Top 4/Top 8 thread

[theyellowsash]

Bullsh1t! We have a very good run home and likely to start getting players back for the 2nd half of the season.

Getting to the mid point of the season at break even with the injuries we have is a massive win for us.

Still need to win probably 8 games to make it since our percentage will be rubbish, so we can only afford to drop 4 more games for the year. Away to wce and gws are guaranteed losses, and return games against Brisbane and geelong are 90% to lose. Meaning we have to go 8 from 8 the rest of the games and we always lose an unexpected game. On recent history the essendon, stkilda and collingwood games are 50/50, and freo in Perth is no walk in the park either, so drop one of those and we are done. And that's just to scrape into 8th.

If you actually look at it subjectively, and not just thinking we are generically the best and will beat everyone, it's not looking good. Hardwick himself said that we cant rely on being basically undefeated through the second half of the year and expect it to happen. At some point it wont and its looking likely this is the year.

 

[magpiemaniac44]

Still need to win probably 8 games to make it since our percentage will be rubbish, so we can only afford to drop 4 more games for the year. Away to wce and gws are guaranteed losses, and return games against Brisbane and geelong are 90% to lose. Meaning we have to go 8 from 8 the rest of the games and we always lose an unexpected game. On recent history the essendon, stkilda and collingwood games are 50/50, and freo in Perth is no walk in the park either, so drop one of those and we are done. And that's just to scrape into 8th.

If you actually look at it subjectively, and not just thinking we are generically the best and will beat everyone, it's not looking good. Hardwick himself said that we cant rely on being basically undefeated through the second half of the year and expect it to happen. At some point it wont and its looking likely this is the year.

11 wins will get you into the finals. Did a ladder predictor the other day and there was a 5 game gap between 8th and 9th

 

[ep2018]

If all the favourites win this week there will be 3 games and % between 7th and 9th. Richmond in 8th wont miss finals. Could be a nightmare for the AFL having the top 8 almost set this early in the season.

 

[Vaccination]

If all the favourites win this week there will be 3 games and % between 7th and 9th. Richmond in 8th wont miss finals. Could be a nightmare for the AFL having the top 8 almost set this early in the season.

Gives me 2016 vibes where there were 7 teams that were clearly better than everyone else (Although Sydney this year looks a lot better than North did at the end of 2016)

 

[theyellowsash]

11 wins will get you into the finals. Did a ladder predictor the other day and there was a 5 game gap between 8th and 9th

if we rely on that kind of absurd ladder then i have even less faith than before

 

[Toffee Lion]

If all the favourites win this week there will be 3 games and % between 7th and 9th. Richmond in 8th wont miss finals. Could be a nightmare for the AFL having the top 8 almost set this early in the season.

Isn't it usually set around this time?

 

[nineteen eighty]

Still need to win probably 8 games to make it since our percentage will be rubbish, so we can only afford to drop 4 more games for the year. Away to wce and gws are guaranteed losses, and return games against Brisbane and geelong are 90% to lose. Meaning we have to go 8 from 8 the rest of the games and we always lose an unexpected game. On recent history the essendon, stkilda and collingwood games are 50/50, and freo in Perth is no walk in the park either, so drop one of those and we are done. And that's just to scrape into 8th.

If you actually look at it subjectively, and not just thinking we are generically the best and will beat everyone, it's not looking good. Hardwick himself said that we cant rely on being basically undefeated through the second half of the year and expect it to happen. At some point it wont and its looking likely this is the year.

You're completely over estimating wins required this year to make the 8. No way in the world will 14 be required. More likely around 11.

I have no doubt if we make finals with a full list we are in it up to our eye balls.

As I've said every year though, its the form team going into September with no injuries that's best positioned. Lots of water to go under bridge.

 

[theyellowsash]

You're completely over estimating wins required this year to make the 8. No way in the world will 14 be required. More likely around 11.

I have no doubt if we make finals with a full list we are in it up to our eye balls.

As I've said every year though, its the form team going into September with no injuries that's best positioned. Lots of water to go under bridge.

5+8 is 13 and as I said that's only because of our percentage. 12 wins is the normal 8th place, but our percentage wont be good so we'll need a win in hand.

Not that it matters. Top 4 or no flag anyway

 

[Angus Young]

Not that it matters. Top 4 or no flag anyway

Disagree. A full strength Richmond are very capable of winning the flag from outside the 4.

 

[theyellowsash]

Disagree. A full strength Richmond are very capable of winning the flag from outside the 4.

People say that about 1-2 teams a year, its happened once. Dont see what makes us any different.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Disagree. A full strength Richmond are very capable of winning the flag from outside the 4.

Ah nope

 

[HTT]

Still need to win probably 8 games to make it since our percentage will be rubbish, so we can only afford to drop 4 more games for the year. Away to wce and gws are guaranteed losses, and return games against Brisbane and geelong are 90% to lose. Meaning we have to go 8 from 8 the rest of the games and we always lose an unexpected game. On recent history the essendon, stkilda and collingwood games are 50/50, and freo in Perth is no walk in the park either, so drop one of those and we are done. And that's just to scrape into 8th.

If you actually look at it subjectively, and not just thinking we are generically the best and will beat everyone, it's not looking good. Hardwick himself said that we cant rely on being basically undefeated through the second half of the year and expect it to happen. At some point it wont and its looking likely this is the year.

Our percentage is pretty much exactly 100%, which is exactly where it should be if you're 5-5. Everyone above us bar the Bulldogs are also on a reasonable percentage for the W/L. So if we end up on the same wins as any of those teams, our percentage should come back to about equal with them too.

 

[CasuallyDressed]

I don't really see the 8 changing by the end of the season.

Doggies, Brisbane, Geelong, Melbourne, Richmond, Port to battle out for the top 4.

West Coast and Sydney 7th and 8th.

Carlton miss finals again.

 

[nineteen eighty]

Disagree. A full strength Richmond are very capable of winning the flag from outside the 4.

I'm thinking the same way and I'm not a typical rose coloured glasses type supporter.

Our full strength team is still right up there. Our style of play still holds up. We just need to get the team back onto the park

Still early days. What plays out in August leading up to finals and then September will be key. The form teams going into September have won recent flags.

 

[The Inbetweener]

I'm thinking the same way and I'm not a typical rose coloured glasses type supporter.

Our full strength team is still right up there. Our style of play still holds up. We just need to get the team back onto the park

Still early days. What plays out in August leading up to finals and then September will be key. The form teams going into September have won recent flags.

Absolutely no team is going to want to play you guys in September at the G.

 

[nineteen eighty]

Absolutely no team is going to want to play you guys in September at the G.

Over the last 5 years, form teams going into finals ended up winning the flag.

Bulldogs in 16 were that team. Their last month was very good with an excellent percentage for the last month.

Tigers in 17 were that team. Almost replicated the Doggies from the year before by becoming the form team from August.

18 Tigers had gone off the boil by years end.

19 & 20 were timed perfectly.

This year is way too early to tell how it will play out. I reckon 6 teams have put their hand up as real contenders. Very open season though and injuries will be key (as always).

It may well be a team out of the 4 wins it this year. And that team may not be the Tiges.

 

[dean33]

Still need to win probably 8 games to make it since our percentage will be rubbish, so we can only afford to drop 4 more games for the year. Away to wce and gws are guaranteed losses, and return games against Brisbane and geelong are 90% to lose. Meaning we have to go 8 from 8 the rest of the games and we always lose an unexpected game. On recent history the essendon, stkilda and collingwood games are 50/50, and freo in Perth is no walk in the park either, so drop one of those and we are done. And that's just to scrape into 8th.

If you actually look at it subjectively, and not just thinking we are generically the best and will beat everyone, it's not looking good. Hardwick himself said that we cant rely on being basically undefeated through the second half of the year and expect it to happen. At some point it wont and its looking likely this is the year.

With a full team we will barely lose another game for the season. You’ll start to change your mind when we clean up west coast away after the bye.

 

[theyellowsash]

And there you go we are out of the 8

 

[catstorm]

If all the favourites win this week there will be 3 games and % between 7th and 9th. Richmond in 8th wont miss finals. Could be a nightmare for the AFL having the top 8 almost set this early in the season.

And there you go 2 upsets and now there is only 1 game between 6th and 10th, and Richmond now sit in 9th.

 

[Coolangatta]

Ah nope

I dunno, I see them struggling away against GWS and West Coast, but I think they can roll Port, Brissy, or Sydney away in finals, and any finals game involving Richmond at the G is winnable for them if their form and injuries are good. So it depends on the draw.

 

[dean33]

And there you go we are out of the 8

Don’t worry about the ladder in rd 10, best result for us is teams above us drop games. Swans, eagles possibly port, all good results for us.

 

[Dexter6]

Statistically speaking, the ladder won't change that much from here on in. Fox Footy just did a write up on based on ladder positions of Top 8 probabilities:

"With 10 rounds now complete, we have almost half of the season in the books, and it means we can start to write off some teams from the top eight mix.

Yes, there are always exceptions, but the overwhelming weight of history is against any team that sits 3-7 or worse. Since 1995, only eight per cent of 3-7 teams have gone on to play finals; no 2-8 team has ever made the top eight.

It’s also extremely difficult to play finals from 4-6; just 16 per cent of those teams have done it. That may surprise you - after all, you can look at the ladder and say any of the 4-6 teams are just one win outside of the eight.

But remember that you almost always need to win 12 games to play finals. So from 4-6, you need to go 8-4. And it’s bloody hard to go 8-4 - you need to be one of the best five or six teams over that period, at least, to do it.

So if you’re a fan of Carlton, Adelaide, St Kilda or Essendon, we’re sorry, but history is against you.

In the Saints’ case, their horrendous percentage of 72.6 basically gives them an extra loss to overcome, so they’re in extra trouble.

What about the other records? 5-5 starters have converted it into a finals appearance 45 per cent of the time; at 6-4, the rate jumps up to 74 per cent, at 7-3 it’s 89 per cent, and 8-2 it’s 96 per cent."

Personally, I believe Richmond makes the finals. Even if it's in that 6-8th position, their second half of the season should be easier than the first half. It's just a matter of which team comes out.

 

[Karim Abdul Yeo]

Well if the Eagles start to win a couple of away games then they are serious contenders with key personnel coming back. We are also playing Tigers, Dogs, and Melbourne at Home. The last round is going to be a cracker by the way. there is potential 8 pointers everywhere. Lions vs Eagles. Demons Vs Cats. Dogs vs Port.

Still a little early to put a line through the Tigers. To me, they are still the best team to win and they will beat Melbourne at MCG in the finals. Geelong are coming and I can't stand them, to be honest. being on top for too long with no ROI which is the ultimate price. Darkhorse has to be Brisbane for me. They look like they have talent, hunger and experience mix just right. It will be hard for Dogs and Melbourne to go from mid-tier to winning a flag in one season. Lot of things have to go their way but come finals it is a different game and I can see teams giving them trouble. I could be wrong. Interesting season. Love it.

 

[dean33]

Statistically speaking, the ladder won't change that much from here on in. Fox Footy just did a write up on based on ladder positions of Top 8 probabilities:

"With 10 rounds now complete, we have almost half of the season in the books, and it means we can start to write off some teams from the top eight mix.

Yes, there are always exceptions, but the overwhelming weight of history is against any team that sits 3-7 or worse. Since 1995, only eight per cent of 3-7 teams have gone on to play finals; no 2-8 team has ever made the top eight.

It’s also extremely difficult to play finals from 4-6; just 16 per cent of those teams have done it. That may surprise you - after all, you can look at the ladder and say any of the 4-6 teams are just one win outside of the eight.

But remember that you almost always need to win 12 games to play finals. So from 4-6, you need to go 8-4. And it’s bloody hard to go 8-4 - you need to be one of the best five or six teams over that period, at least, to do it.

So if you’re a fan of Carlton, Adelaide, St Kilda or Essendon, we’re sorry, but history is against you.

In the Saints’ case, their horrendous percentage of 72.6 basically gives them an extra loss to overcome, so they’re in extra trouble.

What about the other records? 5-5 starters have converted it into a finals appearance 45 per cent of the time; at 6-4, the rate jumps up to 74 per cent, at 7-3 it’s 89 per cent, and 8-2 it’s 96 per cent."

Personally, I believe Richmond makes the finals. Even if it's in that 6-8th position, their second half of the season should be easier than the first half. It's just a matter of which team comes out.

Geez going out on a limb with that prediction of the tigers sneaking into the 8....

 

[Papa G]

If Richmond dont get their shit together they could miss the 8.

I don't think they will, but looking at their draw, 4 more loses are possible. With GWS and possibly Freo pushing, it is permissible