Mega Thread Trade and List Management discussion

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Igloo

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Sorry for the reminder guys but Toyd (unproven) cost us our captain and first rounder. Those suggesting we'll bag Carlisle (proven top quality KPP) for Hunter (unproven) and our first rounder are dreaming. Even if they swap 2nd round picks it'd still be unders from us because we know even early draft picks are still unproven at AFL level (Christian Howard rabble rabble). Don't forget who we're dealing with in Dodoorknob. And.. before you say it, yes I know we paid overs for Tom Boyd but if you think Essendon won't use that trade as an example to increase JC's worth well, again you're dreaming. Dons will want our first rounder and one of our young guns at the least. Lachie will become a very good player but probably not in time for this trade. If he is included then expect to lose another solid young gun. As awesome as having Carlisle would be I don't think we need him as much as the players he'd cost us
Tom Boyd had more value than Carlisle has. He was 1 year off being taken with the number 1 pick. That would put his value at around pick 1, or even more (because he needs to be traded, not drafted).
That trade is the exception, not the rule.

Our first and Hunter for Carlisle would be accepted every day of the week, imo. It would probably take a while because it's Essendon and the Dodo is hard to deal with.
 

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The circumstances are quite different to what you might think.

Tom Boyd was contracted, and was one of the most overhyped players in the competition, and our list management bought into the hype.

Carlisle is out of contract, and Essendon are in a bit of a crisis right now. They had to let Ryder go for unders last year, and the general assumption is that it might take something similar to prize Carlisle away from the Bombers.
I agree they're in crisis, just can't imagine letting Carlisle go for unders gets them out of crisis. Think a lot of clubs will make better offers than what's being thrown up here
 

Dogsman16

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I agree they're in crisis, just can't imagine letting Carlisle go for unders gets them out of crisis. Think a lot of clubs will make better offers than what's being thrown up here
What offer clubs offer in terms of trade value means jack **** if the uncontracted player nominates a club he wants to go to. Essendon hardly have any right to throw Carlisle (or any of their players under the bus) if he wants out and will deal with the club he nominates if he leaves.

If he nominates the dogs he will be here by October. If he wants to leave he won't be at Essendon.

Our first and Hunter for Carlisle and their 2nd is about fair. Maybe a swap of third rounders in their favour.
 

SeaWind

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Ok, so perception does count? O'Rourke on output was very similar to Hunter. I agree that a high draft pick gets more opportunities than a lower pick, but if Hunter went on the market officially, I think you'd find there would be a lot of interest.
At AFL level? Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that he went at pick 2, and that makes all the difference as far as value goes.

What about an example like O'Rourke, except the player went at pick 40?

What historical evidence are you talking about here???? Do you mean your opinion that players like Hunter get traded for picks around 40+? That's so subjective and simply an assertion of your opinion masquerading as "historical evidence". You've provided no "evidence" whatsoever.
I'm saying there has never been a player taken at pick 40+, who after 3 years of being a fringe player, got traded for a top 30 pick. This is historical evidence whether you like it or not, unless you're able to disprove it. I'm not saying my views on Hunter's market value are fact either, contrary to your twisting of my words; I'm just saying I'm not convinced.
A player who averages 169 champion data points in their under 18 year as a key forward, not a mid, and is a consensus number one pick in every recruiter's eyes, I'm not sure is "over"hyped. Highly regarded, sure, but over hyped makes him out as incorrectly judged, don't you agree?
Hype is subjective. For me, getting a 1 million per year deal for 6 years in your second year despite proving nothing at AFL level is more than enough to constitute being labeled overhyped.
 

BRWB

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I agree they're in crisis, just can't imagine letting Carlisle go for unders gets them out of crisis. Think a lot of clubs will make better offers than what's being thrown up here
They may. But we only have to convince a disgruntled, rabid lifelong dogs supporter that he will be played in position on good coin to nominate us. Odds are good.

Then Ess have to deal with us.
 

Pannalstaroz

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At AFL level? Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that he went at pick 2, and that makes all the difference as far as value goes.

What about an example like O'Rourke, except the player went at pick 40?


I'm saying there has never been a player taken at pick 40+, who after 3 years of being a fringe player, got traded for a top 30 pick. This is historical evidence whether you like it or not, unless you're able to disprove it.


Hype is subjective. For me, getting a 1 million per year deal for 6 years in your second year despite proving nothing at AFL level is more than enough to constitute being labeled overhyped.
Judging Hunter as pick 49 is misconstrued because he was a father son and was considered by others as a pick in the 20s. I accept that still isn't pick 2 but I don't think he's lost as much currency as you think. His exposed form hasn't been enough for him to be branded as a bust, which is when the player really loses currency. Brent Prismall a prime example.
 

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I agree they're in crisis, just can't imagine letting Carlisle go for unders gets them out of crisis. Think a lot of clubs will make better offers than what's being thrown up here
The interesting thing will be whether Carlisle follows the route that Ryder did and threatens to delist himself over workplace health and safety issues/breach of duty of care. If so, Carlisle will drive where he goes rather than Essendon, who will have to chose whether to take Carlisle on in the courts, or as they did with Ryder, avoid having a precedent set that may trigger a player exodus and so simply take what is on offer from the club of Carlisle's choice.
 
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Tom Boyd had more value than Carlisle has. He was 1 year off being taken with the number 1 pick. That would put his value at around pick 1, or even more (because he needs to be traded, not drafted).
That trade is the exception, not the rule.

Our first and Hunter for Carlisle would be accepted every day of the week, imo. It would probably take a while because it's Essendon and the Dodo is hard to deal with.
I understand but can't agree Toyd had more value. Carlisle is proven and can play at either end. Toyd is good right now as a target/contest/for structure but he could still be anything. He might not become great but Carlisle already is
 

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At AFL level? Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that he went at pick 2, and that makes all the difference as far as value goes.

What about an example like O'Rourke, except the player went at pick 40?


I'm saying there has never been a player taken at pick 40+, who after 3 years of being a fringe player, got traded for a top 30 pick. This is historical evidence whether you like it or not, unless you're able to disprove it. I'm not saying my views on Hunter's market value are fact either, contrary to your twisting of my words; I'm just saying I'm not convinced.

Hype is subjective. For me, getting a 1 million per year deal for 6 years in your second year despite proving nothing at AFL level is more than enough to constitute being labeled overhyped.
I give up - you clearly don't understand subjectivity. You think it...so it's FACT.

We see a bit of that attitude on this board from time to time.
 

Igloo

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I understand but can't agree Toyd had more value. Carlisle is proven and can play at either end. Toyd is good right now as a target/contest/for structure but he could still be anything. He might not become great but Carlisle already is
Boyd's value wouldn't have lowered from his draft year. #1 pick KPF seen as one of the best talents to come through the system in recent years.
So you'd value Carlisle as worth about pick 1? Only the best players are ever worth that.

Wouldn't have him close, tbh.
 

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Dogsman16

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From what people in the know have gathered from this whole situation I will summarise.

- Carlilse is a massive dogs fan (we all knew this)
- As of two to three weeks ago negotiations hit a road block and as of know he is more likely to leave than stay.
- We are offering the most in terms of a financial deal at this stage (although as some suggested money isn't his primary concern)
- He is filthy at the Essendon football club for the ASADA situation
- His best 2 mates at the club were Ryder and Fletcher, one is gone and the other surely will retire (although he probably finish his career after carlisle knowing fletcher
- Lachie Hunter has been offered a deal by Essendon and is behind several similar type of players including (Picken, Dahlhaus, Hrovat, Honeychurch and possibly McLean and Dale)

The most important thing is that he solves 2 issues. Number 1 our KPD1 position which he would instantly slot into and 2 he pushes Roughead into his favoured ruck position.

We owe it to jake after taking bloody Christian Howard at 15 instead of jake, to get him to the club.
 

Pannalstaroz

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I understand but can't agree Toyd had more value. Carlisle is proven and can play at either end. Toyd is good right now as a target/contest/for structure but he could still be anything. He might not become great but Carlisle already is
There is nothing of more value than an unraced yearling - similar idea to young, high draft pick footballers. Until they gave proven themselves not up to it, they hold enormous currency.
 
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I understand but can't agree Toyd had more value. Carlisle is proven and can play at either end. Toyd is good right now as a target/contest/for structure but he could still be anything. He might not become great but Carlisle already is
I'm not quite sure this follows in all honesty. Carlisle's an interesting player...he seems to be rated on a "vibe". He was the AA CHB halfway through 2013, then vanished into nothingness and didn't even make the squad. Prior to this he was a capable, building defender, but not elite. Since the beginning of 2014 he's been a disappointing forward who hasn't looked engaged enough in the game, hasn't taken advantage of his attributes and has performed well under par.

I think Carlisle will become a very good key defender but I don't think you can base your assessment of him as 'elite' and 'proven' on an isolated 10 games in 2013, disregarding the drop in form over the rest of 2013 as well as his disappointing two years since. He wouldn't be the first to hit a rich vein of form and then fail to reproduce it for the rest of his career.
 
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Boyd's value wouldn't have lowered from his draft year. #1 pick KPF seen as one of the best talents to come through the system in recent years.
So you'd value Carlisle as worth about pick 1? Only the best players are ever worth that.

Wouldn't have him close, tbh.
Not saying he's worth pick 1 at all. But if I was to rate all the players going around at the moment I would take Carlisle before Boyd yes definitely
 

Dogsman16

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Not saying he's worth pick 1 at all. But if I was to rate all the players going around at the moment I would take Carlisle before Boyd yes definitely
Then how does Tom Boyd's currency drop so significantly after a season and a half of football. Tom Boyd is worth pick 1 in 2013, he was at the end of 2014 and he does now. Boyd holds way more currency than Carlisle.
 

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Just out of interest would people consider hunter and Hrovat for Carlisle ie no picks??
I would do that in a heartbeat. In my view we have numerous players vying with Hunter and Hrovat for positions in our best 22 and neither is likely to be the "difference maker" that Carlisle would be. He would add so much to our structure.
 

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I'm not quite sure this follows in all honesty. Carlisle's an interesting player...he seems to be rated on a "vibe". He was the AA CHB halfway through 2013, then vanished into nothingness and didn't even make the squad. Prior to this he was a capable, building defender, but not elite. Since the beginning of 2014 he's been a disappointing forward who hasn't looked engaged enough in the game, hasn't taken advantage of his attributes and has performed well under par.

I think Carlisle will become a very good key defender but I don't think you can base your assessment of him as 'elite' and 'proven' on an isolated 10 games in 2013, disregarding the drop in form over the rest of 2013 as well as his disappointing two years since. He wouldn't be the first to hit a rich vein of form and then fail to reproduce it for the rest of his career.
Spot on. People even refer to him as an AA defender around here. I like him a lot and now that I've seen what Rough is capable of in the ruck I'm a helll of a lot more keen on Carlisle. But I'm still very sceptical on giving up much considering the circumstances. I know most players wont go out of their way to **** over a previous club (Griffin aside) but he seems like he absolutely hates it there, I'd be getting into his ear to push for the DFA clause, to at least force essendon into taking unders. **** them they don't deserve shit.

Also I wouldn't want our contract for Carlisle to be too big either. I like our defenders to be honest and he pushes ones of them out.
 
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Disagree a better trade comparison is Ryder. Purely because of the threat of legal action by Ess players to get DFA status due to wada. Port's first two late picks got it done, our first and third or hunter should get it done. Not that I think we should though.
But there's obviously the chance Carlisle would lose that case. Ess did beat asada. You'd think they'll be more inclined to fight for Carlisle especially after the asada victory and also if they aren't happy with our offer. They won't want to be screwed over twice out of Paddy and Jc that's certain
 

Pannalstaroz

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Mmmm I have a feeling a lot of posters here would scream it was too much :)

Reason I suggest it is Ess need some decent young smalls and we have too many. I'd look at a swap of 1st or 2nd rounders as well??
Both sides would think it's unfair, and that's pretty normal because supporters often have an inflated value of their players. Ess have smalls, but they need speed and neither player there addresses that need.
 
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