Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[The Swert]

Some incredibly close predictions being made by the squiggle for the last 4 rounds in finals defining matches.

Margins under a goal:
Ess v Haw
Bri vs Nth
Syd vs Col
Haw v Gee
WC v Mel
Bri v WC
Syd v Haw

What an exciting month of football we have coming!

 

[Jack5]

Im relatively new to squiggle and have a few questions. Hopefully I haven't missed them if theyve come up in this thread already.

Do all games have equal weightings in the model or is three a weighting towards more recent games? Or do games drop off as the season progresses? Have these variables been examined for predictive power of the model?
How does volatility / consistency factor into a teams assessment?
Is this season in keeping with behind =3 points goal = 4 points? Do any teams show signs of varying from this?
Does HGA vary by team?
Is weather factored into the model? Wet weather would intuitively seem to reduce scores - is this equal for all teams?- though I am mindful of relying on intuition for such things.
Are the variables distributions assumed to be std normal or do some show skewed left/right or have fat/skinny tails?

 

[HTT]

Im relatively new to squiggle and have a few questions. Hopefully I haven't missed them if theyve come up in this thread already.

1) Do all games have equal weightings in the model or is three a weighting towards more recent games? Or do games drop off as the season progresses? Have these variables been examined for predictive power of the model?
2) How does volatility / consistency factor into a teams assessment?
3)Is this season in keeping with behind =3 points goal = 4 points? Do any teams show signs of varying from this?
4)Does HGA vary by team?
5) Is weather factored into the model? Wet weather would intuitively seem to reduce scores - is this equal for all teams?- though I am mindful of relying on intuition for such things.
6) Are the variables distributions assumed to be std normal or do some show skewed left/right or have fat/skinny tails?

FS probably has some better answers but because I enjoy talking about the squiggle
1) From memory most recent game is worth 5% of the total rating. The 2nd most recent score is worth 5% of the 95% that remains, so naturally games decrease in value as time goes on - so yes more recent games are weighted.

2) I’m not quite sure what you mean by this. All teams are assumed to be performing at 100% all the time so squiggle doesn’t assume inconsistency, if that’s what you mean

3) From memory the squiggle rates behind as 4.3pts and goals as 2.7 - this is just across the board

4) HGA is based on the comparative familiarity of two teams to the ground. e.g Richmond v Collingwood at the G = effectively no advantage, Richmond v Geelong at the G = moderate advantage (4 points), Richmond v Brisbane at the G = big advantage (10-12 points), so yes in a way it can be considered to vary by team

5) No, probably a minor weakness but teams usually regress back to where they were - you’d expect they wouldn’t maintain their position as the squiggle will overrate them, so they won’t meet expectations, and hence regress

6) have no idea really

Hope I was at least a little helpful, happy squiggling.

 

[Jack5]

FS probably has some better answers but because I enjoy talking about the squiggle
1) From memory most recent game is worth 5% of the total rating. The 2nd most recent score is worth 5% of the 95% that remains, so naturally games decrease in value as time goes on - so yes more recent games are weighted.

2) I’m not quite sure what you mean by this. All teams are assumed to be performing at 100% all the time so squiggle doesn’t assume inconsistency, if that’s what you mean

3) From memory the squiggle rates behind as 4.3pts and goals as 2.7 - this is just across the board

4) HGA is based on the comparative familiarity of two teams to the ground. e.g Richmond v Collingwood at the G = effectively no advantage, Richmond v Geelong at the G = moderate advantage (4 points), Richmond v Brisbane at the G = big advantage (10-12 points), so yes in a way it can be considered to vary by team

5) No, probably a minor weakness but teams usually regress back to where they were - you’d expect they wouldn’t maintain their position as the squiggle will overrate them, so they won’t meet expectations, and hence regress

6) have no idea really

Hope I was at least a little helpful, happy squiggling.

Thanks harrythetiger.

Questions 2 and 6 relate to the montecarlo models that i think ? drives the future scenarios. I'm guessing a bit here. Maybe related to this is how do upsets get chosen/tipped?

 

[HTT]

Thanks harrythetiger.

Questions 2 and 6 relate to the montecarlo models that i think ? drives the future scenarios. I'm guessing a bit here. Maybe related to this is how do upsets get chosen/tipped?

Yeah I think I get what you mean now - not sure exactly what the answer is though. Final Siren is probably your man there.

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

check out the logjam squiggle is still unsure on



Really looking forward to seeing how it changes in weeks to come

 

[Forward Press]

Some incredibly close predictions being made by the squiggle for the last 4 rounds in finals defining matches.

Margins under a goal:
Ess v Haw
Bri vs Nth
Syd vs Col

Squiggle is a genius. All hail the Squiggle.

 

[magpienato]

Auto-tip on Squiggle has us finishing 2nd. Hahahah

|| W | L | D | %
\1.| Richmond |18|4|0|137.7%
\2.| Collingwood |15|7|0|119.4%
\3.| West Coast |15|7|0|116.9%
\4.| GWS |14|7|1|116.0%
\5.| Melbourne |14|8|0|128.4%
\6.| Geelong |14|8|0|125.9%
\7.| Hawthorn |14|8|0|117.3%
\8.| Port Adelaide |14|8|0|114.1%
\9.|North Melbourne|13|9|0|108.2%
\10.|Sydney|12|10|0|105.6%
\11.|Adelaide|12|10|0|102.4%
\12.|Essendon|11|11|0|100.5%
\13.|Fremantle|7|15|0|80.7%
\14.|Western Bulldogs|7|15|0|75.9%
\15.|Brisbane Lions|5|17|0|89.4%
\16.|Gold Coast|5|17|0|65.0%
\17.|St Kilda|4|17|1|74.8%
\18.|Carlton|3|19|0|62.5%

QF1: Richmond v GWS
QF2: COLLINGWOOD v West Coast

 

[Suma Magic]

Final Siren

Sorry if this is getting annoying, but is there any chance you could do top 2 % chances again?

Cheers.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren

Sorry if this is getting annoying, but is there any chance you could do top 2 % chances again?

Cheers.

No problem! In these turbulent times, we need hard numbers to tell us how anxious to be.

Top 2 likelihood:
100% Richmond
61% West Coast
16% Melbourne
12% GWS
5% Collingwood
3% Hawthorn
3% Port Adelaide
2% Geelong
0% Anyone else

Some rounding involved here, so they don't total exactly 200%.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

No problem! In these turbulent times, we need hard numbers to tell us how anxious to be.

Top 2 likelihood:
100% Richmond
61% West Coast
16% Melbourne
12% GWS
5% Collingwood
3% Hawthorn
3% Port Adelaide
2% Geelong
0% Anyone else

Some rounding involved here, so they don't total exactly 200%.

West Coast's percentage obviously doesn't factor in us being without Gaff, Naitanui and possibly Kennedy for the rest of the season

 

[The Dice Man]

No problem! In these turbulent times, we need hard numbers to tell us how anxious to be.

Top 2 likelihood:
100% Richmond
61% West Coast
16% Melbourne
12% GWS
5% Collingwood
3% Hawthorn
3% Port Adelaide
2% Geelong
0% Anyone else

Some rounding involved here, so they don't total exactly 200%.

Curious as t the rounding on the Tigers. If GWS and WCE win all their remaining games and Tigers lose all theirs we could finish 3rd. In fact there is a remote chance we could finish 8th.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Curious as t the rounding on the Tigers. If GWS and WCE win all their remaining games and Tigers lose all theirs we could finish 3rd. In fact there is a remote chance we could finish 8th.

You play 11th, 14th and 17th. Squiggle probably doesn't think you're a huge chance of losing all three of those.

 

[HTT]

Curious as t the rounding on the Tigers. If GWS and WCE win all their remaining games and Tigers lose all theirs we could finish 3rd. In fact there is a remote chance we could finish 8th.

For us to drop out of the two we need to drop all 3 and GWS need to win all 3
If they are independent events, we can just multiply the probabilities of each of those events. Doing that suggests it’s a 0.049% chance of happening, meaning we have a 99.951% chance of finishing top 2 - which of course round to 100%

 

[The Dice Man]

ok 99.951. I accept that as 100%

 

[Hobbes]

Richmond +19 v Geelong
Hawthorn +1 v Essendon
Brisbane +11 v North Melbourne
Adelaide v Port Adelaide +8
St Kilda +21 v Western Bulldogs
Sydney v Collingwood +13
Carlton v GWS +45
Melbourne +49 v Gold Coast
West Coast +30 v Fremantle

5/9.

1. Richmond 25.8
2. GWS 22.7
3. Hawthorn 15.22
4. Melbourne 15.17 (+2)
5. West Coast 13.0 (+3)
6. Essendon 11.6 (-2)
7. Geelong 10.7
8. Collingwood 8.5 (-3)
9. Port Adelaide 6.0
10. Adelaide 2.9 (+1)
11. North Melbourne 0.2 (+1)
12. Brisbane 0.1 (-2)
13. Sydney -5.3
14. St Kilda -15.2
15. Western Bulldogs -19.4 (+1)
16. Fremantle -25.4 (-1)
17. Gold Coast -36.2
18. Carlton -38.3

GWS looking like the main threat to Richmond

Essendon +27 v St Kilda
Hawthorn +5 v Geelong
Gold Coast v Richmond +56
Port Adelaide +6 v West Coast
Collingwood +14 v Brisbane
GWS +29 v Adelaide
North Melbourne +20 v Western Bulldogs
Melbourne +25 v Sydney
Fremantle +22 v Carlton

And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 17.7
2. West Coast 15.5
3. GWS 14.6 (+1)
4. Hawthorn 14.00 (+4)
5. Collingwood 13.98 (-2)
6. Melbourne 13.7
7. Port Adelaide 13.5 (-2)
8. Geelong 13.4 (-1)
9. Sydney 12.81
10. North Melbourne 12.76
11. Adelaide 11.65 (+1)
12. Essendon 11.62 (-1)
13. Fremantle 8.0
14. Western Bulldogs 7.0 (+2)
15. Brisbane 5.7 (-1)
16. St Kilda 5.3 (-1)
17. Gold Coast 4.1
18. Carlton 2.7

 

[threesixpio]

Richmond +19 v Geelong
Hawthorn +1 v Essendon
Brisbane +11 v North Melbourne
Adelaide v Port Adelaide +8
St Kilda +21 v Western Bulldogs
Sydney v Collingwood +13
Carlton v GWS +45
Melbourne +49 v Gold Coast
West Coast +30 v Fremantle

5/9.

1. Richmond 25.8
2. GWS 22.7
3. Hawthorn 15.22
4. Melbourne 15.17 (+2)
5. West Coast 13.0 (+3)
6. Essendon 11.6 (-2)
7. Geelong 10.7
8. Collingwood 8.5 (-3)
9. Port Adelaide 6.0
10. Adelaide 2.9 (+1)
11. North Melbourne 0.2 (+1)
12. Brisbane 0.1 (-2)
13. Sydney -5.3
14. St Kilda -15.2
15. Western Bulldogs -19.4 (+1)
16. Fremantle -25.4 (-1)
17. Gold Coast -36.2
18. Carlton -38.3

GWS looking like the main threat to Richmond

Essendon +27 v St Kilda
Hawthorn +5 v Geelong
Gold Coast v Richmond +56
Port Adelaide +6 v West Coast
Collingwood +14 v Brisbane
GWS +29 v Adelaide
North Melbourne +20 v Western Bulldogs
Melbourne +25 v Sydney
Fremantle +22 v Carlton

And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 17.7
2. West Coast 15.5
3. GWS 14.6 (+1)
4. Hawthorn 14.00 (+4)
5. Collingwood 13.98 (-2)
6. Melbourne 13.7
7. Port Adelaide 13.5 (-2)
8. Geelong 13.4 (-1)
9. Sydney 12.81
10. North Melbourne 12.76
11. Adelaide 11.65 (+1)
12. Essendon 11.62 (-1)
13. Fremantle 8.0
14. Western Bulldogs 7.0 (+2)
15. Brisbane 5.7 (-1)
16. St Kilda 5.3 (-1)
17. Gold Coast 4.1
18. Carlton 2.7

Haven’t followed this thread enough. Has this year broken squiggle? Been a pretty unpredictable year

 

[Pessimistic]

Richmond +19 v Geelong
Hawthorn +1 v Essendon
Brisbane +11 v North Melbourne
Adelaide v Port Adelaide +8
St Kilda +21 v Western Bulldogs
Sydney v Collingwood +13
Carlton v GWS +45
Melbourne +49 v Gold Coast
West Coast +30 v Fremantle

5/9.

1. Richmond 25.8
2. GWS 22.7
3. Hawthorn 15.22
4. Melbourne 15.17 (+2)
5. West Coast 13.0 (+3)
6. Essendon 11.6 (-2)
7. Geelong 10.7
8. Collingwood 8.5 (-3)
9. Port Adelaide 6.0
10. Adelaide 2.9 (+1)
11. North Melbourne 0.2 (+1)
12. Brisbane 0.1 (-2)
13. Sydney -5.3
14. St Kilda -15.2
15. Western Bulldogs -19.4 (+1)
16. Fremantle -25.4 (-1)
17. Gold Coast -36.2
18. Carlton -38.3

GWS looking like the main threat to Richmond

Essendon +27 v St Kilda
Hawthorn +5 v Geelong
Gold Coast v Richmond +56
Port Adelaide +6 v West Coast
Collingwood +14 v Brisbane
GWS +29 v Adelaide
North Melbourne +20 v Western Bulldogs
Melbourne +25 v Sydney
Fremantle +22 v Carlton

And the predictive ladder

1. Richmond 17.7
2. West Coast 15.5
3. GWS 14.6 (+1)
4. Hawthorn 14.00 (+4)
5. Collingwood 13.98 (-2)
6. Melbourne 13.7
7. Port Adelaide 13.5 (-2)
8. Geelong 13.4 (-1)
9. Sydney 12.81
10. North Melbourne 12.76
11. Adelaide 11.65 (+1)
12. Essendon 11.62 (-1)
13. Fremantle 8.0
14. Western Bulldogs 7.0 (+2)
15. Brisbane 5.7 (-1)
16. St Kilda 5.3 (-1)
17. Gold Coast 4.1
18. Carlton 2.7

Sadly, hawks beating Cats loos the most likely to be wrong

 

[Hobbes]

Some incredibly close predictions being made by the squiggle for the last 4 rounds in finals defining matches.

Margins under a goal:
Ess v Haw
Bri vs Nth
Syd vs Col
Haw v Gee
WC v Mel
Bri v WC
Syd v Haw

What an exciting month of football we have coming!

I notice that for the three matches which have been played, there were indeed three margins under a goal.

 

[caloschwaby]

Haven’t followed this thread enough. Has this year broken squiggle? Been a pretty unpredictable year

Agreed that this year seems more unpredictable compared to others.
That being said, there are some games (GC v Sydney) that no matter how good The Almighty Squiggle is, there's no way to predict such upsets.

 

[tazaa]

Eigth spot to come down to %age between Port and North

 

[DanWCE]

West Coast with reasonable defensive movement

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Big winners from the weekend according to the Tower

Sydney - went from 32% chance of playing finals to 79.9%

Hawthorn - now in a two-way battle with Collingwood for the final top-four spot, leaped up from 25.2% to 49.4%

Big losers:

Melbourne - final four chances slashed from 48.6% to 10.4%

Port - went from 79.9% chance of playing finals to 54.6%

North - went from a hopeful 31.7% chance of playing finals to rank outsiders at 7.4%

Adelaide - Slim finals chances officially snuffed out.

 

[Underarm]

Why does Squiggle rate Melbourne to beat GWS?

 

[Gralin]

Why does Squiggle rate Melbourne to beat GWS?

It's being played in Melbourne for starters