Mega Thread The Stats Thread

[bungwahl]

Yep, and we let our opposition have the worst disposal efficiency in the league based on the above stats too. So basically we turn every game into a shankfest

Yes but you have to take into consideration that we play the most contested style in the league. More ball in contested, tight situations leads to less accuracy. Also take note that we are also the number 1 side in disposal efficiency against. i.e. teams that play us average the least efficient disposals - so perhaps that's an explanation of why we are 3rd on the ladder.

It's like that old saying, you don't need to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other guy.

Edit: what swansfan51 said.

I suppose we have played a lot of wet weather footy this season too, which probably lowers our DE.

 

[RW]

Yes but you have to take into consideration that we play the most contested style in the league. More ball in contested, tight situations leads to less accuracy. Also take note that we are also the number 1 side in disposal efficiency against. i.e. teams that play us average the least efficient disposals - so perhaps that's an explanation of why we are 3rd on the ladder.

It's like that old saying, you don't need to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other guy.

Edit: what swansfan51 said.

Spot on, we've played like this for years. I guess when you adopt that style of play you have to make the most of your scoring chances when you get them otherwise your efforts in restricting the opposition are in vain if you can't score yourself. Forward line has struggled in the last couple of weeks, partly due to the weather (vs GCS) and partly due to our midfield getting owned (v GWS). It will be a challenge to recapture the form we showed in the first third of the season, even more so without Tippett.

 

[Tedeski]

For the last 10 years or so, our opposition have had to prepare themselves for one of the hardest, most physical, finals like games of their season, each & every time they play us.

Whether we turn up for any particular match in this mode is another story such as in the Richmond game. These games happen. But rest assured we are & have been the bench mark & most respected team for this reason for more than a decade.

GWS for example had to play at their absolute peak to take us down last week & I have a good hunch that our boys were a little worse for wear after the wettest game in history against GC. These games happen too.

So basically, this weekend, if Melbourne have been reveling in their glory over the 'super' victory against Buckley's tough Magpies, & drop their efforts by 1% because Tippo won't be there, while we play 2 % better than last week, then they are in for yet another lesson on what it takes week in week out to be a finalist, let alone a consistent winning finalist.

We consistently take our opposition's game away from them & render their strengths useless. Refer to North Melbourne. Of course the better the team the harder it is to maintain for extended periods throughout a match, but it gets the job done against those teams we should beat. Richmond the only exception!

So this week we should beat Melbourne by 30 points plus if we are on!

 

[grimlock]

Centre square
v GWS

Quite a few things to note.

• Parker who was our leading centre square attendee before this game only participated in 8/27 centre bounces. He definitely isn't 100% fit.
• Heeney started 5 of the first 6 bounces but sparingly used after that.
• Franklin started 5 of the first 6 bounces after half time, but had limited impact. Except for the very last bounce against the Crows, this was the first time in 2016 he went into the middle.
• Rose started the last bounce.
• K.Jack's bounce attendances continue to drop, spent a lot of time on the wing.

Player | v | Times
\ Kennedy || 21
\|Griffen|6
\|Coniglio|5
\|Hopper|4
\|Ward|4
\|Shiel|2
\ Hannebery || 13
\|Ward|5
\|Shiel|3
\|Coniglio|2
\|Griffen|2
\|Hopper|1
\ K.Jack || 11
\|Shiel|5
\|Coniglio|2
\|Griffen|2
\|Ward|2
\ Mitchell || 10
\|Ward|4
\|Griffen|2
\|Shiel|2
\|Coniglio|1
\|Hopper|1
\ Heeney || 8
\|Ward|3
\|Griffen|2
\|Hopper|1
\|Kelly|1
\|Shiel|1
\ Parker || 8
\|Coniglio|4
\|Shiel|2
\|Hopper|1
\|Kelly|1
\ Franklin || 5
\|Coniglio|3
\|Shiel|1
\|Ward|1
\ McGlynn || 4
\|Coniglio|1
\|Hopper|1
\|Shiel|1
\|Ward|1
\ Rose || 1
\|Hopper|1

Season to date

Player | Times
\Kennedy|248
\Parker|228
\Hannebery|158
\Mitchell|145
\Heeney|32
\Hewett|13
\McGlynn|13
\Franklin|6
\Cunningham|4
\Robinson|3
\McVeigh|1
\Rose|1

Rucks
v GWS
With Tippett going off injured late in the 2nd quarter, Sinclair shouldered the whole of the ruck load for the rest of the game.

Player|v|Times
\ Sinclair || 20
\|Mumford|15
\|Lobb|5
\ Tippett || 7
\|Mumford|6
\|Lobb|1

Season to date

Player | Times
\Tippett|248
\Sinclair|84
\Nankervis|4

Kick ins
v GWS

Player | Times
\Laidler|4
\Rampe|4
\Jones|3
\McVeigh|3
\Grundy|1

Season to date

Player | Times
\Laidler|46
\McVeigh|32
\Rampe|24
\Mills|19
\Jones|8
\Grundy|3
\Lloyd|1
\Rohan|1
\Smith|1

 

[grimlock]

Bulldogs preview

Midfield
Commentators on TV and radio alike have often referred to the Swans as a good contested ball team. They will drag out the Contested Possession statistic (Table 1) and smugly point out that the Swans are ranked #1 in this metric, fully backing their hypothesis. However, what they fail to point out is that the Swans also concede the most contested possessions in the AFL (Table 2) and hence all the CP stat is really showing is how contested our game style is and not really how good we are in this department.

Table 1: Average Contested Possessions For

Team | CP for | Rank
\ Sydney | 165.6 | 1st
\Adelaide|153.5|2nd
\ W. Bulldogs | 152.8 | 3rd
\Melbourne|151.7|4th
\Port Adelaide|147.8|5th
\GWS|147.1|6th
\N. Melbourne|145.1|7th
\Collingwood|144.0|eq. 8th
\Geelong|144.0|eq. 8th
\West Coast|142.8|10th
\Richmond|140.3|11th
\Fremantle|140.2|12th
\Hawthorn|137.6|13th
\Gold Coast|135.5|14th
\Brisbane|135.2|15th
\St Kilda|132.2|16th
\Essendon|131.7|17th
\Carlton|130.7|18th

Table 2: Average Contested Possessions Against

Team | CP against | Rank
\ W. Bulldogs | 129.3 | 1st
\Carlton|135.2|2nd
\Geelong|135.6|3rd
\GWS|137.6|4th
\Richmond|137.8|5th
\West Coast|140.8|6th
\Fremantle|141.3|7th
\St Kilda|142.2|8th
\Essendon|142.6|9th
\Collingwood|142.7|10th
\N. Melbourne|143.1|11th
\Gold Coast|145.8|12th
\Melbourne|146.5|13th
\Brisbane|146.9|14th
\Adelaide|149.4|15th
\Hawthorn|152.2|16th
\Port Adelaide|152.8|17th
\ Sydney | 155.5 | 18th

A better statistic would be the Contested Possession differential, and using this metric, we see that our opponents this week the Western Bulldogs are heads and shoulders clear of the rest of the competition, almost doubling the next best team - us! (see Table 3). So while the Swans are indeed elite in the AFL in the contested ball, they will be coming up against the best of the best in the Dogs. And despite not having what most pundits would consider an elite ruck division, and only having one player in the Top 40 clearance players in the AFL (Libba at #40) they also dominate in the clearance differential statistic with the whole team working together to form a cohesive clearance machine. (Table 4)

Or to use another stat to highlight the Bulldogs' dominance in the contested ball, we note that of the 13 matches this season, the Bulldogs have won the contested possession count in 12 of those games and finishing level with the Power in Round 12. The Swans on the other hand have won the contested possession stat in 8 of their 13 games - note that of the 5 games where we've lost the CP stat, 3 of those have finished as losses.

Table 3: Average Contested Possession Differential

Team | CP diff | Rank
\ W. Bulldogs | +23.5 | 1st
\ Sydney | +10.2 | 2nd
\GWS|+9.6|3rd
\Geelong|+8.4|4th
\Melbourne|+5.2|5th
\Adelaide|+4.1|6th
\Richmond|+2.5|7th
\West Coast|+2.1|8th
\N. Melbourne|+1.9|9th
\Collingwood|+1.3|10th
\Fremantle|-1.1|11th
\Carlton|-4.5|12th
\Port Adelaide|-5.0|13th
\St Kilda|-10.0|14th
\Gold Coast|-10.2|15th
\Essendon|-10.9|16th
\Brisbane|-11.7|17th
\Hawthorn|-14.6|18th

Table 4: Average Clearance Differential

Team | Clear. diff | Rank
\ W. Bulldogs | +8.0 | 1st
\GWS|+5.8|2nd
\Melbourne|+4.1|3rd
\Geelong|+3.8|4th
\Adelaide|+1.9|5th
\ Sydney | +1.8 | 6th
\Richmond|+1.3|7th
\Fremantle|+1.1|8th
\West Coast|+0.2|9th
\St Kilda|-1.2|10th
\N. Melbourne|-1.7|11th
\Collingwood|-2.0|12th
\Essendon|-2.2|13th
\Hawthorn|-2.7|14th
\Port Adelaide|-3.5|15th
\Gold Coast|-3.7|16th
\Carlton|-4.9|17th
\Brisbane|-5.9|18th

Defence
These two teams are two most miserly in the AFL, with the Swans ranked 1st and the Dogs 2nd in average goals conceded. However the way the defences achieve their respective high rankings are quite contrasting. The Bulldogs conceded the least number of Inside 50s in the AFL and are only average in preventing an opposition goal once an Inside 50 is conceded (Tables 5 and 6). The Swans are the complete opposite, proving exceptionally good at preventing an opposition goal once and Inside 50 is conceded but average in the number of Inside 50s conceded.

Table 5: Average Inside 50s conceded

Team | I50 against | Rank
\ W. Bulldogs | 44.2 | 1st
\Geelong|45.6|2nd
\Hawthorn|47.0|3rd
\West Coast|48.5|4th
\Fremantle|50.0|5th
\N. Melbourne|51.8|6th
\Melbourne|51.9|7th
\ Sydney | 52.2 | 8th
\Adelaide|52.3|9th
\GWS|52.6|10th
\Collingwood|53.1|11th
\Carlton|53.4|eq. 12th
\Richmond|53.4|eq. 12th
\Port Adelaide|54.5|14th
\St Kilda|55.4|15th
\Essendon|58.2|16th
\Brisbane|59.3|17th
\Gold Coast|60.5|18th

Table 6: Goal conceded per Inside 50 conceded (%) e.g. For every inside 50 Sydney concede, a goal eventuates from 18.58% of those inside 50s.

Team | Goal/I50 against(%) | Rank
\ Sydney | 18.58% | 1st
\GWS|21.57%|2nd
\N. Melbourne|22.48%|3rd
\West Coast|23.30%|4th
\Adelaide|23.82%|5th
\Port Adelaide|23.84%|6th
\Geelong|23.94%|7th
\ W. Bulldogs | 24.70% | 8th
\Carlton|25.22%|9th
\Melbourne|25.78%|10th
\Collingwood|26.09%|11th
\St Kilda|26.11%|12th
\Fremantle|26.14%|13th
\Hawthorn|26.44%|14th
\Gold Coast|27.10%|15th
\Essendon|27.38%|16th
\Richmond|27.52%|17th
\Brisbane|31.81%|18th

Attack
So we have seen that both sides have strong midfields, with the Bulldogs better in the contested ball, and strong defences, albeit achieved through different methods. How about the attack? Surely with forwards of the calibre of Lance "Buddy" Franklin and Jake "The Package" Stringer, these two teams would also rate highly in this category.

Sadly, the stats tell us no. In fact both teams are below average in their forward line efficiency and rely more on the weight of their inside 50 numbers (Sydney 1st and Dogs 7th) than through any slick ball movement to their highly regarded forwards.

Table 7: Goals scored per inside 50 (%)

Team|Goal/I50(%)|Rank
\Adelaide|28.90%|1st
\GWS|28.32%|2nd
\West Coast|27.72%|3rd
\Melbourne|26.90%|4th
\N. Melbourne|26.64%|5th
\Hawthorn|26.50%|6th
\Richmond|26.44%|7th
\Geelong|26.13%|8th
\Port Adelaide|25.34%|9th
\St Kilda|25.23%|10th
\Gold Coast|25.17%|11th
\ Sydney | 24.44% | 12th
\Brisbane|23.67%|13th
\Fremantle|23.53%|14th
\Collingwood|23.32%|15th
\ W. Bulldogs | 22.85% | 16th
\Carlton|21.65%|17th
\Essendon|18.61%|18th

Conclusion
Saturday afternoon should provide a tough, hard-fought, contested battle between two evenly matched sides. However do not expect a high scoring or free flowing game with neither side expected to break the 100 point barrier as their substandard attacks come up against league best defences.

 

[grimlock]

 

[TheMase]

Awesome work mate.

 

[grimlock]

Centre square
v Melbourne

The interesting change was that K.Jack didn't attend a centre bounce for the first time this year. Whether this was purely tactical or done to protect Jack who may have been playing sore is unknown.

With less goals and hence less centre bounces, the Swans were happy to go with Parker, Kennedy and Hannebery as their main unit with Mitchell lending support.

Player | v | Times
\ Parker || 18
\|Viney|5
\|Jones|3
\|Vince|3
\|Oliver|2
\|Tyson|2
\|vandenBerg|2
\|Bugg|1
\ Kennedy || 17
\|Jones|5
\|Viney|4
\|Vince|3
\|Bugg|1
\|Hogan|1
\|Trengove|1
\|Tyson|1
\|vandenBerg|1
\ Hannebery || 16
\|Viney|5
\|Bugg|4
\|Tyson|2
\|vandenBerg|2
\|Vince|2
\|Oliver|1
\ Mitchell || 7
\|vandenBerg|3
\|Viney|2
\|Jones|1
\|Tyson|1
\ Hewett || 1
\|Stretch|1
\ McGlynn || 1
\|Viney||1

Season to date

Player | Times
\Kennedy|265
\Parker|246
\Hannebery|174
\K.Jack|156
\Mitchell|152
\Heeney|32
\McGlynn|14
\Hewett|13
\Franklin|6
\Cunningham|4
\Robinson|3
\McVeigh|1
\Rose|1

Rucks
v Melbourne

Sinclair took the majority of centre bounces 17 v 3, but around the ground Nankervis took more of the throw ins and ball ups. 47 v 33

Player | v | Times
\ Sinclair || 17
\|Gawn|16
\|Dawes|1
\ Nankervis || 3
\|Gawn|3

Season to date

Player | Times
\Tippett|248
\Sinclair|101
\Nankervis|7

Kick ins
v Melbourne

With Laidler out, McVeigh became the main option, although it was nice to see Grundy take one in his 200th game.

Player | Times
\McVeigh|5
\Grundy|1
\Jones|1

Season to date

Player | Times
\Laidler|46
\McVeigh|37
\Rampe|24
\Mills|19
\Jones|9
\Grundy|4
\Lloyd|1
\Rohan|1
\Smith|1

 

[GotTheGoodes]

You are a legend grimlock. Thanks as always.

Really surprised me the contested & clearance differentials re: Doggies.

A team focus, where they don't have "elite" clearance players but ARE the elite clearance team. IMO, the perfect function of a team. No individual for oppositions to "shut down" as such. If you stop one, the structure will mean someone else steps up & takes over... Almost impossible to stop.

Going to be a great game I reckon.

 

[momentbymoment]

Spot on, we've played like this for years. I guess when you adopt that style of play you have to make the most of your scoring chances when you get them otherwise your efforts in restricting the opposition are in vain if you can't score yourself. Forward line has struggled in the last couple of weeks, partly due to the weather (vs GCS) and partly due to our midfield getting owned (v GWS). It will be a challenge to recapture the form we showed in the first third of the season, even more so without Tippett.

Also ...
Partly due to Heeney going AWOL.

 

[grimlock]

You are a legend grimlock. Thanks as always.

Really surprised me the contested & clearance differentials re: Doggies.

A team focus, where they don't have "elite" clearance players but ARE the elite clearance team. IMO, the perfect function of a team. No individual for oppositions to "shut down" as such. If you stop one, the structure will mean someone else steps up & takes over... Almost impossible to stop.

Going to be a great game I reckon.

Horse touched on this in his press conference

"We look at the opposition every week and this week is no different. They're an exciting team. Their contested ball numbers are absolutely through the roof, they are almost double everyone else at this point of the season," Longmire said. "That will certainly come under consideration as far as what team we pick."

and

"They swarm the contest in huge numbers and they rely upon winning the contest in an outnumber situation as much as their hardness. The combination of the two means they're so good at the ground ball," he said. "They're one of the most exciting teams in the competition and they're having a fantastic year, they're hard to score against and I'm sure we'll be in with a real battle."

So I wonder if Horse will man them up at the contest or will he be content with having a spare man in defence

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-se...against-western-bulldogs-20160628-gptwzg.html

 

[Kapanis]

Grimlock, do you have a stat for 3rd quarters won and lost and by how much by the swans over the past two years? Would make for interesting reading

 

[grimlock]

No I don't but it wouldn't be too much work working it out from here

http://afltables.com/afl/teams/swans/allgames.html

 

[Kapanis]

No I don't but it wouldn't be too much work working it out from here

http://afltables.com/afl/teams/swans/allgames.html

Thanks Grimlock

 

[grimlock]

Thanks Grimlock

I found this

 

[Kapanis]

I found this

That's this year Grimlock? Looks like we do very well in the third by those stats. I had a look at the stats in your other link over the last three years, in the games we lost in all but one we didn't win a third quarter.

 

[Kapanis]

I found this

Check out Geelong and Hawthorns last quarter percentage

 

[grimlock]

Yeah it's this year, it's slightly misleading though as they are counting quarters that were drawn as a 'half win'. e.g. Geelong have won 13 last quarters and drawn 1 but they're calculating the percentage as 13.5/14 = 96% instead of 13/14 = 92%

 

[Kapanis]

Yeah it's this year, it's slightly misleading though as they are counting quarters that were drawn as a 'half win'. e.g. Geelong have won 13 last quarters and drawn 1 but they're calculating the percentage as 13.5/14 = 96% instead of 13/14 = 92%

That's why your around, to point out the real numbers. Your insight and input is greatly appreciated Grimlock, it's awesome.

 

[grimlock]

With Paddy (and friends), Geelong are even more dangerous on field

A lot has been written about Dangerfield's move from the Crows to the Cats, but let's try to objectively quantify his impact. Geelong, despite their status as one of the dominant clubs in recent years, have actually been one of the league's worst performing clearance sides. It's their ability to win the ball in their defensive 50 and move the ball cleanly from D50 to F50 that has been their hallmark of the game.

However with the addition of Dangerfield, the Cats have moved from dead last in 2015 into the Top 3 in 2016 in the clearances category. Table 1 illustrates the big improvement from 2015 to 2016

Table 1: Avg clearances differential 2015 and 2016

Team | 2015 Clear. diff. | 2015 Rank | 2016 Clear. diff. | 2016 Rank
\W. Bulldogs|-0.2|9th|+8.1|1st
\GWS|-3.5|17th|+5.8|2nd
\ Geelong | -5.3 | 18th | +3.8 | 3rd
\Melbourne|-3.0|14th|+3.7|4th
\Adelaide|+3.7|3rd|+1.9|5th
\Fremantle|+7.2|1st|+1.1|6th
\ Sydney | +1.0 | 7th | +1.0 | 7th
\Richmond|-0.8|11th|-0.1|8th
\West Coast|+1.6|6th|-0.3|9th
\St Kilda|-3.2|16th|-0.9|10th
\Essendon|-3.0|15th|-1.6|11th
\N. Melbourne|+1.9|5th|-1.7|12th
\Port Adelaide|-2.1|13th|-1.9|13th
\Collingwood|+1.0|14th|-2.1|14th
\Hawthorn|+5.1|2nd|-2.7|15th
\Gold Coast|-2.1|12th|-3.6|16th
\Carlton|+2.5|4th|-4.3|17th
\Brisbane|-0.6|10th|-5.9|18th

Dangerfield wasn't the only big name recruit for the Cats in 2016. Lachie Henderson was recruited from the Blues to revitalise an aging backline and the Cats have improved their defensive stats as a result. Table 2 shows the Cats have reduced their average number of inside 50s conceded by 9.3%, in a year where attacking football has come to the fore and across the league the number of inside 50s has increased by 3.8%

Table 2: Average Inside 50s conceded 2015 and 2016

Team | I50 conc. 2015 | 2015 Rank | I50 conc. 2016 | 2016 Rank
\W. Bulldogs|49.6|7th|44.9|1st
\ Geelong | 50.3 | 8th | 45.6 | 2nd
\Hawthorn|43.8|3rd|47.0|3rd
\West Coast|43.2|2nd|47.7|4th
\Fremantle|42.9|1st|50.0|5th
\N. Melbourne|51.9|12th|51.8|6th
\Adelaide|50.9|9th|52.0|eq. 7th
\Melbourne|53.4|14th|52.0|eq. 7th
\Collingwood|49.1|6th|52.4|eq. 9th
\ Sydney | 48.4 | 5th | 52.4 | eq. 9th
\Carlton|55.6|17th|52.5|11th
\GWS|51.6|11th|52.6|12th
\Port Adelaide|51.5|10th|54.3|13th
\Richmond|46.7|4th|54.4|14th
\St Kilda|52.6|13th|55.8|15th
\Essendon|55.1|16th|57.7|16th
\Brisbane|54.0|15th|59.3|17th
\Gold Coast|57.7|18th|60.6|18th

Lastly, the 3rd mature recruit was Zac Smith from the Suns. While I feel that his impact has been overstated by the commentators, he has no doubt contributed to the improved clearance numbers shown in Table 1, and this is backed up by the improvement in the hitout numbers in Table 3.

Table 3: Average hitout differential 2015 and 2016

Team | 2015 HO diff. | 2015 Rank | 2016 HO diff. | 2016 Rank
\West Coast|+14.0|2nd|+16.9|1st
\Melbourne|+0.4|8th|+11.7|2nd
\Richmond|-3.2|12th|+8.9|3rd
\N. Melbourne|+11.5|3rd|+5.7|4th
\ Geelong | -13.9 | 18th | +3.4 | 5th
\GWS|-7.5|14th|+2.6|6th
\Carlton|-4.9|13th|+2.4|7th
\Essendon|-10.5|15th|+0.7|8th
\ Sydney | +3.5 | 6th | -0.4 | 9th
\Brisbane|-0.4|9th|-0.6|10th
\Fremantle|+28.4|1st|-0.7|11th
\St Kilda|-2.7|10th|-1.5|12th
\Hawthorn|+8.0|4th|-2.4|13th
\W. Bulldogs|-11.4|16th|-2.4|14th
\Collingwood|-3.1|11th|-3.5|15th
\Adelaide|+0.4|7th|-4.6|16th
\Gold Coast|-13.0|17th|-12.7|17th
\Port Adelaide|+3.6|5th|-23.5|18th

 

[grimlock]

Hawks buck the Contested Ball theory

One of the cliched adages that commentators like to spout from time to time is that if you beat your opponent in the contested ball, there is a very high chance that you will win the game. However, this season the current league leaders have thrown that theory out of the window as we can witness from Table 1.

Table 1: Contested Possession differential

Team | Contested Possession diff. | Rank
\W. Bulldogs|+19.9|1st
\ Sydney | +9.0 | 2nd
\GWS|+8.1|3rd
\Geelong|+7.5|4th
\Melbourne|+6.9|5th
\Adelaide|+5.2|6th
\N. Melbourne|+2.1|7th
\West Coast|+1.9|8th
\Collingwood|+1.5|eq. 9th
\Richmond|+1.5|eq. 9th
\Fremantle|-2.4|11th
\Port Adelaide|-2.6|12th
\Carlton|-6.0|13th
\St Kilda|-8.1|14th
\Essendon|-9.1|15th
\Gold Coast|-9.7|16th
\Brisbane|-11.5|17th
\ Hawthorn | -14.3 | 18th

We can see that 7 of the current Top 8 sides are ranked in the Top 8 for contested possession differential. The one anomaly is the Hawks, who are not only missing from the top half of this table, but are in fact dead last, behind cellar dwellars the Lions, the Suns and the Bombers. In fact the Hawks have only won the contested possession count in 2 of their 15 games this season. We can conclude that this statistic has little bearing on the Hawks' performance. But where do the Hawks make up for such a handicap?

The truth is unlike last season when the Hawks dominated many of the major statistical categories, the Hawks don't perform outstandingly well in any one category, but do reasonably well across many different categories. They are 5th in disposal efficiency, 3rd in goalkicking accuracy, 4th in goals per inside 50 and 4th in goals. They are also 1st in clangers against, meaning they cause the opposition to average the most clangers against when they come up against the Hawks.

So be prepared to see a clash of contrasting styles on Thursday night. The Swans will attempt to dominate the middle through their inside midfielders such as Kennedy, Mitchell, Jack and Parker while the Hawks will be hoping their outside runners in Hill, Smith, Hartung and Birchall can try and expose the Swans' perceived lack of speed through the middle.

 

[grimlock]

Sydney v Carlton preview: The Goalkicking Blues

If a Carlton fan was presented with the list of the Top 50 goalkickers in the AFL, they would recognise more than a few familiar names. Sitting on top of course is Josh Kennedy, their one time pick 4, with 55 goals. Scroll down a few places and they would see Eddie Betts, equal 4th on 44 goals, easily the leading small forward in 2016. Keep going down the list and finally at equal number 28 would be old favourite Jarrad Waite on 27 goals, a little further down the list than he should be because he has missed 3 games. At number equal number 42 would be another favourite of theirs, Jeff Garlett who has kicked a respectable 22 goals.

It is at this point that the fan starts to furrow his brow, he has looked at the Top 50 goalkickers and not spotted a current Carlton player on that list. He requests a bigger list encompassing the Top 100 and finally at equal number 61 he finds two Carlton players - a defensive forward in Matthew Wright and a midfielder in Bryce Gibbs. He sighs in disbelief and goes back to watching old videos of Sticks Kernahan, Diesel and Kouta.

Brendon Bolton has been rightly lauded for the impact he has had on the Carlton football club. For a team that many experts predicted would win 2-3 games in 2016, he has exceeded all expectations with his team currently sitting on 6 wins for the year. Most of that improvement has come at the defensive end, where the Blues have scaled back their average points conceded from an AFL low of 107 in 2015 to a more respectable 11th in 2016 with 90.5 points per game.

However, the Blues have actually regressed at the offensive end with a slight drop from an average of 69.1 points scored in 2015 to 67.2 in 2016. While they have climbed one spot in this ranking, the only team they have jumped are the undermanned Bombers.

Their misfiring forward line will come up against the league's best defence this weekend and it's hard to see where their goals will come from. Specialists forward like Levi Casboult, Jed Lamb and Liam Sumner are all averaging less than a goal a game, while the 2 players who are averaging more than a goal a game in Andrejs Everitt (1.36) and Liam Jones (1.60) are both out of favour and out of their side.

Table 1: Average goals for, 2015 and 2016

Team | 2015 goals | 2015 rank | 2016 goals | 2016 rank
\GWS|12.2|12th|16.4|1st
\Adelaide|14.7|3rd|16.3|2nd
\West Coast|15.5|2nd|15.3|eq 3rd
\Hawthorn|16.6|1st|14.6|4th
\Geelong|13.0|9th|14.3|5th
\Port Adelaide|13.5|6th|14.2|6th
\Melbourne|10.2|16th|14.1|7th
\ Sydney | 13.3 | 7th | 13.8 | 8th
\N. Melbourne|13.8|5th|13.8|9th
\St Kilda|11.0|13th|12.8|eq. 10th
\W. Bulldogs|14.1|4th|12.8|eq. 10th
\Richmond|12.7|10th|12.5|12th
\Gold Coast|10.7|14th|12.3|13th
\Collingwood|13.0|8th|12.1|14th
\Brisbane|10.2|17th|11.1|15th
\Fremantle|12.4|11th|10.8|16th
\ Carlton | 10.0 | 18th | 10.4 | 17th
\Essendon|10.3|15th|8.9|18th

What the Bolton has been able to improve at the Blues, in a style reminiscent of his Hawthorn mentor, is their ball usage and uncontested possessions. The Blues were 16th in uncontested possessions in 2015 but have jumped up to 6th in 2016 and as a result their disposal efficiency has skyrocketed from 13th in 2015 to 2nd this year, a sign that the Blues tend to play it safe and control the ball instead of kicking it to contested situations.

Table 2: Disposal efficiency (%) 2015-2016

Team | 2015 disp eff | 2015 rank | 2016 disp eff | 2016 rank
\St Kilda|73.31%|10th|75.08%|1st
\ Carlton | 72.36% | 13th | 74.75% | 2nd
\W. Bulldogs|73.48%|9th|74.73%|3rd
\Hawthorn|75.98%|1st|74.23%|4th
\Geelong|74.50%|2nd|74.14%|5th
\Essendon|73.69%|5th|74.08%|6th
\Richmond|73.16%|11th|73.98%|7th
\GWS|73.72%|4th|73.64%|8th
\Collingwood|71.81%|16th|73.47%|9th
\West Coast|73.55%|10th|73.40%|10th
\N. Melbourne|73.58%|6th|73.33%|11th
\Fremantle|74.28%|3rd|72.93%|12th
\Melbourne|72.42%|12th|72.92%|13th
\Adelaide|70.24%|17th|72.55%|14th
\Gold Coast|69.17%|18th|71.82%|15th
\Brisbane|72.15%|14th|71.58%|16th
\Port Adelaide|72.14%|15th|71.16%|17th
\ Sydney | 73.52% | 8th | 70.26% | 18th

 

[grimlock]

 

[grimlock]

This is a fantastic read

https://thearcfooty.com/2016/07/20/close-games-and-coin-tosses/

 

[RW]

Agree, thanks for sharing that Grim. I think deep down my rational self knew that, it just took my one eyed fan self a few days to catch up lol. It's a great application of stats in all honesty. I understand what concepts like R-squared and persistence mean in a statistical context from my studies so it's nice to see them applied to a different area.