Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 2 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[ScragCity]

Any trade happen?! Go

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Do GWS have enough list spaces to use our 3 third rounders?

Yeah they will. Always keep guys like Sam Reid as rookies to keep those list spots open. They’ve got four open spots at the moment (assuming the Patton and Jacobs deals get done)

 

[Guido]

I'm well versed in probability and of course the higher the pick, the more chance he has of playing to an elite level and having a long career in the game when compared to a player that gets picked later in the draft. All I wanted to convey was that, as presented in the data, in almost every draft you can find a player or multiple players who are drafted later and are every bit as good (and in some cases better) than players drafted in the top handful of picks.

If we put the top end talent aside and take a direct look at the current picks being used in this debate, over a 5 year period this is what the data looks like;

Currently we have pick 32 (on offer for Bruce) and 45 (on offer for Keath), The Saints presumably want around pick 23 for Bruce (Adelaide's pick which we could trade 13 for). In order to expand the data, I have included the pick before and pick after for each pick.

Picks 22,23,24 (2014-2018) - Ave. Games Played - 22.4
Picks 31,32,33 (2014-2018) - Ave. Games Played - 19.33
Picks 44,45,46 (2014-2018) - Ave. Games Played - 22.73

So statistically speaking, over the last 5 years of Draft History, you are just as likely to find a decent player in the middle of round 3 as you are in the early parts of round 2...and this is the crux of my argument. Clubs are spending an inordinate amount of time in what is essentially a giant dick measuring contest.

It would be nice for once, if these list managers put their ego's aside and instead of trying to win, looked at the numbers analytically and came to the realisation that the difference between pick 22 and pick 46 is not as big a deal as they make it out to be. Like I said yesterday, if the Dogs and Saints both agree that Josh Bruce is worth a 2nd Round pick and we have offered our 2nd round pick, then the only thing stopping it from happening is the 'need to win' the trade from the Saints end. But then again, what would you expect from a Club that is run by a bloke whose moral compass points due south...

The last five years is too close - when years 1-3 are usually development seasons, an analysis needs players to have been in the system at least 7, probably closer to 10 years to get a full picture of what players can achieve.

I did a very rough, very basic analysis a few years ago, and the percentages were a little like this:

18-29, you've got a 1 in 3 chance of getting a top shelf player. Many of them AA's. Another 1 in 3 players are likely to be solid 100 gamers sitting in the middle of your list, the other 1 in 3 taken in that range will be busts.

Picks 30-40, chances of picking up a 150 gamer drops to about 25%, and the chances of that player being AA level compared to the 18-29 range also falls away significantly.

After 40, it's about a 1 in 5 chance of getting a long term player.

Rookie list, 10% of the pool will be quality long term players.

Stars do consistently fall to the late teens/early 20s, sometimes even late 20s, but in the last dozen or so years, very rarely will a player capable of being multiple All Australian last to 30+.

With a bit of luck and depending on the draft order, guys like Ward, Shuey, Grundy, Dunkley, Fyfe, Beams, Merrett, Rance, English, Tim Kelly *may* be available at 20 or even 25, but almost definitely won't not be available at 30+. That's why list managers don't treat picks in the early 20s at the same value as those after 30, even though there's anecdotal evidence every draft that there may not be much difference between any two arbitrary picks in those ranges.

 

[Sentinel]

Port may be waiting for the Fantasia deal to become clearer before the dominoes start to fall for Howard and then Bruce.

 

[fred cook]

Any trade happen?! Go

No come back at 5 58 pm Monday the 14/10/209 and we should do two trades then

 

[ossie_21]

Port may be waiting for the Fantasia deal to become clearer before the dominoes start to fall for Howard and then Bruce.

Absolutely f**k all will happen in the next few days, then it will all go haywire next week. There will be maybe the smaller & easier trades like Betts & Keath and maybe Steven that will go through, anything else will be next week.

Kudos for Geelong & West Coast to get such a big trade done quickly, if that dragged out it would have sucked for everyone

 

[Sentinel]

Absolutely f**k all will happen in the next few days, then it will all go haywire next week. There will be maybe the smaller & easier trades like Betts & Keath and maybe Steven that will go through, anything else will be next week.

Kudos for Geelong & West Coast to get such a big trade done quickly, if that dragged out it would have sucked for everyone

Exactly, the only thing extending trade week has done is give the AFL more air time via trade radio and new articles.

No extra trades will be made which wouldn't have occurred if the trade period was 4 days instead of 8.

 

[The City Boyz]

Talk we're into Geelong forward sam Simpson apparently

 

[ossie_21]

Talk we're into Geelong forward sam Simpson apparently

Who, and I cannot stress this enough, the * is that?

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Talk we're into Geelong forward sam Simpson apparently

There it is, the big fish we've been waiting for

 

[Dogs Rule]

Talk we're into Geelong forward sam Simpson apparently

 

[go the dogs]

Would people be happy with this deal.

45 51 53 (839 points. Helps them for academy) to freo 26 (729 points hence helping freo )and dockers 2020 4th round to dogs. might give us an extra 100 or so points next year if needed. Then send 26 to saints for Bruce pretty fair for both.

Leaves us with 13 & 32 & 80 odd for rookie upgrade. With Keath to get.

I would go to the cats and ask for 17 & 36 Most likely 37 so they stay 1 ahead of us. Offer 37 to the crows for Keath and head to the draft with 17 & 32.

People thoughts seems pretty fair for every1.

In a nutshell.

In Bruce Keath 17 next years 4th from Freo
Out 13,45,51,53

 

[Northernsoul74]

Would people be happy with this deal.

45 51 53 (839 points. Helps them for academy) to freo 26 (729 points hence helping freo )and dockers 2020 4th round to dogs. might give us an extra 100 or so points next year if needed. Then send 26 to saints for Bruce pretty fair for both.

Leaves us with 13 & 32 & 80 odd for rookie upgrade. With Keath to get.

I would go to the cats and ask for 17 & 36 Most likely 37 so they stay 1 ahead of us. Offer 37 to the crows for Keath and head to the draft with 17 & 32.

People thoughts seems pretty fair for every1.

Don’t mind the first part. I’d probably keep 13 and just give 32 for Keath.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Would people be happy with this deal.

45 51 53 (839 points. Helps them for academy) to freo 26 (729 points hence helping freo )and dockers 2020 4th round to dogs. might give us an extra 100 or so points next year if needed. Then send 26 to saints for Bruce pretty fair for both.

Leaves us with 13 & 32 & 80 odd for rookie upgrade. With Keath to get.

I would go to the cats and ask for 17 & 36 Most likely 37 so they stay 1 ahead of us. Offer 37 to the crows for Keath and head to the draft with 17 & 32.

People thoughts seems pretty fair for every1.

In a nutshell.

In Bruce Keath 17 next years 4th from Freo
Out 13,45,51,53

I’ll be honest, as the years go on these trade deals with pick swaps and points get more and more complex or maybe as I get older my brain has less capacity to comprehend.

 

[go the dogs]

Don’t mind the first part. I’d probably keep 13 and just give 32 for Keath.

Would leave us 13 & 80 in the draft. I would rather 17 & 32.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Would leave us 13 & 80 in the draft. I would rather 17 & 32.

I can see where you’re coming from when you put it like that.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Who, and I cannot stress this enough, the fu** is that?

Beat me to it.

Google tells me, he is a 180cm 68kg forward who was taken at Pick 50+ in the 2017 rookie draft as a F/S.
Played 4 games in 2017, 1 game in 2018 and no games in 2019.
Across those 5 games, disposal tallies of 13, 12, 13, 7 and 11.
2 career goals.
Hard to see why we would be interested.

 

[TommyD13]

Would people be happy with this deal.

45 51 53 (839 points. Helps them for academy) to freo 26 (729 points hence helping freo )and dockers 2020 4th round to dogs. might give us an extra 100 or so points next year if needed. Then send 26 to saints for Bruce pretty fair for both.

Leaves us with 13 & 32 & 80 odd for rookie upgrade. With Keath to get.

I would go to the cats and ask for 17 & 36 Most likely 37 so they stay 1 ahead of us. Offer 37 to the crows for Keath and head to the draft with 17 & 32.

People thoughts seems pretty fair for every1.

In a nutshell.

In Bruce Keath 17 next years 4th from Freo
Out 13,45,51,53

Was trying to think something up along these lines myself. I 100% agree, although maybe 32 to Crows for Keath and keep 37 and that seems a win-win-win to me

 

[Northernsoul74]

Beat me to it.

Google tells me, he is a 180cm 68kg forward who was taken at Pick 50+ in the 2017 rookie draft as a F/S.
Played 4 games in 2017, 1 game in 2018 and no games in 2019.
Across those 5 games, disposal tallies of 13, 12, 13, 7 and 11.
2 career goals.
Hard to see why we would be interested.

Won their vfl B&F.

 

[Northernsoul74]

We could really do with just getting Keath done and dusted so we can move on to Bruce. I’m bored and yet far too invested in these trades now.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Won their vfl B&F.

Would think a pick in the 80+ range would be enough to secure, if we were keen and if we couldn't otherwise get as a DFA.

 

[TommyD13]

Would think a pick in the 80+ range would be enough to secure, if we were keen and if we couldn't otherwise get as a DFA.

I just had a look. He wears his socks up as a non ruckman. No deal

 

[Yojimbo]

Who, and I cannot stress this enough, the fu** is that?

Sam Simpson is the son of former cat Sean Simpson who played 114 Games between 1991-1998, a player
type would be the great Declan Hamilton who was Jarman related or Jason Tutt two types who could fit
into our forward half and provide Bevo with mucho flexibility.

 

[dergert]

Talk we're into Geelong forward sam Simpson apparently

Yes!

Small forward/wingman. Won cats vfl bnf this year.

Where'd you hear this?

 

[maddog37]

Ballarat boy.