Opinion The won't/will make it thread

[Cezz The Catter]

Hoping for injuries to Geelong players - classy.

Flog is an appropriate term.

Its sad that a supporter can loose so much faith in the MC isnt it.

 

[crocsta]

Brown - Yes
Schroder - No... But he will play 50 games
Hartman - No
Cowan - No
Bews - Yes
Smedts - No... Expect to be a three club, 80 game player.
GHS - Yes
Murdoch - Yes
Kolod - Yes
Stringer - No
Lang - Yes
Bates - No
Hunt - Yes
Simpson - No - his body won't make 100 games
Walker - No
Burbury - No
Kersten - Yes
Thurlow - Yes
Hamling - Yes

I'm pretty happy with predictions so far although losing faith in Kersten, GHS and Murdoch. Brown is still technically alive

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Bates: No (gone end of this year)
Bews: yes (this one is 50/50 big year for him)
Buzza: no
Cockatoo: Yes (will be gifted games early ala varcoe but will be worth it)
Cornell: no
Cowan: no (see bates)
Cunico: no
Delaney: no
Gardner: no
Gregson: Yes
Hayball: no
GHS: yes (but not with us,traded this year or next and will do well at another club)
Kersten: yes
Kolo: Yes
Lang: Yes
Lucey: no
McCarthy: Yes
Menegola: Yes - may not be first 22 but will be very good depth and play 100 games which again is a win for a late pick.
Menzel: Yes (certain if the knees hold up)
Murdoch: Yes-will play at least 100 games before he is pushed out which for a late pick is a win
Parsons: No
Read: no
Ruggles: Yes
Smedts: No-will see out his contract to the end of 2017 and then go.
Thurlow: Yes
Vardy: Yes in the short term but no in the end,body is too brittle

 

[Cataholic]

Bates: No (gone end of this year)
Bews: yes (this one is 50/50 big year for him)
Buzza: no
Cockatoo: Yes (will be gifted games early ala varcoe but will be worth it)
Cornell: no
Cowan: no (see bates)
Cunico: no
Delaney: no
Gardner: no
Gregson: Yes
Hayball: no
GHS: yes (but not with us,traded this year or next and will do well at another club)
Kersten: yes
Kolo: Yes
Lang: Yes
Lucey: no
McCarthy: Yes
Menegola: Yes - may not be first 22 but will be very good depth and play 100 games which again is a win for a late pick.
Menzel: Yes (certain if the knees hold up)
Murdoch: Yes-will play at least 100 games before he is pushed out which for a late pick is a win
Parsons: No
Read: no
Ruggles: Yes
Smedts: No-will see out his contract to the end of 2017 and then go.
Thurlow: Yes
Vardy: Yes in the short term but no in the end,body is too brittle

Read this and thought 'wow, we'll have no-one left'

But when you look at it, you've nominated 26 players and only put a line through 12.

So roughly 70% will make it by your judgement. I guess that's on about par?

 

[The rabbi]

Gardner: no

What do you see as the problem/s with Gardner's game?
He has only played 1 VFL game and it is his first year.

I would have thought that Cunico would make a nice 1/2 back flanker. But having done the Harold Holt since the beginning of the year it gets harder to see him make it.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Read this and thought 'wow, we'll have no-one left'

But when you look at it, you've nominated 26 players and only put a line through 12.

So roughly 70% will make it by your judgement. I guess that's on about par?

10lana would be a better person to ask for stats than me but i inagine over a 5 year period most recruiters would have a third of their picks fail.

Also most of the guys i have 'no' are picked outside the top 40 or rookies and those late picks have a bigger fail rate.

Look at our excellent 1st rounders since 05:
05- varcoe at 15
06-selwood at 7
07-taylor at 17
08-brown at 15
09-menzel at 17
10-caddy at 7 (gc) smedts 15 and guthrie 23
11-no top 30 pick toook hamling at 32 and kersten 34
12-thurlow
13-lang
14-cockatoo
15-traded for danger

So out of that lot only brown and possibly smedts would fail and both have had significant injuries after being drafted.

So we have excelled at the top end of the draft while having few top 10 picks.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

What do you see as the problem/s with Gardner's game?
He has only played 1 VFL game and it is his first year.

I would have thought that Cunico would make a nice 1/2 back flanker. But having done the Harold Holt since the beginning of the year it gets harder to see him make it.

Guessing at this stage but i think menegola is the most likely of our guys from the last ND to make it.

I have my concerns as to whether gardner or cunico have the frames that will allow them to put on the weight and strength needed for them to make it in their chosen positions at afl level.

 

[Lana]

10lana would be a better person to ask for stats than me but i inagine over a 5 year period most recruiters would have a third of their picks fail.

Also most of the guys i have 'no' are picked outside the top 40 or rookies and those late picks have a bigger fail rate.

Look at our excellent 1st rounders since 05:
05- varcoe at 15
06-selwood at 7
07-taylor at 17
08-brown at 15
09-menzel at 17
10-caddy at 7 (gc) smedts 15 and guthrie 23
11-no top 30 pick toook hamling at 32 and kersten 34
12-thurlow
13-lang
14-cockatoo
15-traded for danger

So out of that lot only brown and possibly smedts would fail and both have had significant injuries after being drafted.

So we have excelled at the top end of the draft while having few top 10 picks.

I haven't organised it by club yet( probably something to do over the summer) but I'd say a third in the national draft would be understating it. It depends on how we count the fail rate. For example Cowan he is still on the list but he's played 5 games.

2011 draft 5th year, 4 de-listments

National
80 picks taken
40 are at the same club 50%
10 are at a new club 12.5%

Rookie
78 picks taken
16 are still at the same club 20.5%
6 are at a new club 7.7%

Total
158 picks taken
56 are still at the same club 35.4%
16 are at new clubs 10.1%

Again that is not a success rate, some of these players have played less than 10 games but are for whatever reason still on the list

 

[The rabbi]

Guessing at this stage but i think menegola is the most likely of our guys from the last ND to make it.

I have my concerns as to whether gardner or cunico have the frames that will allow them to put on the weight and strength needed for them to make it in their chosen positions at afl level.

The kid is a bee's dick short of 90 kgs.
I have no concerns that he will weigh in around the mid to late 90's after a couple of summers in the gym.
And Cunico has put on 6 kgs in the 12 months that he has been on the list.

 

[Turbocat]

Bates: No (gone end of this year)
Bews: yes (this one is 50/50 big year for him)
Buzza: no
Cockatoo: Yes (will be gifted games early ala varcoe but will be worth it)
Cornell: no
Cowan: no (see bates)
Cunico: no
Delaney: no
Gardner: no
Gregson: Yes
Hayball: no
GHS: yes (but not with us,traded this year or next and will do well at another club)
Kersten: yes
Kolo: Yes
Lang: Yes
Lucey: no
McCarthy: Yes
Menegola: Yes - may not be first 22 but will be very good depth and play 100 games which again is a win for a late pick.
Menzel: Yes (certain if the knees hold up)
Murdoch: Yes-will play at least 100 games before he is pushed out which for a late pick is a win
Parsons: No
Read: no
Ruggles: Yes
Smedts: No-will see out his contract to the end of 2017 and then go.
Thurlow: Yes
Vardy: Yes in the short term but no in the end,body is too brittle

So not many "Yes" players not already getting games.. do you see us having these "NO" kids for only two years and moving them on? Perhaps looking at FA , considering we have no early pick in 2016?

 

[catswhiskers]

So not many "Yes" players not already getting games.. do you see us having these "NO" kids for only two years and moving them on? Perhaps looking at FA , considering we have no early pick in 2016?

I can. its important to view as many late / rookie picks as possible this season and next where we have few early picks.
With retirements and delistings at the end of this year e.g. Bates, Read and at least one of this years rookies at the end of this year for example we get another 6 or so to look at.
Primary listers get two years but the same logic applies I reckon.
That way we get to find a greater number of goers eg Ruggles types, than if we spend too much time trying to coach out flaws.

 

[Pivo]

So not many "Yes" players not already getting games.. do you see us having these "NO" kids for only two years and moving them on? Perhaps looking at FA , considering we have no early pick in 2016?

Cunico did extend until the end of 2017.

While that doesn't mean the club won't consider trading him for the right price (or using him in a deal like happened with Gore) the extension suggests the club wants to have a bit of a look at him and is planning on throwing some development his way.

Read is in the same boat, extending until the end of 2017.

http://www.geelongcats.com.au/news/2015-07-31/three-young-cats-commit

Doesn't mean either will make it but the club certainly seems intent on giving them some time to.

I'm certainly on the opposite side of the coin to Pure_Ownage, I think Cunico has the attributes to 'make it' (although his mysterious disappearance is causing me a little angst - has anyone called Mulder and Scully yet?).

 

[Turbocat]

Cunico did extend until the end of 2017.

While that doesn't mean the club won't consider trading him for the right price (or using him in a deal like happened with Gore) the extension suggests the club wants to have a bit of a look at him and is planning on throwing some development his way.

Read is in the same boat, extending until the end of 2017.

http://www.geelongcats.com.au/news/2015-07-31/three-young-cats-commit

Doesn't mean either will make it but the club certainly seems intent on giving them some time to.

I'm certainly on the opposite side of the coin to Pure_Ownage, I think Cunico has the attributes to 'make it' (although his mysterious disappearance is causing me a little angst - has anyone called Mulder and Scully yet?).

I haven't even seen some of these kids live... Be a while before I can make any sort of guess I feel. Those who did , sounded quite positive on Hayball.

But the facts are that no matter how good your recruitment is a certain amount of churn must happen..either due to player not making it or moving elsewhere. We have around 6 older players on our list that are older than our age target... only Clark is not a regular..thats 5 spots that is definitive and coming..after that .. players will have to climb over the bodies of their fellow list mates to get in the side. We have 16 players 22 and younger...and we are compelled to add each year. No matter how good or bad players look to our eyes its just a fact that some will end up Browns and some will end up Schroders

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So not many "Yes" players not already getting games.. do you see us having these "NO" kids for only two years and moving them on? Perhaps looking at FA , considering we have no early pick in 2016?

Yes and no. We dont traditionally move on players that quick we give most more than 2 years.the last time we cut guys that quick was 09 and donohurle basically quit, scott simpson had the turning circle of a bus and not sure on mckenna.

That said in 09 we had a tight cap and a lot of guys under contract so we didnt have a lot of choice as to who to cut and circumstances could be similar now.most of our good players are under contract beyond 2017 so any of the recent draftees who arent getting senior games by then might be nervous.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The kid is a bee's dick short of 90 kgs.
I have no concerns that he will weigh in around the mid to late 90's after a couple of summers in the gym.
And Cunico has put on 6 kgs in the 12 months that he has been on the list.

I should have phrased myself better, rather than pure weight I was talking about body and core strength in the contest-Kolo for example is not much bigger than Gardner but he seems to be very strong and has a centre of gravity that doesn't get pushed off the ball, and was like that from year 1. Guthrie is similar for a midsize player.

I think the major challenge for both Gardner and Cunico is whether they can develop their bodes like that, you don't necessarily need that level of body strength as say a small forward, but as a tall or medium defender you do.

Cunico did extend until the end of 2017.

While that doesn't mean the club won't consider trading him for the right price (or using him in a deal like happened with Gore) the extension suggests the club wants to have a bit of a look at him and is planning on throwing some development his way.

Read is in the same boat, extending until the end of 2017.

http://www.geelongcats.com.au/news/2015-07-31/three-young-cats-commit

Doesn't mean either will make it but the club certainly seems intent on giving them some time to.

I'm certainly on the opposite side of the coin to Pure_Ownage, I think Cunico has the attributes to 'make it' (although his mysterious disappearance is causing me a little angst - has anyone called Mulder and Scully yet?).

Look I do rate Cunico all I am thinking is a can see a bit of a 'perfect storm' coming in 2017. I think we will have no older players to retire (I think all of Enright Lonners and Bartel will go at end 2016) and not a lot of players out of contract that year. We don't have a lot of guys OOC this year and the ones that do most will get more than a 1 year extension (for example Stanley). Only Clark Menzel McCarthy and Vardy might only get 1 year extensions until 2017 due to their durability issues. Most of our other key young players like Thurlow Guthrie Caddy Duncan Murdoch etc etc are already signed on past 2017. And we will have had no first rounders 2015 and 2016 (unless we trade back into the first round this year) so after 2 years of late ish picks we might want to have a greater involvement in 2017's draft as Wells tends to like to do that every few years. Excluding rookie listed players, and assuming Cowan goes at the end of this year (I don't think his body will hold up) the only guys likely to be OOC in 2017 are:
Motlop (FA)
Kolo
Cockatoo
Smedts
Bews
Cunico
Luxford
Kersten
Buzza
Hayball
Gardner
Menegola
Menzel/Clark/McCarthy/Vardy

The first three on that list are pretty safe and you would imagine as a mature age player Menegola will get a decent chance to establish himself, but unless any of the Menzel/Clark/McCarthy/Vardy are needing to be delisted for medical reasons by then, some of the others are going to get squeezed out.