Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Jello_B]

Another day, another Russian factory plant exploding and catching fire.

Was it the Ukrainians, was it smoking Igor, was it the result of a 3rd world country with lax maintenance programs? Who knows?

The only thing we do know for sure is that a Russian firefighter is a busier occupation than an orc soldier getting pummeled on the front line in Avdiivka.

It seems that you are making a joke of this, but you realise those 9 people injured in the fire are just your general civilians going to work each day and trying to feed their family. Not everyone in Russia is an “orc”.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Yer but that ain’t going to happen so something more realistic needs to be developed to stop the war, or elect to keep fighting. It’s a waste of time.
You can’t go into a negotiation with your anchor being “I’ll pay you $10 for that Porsche 911”.

Well, you can if it was your Porsche in the first place.

In fact, I'll apply the three demands to your scenario as well, and they all seem reasonable there too.

1. Return the stolen Porsche
2. Pay for damage inflicted on the car whilst the theft was happening
3. Prosecute the thieves

 

[Jello_B]

Well, you can if it was your Porsche in the first place.

In fact, I'll apply the three demands to your scenario as well, and they all seem reasonable there too.

1. Return the stolen Porsche
2. Pay for damage inflicted on the car whilst the theft was happening
3. Prosecute the thieves

Haha not bad mate

 

[Visions]

It seems that you are making a joke of this, but you realise those 9 people injured in the fire are just your general civilians going to work each day and trying to feed their family. Not everyone in Russia is an “orc”.

Where did I call those Russian workers "orcs"?

 

[Rayzorwire]

But you know Russia would be the cause, yeah?

Sorry Rayzor but you seem to have a very well constructed scaffolding of victim blaming going on around most of your points.

I'm actually coming at the conflict wholly through a peace perspective - I want the dying to end and I spent a lot of years hoping things wouldn't end up where they have.

The Ukranian people are undeniably the victims in the conflict. No question whatsoever.

But as someone who has followed the history of the region quite closely for decades, I can't really surgically remove from my brain all the instances from pre-Russian invasion where I thought the Ukranian government was acting in a way which harmed, rather than helped their people.

We all retain the right to criticise our own government as a fundamental part of democracy, I don't see Ukraine's democratic government as any different just because they're at war.

I read with sadness in the lead-up to Poroshenko's election that the main reason a lot of people were voting for him was that their political system had become so corrupt, the theory was that if they elected a billionaire president, he would steal less from the treasury than other alternatives.

I read of Zelensky's rise with cautious optimism and I was not surprised at all when the Western reaction to a TV star who exposed and fought government corruption becoming president was mostly more along the lines of 'Wow! Those wacky Ukranians!' than anything deeper.

I watched on with dismay as his twin core election promises - an end to the fighting in the Donbass and a serious crackdown on corruption - fizzled away into no peace (not his personal fault for a multitude of reasons) and him getting named in the Panama Papers with offshore holdings (most definitely his fault), resulting in him having an approval rating down in the 20's in the months leading up to the war.

IMO, it's a legitimate position to be 100% on the side of the average Ukranian citizen (which I most certainly am), but not spare their government past or present of criticism which they deserve(d).

For example, if Zelensky and/or whoever succeeds him insist forever that it's Crimea back and Putin on trial in The Hague or no peace talks and neither is ever gonna happen, do we speak out of moral conscience against this position if it seems like it will very likely threaten Ukraine's existence as a nation, or just cause endless, ongoing losses?

Can a government be seen as a "victim" in the sense that the people dying and suffering are?

Beyond all criticism or question as such?

 

[awaremind]

They changed their policy because that's what their government wanted. Their decision making was based on observations, data and modelling that you and I don't have, and that information led to them determining the modern state of Russia poses so much more of an increased threat to Finland than the USSR was, hence them dropping their long-standing neutrality stance to having to seek NATO protection from the Russian threat.

If not the Russian threat, then why do you think Finland thought it necessary to join NATO last year?

Maybe their politicians are about as out of touch with reality as our ones are and they don’t realise that by signing up to Nato it just means they are more likely to get nuked should it ever come to that. Russia is clearly not strong enough to attack a non core importance region like Finland conventionally.

 

[Chief]

For example, if Zelensky and/or whoever succeeds him insist forever that it's Crimea back and Putin on trial in The Hague or no peace talks and neither is ever gonna happen, do we speak out of moral conscience against this position if it seems like it will very likely threaten Ukraine's existence as a nation, or just cause endless, ongoing losses?

Can a government be seen as a "victim" in the sense that the people dying and suffering are?

Beyond all criticism or question as such?

You've watched it more closely than I have, no doubt, but I can't see any point at which Putin has used peace talks or treaties as anything but breathing room to gather strength for his next attack.

So, fight now or fight later, Putin will go to war to take what he wants to build his empire. Giving away part of the country will just buy time until he demands more.

What is better for Ukrainians? Merge with Russia or orient more towards the West?

 

[Bloods86]

What is better for Ukrainians? Merge with Russia or orient more towards the West?

Given the targeting of civilians, kidnapping of children, rapes, massacres and extensive mining efforts, I don't think there's much debate over this in Ukraine.

 

[Mobbs]

Hi Jello_B . I'll have a look at your post - yes I remember your investment in the topic. Happy to offer my thoughts.

Hey there mate, I’m interested in your view on a couple of their talking points. By the way I’ll declare my conflict and knowledge as I have family from both regions.
As far as I’m aware and why I find the discussion worthwhile is the following:
Ukraine did try and change the language in eastern Ukraine. I don’t see this as a big deal, but they did it.
NATO have “defensive” arsenal positioned “close enough” to Russia, and the comparison to the US reaction to Cuba is reasonable.
Russia did suggest their joining of NATO and were “laughed off”. Imagine if that had happened.
The coup or whatever did happen, anyone can agree or disagree on why it happened, and personally what I have read I think it was just, but it happened.
Russia have offered to negotiate, albeit they want to keep their claimed territories, but is is Ukraine who are not willing.
From what I know of Russia, yes the people feel the sanctions but they adapt. People from Australia (of which sadly we are under the thumb of the US for good and bad), will struggle to understand that the Russians would rather eat dirt then submit to the West. The sanctions won’t dissuade them. People on here saying this that and the other about Russians without understanding their psyche come from a different culture.

Language change in eastern Ukraine - I have no knowledge of any actual attempted language change in eastern Ukraine. My one friend from Luhansk region speaks Russian, I don't even know if she speaks Ukrainian as well. I think she lives in Georgia now (definitely not in Luhansk for many years). I originally believed her intimations about a Ukrainian missile attack on her town when she was a child but then she started ranting about nazis and I realised she was just a product of conditioning. I do know that Ukraine shifted nationally to recognising Ukrainian as the national language but not to the detriment of other languages. Nobody I know in/from Ukraine doesn't speak Russian, but Ukrainian is their more natural language, with Russian and Serzhik almost parallel due to natural crossover. Most popular music from Ukraine is in Russian language because - well, reach for sales. A friend from Bila Tserkva spoke Russian on a par with Ukrainian, entirely pro-Ukraine btw. Tatar languages (I think there were 3 most known ones?) still exist but are almost eradicated now due to Russian occupation of Crimea - though there is still some attempt at preservation mainly through online efforts.

Re NATO (not my wheelhouse really but) yes of course NATO would freak out Russia if Russia had intentions to be aggressive. I mean, NATO "moving" isn't a weird perspective. Nations join NATO, NATO doesn't seek them out, but if that's the terminology we're using, then Russia moved NATO closer to Russia by moving its border from the east side of Belarus to the west side, for example. RF used to claim that NATO had bases inside Ukraine. When they were asked to define where exactly, they stopped claiming it.

Didn't know Russia ever mentioned joining NATO, neither seriously nor churlishly.

Don't agree a coup happened - call it semantics if you want but a coup is when one vessel of control ousts another vessel of control and takes power. The change of government came about through protests at the population level. Agreed the blokes in charge had no choice but to relinquish their control. It's just not a coup.

RF have on occasions offered some options under the descriptor of peace negotiations. As you say, recently they are built around keeping currently occupied territory. Ukraine reject these because a) why should Ukraine give up territory currently occupied by an invading force? and b) this is exactly what Russia has done many times before and it's always been followed later by another land grab. Can it be different this time? Perhaps, as this is the the first time that pretty much the entire international community sat up and took any notice. But Dugin still has Putin's ear. Ukraine have been willing to negotiate too, but they demand the rectification of the Russian territorial crimes. I don't think peace will come until either RF actually stops attacking or if Ukraine surrenders. Neither seem likely short or medium term. RF don't want humiliation and Ukraine do want to continue to exist.

Agree that Russians will adapt. Obviously each individual is different - I have one friend in Altay who line-for-line sounds like Solovyov, and another south of Moscow who is outwardly spoken anti-war and how he's not in jail or conscripted I have no idea. Most say they survive and make very clear deflections about war topics with faint hints to give me their perspective (when they are anti-). I rarely ask such friends direct questions because they could be jailed for answering them, Brateevo style. We have ways of exchanging info but I don't trust even Bigfooty to be safe from the machinery of the RF's witch hunts.

I do ask about access to essential and non-essential needs and its variable, goes up and down. RF does get hit by sanctions, then the vendors find ways to cope - usually sourcing alternate paths by which to import the same sanctioned goods. In one town where I have a contact, they have coca cola on the supermarket shelf - it's imported from Kazakhstan. Sugar was a problem 2 years ago. Haven't heard much recently. Goes up and down. Plane fares and fuel are probably the ones everyone tells me are problematic.

There are problems with infrastructure and local government funding (not helped by smalltown crime and corruption). Bushfires are now difficult to prevent / counter. Buildings needing repair are left unrepaired. Etc etc. But general goods seem to be accessible in general.

One point re all the fires and building collapses and crap road maintenance and planes crashing and drunk young dads rolling over onto their newborns and smothering them in their sleep and literal coal smelters at residential level to heat a home in a world where we have electricity - these are all true, but they were true prior the war too. Rural Russia has been playing catch-up a long long time. No, I lie. Russia have been in a position where they should have been playing catch-up for a long long time. The quality of roads is absolutely abominable. Small town crooks in government, mostly to blame. Yes, resources are stretched thinner now. Component parts are less available or of poorer quality or more expensive. Skilled staff are less available due to mobilisation and the great scarpers of 2022 and afterwards. Most friends live in pissy little krushchevka apartments and don't even work for the most part! Well I know a veterinarian and a nail technician and some musicians and one who works on the family produce farm.

I remember the first major anti-war protests of Feb/Mar 2022 when i was texting friends who were at the protests yelling at them to get out of there now as the walloppers were collecting people en masse. Fortunately every one of them responded later and confirmed they had already seen warning signs at the protests and procured their own safety. They still whisper to me about their hate for what their nation is doing, and the hopelessness of their situation, but it has to be very careful or else back to Brateevo they go. Mostly people try not to mention the war - for their own safety.

Just about "submit to the west". I don't agree. I do agree Russians would rather eat dirt than many concessions, but inserting a hatred for the west is ... it's a yes and no. There is a joke in Russia where they say in the same breath "**** USA" and "I want a greencard". It's just people being people. Re sanctions not dissuading them - it depends. I don't think the hit-home difficulties caused by sanctions will dissuade a russian. All they need is money for drugs / alcohol and tattoos and sanctions do not effect either of these. But some are dissuaded due to understanding the reasons why the sanctions are in effect.

Yeah that's a long diatribe. Apologies for the length of the reply. Btw nobody I know is actually in either military so I can't assist with any of that. I do have a friend in a civilian Ukrainian town that got bombed by RF in the recent wave though apparently they were not there at the time. Again I don't give locations in order to protect my friends. The walls have ears.

 

[Crankyhawk]

It seems that you are making a joke of this, but you realise those 9 people injured in the fire are just your general civilians going to work each day and trying to feed their family. Not everyone in Russia is an “orc”.

Huh he didn’t insult the civilian, the joke was around the “smoker” starting a fire (previous speculation around I think ammo dump explosions) and saying Russian firefighters are busier than orc soldiers

 

[Profop]

I’m not sure why there’s all this concern about missiles edging closer. Pretty sure any of the NATO nations with nuclear submarines could already hit any major Russian city if they wanted to

 

[Mobbs]

I find it harder to share stuff I learn about nowadays due to being made a Sweet FA captain recently. Up at 4am for sim footy tasks, leaves little time for the tragedies in the real world

There had recently been an uptick in tensions in Bashkortostan where there are often moves to push a separation from the Russian Federation and new independent nation for the Bashkir people. If you know someone in Ufa, then you have a sense of where Bashkortostan is. (A bit east of Kazan which is generally known as the centre of Tatarstan).

It's always a weird one because their "spiritual" leader is far removed from Bashkortostan, but those who are pro-independence are quite committed to the cause.

In Bashkortostan, the confrontation between security forces and citizens supporting activist Fail Alsynov continues, - RosSMI
Stun grenades and tear gas were used against the protesters; demonstrators responded by throwing snow at the security forces.
Eyewitnesses told reporters that they noticed vehicles of the Russian Guard carrying reinforcements. Protesters prevent a paddy wagon from taking Alsynov away from the courthouse.

Later reports do suggest that the clashes have since died down.

Link from [GORN TG]

 

[Jello_B]

Hi Jello_B . I'll have a look at your post - yes I remember your investment in the topic. Happy to offer my thoughts.



Language change in eastern Ukraine - I have no knowledge of any actual attempted language change in eastern Ukraine. My one friend from Luhansk region speaks Russian, I don't even know if she speaks Ukrainian as well. I think she lives in Georgia now (definitely not in Luhansk for many years). I originally believed her intimations about a Ukrainian missile attack on her town when she was a child but then she started ranting about nazis and I realised she was just a product of conditioning. I do know that Ukraine shifted nationally to recognising Ukrainian as the national language but not to the detriment of other languages. Nobody I know in/from Ukraine doesn't speak Russian, but Ukrainian is their more natural language, with Russian and Serzhik almost parallel due to natural crossover. Most popular music from Ukraine is in Russian language because - well, reach for sales. A friend from Bila Tserkva spoke Russian on a par with Ukrainian, entirely pro-Ukraine btw. Tatar languages (I think there were 3 most known ones?) still exist but are almost eradicated now due to Russian occupation of Crimea - though there is still some attempt at preservation mainly through online efforts.

Re NATO (not my wheelhouse really but) yes of course NATO would freak out Russia if Russia had intentions to be aggressive. I mean, NATO "moving" isn't a weird perspective. Nations join NATO, NATO doesn't seek them out, but if that's the terminology we're using, then Russia moved NATO closer to Russia by moving its border from the east side of Belarus to the west side, for example. RF used to claim that NATO had bases inside Ukraine. When they were asked to define where exactly, they stopped claiming it.

Didn't know Russia ever mentioned joining NATO, neither seriously nor churlishly.

Don't agree a coup happened - call it semantics if you want but a coup is when one vessel of control ousts another vessel of control and takes power. The change of government came about through protests at the population level. Agreed the blokes in charge had no choice but to relinquish their control. It's just not a coup.

RF have on occasions offered some options under the descriptor of peace negotiations. As you say, recently they are built around keeping currently occupied territory. Ukraine reject these because a) why should Ukraine give up territory currently occupied by an invading force? and b) this is exactly what Russia has done many times before and it's always been followed later by another land grab. Can it be different this time? Perhaps, as this is the the first time that pretty much the entire international community sat up and took any notice. But Dugin still has Putin's ear. Ukraine have been willing to negotiate too, but they demand the rectification of the Russian territorial crimes. I don't think peace will come until either RF actually stops attacking or if Ukraine surrenders. Neither seem likely short or medium term. RF don't want humiliation and Ukraine do want to continue to exist.

Agree that Russians will adapt. Obviously each individual is different - I have one friend in Altay who line-for-line sounds like Solovyov, and another south of Moscow who is outwardly spoken anti-war and how he's not in jail or conscripted I have no idea. Most say they survive and make very clear deflections about war topics with faint hints to give me their perspective (when they are anti-). I rarely ask such friends direct questions because they could be jailed for answering them, Brateevo style. We have ways of exchanging info but I don't trust even Bigfooty to be safe from the machinery of the RF's witch hunts.

I do ask about access to essential and non-essential needs and its variable, goes up and down. RF does get hit by sanctions, then the vendors find ways to cope - usually sourcing alternate paths by which to import the same sanctioned goods. In one town where I have a contact, they have coca cola on the supermarket shelf - it's imported from Kazakhstan. Sugar was a problem 2 years ago. Haven't heard much recently. Goes up and down. Plane fares and fuel are probably the ones everyone tells me are problematic.

There are problems with infrastructure and local government funding (not helped by smalltown crime and corruption). Bushfires are now difficult to prevent / counter. Buildings needing repair are left unrepaired. Etc etc. But general goods seem to be accessible in general.

One point re all the fires and building collapses and crap road maintenance and planes crashing and drunk young dads rolling over onto their newborns and smothering them in their sleep and literal coal smelters at residential level to heat a home in a world where we have electricity - these are all true, but they were true prior the war too. Rural Russia has been playing catch-up a long long time. No, I lie. Russia have been in a position where they should have been playing catch-up for a long long time. The quality of roads is absolutely abominable. Small town crooks in government, mostly to blame. Yes, resources are stretched thinner now. Component parts are less available or of poorer quality or more expensive. Skilled staff are less available due to mobilisation and the great scarpers of 2022 and afterwards. Most friends live in pissy little krushchevka apartments and don't even work for the most part! Well I know a veterinarian and a nail technician and some musicians and one who works on the family produce farm.

I remember the first major anti-war protests of Feb/Mar 2022 when i was texting friends who were at the protests yelling at them to get out of there now as the walloppers were collecting people en masse. Fortunately every one of them responded later and confirmed they had already seen warning signs at the protests and procured their own safety. They still whisper to me about their hate for what their nation is doing, and the hopelessness of their situation, but it has to be very careful or else back to Brateevo they go. Mostly people try not to mention the war - for their own safety.

Just about "submit to the west". I don't agree. I do agree Russians would rather eat dirt than many concessions, but inserting a hatred for the west is ... it's a yes and no. There is a joke in Russia where they say in the same breath "* USA" and "I want a greencard". It's just people being people. Re sanctions not dissuading them - it depends. I don't think the hit-home difficulties caused by sanctions will dissuade a russian. All they need is money for drugs / alcohol and tattoos and sanctions do not effect either of these. But some are dissuaded due to understanding the reasons why the sanctions are in effect.

Yeah that's a long diatribe. Apologies for the length of the reply. Btw nobody I know is actually in either military so I can't assist with any of that. I do have a friend in a civilian Ukrainian town that got bombed by RF in the recent wave though apparently they were not there at the time. Again I don't give locations in order to protect my friends. The walls have ears.

Great post and sincerely appreciate it. I had a family member on the way to their office not long ago, that was hit with a missile before the day started. Dodged a literal bullet and got the day off work

 

[Jello_B]

Huh he didn’t insult the civilian, the joke was around the “smoker” starting a fire (previous speculation around I think ammo dump explosions) and saying Russian firefighters are busier than orc soldiers

Yer all good, just noticed a tone towards civilian buildings / infrastructure being damaged. Obviously this is nowhere near as bad as Russia launching a missile and killing innocents in Ukraine, but nonetheless, it’s poor taste in my opinion to be joking about civilians anywhere being hurt.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Yer all good, just noticed a tone towards civilian buildings / infrastructure being damaged. Obviously this is nowhere near as bad as Russia launching a missile and killing innocents in Ukraine, but nonetheless, it’s poor taste in my opinion to be joking about civilians anywhere being hurt.

I read it as coming out of hope that sanctions are having effect with deteriorating infrastructure.

Edit and saw your other post re someone dodging a missile was that recent (after may 22) or during the Russian false flag/ overreaction to change of language in eastern provinces of Ukraine?

 

[mcnulty]

I have no idea how you've managed to become so bogged down in semantics following me criticising Putin's lack of action, but think about it, Putin has any number of levers he could use to modify Netanyahu's behaviour and future conduct

Semantics lol. It’s the very thrust of your argument that is so absurd. And you keep digging deeper.

“Putin's moral character is on clear display when he chooses to not act speak out more strongly against Israel's actions, or support the Palestinians more”

Yeah, THIS is what puts his moral character on clear display. Not locking up the opposition, murdering journalists or invading neighbouring countries. This.

 

[Cap]

Such a peaceful nation..

 

[Visions]

You mean in response to "this generous and realistic "peace plan" Zelensky brought with him to Davos"?



LOL.

Why does your avatar remind me of this gif?

https://media.giphy.com/media/s4T64Kx2p0fhm/giphy.jpg

Here’s Russia’s latest peace plan from Medvedev. Really “generous and realistic”.

 

[Visions]

Sure Johnson and Sunak aren’t glowing leaders, but if this Russian apologist was in charge, it would have been a disaster for Ukraine.

 

[Cap]

Come on Russian people

 

[Zidane98]

Apparently things are going just great for Putin in his imperial conquest of Ukraine.

 

[mcnulty]

Sure Johnson and Sunak aren’t glowing leaders, but if this Russian apologist was in charge, it would have been a disaster for Ukraine.

There’s a weird nexus happening between the far left and the far right, and it’s coalescing around Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Hamas.

Horseshoe theory in action.

 

[ibd77]

Another day, another Russian factory plant exploding and catching fire.

Was it the Ukrainians, was it smoking Igor, was it the result of a 3rd world country with lax maintenance programs? Who knows?

The only thing we do know for sure is that a Russian firefighter is a busier occupation than an orc soldier getting pummeled on the front line in Avdiivka.

How many burning buildings does it take to change a light bulb, in the minds of Russian citizens?

 

[Aussie in exile]

Here’s Russia’s latest peace plan from Medvedev. Really “generous and realistic”.

It's Russia that is the cancerus tumour, and needs to be dealt with.

 

[Aussie in exile]

The natives are getting very restless now in Putin's Russia.
The Russia state certainly don't like to be challenged on any level

Russia protest: Crowds clash with riot police as activist jailed

Riot police clash with protesters in small town in the Urals after Fail Alsynov was jailed.

www.bbc.com