Triple J Hottest 100 - 2020

[jack1231]

View attachment 1043350

This one's worth a throw at the stumps. Probably more of a $3.00 chance. "Therefore I Am" is the biggest risk.

I think you can get therefore I am $4 top 10 b364 just FYI if you liked this.

 

[ronpingwins]

How confident is everyone on heat waves a couple days on from that announcement? Surely it stormed home with the weight of all glass animals’ campaigning and charting. Bit of a scare though..


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Anxious definitely, just surprised it didn't have a comfortable lead. Main worry is looking back at it coming 8th in the Album poll and whether we missed something there. Ultimately if there were 60,000 shortlists that had been started and probably a stack more last minute votes, the 350 vote difference is nothing so assuming it's top 2 it's still likely to get up. More and more thinking Flume is top 2 though, I see that as the most likely combo.

 

[ronpingwins]

Neds/Lads have finally put some more markets up, they've given absolutely no value though from what I can see.

 

[Gibbsy]

Neds/Lads have finally put some more markets up, they've given absolutely no value though from what I can see.

SB have to be putting some internal limits on pricing.

One of the latest BYO markets is "No Artist to have 2 or more songs in the Top 100" at $10. This market should be paying 100 to 1. If anyone is dumb enough to bet on it then they deserve to lose their money, but surely they'd attract more degenerates by putting it at $101 and setting a max bet of say $5 rather than leaving it priced at $10 which is nowhere near high enough to be appealing, even to the novice punter?

As an aside, the below bet looks like a pretty decent shout, nothing too out of the ordinary:

 

[BG__]

I wonder how much money has actually been bet on the countdown this year and if its down a fair bit on previous years.

Most of the markets the odds are just insanely shit

 

[ronpingwins]

SB have to be putting some internal limits on pricing.

One of the latest BYO markets is "No Artist to have 2 or more songs in the Top 100" at $10. This market should be paying 100 to 1. If anyone is dumb enough to bet on it then they deserve to lose their money, but surely they'd attract more degenerates by putting it at $101 and setting a max bet of say $5 rather than leaving it priced at $10 which is nowhere near high enough to be appealing, even to the novice punter?

As an aside, the below bet looks like a pretty decent shout, nothing too out of the ordinary:

View attachment 1043738

Yeah there's definitely limits with max payouts now, i don't think there's any bet that you could request that would be more than $11. I think they're just cautious about their lack of knowledge on it. They're behaving a little differently to last year, it could have something to do with the merger with BetEasy? They were the ones that have been doing the BYOs and giving really stingy odds the last couple of years. It's not as though any of the agencies would have lost that much on these markets which confuses me, all the money last year was for Dance Monkey and Tame Impala wasn't heavily backed for the decade poll either.

That bet is a solid one, you'd expect all of them to happen but I wouldn't say it's overs, just not unders like everything else

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

SB have posted Exactas, those confident in a HW/Flume 1-2, it’s currently at $3.50. In case HW drops to second and Flume pips it, that’s currently at $10.

 

[jack1231]

SB have posted Exactas, those confident in a HW/Flume 1-2, it’s currently at $3.50. In case HW drops to second and Flume pips it, that’s currently at $10.

These odds are woeful. Better just betting on the outright winner in most cases

 

[Kickartist]

The top 3 and top 5 multi options on SB even with more obscure inclusions don't multi to much more than $4 and powered to $8 respectively.
I like HW, Difference, Tame, I'm Good and Hyperfine, but a multi of $7.13 (powered) is impossible to back.

 

[jack1231]

Sportsbet just beefed up some BYO odds as of on queue ?
The example used above is now $15. Ha

 

[Gibbsy]

Good point made on the Triple J subreddit today re: not seeing the teaser stats we usually get.

 

[jack1231]

100 of the decade Teaser was on the Friday though I think. Less productive at ABC than they used to be

 

[Gibbsy]

100 of the decade Teaser was on the Friday though I think. Less productive at ABC than they used to be

Less funding

 

[BG__]

Good point made on the Triple J subreddit today re: not seeing the teaser stats we usually get.

View attachment 1043922

Stats are out now

Get a taste of tomorrow's Hottest 100 with these teaser stats - triple j

To keep you going until game day on Saturday, we reveal some little factoids about what the final list looks like...

www.abc.net.au

 

[BG__]

Three artists getting back to back songs is pretty interesting

 

[Gibbsy]

Three artists getting back to back songs is pretty interesting

Heh, I just went and had a quick look at the back-to-back songs BYO market on SB but it's already been suspended. Wonder if anyone got in quick.

EDIT: They really should suspend the "No Artist to Have 2 or More Songs in the Top 100" market then as well, now that it's literally impossible.

 

[ronpingwins]

Lime Cordiale pretty likely, I think Juice Wrdl has a couple close together, no other obvious choices. Wouldn't be surprised for a Ball Park/Hockey Dad/Ocean Alley have a couple of their 101-200 pop up next to each other really early. If there's a lot less votes this year as implied, possibly Ruel has a few of his lesser songs get in next to each other as well.

Interesting that the 350 difference between 1 and 2 last week was mentioned, but nothing further on it on how close it was.

 

[JJJason]

Yet another mention of that magical 350 figure...really clinging onto that, as if it’s anything but close now


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[Gibbsy]

If you ever needed a reminder that the bookies are out to get you at every possibility.

It's been confirmed that multiple artists have back-to-back songs in the countdown, ergo, the below is literally impossible.

Yet they are still letting people put money on it. Thieves.

 

[BG__]

Lime Cordiale pretty likely, I think Juice Wrdl has a couple close together, no other obvious choices. Wouldn't be surprised for a Ball Park/Hockey Dad/Ocean Alley have a couple of their 101-200 pop up next to each other really early. If there's a lot less votes this year as implied, possibly Ruel has a few of his lesser songs get in next to each other as well.

Interesting that the 350 difference between 1 and 2 last week was mentioned, but nothing further on it on how close it was.

Polaris a chance, Warm Tunas have them 92 and their LAV 86. Feels like the kind of artist whose fan base would vote for both songs too which would keep them close.

Lime Cordiale almost a lock i reckon.

 

[BG__]

If you ever needed a reminder that the bookies are out to get you at every possibility.

It's been confirmed that multiple artists have back-to-back songs in the countdown, ergo, the below is literally impossible.

Yet they are still letting people put money on it. Thieves.

View attachment 1044201

If I tried to load up on it I wonder if they'd limit me to **** all like everything else, or just accept my stake

 

[Kickartist]

Assumptions to be made from the repeat year stats.

Two artists for 7th year in a row has to be Peking and DMA's.
Six artists for 4th year in a row are Billie, Mallrat, Skegss, Ocean Alley, Hockey Dad and San Cisco? Unless anyone suspects Baker Boy, Post Malone, BROCKHAMPTON or Khalid in some way get in.

 

[thewitness]

Assumptions to be made from the repeat year stats.

Two artists for 7th year in a row has to be Peking and DMA's.
Six artists for 4th year in a row are Billie, Mallrat, Skegss, Ocean Alley, Hockey Dad and San Cisco? Unless anyone suspects Baker Boy, Post Malone, BROCKHAMPTON or Khalid in some way get in.

Baker Boy is a chance, but probably less of a chance than Skegs or Hockey Dad which are the only 2 of your group that could potentially miss.

 

[Pieman87]

It looks like SB have taken down highest finishing song (trio & four) and only have H2H left.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

People must really be getting on WAP. Now into 3rd favourite overall on SB and has gone right up on the Top 3,5 and 10 markets. Second in the ‘Without HW/BS’ market too. No extra movement on WT though, if anything it has slipped on there. Similar sort of change in odds to what we saw with Travis Scott a couple of years ago.

Anyone holding onto hope that Flume can get up, he’s out to $11 for a win now.