Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Rayzorwire]

There is?

We live in a social media age where a thousand incorrect things an hour are fired out into the cybersphere. One in a thousand will be proven right over time, but until then they're all just rumours, innuendo, mistakes or invention.

Oh they have an algorithm for that? Could you get any more ridiculous?

Database actually.

Do you think they're not intimately connected to Iranian intelligence?

 

[Rayzorwire]

(I'm just joshing)

Was so much funnier due to how much it surprised me.

 

[mcnulty]

We live in a social media age where a thousand incorrect things an hour are fired out into the cybersphere. One in a thousand will be proven right over time, but until then they're all just rumours, innuendo, mistakes or invention.

So no, they don’t.

Do you think they're not intimately connected to Iranian intelligence?

So you think the Iranians are discriminate? Even though they’re getting everyone else to do their dirty work (and dying) for them.

You‘re hilarious

 

[Visions]

So it wasn't until they decided they wanted Black Sea access and a lot of arable land that they invaded Ukraine... ?

Yeah that NATO threat bro.

Multiple countries already but Ukraine SAYS that they MIGHT join and that's just TOO FAR!

The trillions of dollars in gas and oil reserves off the coast of Crimea had nothing to do with it either!!!!!

 

[Sir_Loin]

So no, they don’t.


So you think the Iranians are discriminate? Even though they’re getting everyone else to do their dirty work (and dying) for them.

You‘re hilarious

Poor HAMAS and Hezbollah. Biden made them do it

 

[Bloods86]

Sure is, but if I was a Ukranian, I'd probably prefer something like the effort they'd make to defend Israel.

How about you?

Why does the UK and US' pledge to defend Israel directly involve their warships and planes, while their pledge to Ukraine only involves a hands-off, we ain't getting directly involved approach?

Are Ukrainians less important than Israeli's? Don't deserve as much help?

What's the angle here? I'm genuinely asking in good faith for your perspective.

IDK, if I had to spend about half a second thinking about it, I'd say they don't want to make security guarantees for a country currently being invaded by a nuclear power.

Is that happening to Israel?

Clearly Russia's military is much less intimidating to NATO now that they've seen their struggles against Ukraine, but it's wise not to get involved in a direct conflict with them.

 

[Rayzorwire]

One of Irans best buddies condemning Israel’s response to the Iran backed Hamas’ indiscriminate massacre of their civilians might have “reigned Netanyahu in”.

The reasons he hasn't gone harder on Netanyahu are numerous, but at the top of the list is that apparently it would greatly anger some very powerful Russian Jews and he can't afford to put them off-side.

And of course, every bit of distraction toward Netanyahu's excesses and in US commitments being diverted elsewhere makes his task in Ukraine easier.

 

[Bloods86]

The Russian people don't want NATO missiles any closer than they already are. It's a political reality the current and any future Russian leaders have to accept.

Maybe if they had anything approaching a free press, or democratic elections, they could be better informed than you, and vote out the guys who are moving Russia's borders closer to NATO members, and giving prior abstentions like Finland a highly justifiable reason to join.

 

[mcnulty]

The reasons he hasn't gone harder on Netanyahu are numerous, but at the top of the list is that apparently it would greatly anger some very powerful Russian Jews and he can't afford to put them off-side.

And of course, every bit of distraction toward Netanyahu's excesses and in US commitments being diverted elsewhere makes his task in Ukraine easier.

It’s a moot point. There’s simply no way Netanyahu would be swayed by whatever Putin said after October 7.

Not to mention how ridiculous Putin would look, up to his waist in Russian and Ukrainian blood trying to “reign Israel in”.

 

[Rayzorwire]

There you go again setting up a strawman. From your own referenced article.

“The overall military potential of the United States and its NATO allies is so much greater than that of Russia that there is no reason to doubt the West’s ability to defeat any conceivable Russian military even assuming that Russia fully absorbs Ukraine and Belarus”.

The Estonian paper is even more bullish about how Russia is gonna get its arse kicked.

Which is why the disastrous admissions in there which I highlighted are all the more startling.

These are agencies designed to churn out patriotic hopium and those admissions about Russia's capabilities are red flags the size of tents to any knowledgeable reader.

Not to mention the other admissions, like that only stealth aircraft can reliably penetrate Russia's airspace...while no doubt the Western media theme for the next few months will continue to be...'if only Ukraine had those F-16's it would make so much difference' or some such twaddle.

 

[Rayzorwire]

It’s a moot point. There’s simply no way Netanyahu would be swayed by what Putin said after October 7.

Didn't say he would be swayed, simply that Putin's moral character is on clear display when he chooses to not act speak out more strongly against Israel's actions, or support the Palestinians more.

Interestingly, the only statement from Russia on the Houthi's is one of condemnation, which is a great example of Russia's complex international relations.

Yes, Russia and Iran have very solid ties and common interests, but here Russia's iron-clad desire to uphold international shipping law for the sake of its own interests outweighs any notion of solidarity with Iran or its proxy.

 

[mcnulty]

Didn't say he would be swayed

Yeah you did.

he's done infinitely less than he could have to reign in Netanyahu and support the Palestinians

Or do you think you can reign someone in without swaying them

 

[Jamolad]

[snip]

You do get that it's irrelevant whether you or I regard NATO as a threat, don't you?

It's also largely irrelevant whether Putin does.

The Russian people, as expressed on every level from political to artistic, have felt increasingly threatened over the last decades by NATO missiles aimed at them creeping always closer.

Any Russian leader - Putin our whoever deposes him tomorrow in the West's dreams - would have to go against the overwhelming will of the Russian people to allow NATO bases in Ukraine even closer to Russia's borders and further encircling them.

The Russian people don't want NATO missiles any closer than they already are. It's a political reality the current and any future Russian leaders have to accept.

Now, whether or not the Russian people have been fed this idea of NATO being a hostile entity through well crafted state propaganda is another matter entirely - and I suspect I know what your feelings would be on that.

The fact is though, they do feel that way.

So if Putin's war with Ukraine is all about preventing NATO getting closer to Russia, he lost the war April last year when Finland became the 31st member of the NATO alliance, putting NATO even closer to his home town of St Petersburg than if Ukraine had joined NATO.

So he should just pack it in - should have packed it in middle of last year. No matter what happens with Ukraine from here, NATO cannot get any closer to Russia than they now already are, which is closer than they were before he started a war to keep them away. His actions to keep NATO away has resulted in NATO being even closer than he was trying to prevent - and he cannot undo that.

He has failed the Russian people who don't want NATO missiles any closer than they already were. It's a political reality the current Russian leader has to accept.

Guess he is fighting on so that people can fill out a form in Russian language to register their car in Ukraine?

 

[Visions]

Another day, another Russian factory plant exploding and catching fire.

Was it the Ukrainians, was it smoking Igor, was it the result of a 3rd world country with lax maintenance programs? Who knows?

The only thing we do know for sure is that a Russian firefighter is a busier occupation than an orc soldier getting pummeled on the front line in Avdiivka.

 

[Jamolad]

[snip]
It's a sad thing.

Finland was always an invaluable mediator and partner for de-escalation throughout the Cold War.

They've changed their policy because that's what their government wanted. Russia the modern state is infinitely less threatening to Finland than the USSR was.

Ponder that.

They changed their policy because that's what their government wanted. Their decision making was based on observations, data and modelling that you and I don't have, and that information led to them determining the modern state of Russia poses so much more of an increased threat to Finland than the USSR was, hence them dropping their long-standing neutrality stance to having to seek NATO protection from the Russian threat.

If not the Russian threat, then why do you think Finland thought it necessary to join NATO last year?

 

[Rayzorwire]

Or do you think you can reign someone in without swaying them

I have no idea how you've managed to become so bogged down in semantics following me criticising Putin's lack of action, but think about it, Putin has any number of levers he could use to modify Netanyahu's behaviour and future conduct.

For starters, according to analysis' I've read and judged the best I can find, it will very likely be China and Russia's votes which decide whether or not Israel escapes justice at the ICJ.

Putin has a massive diplomatic lever there, as does Xi, FWIW.

Then there's Russia's military assets in Syria and the region generally. Not to mention Putin effectively saves Israel's arse every day he's been in office by refusing to arm any of Israel's enemies with the means to destroy it.

He's also been strictly in line with USSR policy by refusing to arm or supply (at least directly and we have no credible evidence of them doing so covertly) non-state actors in the region.

 

[Rayzorwire]

So if Putin's war with Ukraine is all about preventing NATO getting closer to Russia, he lost the war April last year when Finland became the 31st member of the NATO alliance, putting NATO even closer to his home town of St Petersburg than if Ukraine had joined NATO.

It's a strategic loss for them, no doubt about it, forces them to station significant forces there.

But I would argue, it's also really a strategic loss for NATO if its real objective is peace.

That border just becomes yet another 'hot spot' where things could go south very quickly by intention or accident.

He has failed the Russian people who don't want NATO missiles any closer than they already were.

Not if he wins - I guess we can only conclude that is his calculation.

Guess he is fighting on so that people can fill out a form in Russian language to register their car in Ukraine?

Are you against Australia having these kind of facilities, so people who don't speak English aren't disadvantaged?

 

[Rayzorwire]

They changed their policy because that's what their government wanted. Their decision making was based on observations, data and modelling that you and I don't have, and that information led to them determining the modern state of Russia poses so much more of an increased threat to Finland than the USSR was, hence them dropping their long-standing neutrality stance to having to seek NATO protection from the Russian threat.

If not the Russian threat, then why do you think Finland thought it necessary to join NATO last year?

There's a lot of group-think along neo-liberal lines in Europe ATM, I really just saw the changes in Finland as a part of that general movement.

Unfortunately, across Europe (not Finland from my understanding of the situation there) the tide is now turning away from neo-liberal style governments in a number of places to right-wing nationalism, which may well be worse for the people of the union, perhaps even the union itself in the medium to long term.

The European people, like the American people, are heartily sick of their lives getting worse while politicians and business tycoons laugh all the way to Davos and effectively tell their constituents to suck it up.

 

[Jamolad]

It's a strategic loss for them, no doubt about it, forces them to station significant forces there.

But I would argue, it's also really a strategic loss for NATO if its real objective is peace.

That border just becomes yet another 'hot spot' where things could go south very quickly by intention or accident.

Re forcing Russia to station significant forces there, you'd think so but they haven't, have they? JohnTravoltaWhere.gif

Why not?

Re Finland becoming another potential hotspot, I'd say Finland becomes one more country that Russia now won't invade as Russia cannot afford to attack a NATO member. Unlike Ukraine, which is currently a bit of a hotspot where things have gone south.

Not if he wins - I guess we can only conclude that is his calculation.

How can he 'win' if it is now impossible for him to achieve his objective - he set out to prevent NATO getting closer to Russia's key cities; even if he were to route and occupy all of Ukraine it does not change that NATO are closer than what he tried to prevent, and there is no way for him to undo that. Or do you see him somehow convincing Finland to leave NATO?

Are you against Australia having these kind of facilities, so people who don't speak English aren't disadvantaged?

No, not at all - I was taking the piss out of the notion that the invasion was about Russian language, because NATO and language are the two things you've been most vocal about last day or so, and I think it is irrefutable that the Finland/NATO result is a spectacular fail for Russia

 

[Zidane98]

The trillions of dollars in gas and oil reserves off the coast of Crimea had nothing to do with it either!!!!!

Never mind the fact that Putin had a lease until 2042 on Sevastopol.

All Putin had to do was not behave like a fascist madman and respect the agreements Russia had already made with Ukraine and it was his to use.

 

[Jamolad]

There's a lot of group-think along neo-liberal lines in Europe ATM, I really just saw the changes in Finland as a part of that general movement.

I am certain Finland were very clear about why they joined NATO - they specifically cited Russia's attack on Ukraine, they did not mention going with the neo-liberal vibes coming from others in Europe.

Choosing to assume it was part of a general movement is very lazy for someone that likes to boast of research, when you can read their official statements detailing explicitly why they joined NATO...they are readily available

 

[Rayzorwire]

Or, Finland becomes another country that Russia now won't invade as Russia cannot afford to attack a NATO member.

I honestly don't think Russia had any intention of attacking a NATO member prior to Ukraine, I really couldn't say the same thing with the same surety now.

We're well into 'all bets are off the table' territory, although it really is fascinating to read theories like the reason Russia has left Ukraine's rail network so intact is that there's a gentleman's agreement between Russia and the West that the rare earth continues to move west.

China and Russia have the West over a barrel when it comes to rare earths which are crucial to our economies and advanced technologies, but the flow has never been interrupted in the slightest.

As for forcing Russia to station significant forces there, you'd think so but they haven't, have they? JohnTravoltaWhere.gif

There are very firm plans afoot (Kagan alludes to them in the ISW article), obviously nothing is going to happen overnight - on the other side of the border either.

How can he 'win' if it is now impossible for him to achieve his objective - he set out to prevent NATO getting closer to Russia's key cities; even if he were to route occupy all of Ukraine it does not change that NATO are closer than what he tried to prevent, and there is no way for him to undo that. Or do you see him somehow convincing Finland to leave NATO?

As I said before, how close a NATO country is matters way less to Russia than whether or not they have offensive nuke capable bases.

The reason the Baltic states do not currently have nuke capable missile bases is because NATO agreed to not go there. Lets hope they never do.

No, not at all - I was taking the piss out of the notion that the invasion was about Russian language, because NATO and language are the two things you've been most vocal about last day or so, and I think it is irrefutable that the Finland/NATO result is a spectacular fail for Russia

No worries.

FWIW, for a few days now I haven't really had the chance to post anything but replies, so I'm not really setting the topics.

There are aspects of the conflict I'd much rather discuss than ancient history stuff.

 

[Sir_Loin]

I am certain Finland were very clear about why they joined NATO - they specifically cited Russia's attack on Ukraine, they did not mention going with the neo-liberal vibes coming from others in Europe

I think they were specifically concerned about losing more territory to Russia in line with what they lost in WW2.

A totally reasonable and justifiable concern to have given the invasion of Ukraine. I just don’t understand this argument that it’s libs fault this happened.

 

[Rayzorwire]

I am certain Finland were very clear about why they joined NATO - they specifically cited Russia's attack on Ukraine, they did not mention going with the neo-liberal vibes coming from others in Europe

The neo-liberal government currently running Finland were very clear about why they joined.

I agree, it was the Russian invasion.

 

[Chief]

But I would argue, it's also really a strategic loss for NATO if its real objective is peace.

That border just becomes yet another 'hot spot' where things could go south very quickly by intention or accident.

But you know Russia would be the cause, yeah?

Sorry Rayzor but you seem to have a very well constructed scaffolding of victim blaming going on around most of your points.