looking through 48,000,025 replies to find it.

I would have thought that by the half way mark of this season, that the results from last year would have any relevance at all on current performance..

 

[Roobs321]

I wonder what weighting is put on last years results? Final did post something about that a few years ago, but I can not be stuffed looking through 48,000,025 replies to find it.

I would have thought that by the half way mark of this season, that the results from last year would have any relevance at all on current performance..

I might have this wrong, but I remember it as the last 12 months (in rounds) informing the squiggle until lapsed/replaced. Given sides will often start a year entirely new, the squiggle will initially seem a little conservative, but as results are replaced will increasingly reflect the complexion of the current season.

That projected North Melbourne-Collingwood SF result is hilariously unfair.

 

[B4Bear]

I might have this wrong, but I remember it as the last 12 months (in rounds) informing the squiggle until lapsed/replaced. Given sides will often start a year entirely new, the squiggle will initially seem a little conservative, but as results are replaced will increasingly reflect the complexion of the current season.

I know it does that, my argument is that by this stage of the season, last years results should probably be washed out of the system. 12 months seems too long to influence their position.

I wonder if there is a version that allows you to drop out last years results at certain points?

 

[YippeeYiYeo]

Squiggle needs some tweaking if it wants to be taken seriously. I dont think there is one pundit in the world that thinks Richmond is as far ahead as the rest of the competition that the squiggle has it. Think recent history needs to be weighted more heavily that games from months ago. Richmond are also nowhere near the calibre of the 2015 hawks, which the current Richmond squiggle suggests.

 

[Ancient Tiger]

Squiggle needs some tweaking if it wants to be taken seriously. I dont think there is one pundit in the world that thinks Richmond is as far ahead as the rest of the competition that the squiggle has it. Think recent history needs to be weighted more heavily that games from months ago. Richmond are also nowhere near the calibre of the 2015 hawks, which the current Richmond squiggle suggests.

If they win the flag they will be.

 

[Joao]

Squiggle needs some tweaking if it wants to be taken seriously. I dont think there is one pundit in the world that thinks Richmond is as far ahead as the rest of the competition that the squiggle has it. Think recent history needs to be weighted more heavily that games from months ago. Richmond are also nowhere near the calibre of the 2015 hawks, which the current Richmond squiggle suggests.

I think it is spot on in Melbourne (especially the G) or against **** teams. No doubt they take a hit when they travel to the good teams.

 

[iluvparis]

Squiggle needs some tweaking if it wants to be taken seriously. I dont think there is one pundit in the world that thinks Richmond is as far ahead as the rest of the competition that the squiggle has it. Think recent history needs to be weighted more heavily that games from months ago. Richmond are also nowhere near the calibre of the 2015 hawks, which the current Richmond squiggle suggests.

Obviously you didn't watch the opening to AFL 360 last night. David King has them streets ahead of the opposition - as do I.

 

[Pessimistic]

Obviously you didn't watch the opening to AFL 360 last night. David King has them streets ahead of the opposition - as do I.

David King? right. I probably agree but smashing Ess by one goal more than Hawthorn did shouldn't really be the evidence

I still think Eagles can dictate a game these days

 

[B4Bear]

Obviously you didn't watch the opening to AFL 360 last night. David King has them streets ahead of the opposition - as do I.

If you are quoting him to support your argument, you are doing it wrong. He screws it up just as often as every other expert.

 

[iluvparis]

If you are quoting him to support your argument, you are doing it wrong. He screws it up just as often as every other expert.

The Eagles fapper only asked for one pundit - he didn't specify a quality level was required.

 

[iluvparis]

David King? right. I probably agree but smashing Ess by one goal more than Hawthorn did shouldn't really be the evidence

I still think Eagles can dictate a game these days

Bit harsh if you think beating Essendon by 70 was an inferior display to beating the Saints in Perth by only 3 goals

 

[joelsyt]

Obviously you didn't watch the opening to AFL 360 last night. David King has them streets ahead of the opposition - as do I.

David King is often wrong about us.

We’re not streets ahead of the rest of the competition. 2 losses away from Melbourne and the MCG says just how close we are to the rest of the top 8.

 

[iluvparis]

David King is often wrong about us.

We’re not streets ahead of the rest of the competition. 2 losses away from Melbourne and the MCG says just how close we are to the rest of the top 8.

Apologies for over emphasizing your pathetic 9-2 season so far.

 

[Joao]

David King is often wrong about us.

We’re not streets ahead of the rest of the competition. 2 losses away from Melbourne and the MCG says just how close we are to the rest of the top 8.

David King is often wrong, I agree.

But you guys only have to avoid an interstate prelim and the rest is mostly a formality. Unless of course Melbourne are legitimately awesome. Then it might get interesting.

 

[iluvparis]

David King is often wrong, I agree.

But you guys only have to avoid an interstate prelim and the rest is mostly a formality. Unless of course Melbourne are legitimately awesome. Then it might get interesting.

Also remember Squigs is now looking at scoring shots rather than total score. The Tiges are 9-2 despite having the worst accuracy in front of goal in the top 4 as well as having the highest accuracy kicked against them. Squiggle probably expects those numbers to normalise a bit as the Tigers cruise to back-to-back flags.

 

[joelsyt]

Apologies for over emphasizing your pathetic 9-2 season so far.

It wasn’t my intention to upset you.

I’m very happy with where we’re at and David King is certainly on the tiger bandwagon this year.

But with all due respect if we were streets ahead of the rest of the competition we’d have beaten West Coast and Adelaide away and beaten North Melbourne by more than 10 points.

 

[iluvparis]

It wasn’t my intention to upset you.

I’m very happy with where we’re at and David King is certainly on the tiger bandwagon this year.

But with all due respect if we were streets ahead of the rest of the competition we’d have beaten West Coast and Adelaide away and beaten North Melbourne by more than 10 points.

If you take one thing away from squiggle it should be that even the best teams struggle to win interstate.

 

[joelsyt]

David King is often wrong, I agree.

But you guys only have to avoid an interstate prelim and the rest is mostly a formality. Unless of course Melbourne are legitimately awesome. Then it might get interesting.

We’ll need to finish top 2 to have our best chance of avoiding an interstate final. However over the next 6-7 weeks we have Port in Adelaide, which seems to be a bogey ground for us, Geelong, who are a bogey team for us, twice, Sydney at Etihad who are a lot better away from home than they are at home and Adelaide at the G who will really really want to beat us on the MCG. So a top 2 finish is far from guaranteed.

Unfortunately we won’t find out if Melbourne are legitimately awesome until later in the year. They don’t play West Coast, who I think will finish top 2 and make the Grand Final, until round 22.

 

[Joao]

It wasn’t my intention to upset you.

I’m very happy with where we’re at and David King is certainly on the tiger bandwagon this year.

But with all due respect if we were streets ahead of the rest of the competition we’d have beaten West Coast and Adelaide away and beaten North Melbourne by more than 10 points.

This would be true if Victorian home finals and the GF weren't at the MCG, but they are and therefore you guys are miles ahead of everyone. Dees a smokey to challenge you.

 

[Pessimistic]

Bit harsh if you think beating Essendon by 70 was an inferior display to beating the Saints in Perth by only 3 goals

Clearly comparing the tiges hammering of ess to the hammering of ess by Hawthorn.

My point about the eagles is they are dictating the play and don't seem too concerned about big wins. The eagles of old

 

[joelsyt]

This would be true if Victorian home finals and the GF weren't at the MCG, but they are and therefore you guys are miles ahead of everyone. Dees a smokey to challenge you.

That would be an interesting final. Richmond v Melbourne at the MCG. I hope it happens, but we’ll see. I’d love to see that live.

 

[iluvparis]

Clearly comparing the tiges hammering of ess to the hammering of ess by Hawthorn.

My point about the eagles is they are dictating the play and don't seem too concerned about big wins. The eagles of old

Don't seem to care about? Or aren't good enough to go on and truly annihilate bad teams? This was the same argument put up by Freo supporters a couple of years ago when they were winning small because they 'always took their foot of the pedal' - squiggle knew it was because they weren't as good as their record showed and squiggle was right.

 

[joelsyt]

Don't seem to care about? Or aren't good enough to go on and truly annihilate bad teams? This was the same argument put up by Freo supporters a couple of years ago when they were winning small because they 'always took their foot of the pedal' - squiggle knew it was because they weren't as good as their record showed and squiggle was right.

It’s interesting.

I think west coast are a genuine contender but they can’t seem to get big wins away from home. Melbourne and Sydney however can and do get big wins away from home.