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Opinion Time to change the finals structure

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I don’t mind that suggestion but it has 10 clubs twiddling their thumps for a long time. Do you see that as a problem?
In this exact and specific season, I have no issue with eliminating the bottom two clubs after sixteen weeks. I have the feeling that West Coast and Norf supporters would not have minded either
 

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That would introduce a very interesting dynamic. 😁. Imagine the furiously motivated 3rd team after being chosen by the top team. Would love to see that.

Yep it’s something they have done a bit in the Super League over in the UK. Works awesome
 
The Eagles were absolutely shafted in the nineties. They had to play a lot of games in Melbourne. 1996 for example, finished 5th and lost to Adelaide in 4th, then had to play North who were 7th but won. Why would the lower ranked team get the home final?
Because people still dont get that there was and still isnt such a thing as home finals.

The league decides where finals are played.

90s was when still needing to have a final each week at the G.

And that example re WC is pretty shit, 5th placed team lost...they became the lowest ranked team still in it (they were the lowest loser remaining in it from week1).
 
Talk to West Coast Eagles supporters about how they were shafted in the nineties by not being able to play games in Perth.
To be fair that was due to the MCG agreement that meant one final every week at the G. If that wasn't in place we wouldn't have got screwed over.

The biggest problem (IMO) with the old McIntyre system was that two games in the first week only mattered if the two potential opponents in the second round were from different states.

The second problem (IMO) although not really that big of a deal was finals needed to be played in order of 4 v 5, 3 v 6, 2 v 7, 1 v 8 so the four teams in the middle weren't sure they would definitely be in week two by the time they started playing.

They just need to get rid of the pre-finals bye. It was a massive overreaction to Ross Lyon and also from a business perspective it gives the NRL a massive free hit just as the season is coming into its climax.
 
Premiers have come from 7th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd under the current system and from 1st last year when there was a pre-Grand Final bye.

Grand Finalists have come from 7th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 3rd, 4th, 3rd. Last year WITHOUT the pre finals bye…5th, 1st.


So maybe the winners of the QF’s are not getting the advantage they were getting under the previous system, but even that is doubtful.

Premiers who did not win a QF occurred in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2015. So in 16 seasons under the current finals system before the pre-finals bye, 4 of the 16 premiers did not win a QF. And 3 of these occurrences were in the first 7 seasons of the system.

Since the pre-finals bye was introduced there have really only been 4 normal finals series played, 2016-19. Last year didn’t have the pre-finals bye and 2020 had shortened games. So of the 4 series played under the 2022 conditions, there was one Premier who did not win a Qualifying Final. The precise ratio of 1:4 that occurred under this finals system prior to the pre-finals bye being introduced.

To conclude that top 4 teams are being placed at some disadvantage with conviction from that limited and unclear data requires you to have started from a biased position imo.

The Premier I think has also been clearly the best performed team in the finals series in about 90% of seasons forever. In roughly 10% of cases it is less clear who the best performed team in the finals series has been. There is absolutely nothing that has occurred since 2016 that looks like upsetting that ratio.

I personally don’t like the idea of giving any team, top 2, 4, 6 a greater advantage than they currently have, especially given the home and away fixturing is by no means a level playing field in any given season.

What has been shown quite clearly under the current system is teams can not only win the flag by winning the Qualifying Final, they can smash it, as Richmond did in 2017 and 2019. I think Mince and others are just a bit spooked this season because the gap between 1st and 8th looks a lot smaller than it normally is. If a team is good enough to win 4 consecutive games against the best the competition can throw at them, then they would deserve to be Premier. History has shown that is very very difficult to do, with I think only Bulldogs 2016 and Adelaide 1997 ever achieving that in 50 years since the early 70’s.
Yeah, fantastic post MR.

The other thing is, had there not been a bye this past weekend, there's no doubt both Geelong and Richmond would've "managed" a large number of their more senior players, both teams having little to play for ladder-wise. That would again rear the ugly head that prompted the introduction of the bye in the first place (eg. Freo & North 2015), thus undermining the AFL's apparently precious relationship with the betting agencies.

People have short memories at times.
 
Because people still dont get that there was and still isnt such a thing as home finals.

The league decides where finals are played.

90s was when still needing to have a final each week at the G.

And that example re WC is pretty s**t, 5th placed team lost...they became the lowest ranked team still in it (they were the lowest loser remaining in it from week1).
Yeah ok, fair play
 

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I personally would like to see a structure of 1v8, 2v7, 3v6 & 4v5 to provide a greater advantage for the teams at the top. While this would be less finals games an ultimately less revenue, this could be covered by the introduction of a wild card round or something similar.

This was done before and was changed at the turn of the 21st century to the system we all know.
 
Yeah, fantastic post MR.

The other thing is, had there not been a bye this past weekend, there's no doubt both Geelong and Richmond would've "managed" a large number of their more senior players, both teams having little to play for ladder-wise. That would again rear the ugly head that prompted the introduction of the bye in the first place (eg. Freo & North 2015), thus undermining the AFL's apparently precious relationship with the betting agencies.

People have short memories at times.

This is it. The media seem reactive to the downside of any system whenever that downside becomes topical.

I think it is one of the best things about Australian Rules that the champion is decided by which team can produce in sudden death finals when the gun is pointed at their head. For the best teams the rest of the season is just preparation for that time. I don’t know why people would want to upset that balance by essentially elevating the importance of near meaningless home and away matches and skewing the contest in the biggest and most important matches further in favour of the teams who did better in those matches.

Best v best at their best, sudden death and no excuses, the closer you can get to that in a finals series, the better, imo. And all teams know long in advance when the finals will be played and get every chance to prepare for the finals series. I think the pre-finals bye is one of the best things the AFL have ever introduced. It is only early days for it too. The AFL will get better at programming things to keep people interested in the bye week, and teams will get better at coping with how to manage their way through the week off or two weeks off for teams winning QF’s.
 
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I prefer the current final 8 system as it is, even if the league goes up to 19 or 20 teams. It would be better to remove the bye but if the league does decide they want to keep the bye and also go to a final 10 then the following would potentially work as an alternative to wildcards.

You have all the finals being knockouts. The top 2 ranked teams get a week off to reward them in place of a double chance and then from then on it essentially rewards higher ranked teams by having them get easier opponents and home ground advantage in their knockout games. It also means an additional 3 more finals than we have under the current system. I've given an example below based on this year's finishing positions.

Week 1 – Qualifying Finals

1Geelong and 2Melbourne week off

  • 3Sydney v 10St Kilda
  • 4Collingwood v 9Carlton
  • 5Fremantle v 8Western Bulldogs
  • 6Brisbane v Richmond
Week 2 – Quarter Finals

  • 1Geelong v 2nd ranked loser
  • 2Melbourne v 1st ranked loser
  • 1st ranked winner v 4th ranked winner
  • 2nd ranked winner v 3rd ranked winner
Week 3 – Preliminary Finals

  • Winner game 5 v Winner game 8
  • Winner game 6 v Winner game 7
Week 4 – Grand Final

Winner game 9 v Winner game 10
 
I prefer the current final 8 system as it is, even if the league goes up to 19 or 20 teams. It would be better to remove the bye but if the league does decide they want to keep the bye and also go to a final 10 then the following would potentially work as an alternative to wildcards.

You have all the finals being knockouts. The top 2 ranked teams get a week off to reward them in place of a double chance and then from then on it essentially rewards higher ranked teams by having them get easier opponents and home ground advantage in their knockout games. It also means an additional 3 more finals than we have under the current system. I've given an example below based on this year's finishing positions.

Week 1 – Qualifying Finals

1Geelong and 2Melbourne week off

  • 3Sydney v 10St Kilda
  • 4Collingwood v 9Carlton
  • 5Fremantle v 8Western Bulldogs
  • 6Brisbane v Richmond
Week 2 – Quarter Finals

  • 1Geelong v 2nd ranked loser
  • 2Melbourne v 1st ranked loser
  • 1st ranked winner v 4th ranked winner
  • 2nd ranked winner v 3rd ranked winner
Week 3 – Preliminary Finals

  • Winner game 5 v Winner game 8
  • Winner game 6 v Winner game 7
Week 4 – Grand Final

Winner game 9 v Winner game 10

Can't fault that system, well maybe 3rd-6th might tank the final round, but it would be my tick for a final 10 if it came in.
 
That would again rear the ugly head that prompted the introduction of the bye in the first place (eg. Freo & North 2015), thus undermining the AFL's apparently precious relationship with the betting agencies.
Sadly this is the primary reason for the pre-finals bye. Such a shit relationship this is.
 
Premiers have come from 7th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd under the current system and from 1st last year when there was a pre-Grand Final bye.

Grand Finalists have come from 7th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 3rd, 4th, 3rd. Last year WITHOUT the pre finals bye…5th, 1st.


So maybe the winners of the QF’s are not getting the advantage they were getting under the previous system, but even that is doubtful.

Premiers who did not win a QF occurred in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2015. So in 16 seasons under the current finals system before the pre-finals bye, 4 of the 16 premiers did not win a QF. And 3 of these occurrences were in the first 7 seasons of the system.

Since the pre-finals bye was introduced there have really only been 4 normal finals series played, 2016-19. Last year didn’t have the pre-finals bye and 2020 had shortened games. So of the 4 series played under the 2022 conditions, there was one Premier who did not win a Qualifying Final. The precise ratio of 1:4 that occurred under this finals system prior to the pre-finals bye being introduced.

To conclude that top 4 teams are being placed at some disadvantage with conviction from that limited and unclear data requires you to have started from a biased position imo.

The Premier I think has also been clearly the best performed team in the finals series in about 90% of seasons forever. In roughly 10% of cases it is less clear who the best performed team in the finals series has been. There is absolutely nothing that has occurred since 2016 that looks like upsetting that ratio.

I personally don’t like the idea of giving any team, top 2, 4, 6 a greater advantage than they currently have, especially given the home and away fixturing is by no means a level playing field in any given season.

What has been shown quite clearly under the current system is teams can not only win the flag by winning the Qualifying Final, they can smash it, as Richmond did in 2017 and 2019. I think Mince and others are just a bit spooked this season because the gap between 1st and 8th looks a lot smaller than it normally is. If a team is good enough to win 4 consecutive games against the best the competition can throw at them, then they would deserve to be Premier. History has shown that is very very difficult to do, with I think only Bulldogs 2016 and Adelaide 1997 ever achieving that in 50 years since the early 70’s.

Excellent work.

Re. The bye - the 360 piece was laughable, saying that 40% of the time since the bye was introduced the winners of the QFs have both lost the PF compared to 0% before. Big number.

Well that’s five years data (2016-2020) so it’s 2 out of 5. Not a massive sample size but let’s see what they were.

First year was 2016, where one of the grand finalists was Sydney (who actually finished top but lost the QF) and the dogs (who won 15 games despite finishing seventh).

Second year was 2020 - COVID affected with hubs, shorter games etc and the QF winners were Port and Brisbane who hadn’t been disrupted as much. Beaten by Richmond and Geelong in the PFs, the other top four teams and arguably the better sides across the year anyway.

Whateley (and many others) aren’t a fan of the pre-finals bye. That’s fine, and they’ve probably got a point that it can level out the playing field a little. But last year it didn’t happen and one of the QF winners still lost in the PF while the other won theirs at a canter. I’m going to suggest that maybe the quality of the side and their preparation and commitment to the contest might have more to do with winning and losing big games than a week off pre-finals.

But as others have said, if there was a genuine disadvantage then top four teams would be putting in half-arsed efforts in the QF and then winning the next three. Don’t think we’ll see that happen intentionally any time soon.
 

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The Eagles were absolutely shafted in the nineties. They had to play a lot of games in Melbourne. 1996 for example, finished 5th and lost to Adelaide in 4th, then had to play North who were 7th but won. Why would the lower ranked team get the home final?
The eagles should have been eliminated if they finished 5th and lost.
How is losing when you finish 5th and staying in “shafted”?

Same as Adelaide 98. Finished 5th and got belted by 10 goals week 1 yet somehow stayed in and went on to win the flag.

Atrocious finals system.
Current system is the best.
 
My stab at how it could work

W1 - 5x6(A) 7x8(B) 3x4(C)
W2 - 2xWinner-B(D) Loser-CxWinner-A(E)
W3 - Winner-D x Winner-C (F)
W4 - 1 v Winner-F

Home & Away ladder Advantages:
1 - GF spot
2 - SF spot against lowest ranked team
3/4 - Double Chance
5/6 - Semi against lowest ranked top 4 team
7/8 -no benefits

People will no doubt say unfair draw! But I say, the table is still pretty reflective (eg a ladder based on on the first meetings of all teams this year would still see geelong on top). Sure luck might play a part, but the answer is luck will play a part, it always plays a massive part. If we take out of the equation there would always be an undefeated team each year and team with zero wins. Doesn't happen. Anyway the challenge for the number 1 team is to keep form.
Incidentally the old 1920's finals system (argus) was actually not too bad. The first place team was given the advantage of a single slip up not being fatal. Second place team was guaranteed at worst a prelim spot. Every weekend was a single match, I like that focus. The biggest issue and fatal flaw was that 'Grand Final' was not necessarily final if the top spot team hadn't spent it's 'slip-up get-out-of-jail-free card'. Could never work now
 
The Eagles were absolutely shafted in the nineties. They had to play a lot of games in Melbourne. 1996 for example, finished 5th and lost to Adelaide in 4th, then had to play North who were 7th but won. Why would the lower ranked team get the home final?
Actually, in '96 we were shafted by winning our first game against Carlton and then being rewarded with an away game against Essendon, who had lost their first final AND finished lower on the ladder. This was because Brisbane were higher on the ladder and therefore got the non-MCG game after beating Essendon. I remember being rather annoyed at the time, and even moreso when something similar happened in '99.
 
Also after week 1 of the finals the opposition gets to pick your teams best 3 players to play for them, and you get to pick their best 3 players to play for you.

I also think there needs to be 2 different games happening at the same time on the same field, so Sydney can play Melbourne and Carlton and Collingwood can play each other but both matches sort of ignore each other while playing, every so often a Sydney player accidentally bumping into a Collingwood player who is in the way or vise versa but everyone bouncing off and continuing.
 
Finals structure is absolutely fine, it's just the bye. It's unnecessary. If you want additional freshness in the back half of the season have two mid season byes. One after 8 rounds, one after 16. Problem solved.
The AFL doesn't like teams throwing games at the end of the season, and this is what will happen if there's no pre-finals bye. I mean, what makes you think that teams would stop doing it if they thought they'd get an advantage from it? I can live with the bye easier than a compromised last couple of rounds.
 
I prefer the current final 8 system as it is, even if the league goes up to 19 or 20 teams. It would be better to remove the bye but if the league does decide they want to keep the bye and also go to a final 10 then the following would potentially work as an alternative to wildcards.

You have all the finals being knockouts. The top 2 ranked teams get a week off to reward them in place of a double chance and then from then on it essentially rewards higher ranked teams by having them get easier opponents and home ground advantage in their knockout games. It also means an additional 3 more finals than we have under the current system. I've given an example below based on this year's finishing positions.

Week 1 – Qualifying Finals

1Geelong and 2Melbourne week off

  • 3Sydney v 10St Kilda
  • 4Collingwood v 9Carlton
  • 5Fremantle v 8Western Bulldogs
  • 6Brisbane v Richmond
Week 2 – Quarter Finals

  • 1Geelong v 2nd ranked loser
  • 2Melbourne v 1st ranked loser
  • 1st ranked winner v 4th ranked winner
  • 2nd ranked winner v 3rd ranked winner
Week 3 – Preliminary Finals

  • Winner game 5 v Winner game 8
  • Winner game 6 v Winner game 7
Week 4 – Grand Final

Winner game 9 v Winner game 10
Pretty much the old top 8 system with two extra teams. Not bad.
 

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Opinion Time to change the finals structure

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