Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 3 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[BRWB]

JJ isn't even playing half back at the moment. You'd almost need 2 others to drop out to fit Richards into the 7 man defensive rotation.

So JJ isnt a back anymore?. I did not know that. Carry on then.

 

[Dogsman16]

So JJ isnt a back anymore?. I did not know that. Carry on then.

It was more a comment regarding Richards. I just don't see a way he cracks the defensive rotation. He isn't as defensively sound as Williams/Crozier/Wood, nor is he the rebounder that Daniel/JJ. Our small/medium defenders is close to being the biggest strength we have as a club (apart from our midfield).

Throw in Duryea who's also a solid defender.

 

[BRWB]

It was more a comment regarding Richards. I just don't see a way he cracks the defensive rotation. He isn't as defensively sound as Williams/Crozier/Wood, nor is he the rebounder that Daniel/JJ. Our small/medium defenders is close to being the biggest strength we have as a club (apart from our midfield).

Throw in Duryea who's also a solid defender.

I'd have thought Richards has looked most comfortable slotting into our backline and filling the rebounding role JJ has played.

But if JJ doesn't play back anymore then the point is moot I guess...

Well unless we look further at your point in this post that says we are overstocked in backs and extrapolate that to suggest we may be wise to explore trading an overstocked resource out.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

It's not the right time to trade Richards, but I think it's possible that that may be in the future for him. He needs a bit of help to find the ball and get involved and keep his intensity up, which are often the limitations that send a player to half back to let their strengths flourish. Wood and Duryea seemingly having a bit of footy left in them is going to make it tough for him when you consider we're already playing so many defenders that JJ (looking like a permanent move) and Croz (hopefully not a permanent move) are playing a fair bit of time forward.

He's still got time to develop as a front-half player, but failing that I can see a trade being in both parties' best interests. But not yet.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

As an aside, Jon Ralph (I know, I know, grain of salt) suggesting list sizes are likely to be 42 - 36 main, 4 rookie, 2 cat B; or 38 main, 4 rookies. Gives us a lot more flexibility and likely saves a couple of fringe types.

 

[Dogsman16]

Richards needs to find a way to become the small forward we require. He has very good pace, I've seen him kick some clever goals and I've also seen him lay some big tackles.

Many of our half backs are high volume accumulators and Richards has shown no evidence whatsoever that he can be a high disposal getter. I think his future as a defender at the dogs is basically zilch. Duryea/Wood both look like they can easily play another season if not 2 of top level football and Richards cracking the other roles (Williams, Crozier, Daniel) is pretty slim.

If Richards continues to get only 10 - 12 disposals a game thats fine, but he needs to be having high impact. 1+ Goal a game, goal assists, tackles inside forward 50. If he's not doing that by end of 2021 then he should be traded out and get someone in who can.

 

[doggies ftw]

Richards is in his 3rd year, with one great debut season unde his belt at half back and quite a few great performances in the forward line but a lot of inconsistency. I can bet absolutely anything right now he’s not on the trade table.

 

[doggies ftw]

Richards needs to find a way to become the small forward we require. He has very good pace, I've seen him kick some clever goals and I've also seen him lay some big tackles.

Many of our half backs are high volume accumulators and Richards has shown no evidence whatsoever that he can be a high disposal getter. I think his future as a defender at the dogs is basically zilch. Duryea/Wood both look like they can easily play another season if not 2 of top level football and Richards cracking the other roles (Williams, Crozier, Daniel) is pretty slim.

If Richards continues to get only 10 - 12 disposals a game thats fine, but he needs to be having high impact. 1+ Goal a game, goal assists, tackles inside forward 50. If he's not doing that by end of 2021 then he should be traded out and get someone in who can.

Agree that should be the role he’s aiming for. He’s shown signs that he could be brilliant in that role ImO but obviously his production is not there yet but not sure why he gets marked so harshly compared to other players with 2-3 seasons under their belt

 

[TBOW]

As an aside, Jon Ralph (I know, I know, grain of salt) suggesting list sizes are likely to be 42 - 36 main, 4 rookie, 2 cat B; or 38 main, 4 rookies. Gives us a lot more flexibility and likely saves a couple of fringe types.

That seems odd - would pretty much be the end of cat B rookies.

 

[Dale4captain]

Richards is a Gary Rohan clone with red hair and all. Well built medium utility who struggles to find the ball but has incredible pace. Rohan was a slow starter too but carved out a role for himself. Have faith. He needs a secondary comp to learn in and develop but I get why he’s been left in our seniors. Scratch matches are not a place for player development and skill teaching unfortunately.

Wouldn’t be opposed to have him take up the role McLean was playing and tag some of the really smooth movers to learn a few off ball patterns and how to get to better places.

 

[Dogsman16]

Agree that should be the role he’s aiming for. He’s shown signs that he could be brilliant in that role ImO but obviously his production is not there yet but not sure why he gets marked so harshly compared to other players with 2-3 seasons under their belt

He's compared harshly because several of our other first round picks since 2013 have made a tremendous contribution early in their careers in comparison.

Richards first year was very solid, but he hasn't made any inroads into developing his output. Sure doesn't help that he can't fit in our defensive rotation (IMO we have one of the best small/medium defender groupings in the league), but he just needs to show more as a small pressure forward (a position we are in dire need of).

I think as of 2021 the only locks in our forward line will be Naughton and Wallis, in addition to 2/3 of Bruce/JUH/2nd ruck. 2 spots are wide open for small forwards (preferably pacey smalls) like Weightman, Cavarra, Richards (and I'd also trade in Ronke).

Richards at most might get 1-2 games in defense if our injury stocks are dire.

 

[TBOW]

I think the only problem with Richards is that we armchair analysts can't identify what it is that he is contributing to the team either visually or statistically.
But clearly he is contributing in a big way as he is picked every week without fail.
Maybe it is gut running to fill holes in our zone, or creating space in our forward structure or taking an opponent out of the play.
There are lots of elements to the game of football that are hard to identify from the outside.

 

[Dogsman16]

I think the only problem with Richards is that we armchair analysts can't identify what it is that he is contributing to the team either visually or statistically.
But clearly he is contributing in a big way as he is picked every week without fail.
Maybe it is gut running to fill holes in our zone, or creating space in our forward structure or taking an opponent out of the play.
There are lots of elements to the game of football that are hard to identify from the outside.

I do agree that in many respects due to our supporters not being able to attend games, it's hard to gauge his exact worth when we can't see the structures across the ground.

 

[Dale4captain]

I think the only problem with Richards is that we armchair analysts can't identify what it is that he is contributing to the team either visually or statistically.
But clearly he is contributing in a big way as he is picked every week without fail.
Maybe it is gut running to fill holes in our zone, or creating space in our forward structure or taking an opponent out of the play.
There are lots of elements to the game of football that are hard to identify from the outside.

His off ball work in our structure has been praised heavily in a few media pieces I’ve seen. Blocks in the forward line and zone D are his forte atm. Just hope he can pair that with getting a kick every now and then.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

That seems odd - would pretty much be the end of cat B rookies.

That's why I think the first option (i.e. cat B rookies built into the system) is more likely.

That said, unfortunately Cat B rookies take a lot more resources for, in most cases, less immediate reward. So with cap sizes etc dropping it's not surprising to see that this system could be abolished.

 

[TBOW]

That's why I think the first option (i.e. cat B rookies built into the system) is more likely.

That said, unfortunately Cat B rookies take a lot more resources for, in most cases, less immediate reward. So with cap sizes etc dropping it's not surprising to see that this system could be abolished.

Ah right - I mistook it for being clubs choice 36-4-2 or 38-4. If it's one or the other I think 38 and 4 definitely seems more likely.
Some clubs (like us) don't even have cat B rookies. We could maybe move Buku to cat B and maybe put Raak there if he doesn't get drafted.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Ah right - I mistook it for being clubs choice 36-4-2 or 38-4. If it's one or the other I think 38 and 4 definitely seems more likely.
Some clubs (like us) don't even have cat B rookies. We could maybe move Buku to cat B and maybe put Raak there if he doesn't get drafted.

I think a number of clubs would be pushing for that, but the AFL's preference would certainly be for the Cat B list to remain.

 

[Dogsman16]

Polec also just confirmed to pack his bags.

 

[bresker]

Ballsy moves by the Roos. Guess they'll have to eat a lot of sh!t for a few years in the hope of rising off the deck by the mid-2020s.

 

[Philthy1]

Ben Brown is being forced out of the Roos. Quite unbelievable.

Had a poor 2020 - kicked over 60 in each of 2017, 2018 and 2019. Indeed kicked the most goals of any player in the comp between 2017 to 2019.

28 years old in November this year.

The way they’re talking, cost is 500k salary and maybe a 2nd rounder! Incredible!!

Could it work for us? Imagine 2021:

Forward talls: Brown, Bruce, JUH
Defence talls: Naughton, Keath, Cordy

Scary!

Interestingly, he sold his house back in May. He lived in the next street to me. Not sure if that was due to having to take a Covid pay cut or he is moving to a new state or new suburb.

 

[BEaston]

Ah right - I mistook it for being clubs choice 36-4-2 or 38-4. If it's one or the other I think 38 and 4 definitely seems more likely.
Some clubs (like us) don't even have cat B rookies. We could maybe move Buku to cat B and maybe put Raak there if he doesn't get drafted.

Buku is Cat-B

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Buku is Cat-B

There was some confusion about this; there was intel that we opted to list him as a Cat A rookie at some stage. So I don't think any of us really know.

 

[flipper83]

I think the only problem with Richards is that we armchair analysts can't identify what it is that he is contributing to the team either visually or statistically.
But clearly he is contributing in a big way as he is picked every week without fail.
Maybe it is gut running to fill holes in our zone, or creating space in our forward structure or taking an opponent out of the play.
There are lots of elements to the game of football that are hard to identify from the outside.

I think we often structure up with Hunter on the slow/crowded wing and Richards or another pacy player on the fast/open wing.
More often than not we use the slow wing to either chip the ball up the ground or kick to a contest and try to get a handball chain going. Hunter is great at finding space in these chip kick chains or getting involved in handball chains which means he can rack up the possessions.

We're pretty reluctant to use the open side of the ground and it's a very hard spot to play because you have to alternate between being a target or opening up space and potentially being the next kick. Often Richards is out there fighting for hurried kicks out of defense that have just gone to space rather than to his advantage. If we use it on a switch then it's usually our high defenders running the ball out so he has to push higher up the ground to create space for them and often the ball is then kicked to a midfielder who is cutting across from the other side of the ground.

His contested possession rate is almost 50% which is very high for a winger/outside mid. Hunter is about 25%.

Richards is often one out fighting to get a ball out of bounds or get a ball up to stop an opposition repeat entry which is thankless statless work but is valuable to the team.

Another thing that I found interesting is that Richards average AFL player rating points for this year is higher that Brad Hill's who most were dreaming about adding to the wing last off season. I know these player measurement metrics are always going to have flaws but these ratings take into account the value of a players involvements rather than basing it off stats. The full explanation is below.

Every time a player is involved in a passage of play he will have the chance to accrue points. But rather than his score being a simple tally of his possessions, marks, tackles, hit-outs, free-kicks and scores, his performance will be measured using a system called Equity Ratings. The system determines where and how a player influences a contest and whether the player's effort then results in a positive result for his team. Equity Ratings includes what coaches love to describe as "pressure acts". As a result, players are rewarded for interrupting opposition passages of play as well as setting up scores for their own team.

Players who consistently produce positive contributions are rewarded more highly than players with a high volume of stats. As an example, a 20 disposal game by Cyril Rioli where 17 disposals are positive and only one is negative can have the same impact as a 40 disposal game by Dane Swan where 25 are positive and nine are negative.

 

[bresker]

Shaun Higgins being shopped around too

North Melbourne open to Shaun Higgins move

North Melbourne are open to trading veteran Shaun Higgins if he can land a deal with another club beyond 2021.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Mojorisin]

Shaun Higgins being shopped around too

North Melbourne open to Shaun Higgins move

North Melbourne are open to trading veteran Shaun Higgins if he can land a deal with another club beyond 2021.

www.theage.com.au

Will be at the cats I believe