Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 2 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[compact72]

Inside word... If the Saints don’t land Dougal Howard they are going to make it extremely hard for us to get Bruce.
If they get Howard the next domino to fall will be Bruce.

They have no trade currency

If they want to be like that, move on from Bruce.

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[Mr. Walker]

Inside word... If the Saints don’t land Dougal Howard they are going to make it extremely hard for us to get Bruce.
If they get Howard the next domino to fall will be Bruce.

Is there any word that we are trying for Howard? I would prefer him to Keath ( still happy with Keath just rate Howard the better of the two) I know Howard would cost more but better return.

 

[Draft Pick]

I’ll even drive him to Waverley if you like. No charge!

Pie and a can of Coke

I just don’t get the hate for fringe AFL players like Billy who get the best out of themselves. What’s with these sneering comments ?

Billy was terrific in 2018 and it would have an even longer season without him.

 

[grassman75]

Grundy not happy with the Pies offer, wants 7 years.
Landsberger saying we're into another big fish.
We have monstrous cap space.
Bevo wants another ruckman, and loves the mobile big guys.

Grundy to the Dogs confirmed

He'd be excellent back up for Tim English...$300k per year and a late pick with knives coming back our way

 

[Doggy]

Inside word... If the Saints don’t land Dougal Howard they are going to make it extremely hard for us to get Bruce.
If they get Howard the next domino to fall will be Bruce.

If that is the case then move on... there not getting Howard

I still don't see it falling over regardless of Howard

 

[Dog 36]

Inside word... If the Saints don’t land Dougal Howard they are going to make it extremely hard for us to get Bruce.
If they get Howard the next domino to fall will be Bruce.

If this is the case can’t see how Saints get Dougal with the picks they have especially after they use picks for Hill and others. They just don’t have the array of picks required to even get close to doing these deals.

Wait and see but if that’s the case Dogs should look elsewhere or go for Dougal themselves

 

[Doggy]

If this is the case can’t see how Saints get Dougal with the picks they have especially after they use picks for Hill and others. They just don’t have the array of picks required to even get close to doing these deals.

Wait and see but if that’s the case Dogs should look elsewhere or go for Dougal themselves

They cannot fit Bruce in their forward line. He's gone, even before they needed assets

 

[_M_16_]

Alex Keath’s move won’t be the biggest trade of 2019 — but it will be the most complex
AFL

• October 9, 2019 6:32am
• Tom Morris@tommorris32
• Source: FOX SPORTS

Alex Keath wants to get to the Dogs. But it’s complicated. Picture: David MariuzSource: AAP
Adelaide revised its mid-year contract offer for Alex Keath at the end of the season.
Whatever the Crows believed Keath was worth earlier on in the year, he no longer justified that figure at the completion of it.
Though there was still a two-year contract on the table — which could have seen the defender stay at West Lakes if he was desperate — the sheer size of it compared to a four-season deal from the Western Bulldogs made his decision to seek a trade relatively straightforward.
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Grand Final
The Western Bulldogs were delighted to win his heart, but negotiations have not progressed as smoothly as Keath or either club would have liked.
This is primarily due to one reason, which is not abnormal at this time of the year: There is a stark discrepancy between the value the Dogs place on him compared to the Crows.
Adelaide, having elected to attack the draft and effectively hold a fire sale for many of its older brigade, wants maximum return for a player who was fourth in its best and fairest count after Round 13 and was best afield in a Round 8 Showdown victory.

Alex Keath has played 30 AFL games. Picture: Sarah ReedSource: News Corp Australia
“We rate Alex really highly and obviously he was looking for long-term security that the Bulldogs have been able to put on the table,” Crows list chief Justin Reid told Triple M on Tuesday.

But if the Crows rate him “really highly” and truly believe he’s worth an exchange for Pick 13 or one in the early 20s, why did they revise his financial terms so late in the piece?
Equally, if the Dogs are not willing to discuss Pick 13, why are they happy to offer him a deal until the end of 2023? Only Lachie Hunter and Aaron Naughton are tied to Whitten Oval longer than Keath’s proposed tenure.
LISTEN TO THE LATEST EPISODE OF THE TRADING PODCAST BELOW, OR TAP HERE TO SUBSCRIBE IN ITUNES OR SPOTIFY
ON YOUR PHONE? TAP HERE TO LISTEN

These are Reid’s and Bulldogs list boss Sam Power’s arguments in a nutshell.
And complicating Keath’s scenario are two factors. The first pits his age versus experience.
He will be 28 in January, which would normally allow clubs to assess a significant sample size of his talents before executing a trade. There may be a disagreement over the value of the player in the present, but runs on the board in the past would at least give club officials historical reference to fall back on.
Keath, having played for the Melbourne Stars and Victoria as a batting all-rounder until the late Phil Walsh convinced him to return to footy in 2016, has played just 30 senior games since debuting late in Adelaide’s Grand Final season of 2017. His value is as subjective as any player looking to move clubs in the trade period, including Jack Steven’s.
The second factor that makes Keath’s case more complex than your average trade deal concerns his durability.

Eagles, Kelly deal done?
0:32

Even though the left-footer played 18 senior matches in 2019, a stress-related injury late in the season eventually forced him to go under the knife and cancel a summer holiday.
The Crows decided to manage it rather than operate. And it was only when he underwent medicals at Whitten Oval and Moorabbin did it become apparent to those two clubs that an operation was required.
The prognosis has again shifted the goalposts in trade discussions. He will likely return to training around Christmas and steadily increase his workload ahead of a Round 1 debut for his new club.
But when and how he arrives at said new club remains to be seen.
According to list analysis used by club recruiters and list managers, the probability of drafting a player between selections 28 and 35 who goes on to play 100 or more games is 25 per cent.
By extension, if the Crows accepted Pick 32 for Keath, he would statistically be a one-in-four chance of completing his contract and getting close to the 100-match milestone. Obviously there are ample variables, but the general figures don’t lie.
For players selected between Picks 20 and 27, the likelihood of them reaching 100 games rises slightly to 30 per cent.

Alex Keath had injury issues late in the 2019 season. Picture: Scott BarbourSource: AAP
These are often highly-rated second-round draftees. Clubs haggle over the differences between selections 20 and 35 regularly. And even though there is an increased chance a player at Pick 20 will be more successful than one at Pick 35, it’s nowhere as significant as recruiters argue.
It’s unknown where the Crows threshold sits. If the Dogs — having told Keath he needed surgery — believe he’s worth no more than Pick 35 or even 45, how can the Crows convince them otherwise?
As reported by The Age on Tuesday, it appears unlikely St Kilda will be included in negotiations in the hope of a three-way trade that would include Josh Bruce moving to the Bulldogs.
This is where Reid and Power will make their money. The Crows don’t really want Keath. The Dogs absolutely want him. But between these two ambitions are a myriad of nuances that only calm heads and left-thinking football minds can work out.
Reid declared there was “a little bit of posturing” on Tuesday. But his following sentence revealed an underlying frustration with negotiations thus far.
“There is still a long way to go in regards to that negotiation.”
This one is going deep.

 

[doggies ftw]

Hold out on both deals Power you’ve got two weeks! Then take Dougal as well as Bruce mainly just as a **** you to Saints

 

[Doggy]

Hold out on both deals Power you’ve got two weeks! Then take Dougal as well as Bruce mainly just as a fu** you to Saints

There's 1 more week from today

 

[bobs head soup]

Alex Keath’s move won’t be the biggest trade of 2019 — but it will be the most complex
AFL

• October 9, 2019 6:32am
• Tom Morris@tommorris32
• Source: FOX SPORTS

Alex Keath wants to get to the Dogs. But it’s complicated. Picture: David MariuzSource: AAP
Adelaide revised its mid-year contract offer for Alex Keath at the end of the season.
Whatever the Crows believed Keath was worth earlier on in the year, he no longer justified that figure at the completion of it.
Though there was still a two-year contract on the table — which could have seen the defender stay at West Lakes if he was desperate — the sheer size of it compared to a four-season deal from the Western Bulldogs made his decision to seek a trade relatively straightforward.
Stream over 50 sports live & anytime on your TV or favourite device with KAYO SPORTS. The biggest Aussie sports and the best from overseas. Just $25/month. No lock-in contract. Get your 14 day free trial >
Grand Final
The Western Bulldogs were delighted to win his heart, but negotiations have not progressed as smoothly as Keath or either club would have liked.
This is primarily due to one reason, which is not abnormal at this time of the year: There is a stark discrepancy between the value the Dogs place on him compared to the Crows.
Adelaide, having elected to attack the draft and effectively hold a fire sale for many of its older brigade, wants maximum return for a player who was fourth in its best and fairest count after Round 13 and was best afield in a Round 8 Showdown victory.

Alex Keath has played 30 AFL games. Picture: Sarah ReedSource: News Corp Australia
“We rate Alex really highly and obviously he was looking for long-term security that the Bulldogs have been able to put on the table,” Crows list chief Justin Reid told Triple M on Tuesday.

But if the Crows rate him “really highly” and truly believe he’s worth an exchange for Pick 13 or one in the early 20s, why did they revise his financial terms so late in the piece?
Equally, if the Dogs are not willing to discuss Pick 13, why are they happy to offer him a deal until the end of 2023? Only Lachie Hunter and Aaron Naughton are tied to Whitten Oval longer than Keath’s proposed tenure.
LISTEN TO THE LATEST EPISODE OF THE TRADING PODCAST BELOW, OR TAP HERE TO SUBSCRIBE IN ITUNES OR SPOTIFY
ON YOUR PHONE? TAP HERE TO LISTEN

These are Reid’s and Bulldogs list boss Sam Power’s arguments in a nutshell.
And complicating Keath’s scenario are two factors. The first pits his age versus experience.
He will be 28 in January, which would normally allow clubs to assess a significant sample size of his talents before executing a trade. There may be a disagreement over the value of the player in the present, but runs on the board in the past would at least give club officials historical reference to fall back on.
Keath, having played for the Melbourne Stars and Victoria as a batting all-rounder until the late Phil Walsh convinced him to return to footy in 2016, has played just 30 senior games since debuting late in Adelaide’s Grand Final season of 2017. His value is as subjective as any player looking to move clubs in the trade period, including Jack Steven’s.
The second factor that makes Keath’s case more complex than your average trade deal concerns his durability.

Eagles, Kelly deal done?
0:32

Even though the left-footer played 18 senior matches in 2019, a stress-related injury late in the season eventually forced him to go under the knife and cancel a summer holiday.
The Crows decided to manage it rather than operate. And it was only when he underwent medicals at Whitten Oval and Moorabbin did it become apparent to those two clubs that an operation was required.
The prognosis has again shifted the goalposts in trade discussions. He will likely return to training around Christmas and steadily increase his workload ahead of a Round 1 debut for his new club.
But when and how he arrives at said new club remains to be seen.
According to list analysis used by club recruiters and list managers, the probability of drafting a player between selections 28 and 35 who goes on to play 100 or more games is 25 per cent.
By extension, if the Crows accepted Pick 32 for Keath, he would statistically be a one-in-four chance of completing his contract and getting close to the 100-match milestone. Obviously there are ample variables, but the general figures don’t lie.
For players selected between Picks 20 and 27, the likelihood of them reaching 100 games rises slightly to 30 per cent.

Alex Keath had injury issues late in the 2019 season. Picture: Scott BarbourSource: AAP
These are often highly-rated second-round draftees. Clubs haggle over the differences between selections 20 and 35 regularly. And even though there is an increased chance a player at Pick 20 will be more successful than one at Pick 35, it’s nowhere as significant as recruiters argue.
It’s unknown where the Crows threshold sits. If the Dogs — having told Keath he needed surgery — believe he’s worth no more than Pick 35 or even 45, how can the Crows convince them otherwise?
As reported by The Age on Tuesday, it appears unlikely St Kilda will be included in negotiations in the hope of a three-way trade that would include Josh Bruce moving to the Bulldogs.
This is where Reid and Power will make their money. The Crows don’t really want Keath. The Dogs absolutely want him. But between these two ambitions are a myriad of nuances that only calm heads and left-thinking football minds can work out.
Reid declared there was “a little bit of posturing” on Tuesday. But his following sentence revealed an underlying frustration with negotiations thus far.
“There is still a long way to go in regards to that negotiation.”
This one is going deep.

Strange article. All it really boils down to is Crows want a pick in the early 30s, Dogs want to pay a little less. How this makes it "the most complex trade of 2019 " as the headline states is beyond me.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Strange article. All it really boils down to is Crows want a pick in the early 30s, Dogs want to pay a little less. How this makes it "the most complex trade of 2019 " as the headline states is beyond me.

Boils down to Crows wanting the pick we would like to use for Bruce (Saints unlikely to accept). Still going to be tough to get both done and keep 13.

 

[Claythesmiths]

Whatever we offer to Adelaide for Keath, we should throw in our 2020 second for their 2020 third - likely to be only one pick apart anyway

 

[TiAn_]

Boils down to Crows wanting the pick we would like to use for Bruce (Saints unlikely to accept). Still going to be tough to get both done and keep 13.

Trading in peak years CHF & CHB without using our first round pick would be a magician’s act by Power.

As far as worst case scenarios go, ours is that we trade one first round pick to sort out our spine for the next 3-4 years. That’s a bloody good worst case scenario.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Trading in peak years CHF & CHB without using our first round pick would be a magician’s act by Power.

As far as worst case scenarios go, ours is that we trade one first round pick to sort out our spine for the next 3-4 years. That’s a bloody good worst case scenario.

Agreed, Power does seem adamant in keeping 13 though. Going to be complicated and maybe another team like Freo get involved.

 

[JTCWBFC]

How do we see Trengove fitting in next year? Back up ruck?

I just can’t see us winning a flag with him as a key defender.

 

[bobs head soup]

Boils down to Crows wanting the pick we would like to use for Bruce (Saints unlikely to accept). Still going to be tough to get both done and keep 13.

True, we still have the third rounders to package up so a bit to play out. We're not losing anyone, gaining 2 useful elements to the team and still taking something to the draft, so as long as the deals get done it'll be a good result, just a question of how good.

 

[Del165892]

I won't be content with just Bruce and Keith this offseason. Think we need to pick up Howard as well to take us to the next level. Regardless of how you see Trengove and Cordy, one thing we should agree on is the fact that Cordy has never had competition for his spot in the side is objectively a bad thing. Lewis Young is promising but certainly not a sure thing. Would like to see Young, Cordy, Trengove, Keith and one more fighting for those key defensive spots.

 

[Hobdog]

I won't be content with just Bruce and Keith this offseason. Think we need to pick up Howard as well to take us to the next level. Regardless of how you see Trengove and Cordy, one thing we should agree on is the fact that Cordy has never had competition for his spot in the side is objectively a bad thing.

Bit of a polarising player is our Cordy. I don’t like to heap poop all over anyone who pulls on the red, white and blue; however, I do feel nervous when the ball is coming in high and it’s Zaine v a tall forward.


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[Doggy Dan]

If Crows are so desperate pick 13 then they pay overs in points terms and give get us our points for next year. Something like 13 for Keath + 23 + 2020 3rd rounder (making sure it is their 3rd rounder not an on traded one as they will be bottom 6 next year)

a 10 pick downgrade for a KPD and valuable points for next year would be a solid result for us and gets the Crows what they want.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

How do we see Trengove fitting in next year? Back up ruck?

I just can’t see us winning a flag with him as a key defender.

I think he's a better key defender than premiership player Fletcher Roberts.

 

[footyfan000001]

How do we see Trengove fitting in next year? Back up ruck?

I just can’t see us winning a flag with him as a key defender.

Writing is on the wall for him. Now just depth for ruck and full back

 

[True Dog]

I won't be content with just Bruce and Keith this offseason. Think we need to pick up Howard as well to take us to the next level. Regardless of how you see Trengove and Cordy, one thing we should agree on is the fact that Cordy has never had competition for his spot in the side is objectively a bad thing. Lewis Young is promising but certainly not a sure thing. Would like to see Young, Cordy, Trengove, Keith and one more fighting for those key defensive spots.

I think we can still put pressure on Cords even without Howard. Keath and the emerging Young’s (2) should make him accountable

 

[Dogs Rule]

Reid has come out and said we actually did a scan after Rd23 (I was there, unfortunately, lovely ground btw) and we found his leg to be healing well on its own. Bulldogs and Saints medicos disagreed, happens all the time. We’ve actually had a really good run with injuries this year since Saunders, so i don’t think it’s fair to sit back as armchair docs and judge!
As Reid said, I think it’s just a bit of posturing to try lower his trade worth. He expects Keath to be running by Xmas
What was the point in Bulldogs leaking that info to the media?


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Driving a hard bargain by exposing the incompetence of the Crows. It seems very easy to do these days.

 

[Mofra]

Hey guys,

Have heard that we (Hawthorn) have a bit of interest in Gowers but seems like he dropped don the pecking order with you guys. Any particular reason for that?

Buy low, and his dad played for Hawthorn.
He would be cheap at the trade table if the Hawks were interested.