Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[IlovethePies]

Yeah, not sure why I held on so long but final straw for me was him trying to correct a poster about Krasnov's opinion about Trump when he had zero idea that Krasnov was Trump...had no idea who Krasnov was, but felt entitled to correct someone else about what Krasnov's thoughts are.

Then when called out on it tries to deflect by saying he gives no ****s about conspiracy theories and says everything he writes is explaining unfolding events.

It's not just that he continually displays he has NFI yet still thinks he is in a position to 'explain unfolding events'; but the fact that he makes ill-informed comment about 'Krasnov', and when it is pointed out he does not even know who Krasnov is, says he does not give a **** about conspiracies not worth discussing/referencing.

Literally comments on a conspiracy theory, despite having no knowledge of that theory, and then defends by saying he does not comment on conspiracies. Despite no knowledge of who Krasnov is, he puts forward his opinion of something that never happened...then defends his incorrect statements of something that never happened by saying everything he writes is explaining unfolding events.

How could I have been "commenting on a conspiracy theory" when I didn't know it even existed?
Yes, I didn't know the latest conspiracy theory about Trump being "Krasnov" because I wasnt up to date with the latest conspiracy posts on social media by some Soviet ex spy nutcase only two days ago.
Lack of knowledge of a recently hatched conspiracy theory is hardly a criterion for judging that I have NFI.
But I leave it to your evident intelligence to determine that.

 

[IlovethePies]

It will be very interesting to find out the details of the deal, if it indeed exists. (There is no certainty that it does.)
But whatever eventuates from here, it is important to bear in mind that it was Zelensky himself who first floated the idea of a "minerals deal" with the US as incentive for more military support.
He just didn't expect, or underestimated, the full nature of the insane psychopathic extortionist with whom he is now "negotiating".

 

[Smeg Head]

I agree, though lithium wasn't a rare earth element as far as I knew

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

It is not, there are massive massive reserves in the chile, peru, bolivia region for example.

Tin is rarer in the earths crust than lots of the 'rare earths' in terms of parts per million.

 

[Aussie in exile]

It is not, there are massive massive reserves in the chile, peru, bolivia region for example.

Tin is rarer in the earths crust than lots of the 'rare earths' in terms of parts per million.

Thanks for that info.

 

[Smeg Head]

Thanks for that info.

And in graph form from wikipedia

 

[IlovethePies]

The United States and its imperialist allies are in a scramble for so-called critical minerals and metals. The US currently has a list of fifty minerals it deems critical. Some, like aluminum or platinum, are relatively well known. Others—such as neodymium, a rare earth, or rhodium, a member of the platinum metal group—are barely known even though they are increasingly vital to the global economy.

Among the fifty critical minerals cited by the US government, what is remarkable is that barely any of them are primarily produced within the United States. Due to a mixture of geology and economics, the US only produces the majority of its supply for five out of the fifty minerals on the list. Twenty-nine of the fifty minerals are 100 percent imported, and forty are 75 percent or more imported.

This reliance of the US on foreign supplies of critical minerals has been a source of deepening worry within the American ruling class

In September 2020, the Trump administration signed into law Executive Order 13953 which declared a national emergency confronting the US in its securing of critical minerals. The order stated, “These minerals are indispensable to our country,” but “we presently lack the capacity to produce them in processed form in the quantities we need"

...this is the context of Trump's extorsion. It is not because he is a madman, but because he is a representative of the most rapacious and reckless sections of the US capitalist class.

 

[Mobbs]

It is not, there are massive massive reserves in the chile, peru, bolivia region for example.

Tin is rarer in the earths crust than lots of the 'rare earths' in terms of parts per million.

I understand & thank you, but what I'm talking about is the actual label of rare earth element - regardless its value, proliferation, importance, demand or any metric at all.

My understanding is that there are some elements in the periodic table which are attributed a specific category know as rare earth elements - and that lithium is not one of them. I don't know a heck of a lot about it tho. I might have to do some googling.

 

[Smeg Head]

I understand & thank you, but what I'm talking about is the actual label of rare earth element - regardless its value, proliferation, importance, demand or any metric at all.

My understanding is that there are some elements in the periodic table which are attributed a specific category know as rare earth elements - and that lithium is not one of them. I don't know a heck of a lot about it tho. I might have to do some googling.

Oh in terms of the more current way of considering rare earths, it comes down to ore concentrations and ease and cost of separation essentially. A lot are very common but not in a big deposit, and they come with a lot of other elements in the ore or minerals that require a complicated refining and separation processes.

In language terms:

The term rare earth was coined when an unusual black rock was unearthed by a miner in Ytterby, Sweden, in 1788. The ore was called “rare” because it had never been seen before and “earth” because that was the 18th-century geological term for rocks that could be dissolved in acid. In 1794 the chemist Johan Gadolin named this previously unknown “earth” yttria, after the town where it was discovered. Over time the mines around Ytterby extracted rocks that yielded four elements named for the town (yttrium, ytterbium, terbium, and erbium).

 

[Mobbs]

Ok so apparently its these (highlighted):


Thanks to AI: Scandium, yttrium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium are among the most commonly discussed rare earth elements due to their critical industrial applications, but the full set of 17 rare earth elements also includes lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium, which, along with the first five, form the lanthanide series plus scandium and yttrium, both of which share similar chemical properties and are often found in the same mineral deposits.

But as I'm saying, I believe Trump is just throwing erroneous terminology out there. Imo HE is talking about such elements as lithium, but just throwing in terms he thinks is right without checking first.

 

[Mobbs]

Oh in terms of the more current way of considering rare earths, it comes down to ore concentrations and ease and cost of separation essentially. A lot are very common but not in a big deposit, and they come with a lot of other elements in the ore or minerals that require a complicated refining and separation processes.

In language terms:

A love react for helping me feel like I'm not insane!

 

[IlovethePies]

Here is the list of 50 minerals that the US government deems to be "critical" :

Federal Register :: Request Access

 

[Jello_B]

Ok so apparently its these (highlighted):
View attachment 2235723

Thanks to AI: Scandium, yttrium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium are among the most commonly discussed rare earth elements due to their critical industrial applications, but the full set of 17 rare earth elements also includes lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, promethium, samarium, europium, gadolinium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium, which, along with the first five, form the lanthanide series plus scandium and yttrium, both of which share similar chemical properties and are often found in the same mineral deposits.

But as I'm saying, I believe Trump is just throwing erroneous terminology out there. Imo HE is talking about such elements as lithium, but just throwing in terms he thinks is right without checking first.

Correct, from memory Nd and Dy are the most useful at the moment, whereas Ce is not. A lot of the time many rare earths are in a deposit together and form a “basket”. They then need to be separated out.

 

[Jello_B]

To reaffirm Li is not a rare earth.

 

[Mobbs]

I don't look at Operator Starsky much these days but I did watch this today and thought it was worth sharing.

 

[IlovethePies]

To reaffirm Li is not a rare earth.

Please explain why this matters in terms of geopolitics. Li is on thelist of 50 critical US minerals, which is all that counts.

 

[Anzacpaul]

Lots of talk this morning that Ukraine and the US are making progress towards a minerals deal.

Seems strange to me as I don't see how it stops Russia from continuing the war, unless Trump has made some shady deal with Putin in the background.

 

[Couch Coach]

 

[Jello_B]

Lots of talk this morning that Ukraine and the US are making progress towards a minerals deal.

Seems strange to me as I don't see how it stops Russia from continuing the war, unless Trump has made some shady deal with Putin in the background.

I think it gets US boots on the ground.
Putin gets to keep land.
No NATO for Ukraine.
US presence in Ukraine to oversee extraction of minerals and provide security deterrent to Russia. I didn’t think Russia would agree to that, maybe they are getting something in return, like removal of sanctions.

Alternatively it could be US gets access to minerals, US keeps funding and supplying Ukraine to defend itself, and war continues.

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

I think it gets US boots on the ground.

US presence in Ukraine to oversee extraction of minerals and provide security deterrent to Russia. I didn’t think Russia would agree to that, maybe they are getting something in return, like removal of sanctions.

Alternatively it could be US gets access to minerals, US keeps funding and supplying Ukraine to defend itself, and war continues.

I think what ever presence US has in Ukraine will be severely limited and would be subject to withdrawal on "budget constraints". Trump would probably abandon any US citizen of military personnel if left behind in a withdrawal.

 

[Jello_B]

I think what ever presence US has in Ukraine will be severely limited and would be subject to withdrawal on "budget constraints". Trump would probably abandon any US citizen of military personnel if left behind in a withdrawal.

Trump will have to sell it to his constituents, if he can demonstrate (even if it’s not that real) that they are getting a return, ie access to necessary minerals, I think he will get support to have people on the ground.
I still think this whole proposal is a bit of a mess so my posts are not implying my support more observational than anything.
I’m still unsure if Putin would tolerate US forces in Ukraine. I’m also unsure if Europe would agree to any of these outcomes.

 

[swingdog]

Lots of talk this morning that Ukraine and the US are making progress towards a minerals deal.

Seems strange to me as I don't see how it stops Russia from continuing the war, unless Trump has made some shady deal with Putin in the background.

It's apparently a two-part agreement - this first part is a framework to have an agreement. The second part is where the details are sorted.

That's where Zelensky is seeking security guarantees, which makes sense. What would the US get out of an agreement to mine rare earths if the mines can't be protected?

 

[Jbudds04v2]

It's apparently a two-part agreement - this first part is a framework to have an agreement. The second part is where the details are sorted.

That's where Zelensky is seeking security guarantees, which makes sense. What would the US get out of an agreement to mine rare earths if the mines can't be protected?

Am I right in thinking that many of these rare earths are in Russian occupied territory? Therefore Ukraine might be open to this arrangement with the US to get some of that land back? And if a profit share agreement then a way of increasing income to help rebuild?

 

[CD Xbow]

Lyin' Lavrov says Russia will not permit European peacekeepers in Ukraine. Lavrov earlier said there would be no talk of territorial concessions to Ukraine. So no NATO, no Euopean peacekeepers and no return of land. The barbarians are probably keeping the kiddies too. Russia want it all, there will be no concession by them. So without proper security guarantees for Ukraine I can't see Ukraine accepting any deal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-rules-out-any-options-european-peacekeepers-ukraine-2025-02-26/

More Lyin' Lavrov, he suffered a hissy fit in a meeting in Malta and did the usual Russian response of threatening escalation. https://www.afr.com/world/europe/bl...n-ukraine-at-meeting-in-malta-20241206-p5kwfx

 

[Mobbs]

Lyin' Lavrov says Russia will not permit European peacekeepers in Ukraine. Lavrov earlier said there would be no talk of territorial concessions to Ukraine. So no NATO, no Euopean peacekeepers and no return of land. The barbarians are probably keeping the kiddies too. Russia want it all, there will be no concession by them. So without proper security guarantees for Ukraine I can't see Ukraine accepting any deal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-rules-out-any-options-european-peacekeepers-ukraine-2025-02-26/

More Lyin' Lavrov, he suffered a hissy fit in a meeting in Malta and did the usual Russian response of threatening escalation. https://www.afr.com/world/europe/bl...n-ukraine-at-meeting-in-malta-20241206-p5kwfx

Peskov also doubled down on how all currently occupied territories were to stay part of Russia.

 

[CD Xbow]

Peskov also doubled down on how all currently occupied territories were to stay part of Russia.

Not much of a deal on offer for Ukraine. I think Lavrovs hissy fit is because they have been blindsided by Trumps mineral deal and President Z offering to resign if Ukraine can join NATO. I don't think these were part of the script. I expect the usual ramping up of the Russians escalatory rhetoric.