eagle dtrain
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- Oct 11, 2012
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Kia Ora Koutou is a massive chance to win the derby has heaps of potential and if it doesn't over race can give Tarzino a run for its money. Should be 5.00 for mine is great value
VRC Derby/Mackinnon Stakes Day 2015
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Trainer is pretty bullish about it's potential.
The other one is Etymology. Not sure why it's at $15? Ran well in the Norman Robinson - had to run over heels to get a run and then finished well behind Sacred Eye. Looked a nice Derby trial and has the breeding to run the trip. I have it ahead of a few others.
I reckon $1.50 is a fair price for Exosphere, as it stands Chautauqua only sprinter I would likely back to beat him in any race and even then not much between them on what they are doing this campaign.
Mckinnon a tough one this year, normally the Cox Plate form holds up but hard to get a read on them this year, all well beaten and some of their lead up form into the Cox mixed.
Starum Star the one who has had the best lead up I would think, forget Happy Trails went around in the Cox, had to come a mile wide in the quicksand, his run as good as Pornichet and Fawkner who saved ground on the rail, his 2000M record at Flemington good and he thrashed the others he meets here in the Caulfiled Stakes, as I said a messy race however, hard to be confident in anything.
What are the Godolphin horses like and are they going McKinnon or Lexus? Apparently Secrect Number is a stunner, I know little about its form but believe they want to run in the Cup so would think Lexus more likely.
Stay With Me will take beating in the Myer with 49kg.
Mckinnon a tough one this year, normally the Cox Plate form holds up but hard to get a read on them this year, all well beaten and some of their lead up form into the Cox mixed.
Starum Star the one who has had the best lead up I would think, forget Happy Trails went around in the Cox, had to come a mile wide in the quicksand, his run as good as Pornichet and Fawkner who saved ground on the rail, his 2000M record at Flemington good and he thrashed the others he meets here in the Caulfiled Stakes, as I said a messy race however, hard to be confident in anything.
What are the Godolphin horses like and are they going McKinnon or Lexus? Apparently Secrect Number is a stunner, I know little about its form but believe they want to run in the Cup so would think Lexus more likely.
Stay With Me will take beating in the Myer with 49kg.
iluvparis
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Pretty sure the Mackinnon is also ballot free? re: Secret Number
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Last I heard they are rolling dice with Secret Number hoping for attrition,27 atm
Elhaame will run in the Lexus
seth
Either of their form worthy of a spot in the Cup or just making up the numbers?
All have had so little racing in the last 18 months,hardly seen them.Paris may have seen them?
It would be an ask off such light preps to run Sat then Tuesday.
Surprised they are going to Lexus with Elhaame,must think he can back up
seth
iluvparis
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Yes agree with seth - would be one of the great training efforts if they can get Secret Number up off that prep having raced once since March.
Has been generally racing in the second division staying events so would have to improve just to get to TTP's level let alone win.
Elhaame is a handicapper - and not even a top level one - would be staggered if he's good enough.
Has been generally racing in the second division staying events so would have to improve just to get to TTP's level let alone win.
Elhaame is a handicapper - and not even a top level one - would be staggered if he's good enough.
- Feb 19, 2008
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Royal Descent has class on her side, but I won't be backing her dropping back from the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup to a mile race two weeks later.
Would be an impressive training effort if Waller can get her to win with that sort of prep.
- Jan 30, 2013
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had the shades on this morning.
would be the first time in her career from memory. jus' sayin'
Strange preparation for RD, 2000M out to 2400M (failure) then back to 1600M, hard to have her on that preparation as how can you expect her to run to her best?
At peak 1600M she wins the race, however she does have a tendency to find one better.
Stay with Me clearly out rated Press Statement in their Gunieas with me, run 3.5 lengths faster than him overall, 10 lengths faster last 1000M and 3 lengths faster last 600M, Press Statement ran a stop start race that never gave the others a chance but also prevented him from maintaining his momentum in the race but SWM has solid sustained speed throughout, drops 6.5kg which is about 2 lengths on my scale which has her very competitive in the vast majority of G1 mares grade races.
I think she is a pretty good horse, had the one poor runs this campaign off a farcical early pace but don't think she will get that here, also like the long straight for her to wind up.
Didn't think she would come up clear favorite however.
Abidewithme looks hard to beat on her RC/Toorak runs, had the lighter weights but fast run races and good form for mares grade.
Politeness an interesting one, strange prep for this, 1200-1200 to 1600M, never won at 1600M either, I personally think she might be a better run on sprinter.
Mays Dream & Fenway some chance.
At peak 1600M she wins the race, however she does have a tendency to find one better.
Stay with Me clearly out rated Press Statement in their Gunieas with me, run 3.5 lengths faster than him overall, 10 lengths faster last 1000M and 3 lengths faster last 600M, Press Statement ran a stop start race that never gave the others a chance but also prevented him from maintaining his momentum in the race but SWM has solid sustained speed throughout, drops 6.5kg which is about 2 lengths on my scale which has her very competitive in the vast majority of G1 mares grade races.
I think she is a pretty good horse, had the one poor runs this campaign off a farcical early pace but don't think she will get that here, also like the long straight for her to wind up.
Didn't think she would come up clear favorite however.
Abidewithme looks hard to beat on her RC/Toorak runs, had the lighter weights but fast run races and good form for mares grade.
Politeness an interesting one, strange prep for this, 1200-1200 to 1600M, never won at 1600M either, I personally think she might be a better run on sprinter.
Mays Dream & Fenway some chance.
- Feb 19, 2008
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Like May's Dream, also wouldn't rule out Jessy Belle - not really suited under the weights but is flying and seems to be crying out for the mile.
May's Dream a good chance also, if Fenway didn't flop last time she would have been some chance.
Can't have the Tristarc form personally.
- Apr 26, 2007
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What'd they say with Fenway's last start? It gave absolutely nothing and was the first one beaten. Obviously it wasnt through injury for it to continue the prep?
I read somewhere that she was "in season" but how would you know what impact that has.
Since they offer it as an excuse I guess they think it's a possible justification.
I would've thought they could detect if a mare was in season before she runs. And if she is, and they decide to run, it'd be nice for punters to know.
Seems to be happening a bit lately.
To be frank I wouldn't take any notice of the crap that some stables come up with as an excuse.
Best thing to do is avoid those that failed poorly/dropped out at their previous start, some bounce back and bite you in the ass but in the long run they generally don't come up again that campaign unless there was a genuine excuse, cardiac arrhythmia for example.
- Jan 30, 2013
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Is it just me or has good project come up very short even at the weight. I just don't have GP within 4kg of disposition.
La Passe - do we continue to ignore and let it go to the post untouched at 16s?
Long range forecast on BOM for Derby Day is 27 degrees, 40% chance of rain, possible thunderstorm and northerly winds at 20km-30km. Long way to go I know but best to keep an eye on these things.
The wind was a big factor on a couple of days last year, especially Stakes Day IIRC - needed a smother to win.
Does anyone know which wind directions tend to influence the racing most at Flemington?
The wind was a big factor on a couple of days last year, especially Stakes Day IIRC - needed a smother to win.
Does anyone know which wind directions tend to influence the racing most at Flemington?
- Apr 26, 2007
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Only if it's a quaddie leg, then you spend the night thinking what a dick you are for not chucking her in
yaco55
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Magic Hurricane seems to have come up unders in the McKinnon Stakes - I understand it is still untapped but can't see winning at WFA over 2000m. Contributer is slowly improving but yet to be convinced its come up this preparation.
iluvparis
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John O'Shea - Contributer has been on an upward spiral....just getting ready....
For the Sandown Classic perhaps?
For the Sandown Classic perhaps?
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