Top 4/Top 8 thread

[mpal6]

Not a great situation for either Port or the Bulldogs actually as both clubs will be playing like it is a finals match, meaning they are going to get more banged up than whoever they will be playing in the finals the week after.

I think they will go hard anyway, Port has home final on the line and Dogs have top 4.
It'll be high intensity regardless of when they play.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Not a great situation for either Port or the Bulldogs actually as both clubs will be playing like it is a finals match, meaning they are going to get more banged up than whoever they will be playing in the finals the week after.

A high intensity game is probably a good thing heading into finals. Would rather that than what we got last night. I don't see how either team will be any more banged up, whatever that means (injuries??), than if they were playing any other team.

 

[CarnTheScray]

Not a great situation for either Port or the Bulldogs actually as both clubs will be playing like it is a finals match, meaning they are going to get more banged up than whoever they will be playing in the finals the week after.

Will be a training sim for Port. Team has lost belief and shat itself.

 

[GOTHELIONS16]

Especially since they were going to be unbeatable once Dunkley and Treloar came back

Well that's what they were saying anyway

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Especially when they were apparently immovable from the top four

 

[00Stinger]

Especially when they were apparently immovable from the top four [emoji19]

I was saying mid year that I didn't think the Bulldogs would finish in the top 4

Boy did the Doggies supporters come for me

It's going to be pretty funny if they fall out

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[maxiboy238]

Honestly if the dogs drop out of the top 4 it could be a wasted season
Unless they turn it on in finals
But I think it will be to hard to win outside top 4 this season

 

[Hoops]

If all games are equal the chance for each of the possible teams to make the eight (assuming no draws).

GWS - 75%
Essendon - 62.5%
West Coast - 37.5%
Fremantle - 25%

GWS & Essendon - 43.75%
GWS & West Coast - 18.75%
GWS & Fremantle - 12.5%
Essendon & West Coast - 12.5%
Essendon and Fremantle - 6.25%
West Coast and Fremantle - 6.25%

 

[GOTHELIONS16]

Lions will make the four now, surely!

I don’t see the dogs magically turning on a switch in 1 week against a form side. Likewise, the Eagles will have nothing to lose and I expect a good old goal kicking shootout early on but Lions will steamroll them on their way to a double chance.

The Lions are building nicely, Gardiner back in the team, Adams was in good form and slots straight back in. As does Robinson. Forward line firing with an even spread of goals (6 players heading for 30+) not reliant on any individual. Will be hard to score against, hard to stop, competition best at the moment for goals from centre clearances. Midfielders are all in good form, contributing well. Fullarton playing a good role up the ground. Ah Chee is playing well on the wing. Cockatoo could well be the x-factor in what is already a potent forward line. We look hungry again. Building momentum at the right time of year. Look out!

 

[Halftimehero]

Lions will make the four now, surely!

They need Port to win, if they do they will know how much they need to win by to jump the Dogs

 

[Duskfire]

Lions will make the four now, surely!

I don’t see the dogs magically turning on a switch in 1 week against a form side. Likewise, the Eagles will have nothing to lose and I expect a good old goal kicking shootout early on but Lions will steamroll them on their way to a double chance.

The Lions are building nicely, Gardiner back in the team, Adams was in good form and slots straight back in. As does Robinson. Forward line firing with an even spread of goals (6 players heading for 30+) not reliant on any individual. Will be hard to score against, hard to stop, competition best at the moment for goals from centre clearances. Midfielders are all in good form, contributing well. Fullarton playing a good role up the ground. Ah Chee is playing well on the wing. Cockatoo could well be the x-factor in what is already a potent forward line. We look hungry again. Building momentum at the right time of year. Look out!

While I really like Brisbane as a team and think they are a chance, I wouldn't get too carried away. They defeated Freo and Collingwood; hardly the barometers for success. They are in good form, but sometimes that form can be conflated by opponents. I still think away from the Gabba they will struggle to beat the likes of the Demons in Melbourne. They are the third team I want to win it though, so hopefully I am proven wrong.

 

[BangyBangy]

While I really like Brisbane as a team and think they are a chance, I wouldn't get too carried away. They defeated Freo and Collingwood; hardly the barometers for success. They are in good form, but sometimes that form can be conflated by opponents. I still think away from the Gabba they will struggle to beat the likes of the Demons in Melbourne. They are the third team I want to win it though, so hopefully I am proven wrong.

Pfft, Lions are undefeated at the MCG in 2021.

Edit: But there's about zero chance the AFL will be playing finals at an empty MCG.

 

[tandino]

If all games are equal the chance for each of the possible teams to make the eight (assuming no draws).

GWS - 75%
Essendon - 62.5%
West Coast - 37.5%
Fremantle - 25%

GWS & Essendon - 43.75%
GWS & West Coast - 18.75%
GWS & Fremantle - 12.5%
Essendon & West Coast - 12.5%
Essendon and Fremantle - 6.25%
West Coast and Fremantle - 6.25%

Richmond?

 

[Halftimehero]

Richmond?

They are done

 

[tandino]

They are done

Stranger things have not happened. But there is a chance.

 

[Halftimehero]

Stranger things have not happened. But there is a chance.

They’d have to beat Hawthorn by 25 goals

 

[tandino]

They’d have to beat Hawthorn by 25 goals

Collingwood can carry half that load. Twin 13 goal beltings will get them there.

Almost impossible. Almost.

 

[Angus Young]

I am going to feel bad for Dogs fans if they fall out of the top 4... it will be one of the biggest chokes ever.

But I think they turn up Friday night.

 

[Hoops]

Richmond?

I'm only rounding to two decimal places. So due to the chance being less than 0.005% it rounds down to 0% chance

 

[Duskfire]

Collingwood can carry half that load. Twin 13 goal beltings will get them there.

Almost impossible. Almost.

Its not impossible for Scarlett Johannson to fall madly for me either, but there is about just as much chance as there is of Richmond making finals.

 

[timokane]

top 7 set just 8th comes down to essendon and west coast

 

[Angus Young]

Bulldogs... my god

How much exactly do Brisbane have to win by to make top 4?

 

[Whiskers]

Bulldogs... my god

How much exactly do Brisbane have to win by to make top 4?

About 5 goals and I think they’ll go close to winning by 100. Unless of course they just cruise late.

 

[cactuscall]

top 7 set just 8th comes down to essendon and west coast

If you think WCE can win and take 8th (meaning one of GWS and Essendon lose) then surely you throw in where GWS or Essendon lose along with a WCE loss away to Brisbane and Freo take 8th by beating Saints.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think people have just built it up in their head that Bulldogs lose/Brisbane win = Brisbane top four. Again an example of just how few people understand a basic concept like percentage, which can prove so vital in the closing round.

The Lions still have a lot of work to do, simply winning doesn't guarantee them anything. A margin of around 20 points in a low scoring game gets them in range (i.e. a final score of 70-50) and 4-5 goals gets very close if there's a decent score on the board (assuming a winning score of 100 to Brisbane, West Coast would need to be kept to 73 or fewer points).

It will be funny when the Lions win, but not by enough and the Bulldogs supporters who thought their season was down the drain still finish fourth in spite of themselves. In fact, I think I'll predict that to happen.

 

[Ambrosia]

I think people have just built it up in their head that Bulldogs lose/Brisbane win = Brisbane top four. Again an example of just how few people understand a basic concept like percentage, which can prove so vital in the closing round.

The Lions still have a lot of work to do, simply winning doesn't guarantee them anything. A margin of around 20 points in a low scoring game gets them in range (i.e. a final score of 70-50) and 4-5 goals gets very close if there's a decent score on the board (assuming a winning score of 100 to Brisbane, West Coast would need to be kept to 73 or fewer points).

It will be funny when the Lions win, but not by enough and the Bulldogs supporters who thought their season was down the drain still finish fourth in spite of themselves. In fact, I think I'll predict that to happen.

Im pretty sure everyone understands this just can’t be bothered mentioning it plus there is an assumption that Brisbane are going to thrash the Eagles.