The war against renewable energy

[SaintsSeptember]

And more renewables = more reliability….
How many times do you need to be explained about over sizing.

It’s been cloudy at my house all day and my battery is full…. It’s not magic… it’s mathematics.

Solar is so cheap you just build alot more than you need and match the storage to your usage.
Im making more rain than I need.

With no clouds I’d be produce 13-14kw right now… what’s unreliable about this?

View attachment 2478634

And houses don't use much elevtricity.

Care to make a model for a high rise block of apartments ?

 

[nut]

And houses don't use much elevtricity.

Care to make a model for a high rise block of apartments ?

Have you heard of solar farms?
My example is a demonstration on sizing…
Just turn the KW into Terrawatts or Gigawatts or to what ever scale you want…

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Have you heard of solar farms?
My example is a demonstration on sizing…
Just turn the KW into Terrawatts or Gigawatts or to what ever scale you want…

Which solar farms come with a useful size battery, the kind of battery that would let people do what you are doing with your home installation.?

 

[nut]

Which solar farms come with a useful size battery, the kind of battery that would let people do what you are doing with your home installation.?

The batteries are coming online everyday….
The difference is I don’t need wind or hydro or gas as back up.
The grid will have a mix.

It’s a transition…. Its happening and the maths makes sense.



Breakdown of Australia's battery storage

• Total capacity: Exceeds 6.5 GWh or 6,591.5 MWh as of September 2025.
• Home batteries: Over 250,000 systems installed, with a total capacity of 2770 MWh.
• Commercial and industrial (C&I) batteries: 593 MWh installed.
• Grid-scale batteries: 2,603 MWh installed at sites over 10 MWh.
• Total installations since 2015:5,966 MWh across all scales.

Growth and future outlook

• Rapid growth: The overall storage capacity has more than doubled in the last three years.
• Projected need: The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecasts that Australia will need at least 22 GW of storage by 2030 and 49 GW by 2050 to reach net zero.
• Future projects: Australia has a substantial pipeline of new projects, with a significant increase expected in grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) in the coming years.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

The batteries are coming online everyday….
The difference is I don’t need wind or hydro or gas as back up.
The grid will have a mix.

It’s a transition…. Its happening and the maths makes sense.



Breakdown of Australia's battery storage

• Total capacity: Exceeds 6.5 GWh or 6,591.5 MWh as of September 2025.
• Home batteries: Over 250,000 systems installed, with a total capacity of 2770 MWh.
• Commercial and industrial (C&I) batteries: 593 MWh installed.
• Grid-scale batteries: 2,603 MWh installed at sites over 10 MWh.
• Total installations since 2015:5,966 MWh across all scales.

Growth and future outlook

• Rapid growth: The overall storage capacity has more than doubled in the last three years.
• Projected need: The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecasts that Australia will need at least 22 GW of storage by 2030 and 49 GW by 2050 to reach net zero.
• Future projects: Australia has a substantial pipeline of new projects, with a significant increase expected in grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) in the coming years.

Not quite right.

By 2050, we will need batteries / storage to deliver 49GW of instantaneous power and have storage of 646GWh. So we're 1% of the way there.

 

[Seeds]

Not quite right.

By 2050, we will need batteries to deliver 49GW of instantaneous power and have storage of 646GWh. So we're 1% of the way there.

No we dont. My modelling suggests we need batteries discharging about 20 percent of total power demand on average, +-10 percent depending on the makeup of the rest of the grid.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

No we dont. My modelling suggests we need batteries discharging about 20 percent of total power demand on average, +-10 percent depending on the makeup of the rest of the grid.

Right now, fossil fuel is providing 55% of the grid electricity. So you have to replace the 14GW that coal is producing. Snowy 2.0 will give you 2.2. Batteries need to provide the rest, that's 12GW out of 26GW - that's already 46%.

By the way, the 646GWh is from AEMO's own report.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Which solar farms come with a useful size battery, the kind of battery that would let people do what you are doing with your home installation.?

With electrification, we might be using 350TWh annually. That's nearly 1TWh per day, or 40GW in each 24 hour period of a day. That's quite a bit of usable storage needed. While Snowy say they have 350GWH storage, it can only provide 2.2GW per hour.

 

[Seeds]

Right now, fossil fuel is providing 55% of the grid electricity. So you have to replace the 14GW that coal is producing. Snowy 2.0 will give you 2.2. Batteries need to provide the rest, that's 12GW out of 26GW - that's already 46%.

By the way, the 646GWh is from AEMO's own report.

Aemo predicts 49 gw of storage. A 49 gw to 646 gwh hour ratio is an average of 15 hours of storage. Thats not batteries. Batteries only do up to 4hrs. 8hrs if you stack two of them (which is quite expensive). They must be assuming most storage is not batteries. Guessing pumped hydro is a big part of that but probably other yet to be commecial ldes tech.

Batteries are really only suitable for day to day fluctuations in power demand. For back up seasonal issues we will need gas peakers (hopefully with ccs), hydrogen. I.e. techs with low capex costs but high opex costs. In an average year this reserve requirement will contribute less then 1 percent of power to the grid.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Aemo predicts 49 gw of storage. A 49 gw to 646 gwh hour ratio is an average of 15 hours of storage. Thats not batteries. Batteries only do up to 4hrs. 8hrs if you stack two of them (which is quite expensive). They must be assuming most storage is not batteries. Guessing pumped hydro is a big part of that but probably other yet to be commecial ldes tech.

Batteries are really only suitable for day to day fluctuations in power demand. For back up seasonal issues we will need gas peakers (hopefully with ccs), hydrogen. I.e. techs with low capex costs but high opex costs. In an average year this reserve requirement will contribute less then 1 percent of power to the grid.

For Gas Peakers , we need gas. I'm thinking there is a reason the Victorian government is bribing home owners to get rid of gas appliances. Its a bit of a travesty. Gas CO2/Kwh has potential to be way less than coal. Even the old DC9 jet engines they still use are better than coal.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Aemo predicts 49 gw of storage. A 49 gw to 646 gwh hour ratio is an average of 15 hours of storage. Thats not batteries. Batteries only do up to 4hrs. 8hrs if you stack two of them (which is quite expensive). They must be assuming most storage is not batteries. Guessing pumped hydro is a big part of that but probably other yet to be commecial ldes tech.

Batteries are really only suitable for day to day fluctuations in power demand. For back up seasonal issues we will need gas peakers (hopefully with ccs), hydrogen. I.e. techs with low capex costs but high opex costs. In an average year this reserve requirement will contribute less then 1 percent of power to the grid.

According to AEMO, 49GW/646GWh of dispatchable energy storage will be needed by 2050, along with 15GW of flexible gas generation.

By 2043, AEMO predict nearly 200PJ / annum of gas used for electricity. I think 200PJ equates to 55TWh per year just for gas produced electricity. If that's right, and total demand is expected to be around 350TWh, that's going to be 15% of demand met by gas. I guess that explains why AEMO say we need 15GW of gas.

 

[dockerfemme]

This might be of interest to those taking part in the discussion of reliability of wind and solar https://wattclarity.com.au/articles/2025/02/27feb-is-vre-forecastable-part01/

 

[Festerz]

The real reason the Coalition are pushing to keep coal powered generation as part of the Australian electricity network is because their mates and backers in the resource industry can see the global demand for their product ins under severe threat.

 

[nut]

The real reason the Coalition are pushing to keep coal powered generation as part of the Australian electricity network is because their mates and backers in the resource industry can see the global demand for their product ins under severe threat.

China has also reached peak coal and its consumption will fall off the cliff, and they’ve probably got a stock pile sitting their too.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

The real reason the Coalition are pushing to keep coal powered generation as part of the Australian electricity network is because their mates and backers in the resource industry can see the global demand for their product ins under severe threat.

I would have thought the bigger story was Korea's demand for coal dropped from 12 million tonnes in 2021 to 3 million tonnes in 2024. Going from 3 million tones to zero over the next 16 years is a bit of a nothing story.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The real reason the Coalition are pushing to keep coal powered generation as part of the Australian electricity network is because their mates and backers in the resource industry can see the global demand for their product ins under severe threat.

Perhaps part of the reason, but the brown coal ( Lignite ) used in Victorian power stations has never been an exportable commodity.

Is Victoria really facing a gas shortfall?

Victoria produces more gas than it uses, so how is the state on the verge of a gas shortfall?

www.abc.net.au

Victoria is avoiding gas like the plague for electricity generation purposes. Despite it being far better for the environment than lignite.
NSW seems to take a similar policy, obviously most important factor is cost.

Over the last year. ( From Aemo ). Electricity generation has used.

NSW 68% black coal. ( around 1kg CO2e/kwh ). 3% gas . ( 0.4 -0.6 kg CO2e/kwh depending on technology ).
QLD 72% black coal . 7% gas.
Vic 61% brown coal. ( around 1.14 Kg CO2e/kwh ) 3% gas.
S.A. 28% gas.
Tas 2% gas.

W.A. is an educated guess ( can't find the figures off hand ) around 25% coal or less, 50% gas.
That doesn't include mines and remote communities that probably use a significant amount of Diesel.

 

[dockerfemme]

Perhaps part of the reason, but the brown coal ( Lignite ) used in Victorian power stations has never been an exportable commodity.

Is Victoria really facing a gas shortfall?

Victoria produces more gas than it uses, so how is the state on the verge of a gas shortfall?

www.abc.net.au

Victoria is avoiding gas like the plague for electricity generation purposes. Despite it being far better for the environment than lignite.
NSW seems to take a similar policy, obviously most important factor is cost.

Over the last year. ( From Aemo ). Electricity generation has used.

NSW 68% black coal. ( around 1kg CO2e/kwh ). 3% gas . ( 0.4 -0.6 kg CO2e/kwh depending on technology ).
QLD 72% black coal . 7% gas.
Vic 61% brown coal. ( around 1.14 Kg CO2e/kwh ) 3% gas.
S.A. 28% gas.
Tas 2% gas.

W.A. is an educated guess ( can't find the figures off hand ) around 25% coal or less, 50% gas.
That doesn't include mines and remote communities that probably use a significant amount of Diesel.

The WA electricity generation on the SWIS has been close to 30% coal, 30% gas and 40% wind and solar over the last 12 months.

This is the place to go for the numbers https://explore.openelectricity.org...&view=discrete-time&group=Coal/Gas/Renewables

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Perhaps part of the reason, but the brown coal ( Lignite ) used in Victorian power stations has never been an exportable commodity.

Is Victoria really facing a gas shortfall?

Victoria produces more gas than it uses, so how is the state on the verge of a gas shortfall?

www.abc.net.au

Victoria is avoiding gas like the plague for electricity generation purposes. Despite it being far better for the environment than lignite.
NSW seems to take a similar policy, obviously most important factor is cost.

Over the last year. ( From Aemo ). Electricity generation has used.

NSW 68% black coal. ( around 1kg CO2e/kwh ). 3% gas . ( 0.4 -0.6 kg CO2e/kwh depending on technology ).
QLD 72% black coal . 7% gas.
Vic 61% brown coal. ( around 1.14 Kg CO2e/kwh ) 3% gas.
S.A. 28% gas.
Tas 2% gas.

W.A. is an educated guess ( can't find the figures off hand ) around 25% coal or less, 50% gas.
That doesn't include mines and remote communities that probably use a significant amount of Diesel.

Gas is going to be critical otherwise we're simply going to have days where we run out of electricity - especially in June and July.

 

[nut]

Wholesale prices falling … gas reliance dropping.

 

[kranky al]

<<<<Uncomfortable Truth: Solar panels from the 1980s refuse to die.

Panels installed between 1987 and 1993 still produce 80%+ of their original power. That’s 32 to 38 years and counting.

This isn’t modern manufacturing. These are 1980s panels enduring Swiss alpine conditions. Heat, cold, UV bombardment. Degrading at just 0.24% annually.

A University of Applied Sciences study tracked six systems across Switzerland. The degradation rate? Three times better than industry projections.

Meanwhile, we’re still debating whether solar is durable enough for institutional investment.

The usual objections:

• Panels need replacing every 20 years (killing ROI credibility)
• Degradation makes them worthless after warranty (blocking project finance)
• The waste tsunami is coming (fueling opposition)

Here’s where it gets interesting.

Modern panels degrade even slower. Around 0.5% annually. Premium manufacturers like Panasonic hit 0.3%. A 2025 installation could realistically produce meaningful power for 40 to 50 years.

France’s oldest grid-connected system from 1992? Still at 79.5% efficiency. Germany’s got panels from 1976 feeding the grid.

The solution to everyone’s panic about solar waste? The panels aren’t dying on schedule.

The industry projected 8 million metric tons of waste by 2030. But if degradation runs 3x slower than assumed, that timeline just shifted back a decade. Maybe two.

The real conversation maybe we should have?

We have entire projects built on the presumption of panels failing faster than they actually do. Financial models. All based on 25-year lifespans.

Utilities banking on distributed solar aging out? Could they get decades more usage.

CFOs who modeled 25-year returns?
Did their actual ROI just double.>>>>

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

<<<<Uncomfortable Truth: Solar panels from the 1980s refuse to die.

Panels installed between 1987 and 1993 still produce 80%+ of their original power. That’s 32 to 38 years and counting.

This isn’t modern manufacturing. These are 1980s panels enduring Swiss alpine conditions. Heat, cold, UV bombardment. Degrading at just 0.24% annually.

A University of Applied Sciences study tracked six systems across Switzerland. The degradation rate? Three times better than industry projections.

Meanwhile, we’re still debating whether solar is durable enough for institutional investment.

The usual objections:

• Panels need replacing every 20 years (killing ROI credibility)
• Degradation makes them worthless after warranty (blocking project finance)
• The waste tsunami is coming (fueling opposition)

Here’s where it gets interesting.

Modern panels degrade even slower. Around 0.5% annually. Premium manufacturers like Panasonic hit 0.3%. A 2025 installation could realistically produce meaningful power for 40 to 50 years.

France’s oldest grid-connected system from 1992? Still at 79.5% efficiency. Germany’s got panels from 1976 feeding the grid.

The solution to everyone’s panic about solar waste? The panels aren’t dying on schedule.

The industry projected 8 million metric tons of waste by 2030. But if degradation runs 3x slower than assumed, that timeline just shifted back a decade. Maybe two.

The real conversation maybe we should have?

We have entire projects built on the presumption of panels failing faster than they actually do. Financial models. All based on 25-year lifespans.

Utilities banking on distributed solar aging out? Could they get decades more usage.

CFOs who modeled 25-year returns?
Did their actual ROI just double.>>>>

I found a few stories related to this. Seems you forgot to copy and paste the following sections.

Modern photovoltaic systems often prioritise higher efficiencies and reduced costs, so use thinner and lower quality materials but the team behind the study highlights that this strategy may compromise their long-term reliability. ‘The bill of materials – everything that goes into a panel – has a great influence on performance, even when made by the same company

Modern modules are often designed with thinner, cheaper materials. That may drive down upfront prices, but it risks compromising longevity. For instance, in Gujarat, India, many solar installations from 2009–2013 have degraded severely, needing replacement after just 8–12 years, well below the standard 25-year expectation. Causes include micro-cracks, poor build quality, soldering defects, and inadequate maintenance

 

[nut]

I found a few stories related to this. Seems you forgot to copy and paste the following sections.

Modern photovoltaic systems often prioritise higher efficiencies and reduced costs, so use thinner and lower quality materials but the team behind the study highlights that this strategy may compromise their long-term reliability. ‘The bill of materials – everything that goes into a panel – has a great influence on performance, even when made by the same company

Modern modules are often designed with thinner, cheaper materials. That may drive down upfront prices, but it risks compromising longevity. For instance, in Gujarat, India, many solar installations from 2009–2013 have degraded severely, needing replacement after just 8–12 years, well below the standard 25-year expectation. Causes include micro-cracks, poor build quality, soldering defects, and inadequate maintenance

Most quality panels have 25 year structural warranty and 25 year performance warranty.
LONGi panels being just one ….

It doesn’t take much research to find extreme efficient and reliable solar panels.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Most quality panels have 25 year structural warranty and 25 year performance warranty.
LONGi panels being just one ….

It doesn’t take much research to find extreme efficient and reliable solar panels.

Yep, my panels have a 30 year performance warranty. BUT it comes with conditions so to me, the warranty is useless.

I presume you undertake the 6 monthly inspection and testing required under the warranty. I wonder how much it costs to get someone to do a a temperature and insulation test on every panel every 6 months...oh, and also to clean them 6 monthly. As specified under the warranty agreement.

 

[nut]

Yep, my panels have a 30 year performance warranty. BUT it comes with conditions so to me, the warranty is useless.

I presume you undertake the 6 monthly inspection and testing required under the warranty. I wonder how much it costs to get someone to do a a temperature and insulation test on every panel every 6 months...oh, and also to clean them 6 monthly. As specified under the warranty agreement.

…. Again it doesn’t take much research to find good quality Solar panels without those ridiculous conditions you mentioned… Also there is a thing called consumer rights in this country.
Most panels above a certain pitch are considered self cleaning.

 

[nut]

More pumped hydro in the mix…

Exciting times …

Pumped hydro: current projects in development across Australia

Following the procurement and contractual close of the Kidston Pumped Hydro Project and Snowy 2.0, multiple pumped hydro energy storage projects have been announced, and are in the early stages of planning and procurement.

www.allens.com.au