Number37
Anyhow, have a Winfield 25.
- Oct 5, 2013
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The H&A draw isn't even, as it is.
Play each team twice, home and away, then your idea has merit.
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Opinion Time to change the finals structure
- Thread starter Shaq attack
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The H&A draw isn't even, as it is.
Play each team twice, home and away, then your idea has merit.
25% of Premiers coming from teams who did not win a QF, whatever way you express it, is the same ratio that occurred prior to the introduction of the pre-finals bye.
The reason I made an exception of 2020 is because it was exceptional. The 2 Grand Finalists despite losing their Qualifying Finals arrived at their Preliminary Finals having played the equivalent of a bit over 6 “full” quarters of football in the previous two weeks. So any fatigue factor caused by playing the extra match than your opponent is reduced, possibly eliminated altogether. Whatever, that finals series clearly wasn’t played under 2022 or 2016-19 conditions, so it doesn’t belong in the sample if you want to compare apples with apples.
Do you think the 2022 system disadvantages the top 4 teams? And if that was the case, why were clubs trying to finish inside the top 4? I mean, are you saying there is an advantage now to losing the Qualifying Final? That doesn’t seem to have been the case in 2017, 18, 19. And in 2016 when Bulldogs won from 7th, they were a much stronger than average 7th team as pointed out by doppleganger and to suggeast their gruelling finals schedule was some sort of advantage to them in winning the flag is I would say fanciful at best.
I'm curious to what that data is? I didn't see it.
Seeing that except for 2016 it has been a top 4 side to win the premiership I would have thought there isn't much of an impact. Personally I'm for it seeing that it gives all finalists a chance to put their best side on the park. The winner of the qualifying final even gets an extra break to get their players healthy for the Prelim final.
2020 wasnt a regular H&A season.
Shortened quarters.
Majority of teams hubbing in QLD.
Guess which teams still had home games?? Brisbane and Port.
They didnt earn positions 1 and 2 of H&A ladder as normally occurs.
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Of all the things to change about the AFL this is probably way down the list.
Get rid of the pre finals bye first, and make the fixture even (over two or three years). The fixture is such that having something like top 2 go straight to a prelim is fraught. I don't mind the idea if the fixture was even though.
Get rid of the pre finals bye first, and make the fixture even (over two or three years). The fixture is such that having something like top 2 go straight to a prelim is fraught. I don't mind the idea if the fixture was even though.
1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5. Knock out elimination. Highest ranking teams plays lowest ranking team.
Here’s the kicker - every game is best of 3 (first game top teams home, next game at lower teams home, then MCG if they really want).
Change the season to 17 rounds - play each team only once.
It would mean a lot more finals games. The finals series won’t wrap up as soon as they feel like they’re getting started. Would avoid teams being knocked out one bad game. Better rivalries. And of course, a lot more money.
Also stops this 4th getting a huge advantage over 5th when there could be very little between them (and double up games could have influenced).
Here’s the kicker - every game is best of 3 (first game top teams home, next game at lower teams home, then MCG if they really want).
Change the season to 17 rounds - play each team only once.
It would mean a lot more finals games. The finals series won’t wrap up as soon as they feel like they’re getting started. Would avoid teams being knocked out one bad game. Better rivalries. And of course, a lot more money.
Also stops this 4th getting a huge advantage over 5th when there could be very little between them (and double up games could have influenced).
I think his main point was that in 2 of the 5 seasons(or 40%) since the introduction of the pre-finals bye, neither of the QF winners made the GF. Whereas I think this may never have occurred prior to the introduction of the pre-finals bye?
What he conveniently didn’t mention was one of the two times this occurred was the exceptional season of 2020, where matches were only 80% of their normal length, ie 64 minutes versus 80 minutes in all other seasons.
What he also didn’t mention is that the other occurrence was caused by the exceptional situation of the best team in the finals, the Bulldogs, coming from 7th, and thus taking the second best team in the finals - GWS - narrowly in the Preliminary Final.
Apart from that it is way too small a data set to reach any firm conclusions, as we can see such a small data set can have results skewed majorly by exceptional seasons that are not likely to occur again too often if ever.
One thing to consider I think is rather than changing the finals series or the bye, consider changing the way teams are seeded at the start of the finals series. So perhaps the top 8 teams go through but their positions to start the finals are decided solely by performances v other top 8 teams during the regular season, or some variant of that. That way you are filtering out some of the biases caused by the uneven home and away fixtures, without prejudicing any previously meaningful home and away games.
So further to my post above. If you took your finals seedings by games v other top 8 teams during the regular season, then this years finals starting positions would be:
1. Geelong 6w 2l 75% win ratio
2. Swans 6w 2l 75% win ratio
3. Fremantle 4w 1d 3l 56% win ratio
4. Richmond 3w 1d 3l 50% win ratio
5. Melbourne 5w 6l 45% win ratio
6. Brisbane 3w 4l 43% win ratio
7. Collingwood 3w 5l 38% win ratio
8. Bulldogs 3w 7l 30% win ratio.
So you can see it shifts things a bit. But it would potentially make big home and away games a lot more meaningful. And it would reduce the mismatches that occur during the season to having much less meaning.
1. Geelong 6w 2l 75% win ratio
2. Swans 6w 2l 75% win ratio
3. Fremantle 4w 1d 3l 56% win ratio
4. Richmond 3w 1d 3l 50% win ratio
5. Melbourne 5w 6l 45% win ratio
6. Brisbane 3w 4l 43% win ratio
7. Collingwood 3w 5l 38% win ratio
8. Bulldogs 3w 7l 30% win ratio.
So you can see it shifts things a bit. But it would potentially make big home and away games a lot more meaningful. And it would reduce the mismatches that occur during the season to having much less meaning.
My_Username
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So next year, the first under your system Gold Coast makes the 8 and has played 9 games against other top 8 teams, with 7 of those games at home and 2 away.
Does that H/A ratio change anything under your system, or will it just bring about another thing for people to complain about?
People need to just accept that it's an imperfect system and stop stressing over it.
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- Jun 2, 2011
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There is a increased rate of qualify final winners losing preliminary finals.
I think it disadvantageous to the winners of QF1 and QF2. 1 game, in roughly 28 days cannot be ideal preparation. Clubs try to finish high as possible because it’s human nature. Clubs who can’t make finals still try and win, which hurts them at the draft table and the next years fixture. We know 13th is the best slot to finish.
- Jun 2, 2011
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Yet they won their qualifying finals?
- Apr 18, 2005
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Doesn’t work for Geelong
- Apr 18, 2005
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No but then what’s the point if it’s just a knockout?
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Fair question.
You have pointed out a vagary in my suggested system, and it no doubt exists. But you could do a lot mathematically to correct that by grading wins at different venues with different values if it was seen as a major problem.
Yeah, the punishment for losing in the first week was too severe.
We lost, from 2nd place, in Week 1 of the 1997 finals. Our reward for that? Away to fifth-placed Adelaide, IN ADELAIDE. (Yes, that was the Leigh Colbert Non Mark game).
My_Username
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If the system can't be worked out in their heads by a couple of blokes down the pub, 4 rounds in, it's not a good system.
- Apr 18, 2005
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No the old mcintyre top 8 changed as of 2000. Basically it was 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5. The two highest ranked winners went into a PF, the two lowest ranked losers were out. So you could have 1-4 all losing which would mean 3 & 4 were out and 5 & 6 went into a PF. Then you’d have something like 1 v 7 and 2 v 8 in a SF with the losers eliminated and the winners into the PF.
It was ok, I mean this system is a lot better, but it threw up some interesting results, like Adelaide winning from 5th in 98. I still think the current system is best. But the week off is rubbish.
- Apr 18, 2005
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But do you reckon you should get a home final if you lose week one?
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Lucky bigfooty wasn't around in 1997 when the 2nd placed Cats had to play a semi final in Adelaide in week 2
Yes. One bad week after twenty two great weeks >> one good week after twenty two ok weeks. Don't forget, by losing that first final, you're on the track to an away Prelim anyway.
The current finals system isn't broke. In fact, I'd argue it's pretty much perfect, except for the bye.
The reason is because, in order to win a flag, you usually have to beat the three best other teams in the competition (if all other games go according to ladder position). If Melbourne wins the flag this year, they'll have to do it (most likely) by beating Sydney (3), then Collingwood (4), then Geelong (1). If this was done under the McIntyre system, they'd have to beat Richmond (7), then probably Sydney and Geelong.
When for example QF winner Richmond beat QF loser Geelong in the 2019 PF, it was Richmond’s 3rd game within a 26 day window. If it worked out slightly differently then it would have been the 3rd game in a 30 odd day window. It didn’t stop Richmond smashing their way through finals in 2017-19. Nor did it stop too many top teams from having a fair chance under the old final 5 system, where it was regularly the case they had 1st and 3rd weeks of the finals off. For example Hawks won Premierships in 88-89, Blues won in 87, Essendon 85, Blues in 81 in that scenario. I am sure if you go back into the 1970’s you will find it continues in a similar vain.
Teams need to get their preparation right but that is the same no matter what system is used.
The two years, 2016 and 2020, that you are relying on to say there is an increased rate of QF final winners losing PF’s were extremely exceptional finals series for the reasons already given, in one of them the best team finished 7th, which is previously unknown, in the other there were shortened matches, also previously unknown.
Whether the finals system could be improved or not I am uncertain, but you are not likely to improve it by making radical moves based on such limited and unclear data, that is for sure.
- Apr 18, 2005
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The Eagles were absolutely shafted in the nineties. They had to play a lot of games in Melbourne. 1996 for example, finished 5th and lost to Adelaide in 4th, then had to play North who were 7th but won. Why would the lower ranked team get the home final?
My 8 week top 16 final series is best esp if you reduce the H&A season to a fairer 17 games
Nope, that was the same year that we (2nd) got shafted by having to play in Adelaide. Same week actually.
