top 4?

[WakeUpPies]

does anyone think collingwood can make the top 4 this year?

hope they don't stuff up vs carlton and kangers

 

[jimmy_clement#8]

Well, we should, but it's no certainty. If in round 22, we beat Carlton, West Coast beat Freo and Geelong beat Melbourne, then we are 4th going into round 22, and win against the Roos consolidates that, providing St Kilda dont win a game/both games by heaps, thus overtaking us by %. The situation looks likely, all we have to do is cover our own end and win both games. Really, the main threat that can stuff up top 4 for us, is ourselves.

 

[WakeUpPies]

our fate is in our hands, thats why i dont think we are gonna make it

 

[footynuts99]

our fate is in our hands, thats why i dont think we are gonna make it

Kinda. The Pies must win all their remaining games and hope that the Demons or the Dockers lose.

 

[browa02]

Dockers will lose next week against the Eagles. That a certainty.

You'd think Melbourne at best would lose at least 1 of their games against Adelaide and Geelong (both away)

Sydney will win both and will finish 3rd.

St.Kilda if they win both will be on the same points and it'll come down to percentage. We play 2 crap sides so we should end up with a much better percentage.

 

[sproulie]

everything comes down to % if we can win both games


here's a ladder prediction


Ladder Predictor
Remaining Games
Gnd Home Away Margin

Round 21
TD* WB St K 18 pts
SS Geel Melb 18 pts
YP Haw Kang 6 pts
MCG* Rich Ess 18 pts
TS* Syd Bris 18 pts
AAMI Port Adel 30 pts
MCG Coll Carl 30 pts
Sub WC Frem 18 pts

Round 22
TD* WB Ess 18 pts
MCG Rich WC 30 pts
AAMI Adel Melb 18 pts
Gabba* Bris St K 6 pts
Sub Frem Port 6 pts
SCG Syd Carl 30 pts
MCG Coll Kang 30 pts
TD Haw Geel 18 pts

Predicted Ladder
# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 West Coast 22 18 4 0 2247 1847 72 121.6
2 Adelaide 22 17 5 0 2322 1627 68 142.7
5 Sydney 22 14 8 0 2089 1722 56 121.3
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2280 1952 56 116.8
8 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2290 2088 56 109.6
4 Fremantle 22 14 8 0 2004 1966 56 101.9
3 Melbourne 22 13 9 0 2140 1929 52 110.9
7 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2012 1815 48 110.8

9 Geelong 22 12 10 0 2034 1957 48 103.9
10 Richmond 22 11 11 0 1914 2165 44 88.4
12 Bris Lions 22 8 14 0 1941 2240 32 86.6
13 Kangaroos 22 8 14 0 1835 2182 32 84.0
11 Port Adel 22 7 15 0 1926 2137 28 90.1
14 Hawthorn 22 7 15 0 1831 2244 28 81.5
15 Essendon 22 3 18 1 1965 2411 14 81.5
16 Carlton 22 3 18 1 1805 2353 14 76.7


other results have to go our way though

 

[WakeUpPies]

everything comes down to % if we can win both games


here's a ladder prediction


Ladder Predictor
Remaining Games
Gnd Home Away Margin

Round 21
TD* WB St K 18 pts
SS Geel Melb 18 pts
YP Haw Kang 6 pts
MCG* Rich Ess 18 pts
TS* Syd Bris 18 pts
AAMI Port Adel 30 pts
MCG Coll Carl 30 pts
Sub WC Frem 18 pts

Round 22
TD* WB Ess 18 pts
MCG Rich WC 30 pts
AAMI Adel Melb 18 pts
Gabba* Bris St K 6 pts
Sub Frem Port 6 pts
SCG Syd Carl 30 pts
MCG Coll Kang 30 pts
TD Haw Geel 18 pts

Predicted Ladder
# Team Pl W L D PF PA Pt Perc
1 West Coast 22 18 4 0 2247 1847 72 121.6
2 Adelaide 22 17 5 0 2322 1627 68 142.7
5 Sydney 22 14 8 0 2089 1722 56 121.3
6 Collingwood 22 14 8 0 2280 1952 56 116.8
8 W Bulldogs 22 14 8 0 2290 2088 56 109.6
4 Fremantle 22 14 8 0 2004 1966 56 101.9
3 Melbourne 22 13 9 0 2140 1929 52 110.9
7 St Kilda 22 12 10 0 2012 1815 48 110.8

9 Geelong 22 12 10 0 2034 1957 48 103.9
10 Richmond 22 11 11 0 1914 2165 44 88.4
12 Bris Lions 22 8 14 0 1941 2240 32 86.6
13 Kangaroos 22 8 14 0 1835 2182 32 84.0
11 Port Adel 22 7 15 0 1926 2137 28 90.1
14 Hawthorn 22 7 15 0 1831 2244 28 81.5
15 Essendon 22 3 18 1 1965 2411 14 81.5
16 Carlton 22 3 18 1 1805 2353 14 76.7


other results have to go our way though

lol i didn't get one bit of that

 

[CarnthePies]

We'll just have to win both matches by as much as we can and see how we go. I don't know how it's going to go down.

 

[sproulie]

lol i didn't get one bit of that

Hmmmmm!

Sorry mate, the teams that i tipped to win were meant to be in bold. i can see why that would make no sense at all

 

[FadeAway]

We need to smash carlton next week and get the % up!!!!! Then cruise and just do the job against the kangeroos!!!!!

 

[bren_gc]

We should win both games, i hope, and it will come down to other results. But I feel Freo have really hit their straps and may cause an upset next week. Which would really hurt our chances.

 

[DJ Black @ White Blood]

Dockers will lose next week against the Eagles. That a certainty.

You'd think Melbourne at best would lose at least 1 of their games against Adelaide and Geelong (both away)

Sydney will win both and will finish 3rd.

St.Kilda if they win both will be on the same points and it'll come down to percentage. We play 2 crap sides so we should end up with a much better percentage.

Look i obviously hope we get 4th spot. But we lost to Essendon and scraped through port by 2 points. How the hell can we smash Carlton when fev will probably kick at least 3 or 4 goals. And the roos playing the last match for the year and looking for a good finish. Our percentage i dont think will change by more then 1 or 2 percent.

I have used the ladder predictor in allthestats.com and it does not seem to work for us any way i put it in there. We need a miracle to get the top 4

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

It boils down to this. Two close wins and we have an outside chance. Two huge wins and our odds improve.

We probably need these things to go in our favour:
West Coast to beat Freo in Round 21
Adelaide to beat Melbourne in Round 22
That should get us fourth spot behind Sydney.

Sydney will probably win its last two games, but if it beats Brisbane and Carlton by only small margins and we win big against Carlton and North, theres a chance we can pass them on percentage. That gives us a possible third spot, or at least gives us another chance if one of the two games above go against us.

If Freo win this week and Sydney pump Brisbane by a big margin, we'll have our work cut out for us to make the top four. We need to win by 70+ points this week.

 

[Marklar_33]

Look i obviously hope we get 4th spot. But we lost to Essendon and scraped through port by 2 points. How the hell can we smash Carlton when fev will probably kick at least 3 or 4 goals. And the roos playing the last match for the year and looking for a good finish. Our percentage i dont think will change by more then 1 or 2 percent.

I have used the ladder predictor in allthestats.com and it does not seem to work for us any way i put it in there. We need a miracle to get the top 4

Didnt work?

You had us winning both games? 14 wins, 115ish%
Did you have Freo lose the derby?
Did you have Melbourne lose to Adelaide at AAMI?

Works for me!

 

[DJ Black @ White Blood]

Didnt work?

You had us winning both games? 14 wins, 115ish%
Did you have Freo lose the derby?
Did you have Melbourne lose to Adelaide at AAMI?

Works for me!

Ill let you know one game im certainly not guarenteed. I really think Brisbane can beat Sydney.

 

[DJ Black @ White Blood]

Didnt work?

You had us winning both games? 14 wins, 115ish%
Did you have Freo lose the derby?
Did you have Melbourne lose to Adelaide at AAMI?

Works for me!

All right ive had another look at the ladder predictor. Freemantle has to lose to West coast (the dockers are playing really well lately and there a good chance) or Sydney has to lose to Brisbane or carlton. We have no other way of getting in. I think

 

[footynuts99]

All right ive had another look at the ladder predictor. Freemantle has to lose to West coast (the dockers are playing really well lately and there a good chance) or Sydney has to lose to Brisbane or carlton. We have no other way of getting in. I think

Agree with that mate. We have to knock the Dockers out by winning all of our games and hoping that Freo lose on of theirs. We have about 13% on them at the moment.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

All right ive had another look at the ladder predictor. Fremantle has to lose to West coast (the dockers are playing really well lately and there a good chance) or Sydney has to lose to Brisbane or carlton. We have no other way of getting in. I think

We can pass Sydney on percentage if they win both games by about 10 points and we win both games by about 55 points. We need to gain in for/against on Sydney by about 90 points over the two games.

We can win by those margins if we have our "game" but whether Brisbane and Carlton can run the Swans that close, I dont know. We really need West Coast to beat Freo and Adelaide to beat Melbourne to have a realistic chance.

 

[Sloth]

Just in case we don't finish top 4, what is the lowest position a team has won the premiership from?

 

[MACDAICOS]

Just in case we don't finish top 4, what is the lowest position a team has won the premiership from?

Crows finished 5th in 1997 I'm pretty sure............

I think whe'll just fall short on the 4 and finish 5th.......With a home Final at the G.......

 

[Hadders]

Here's the predictions by Paul Gough from afl.com if anyone's interested:

http://afl.com.au/default.asp?pg=news&spg=display&articleid=290966

He's got the Pies finishing 4th!

 

[Matthew_72]

Just to summarise what we need to make the 4:

Most obvious scenario

1) We need to win our last 2 games (vs Blues, Norf) PLUS

2) Melbourne to lose at least one more (vs Pussies, Crows) PLUS

3) Freo to lose at least one more (vs Eagles, Port) PLUS

4) St Kilda NOT to chalk up two wins (vs Dogs, Brians) with an aggregate winning margin over the last two rounds 3-4 goals better than ours (otherwise they would pass us on %age)

That would leave the top 4:

Eagles or Crows
Crows or Eagles
Swans (assuming they beat both the Brians and the Blues)
Pies

Individually each of the 4 outcomes above look reasonable but I'd say the chance of all 4 falling our way are well under 50-50.

Unlikely Scenarios

If one of Melbourne or Freo can win two out of two from here then we'll be relying on fairly unlikley events such as the Swans losing one of their two, or the Pies absolutely smashing both the Scum (or is it the Filth, I can never remember) and Norf - as TfT points out, we need to have a total winning margin over the last 2 rounds about 90 - 100 points better than the Swans to pass them on %age.