Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Mobbs]

Agreed, but they have to allow at least a patsy to run against him to feign democracy.

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[Baldur]

Boris Nadezhdin has apparently been gathering massive numbers of signatures (need a minimum to be able to run for the presidential election) however I can never find out any actual estimates of how close to meeting the target anyone is.

Seems at this rate United Russia will need to trump up a tiny random imaginary crime to keep him from running. But they have to have someone run against Putin so perhaps this is the one rando they'll let through, and then buy out.

Given that they allow him on Russian TV act as an anti-war straw man. That is, he says something sensible and the other commentors laugh at him. He may be allowed to run to provide a sort of fake contest in the election. Than again Putin has a very thin skin, so who knows.

 

[Baldur]

Perfecting the art of election fraud How the Kremlin hopes to streamline its vote rigging in Putin’s next run — Meduza

Early next year, barring unforeseen circumstances, Vladimir Putin will run for his fifth term as Russia’s president. To send a clear message to Russians and to the world about the president’s popularity, his administration’s political bloc plans to use new tactics to ensure his biggest win yet...

meduza.io

Free and Fair elections Putin style.

 

[Zidane98]

The fake list of POWs was supplied from other sources so it hasn't been useful either way at this point.

A couple of (somewhat vague) pieces of info - not clarifying so much as pointing at the muddy bits:

• If you hear argument about whether RF even transports prisoners by plane for exchanges : they do.
• If you hear there was no exchange planned, it's wrong : there was an exchange planned.
• If you hear there was a list of POWs but (at first 1 and later) half the names were of prisoners already exchanged at an earlier time : this list exists but RF didn't provide the list, bloggers (and possibly Simonyan?) did.
• If you hear anyone say the plane carried UKR POW's : this is currently unsubstantiated and definitely accused to be untrue. The claim it carried missiles is also currently unsubstantiated. It's agreed we'll likely discover it was one of these two claims which turns out to be true.
• If media give you a massive rundown of what's found on site, note that only official RF are allowed near the crash site, its cordoned off from anyone else including media. One or two photos of debris had leaked through, but no forensic evidence at this point.
• If you hear that it was shot down by RF air defense, this is unsubstantiated. This claim was an honest but kneejerk assumption by locals who noticed something, but there's no evidence of this yet.
• If you hear that the plane was loaded with RF troops, also unsubstantiated, and likely spread from a chat Putin had with a dignitary from Chad, whose mouth preceded his noggin in a press appearance with Vlad.
• If you learn that the plain was travelling away from Ukraine, not towards, its true this is a claim, but its potentially bloggers making stuff up.
• If you hear that RF didn't mention to UKR at the time any details like expect an aircraft in the air at x oclock which is carrying POWs for the exchange, this seems to be correct. There is usual protocol to trade info at these times so that a non-aggressive vehicle doesnt get targeted, but RF not only did not follow such protocol (seems true), they actually have a poor record of following it (media opinion).

My note: If RF are bullshitting, it's frightening to think RF have a need to construct a narrative about the loss of Ukrainian POWs, as that could be suggestive that they have been illegally executed already while imprisoned, or at least died of other causes in the meantime.

Is the Pope Catholic?

without looking too far it is easy to discover that the inbound flight was from Tehran

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

The world’s most popular flight tracker. Track planes in real-time on our flight tracker map and get up-to-date flight status & airport information.

www.flightradar24.com

So, the IL-76 was downed after taking off from Belgorod. Russian AF has not published what the destination is. Nor has the Russian AF published any photos of large amounts of bodies at the crash site (I seen a few on telegram with what appeared to be the crew).

As you said, the exchange list was also bullshit.

 

[Visions]

The fake list of POWs was supplied from other sources so it hasn't been useful either way at this point.

A couple of (somewhat vague) pieces of info - not clarifying so much as pointing at the muddy bits:

• If you hear argument about whether RF even transports prisoners by plane for exchanges : they do.
• If you hear there was no exchange planned, it's wrong : there was an exchange planned.
• If you hear there was a list of POWs but (at first 1 and later) half the names were of prisoners already exchanged at an earlier time : this list exists but RF didn't provide the list, bloggers (and possibly Simonyan?) did.
• If you hear anyone say the plane carried UKR POW's : this is currently unsubstantiated and definitely accused to be untrue. The claim it carried missiles is also currently unsubstantiated. It's agreed we'll likely discover it was one of these two claims which turns out to be true.
• If media give you a massive rundown of what's found on site, note that only official RF are allowed near the crash site, its cordoned off from anyone else including media. One or two photos of debris had leaked through, but no forensic evidence at this point.
• If you hear that it was shot down by RF air defense, this is unsubstantiated. This claim was an honest but kneejerk assumption by locals who noticed something, but there's no evidence of this yet.
• If you hear that the plane was loaded with RF troops, also unsubstantiated, and likely spread from a chat Putin had with a dignitary from Chad, whose mouth preceded his noggin in a press appearance with Vlad.
• If you learn that the plain was travelling away from Ukraine, not towards, its true this is a claim, but its potentially bloggers making stuff up.
• If you hear that RF didn't mention to UKR at the time any details like expect an aircraft in the air at x oclock which is carrying POWs for the exchange, this seems to be correct. There is usual protocol to trade info at these times so that a non-aggressive vehicle doesnt get targeted, but RF not only did not follow such protocol (seems true), they actually have a poor record of following it (media opinion).

My note: If RF are bullshitting, it's frightening to think RF have a need to construct a narrative about the loss of Ukrainian POWs, as that could be suggestive that they have been illegally executed already while imprisoned, or at least died of other causes in the meantime.

Seems that the flight path shows the plane came from Iran via Africa. Still the possibility that it stopped in Belgorod and took off with UAF prisoners.



But it does lead to this speculation since it passed through Iran.

 

[Mobbs]

Sorry quoting is hard on a phone. I glanced at a map this morning with a similar path, transponder was turned off over the Caspian. Trying to play devils advocate (no dehumanisation intended) I initially gave a chance to it coming from Turkey where some exchanges get negotiated.

But if it took from Iran. ... oh boy

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[Andre]

Seems that the flight path shows the plane came from Iran via Africa. Still the possibility that it stopped in Belgorod and took off with UAF prisoners.

View attachment 1892229

But it does lead to this speculation since it passed through Iran.

This will be great if Iranians were on-board. Will Iran complain about their soldiers killed, having to admit they are helping the Russians, or say nothing publicly? Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch if true.

 

[Al Heimer]

This will be great if Iranians were on-board. Will Iran complain about their soldiers killed, having to admit they are helping the Russians, or say nothing publicly? Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch if true.

Great Intel to take out that group of Iranian scumbags.

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[Zidane98]

This will be great if Iranians were on-board. Will Iran complain about their soldiers killed, having to admit they are helping the Russians, or say nothing publicly? Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch if true.

The Iranians won't be saying anything if it was them. They've been trying to say they are a neutral party to the conflict. Them admitting they were providing drone operators to Russia in order to kill Ukrainian civilians is a very bad look for them.

So if it were true I still expect denials.

 

[Zidane98]

Sorry quoting is hard on a phone. I glanced at a map this morning with a similar path, transponder was turned off over the Caspian. Trying to play devils advocate (no dehumanisation intended) I initially gave a chance to it coming from Turkey where some exchanges get negotiated.

But if it took from Iran. ... oh boy

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Even if it were returning from Turkey it wouldn't have Ukranian POWs on board.

It would have Russian soldiers traded back to them.

The claim from the Russians is bizarre.

 

[Rayzorwire]

Yeah of course, he's a stand up guy, just wants what's best for his people. That's why he carefully filters the information they receive to protect them,

All government's do that, always have on some level and probably always will.

I read a really striking comment from a Russian-American (been a US citizen by marriage for a couple of decades) back when the conflict began where he said the key difference between the average Russian and American citizen was that the Russian people grew up learning to dissect what is likely to be factual from what is likely to be propaganda, because that was the only way to process information coming from State media.

Having been largely convinced since birth that their media at least mostly tells the truth straight up, American citizens have no such skills and are very easy to manipulate as a result.

Make of that what you will, it was only his opinion, a very interesting one, IMO.

I don't speak Russian and have never had a great deal of time to look into it in detail, but from what I do know, there's a lot more media freedom in Russia than Westerners are told.

There's clear, hard red lines to be sure (mostly around not inciting unrest to my understanding), but the night-time talk shows are full of guests from as broad a spectrum as Russia is able to assemble (much harder now since the war) who offer their thoughts and very often, their criticisms on government policy and other issues of world affairs. Numerous Western journalists who spoke out on the wrong thing or left Western media agency employment for ethical reasons claim they are actually freer to speak than in the West - within the previously mentioned hard lines.

Are they right? I honestly don't know the landscape well enough to make a qualified comment, but from what I do see and read second-hand, TBH, the dialogue and analysis is at a level the Western media haven't broadcast on public TV for decades.

 

[Rayzorwire]

Definitely there is still corruption in places in Ukraine as with everywhere. I believe Ukraine have made efforts to stamp a lot out, I also believe they have a long way to go.

Reads like a good summary to me.

Yes Ukraine forces are often buying their own equipment (and getting heaps from supportive bloggers - I've contributed twice on different levels). Unsure how much is due to corruption versus that just do to insufficient support.

I'm sure the soldiers would have dearly appreciated all the help they have received from people such as yourself.

Yes, on the last sentence, as I said earlier, only time will give us a fuller picture on what has occurred. Quite possibly one of those situations where in the end it's a bit of both? (which is perfectly in line with war anywhere)

I hadn't heard this claim. Sounds like an inversion, but if you can find something about it for me I'd be happy to look at it.

The only things I'd seen/read were either in passing from social media places which typically lean to the Russian side of the 'information war' (or sources many of you would regard as such) - mostly why I was asking if you'd heard anything actually.

Again, would like to see te claims as I was unaware. Have seen similar claims in RF but also take those with a grain of salt.

No worries, here's a few - best I can tell it's factual, there are a number of other Western reports with similar info:


A new bill on conscription, drafted by the government, recommends increasing the number of people who can be mobilized by abolishing deferrals for men with group III disabilities...

Ukraine’s 2024 mobilization: Insights into new bill and fitness standards

On. Feb. 24, 2022, the Ukrainian government implemented a general mobilization for all men aged between 18 and 60, who are now considered liable for military service and can be drafted. As part of the mobilization process, individuals undergo a Military Medical Commission (MMC) at territorial...

news.yahoo.com

・The Cabinet of Ministerssubmitted draft law No 10378 On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Improving Certain Issues of Mobilisation, Military Registration and Military Service to the Ukrainian parliament. It regulates the issue of postponement of conscription for military service, including for people with disabilities.

MSN

www.msn.com

KYIV — Ukraine's parliament on Thursday withdrew a mobilization bill that would supply more troops to the front, but which has come under ferocious attack for flaws in how it was drafted.

"Nothing will happen under the law on mobilization. Neither today nor tomorrow. Nor in the near future," Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak of the pro-European opposition Voice party said on Telegram.

Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said the bill will be revamped and submitted for government approval in the near future.
"This law is necessary for the defense of our state and every soldier who is currently at the front. It needs to be approved as soon as possible," he said in a Facebook post.

The bill — presented to parliament over Christmas — generated enormous controversy with its aims of cutting the draft age from 27 to 25, of limiting deferrals for men with slight disabilities, and of increasing penalties for draft-dodgers. But some parliamentarians claimed it wasn't clearly formulated and included human rights violations.

The purpose of the bill is to send more soldiers to battle; the military has said it needs an additional half-million men this year.

Bloodied and exhausted: Ukraine’s effort to mobilize more troops hits trouble

Kyiv needs more men for the battlefield, but must also balance concerns about the economy, taxes and fairness.

www.politico.eu

 

[Rayzorwire]

Now its just that Putin sycophant from Hungary Orban who is holding out.

Orban is doing exactly what his people democratically elected him to do - look after Hungary's interests. The fact he's by and large succeeding quite well at it is reflected in his popularity.

Many of his positions have little to do with siding with Russia (though it's true he is one of the few EU leaders smart enough to understand the link between affordable energy and future prosperity!) and everything to do with stopping the flow of Hungarian capital into the hands of the wealthy neo-liberal EU elite.

Abstract​

Disenchantment with global finance in Central-Eastern Europe enabled financial nationalism to emerge as a counter-hegemonic strategy. In Hungary, Prime Minister Orbán put forth his explicit aim to increase domestic ownership in banking to over 50% and legitimized the ensuing re-nationalization of the financial sector with resentment over neoliberal banking practices. The article describes how the financial crisis created an opportunity for Orbán and his allies to usher in a new era of financial ownership structures. It provides a critical political economy analysis of how the Orbán government selected economic sectors to target and how it used a network of associated private actors in its quest to re-nationalize and then re-privatize major banks to a newly created elite, the ‘national capitalists’. In this, financial nationalism constituted a grand strategy to reconstruct Hungarian capitalism in order to regain autonomy and assure long-term political survival within a liberal EU context.

How Orbán won? Neoliberal disenchantment and the grand strategy of financial nationalism to reconstruct capitalism and regain autonomy

Abstract. Disenchantment with global finance in Central-Eastern Europe enabled financial nationalism to emerge as a counter-hegemonic strategy. In Hungary,

academic.oup.com

Much like China, Hungary's real 'crime' has been thrashing the Atlanticist capitalists at their own game. An example which can't be allowed to stand.

Hence all the pointless belligerence and warmongering in response...

 

[PeterSalt]

A semi-official response to the crash of the Il-76 the other day

Probably worth noting that I don't think Ukraine included that plane in their daily list of russian losses

 

[Mobbs]

The Spectator (is that a news source?) opined that Ukrainian drones have had a more marked effect on the RF industrial sector than western sanctions. I am guessing a little tongue in cheek, yet probably not so far from the truth!

 

[Mobbs]

I don't speak Russian and have never had a great deal of time to look into it in detail, but from what I do know, there's a lot more media freedom in Russia than Westerners are told.

I can speak enough that russians compliment me on it in a patting my head "aww how cute a guy from a country that can barely speak english knows a little russian" kind of way! But it's just a number of basic terms and I am still stuck quickly when trying to understand russian language spoken back to me.

I cant answer your comment on media freedom as I only know what russians say about it. I have no idea what westerners are told. By comparison TO western freedoms, its a no-contest (can debate this if required). By comparison to western percerption of it, I can't comment.

 

[PeterSalt]

Orban is doing exactly what his people democratically elected him to do - look after Hungary's interests. The fact he's by and large succeeding quite well at it is reflected in his popularity.

Many of his positions have little to do with siding with Russia (though it's true he is one of the few EU leaders smart enough to understand the link between affordable energy and future prosperity!) and everything to do with stopping the flow of Hungarian capital into the hands of the wealthy neo-liberal EU elite.

Abstract​

Disenchantment with global finance in Central-Eastern Europe enabled financial nationalism to emerge as a counter-hegemonic strategy. In Hungary, Prime Minister Orbán put forth his explicit aim to increase domestic ownership in banking to over 50% and legitimized the ensuing re-nationalization of the financial sector with resentment over neoliberal banking practices. The article describes how the financial crisis created an opportunity for Orbán and his allies to usher in a new era of financial ownership structures. It provides a critical political economy analysis of how the Orbán government selected economic sectors to target and how it used a network of associated private actors in its quest to re-nationalize and then re-privatize major banks to a newly created elite, the ‘national capitalists’. In this, financial nationalism constituted a grand strategy to reconstruct Hungarian capitalism in order to regain autonomy and assure long-term political survival within a liberal EU context.

How Orbán won? Neoliberal disenchantment and the grand strategy of financial nationalism to reconstruct capitalism and regain autonomy

Abstract. Disenchantment with global finance in Central-Eastern Europe enabled financial nationalism to emerge as a counter-hegemonic strategy. In Hungary,

academic.oup.com

Much like China, Hungary's real 'crime' has been thrashing the Atlanticist capitalists at their own game. An example which can't be allowed to stand.

Hence all the pointless belligerence and warmongering in response...

Orban now controls over 80% of Hungary's media.

Hungary has close has the highest level of corruption of any EU countries according the Transparency Int

Seems odd that Orban, members of his family and close friends and associates have become incredibly wealthy in a very short space of time under his leadership

He's not looking after Hungary's interests

2022 Corruption Perceptions Index: Explore the results

How does your country measure up in the 2022 Corruption Perceptions Index?

www.transparency.org

 

[Mobbs]

Some news on sentences handed down in the RF :

Strelkov (Girkin) got 4 years. A number of pro-Strelkov activists/defenders/protestors were arrested pre- and during trial. [SOTA Project TG]
Judge: - Defendant, do you understand the verdict?
Strelkov: - I serve the Fatherland!


Fail Alsyonov (Bashkir activist around which the current uprising in Ufa and surrounds) also got 4 years. (Article from Meduza)

Court in Russia’s Bashkortostan sentences activist Fail Alsynov to four years in prison, sparking renewed protests — Meduza

A court in Russia’s Republic of Bashkortostan has sentenced prominent local activist Fail Alsynov to four years in prison on charges of “inciting ethnic hatred,” just two days after the case against him caused approximately 1,000 demonstrators to take to the streets in objection.

meduza.io

A court in Russia’s Republic of Bashkortostan has sentenced prominent local activist Fail Alsynov to four years in prison on charges of “inciting ethnic hatred,” just two days after the case against him caused approximately 1,000 demonstrators to take to the streets in objection.
There have been many more arrests of protestors / picketers who support Alsyonov.

Daria Trepova (the girl who allegedly delivered the bomb hidden in a parcel to russian milblogger Maxim Fomin's cafe) got 27 years. [SOTA TG]
Daria Trepova was sentenced to 27 years in prison in the case of the murder of Vladlen Tatarsky

Trepova was found guilty on charges of terrorist attack, transportation of explosives and forgery of documents. The prosecutor demanded that Trepova be sentenced to 28 years in prison.

Dmitry Kasintsev, in whose apartment Trepova was detained, was given a real sentence of 1 year and 9 months.

 

[Mobbs]

Another footnote : In Avdiivka , RF forces managed to enter the city proper via tunnels! They snuck through, got involved, then got kindah pinned down - potentially driven back out. I don't have more info yet, I think this clash could actually still be ongoing. Ukrainian bloggers say their plan backfired but I wanna see RF milbloggers' take on it before making any major assumptions.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Orban is doing exactly what his people democratically elected him to do - look after Hungary's interests. The fact he's by and large succeeding quite well at it is reflected in his popularity.

Many of his positions have little to do with siding with Russia (though it's true he is one of the few EU leaders smart enough to understand the link between affordable energy and future prosperity!) and everything to do with stopping the flow of Hungarian capital into the hands of the wealthy neo-liberal EU elite.

Abstract​

Disenchantment with global finance in Central-Eastern Europe enabled financial nationalism to emerge as a counter-hegemonic strategy. In Hungary, Prime Minister Orbán put forth his explicit aim to increase domestic ownership in banking to over 50% and legitimized the ensuing re-nationalization of the financial sector with resentment over neoliberal banking practices. The article describes how the financial crisis created an opportunity for Orbán and his allies to usher in a new era of financial ownership structures. It provides a critical political economy analysis of how the Orbán government selected economic sectors to target and how it used a network of associated private actors in its quest to re-nationalize and then re-privatize major banks to a newly created elite, the ‘national capitalists’. In this, financial nationalism constituted a grand strategy to reconstruct Hungarian capitalism in order to regain autonomy and assure long-term political survival within a liberal EU context.

How Orbán won? Neoliberal disenchantment and the grand strategy of financial nationalism to reconstruct capitalism and regain autonomy

Abstract. Disenchantment with global finance in Central-Eastern Europe enabled financial nationalism to emerge as a counter-hegemonic strategy. In Hungary,

academic.oup.com

Much like China, Hungary's real 'crime' has been thrashing the Atlanticist capitalists at their own game. An example which can't be allowed to stand.

Hence all the pointless belligerence and warmongering in response...

Lol this is such an embarrassingly pathetic spin to put on the whole situation

 

[schneebly111]

Interesting analysis:



Looks like there are big structural problems with the Ukrainian military beyond just a lack of funding from the Republicans in congress. It doesn’t seem to bode well for Ukraine’s chances. Even if they are somehow able to hold off the Russians from advancing too much further into Ukrainian territory, it would have to be impossible now to believe that Ukraine is capable of taking back Crimea, Donbas and Mariupol with their current and projected future capabilities.

 

[Bloods86]

All government's do that, always have on some level and probably always will.

I read a really striking comment from a Russian-American (been a US citizen by marriage for a couple of decades) back when the conflict began where he said the key difference between the average Russian and American citizen was that the Russian people grew up learning to dissect what is likely to be factual from what is likely to be propaganda, because that was the only way to process information coming from State media.

Having been largely convinced since birth that their media at least mostly tells the truth straight up, American citizens have no such skills and are very easy to manipulate as a result.

Make of that what you will, it was only his opinion, a very interesting one, IMO.

I don't speak Russian and have never had a great deal of time to look into it in detail, but from what I do know, there's a lot more media freedom in Russia than Westerners are told.

There's clear, hard red lines to be sure (mostly around not inciting unrest to my understanding), but the night-time talk shows are full of guests from as broad a spectrum as Russia is able to assemble (much harder now since the war) who offer their thoughts and very often, their criticisms on government policy and other issues of world affairs. Numerous Western journalists who spoke out on the wrong thing or left Western media agency employment for ethical reasons claim they are actually freer to speak than in the West - within the previously mentioned hard lines.

Are they right? I honestly don't know the landscape well enough to make a qualified comment, but from what I do see and read second-hand, TBH, the dialogue and analysis is at a level the Western media haven't broadcast on public TV for decades.

If Russians are exposed to frequent government criticism and balanced reporting on world affairs, and in fact can distinguish between propaganda and reality, then this speaks poorly of Russians. Given Putin's popularity in the face of his barbarity in Ukraine and other places, his repression of minorities and political opponents. It would be morally reprehensible to actually understand the truth and still support it, unless they do and fear the consequences of taking action. I certainly don't take such a dim view of the Russian people.

 

[PeterSalt]

All government's do that, always have on some level and probably always will.

I read a really striking comment from a Russian-American (been a US citizen by marriage for a couple of decades) back when the conflict began where he said the key difference between the average Russian and American citizen was that the Russian people grew up learning to dissect what is likely to be factual from what is likely to be propaganda, because that was the only way to process information coming from State media.

Having been largely convinced since birth that their media at least mostly tells the truth straight up, American citizens have no such skills and are very easy to manipulate as a result.

Make of that what you will, it was only his opinion, a very interesting one, IMO.

I don't speak Russian and have never had a great deal of time to look into it in detail, but from what I do know, there's a lot more media freedom in Russia than Westerners are told.

There's clear, hard red lines to be sure (mostly around not inciting unrest to my understanding), but the night-time talk shows are full of guests from as broad a spectrum as Russia is able to assemble (much harder now since the war) who offer their thoughts and very often, their criticisms on government policy and other issues of world affairs. Numerous Western journalists who spoke out on the wrong thing or left Western media agency employment for ethical reasons claim they are actually freer to speak than in the West - within the previously mentioned hard lines.

Are they right? I honestly don't know the landscape well enough to make a qualified comment, but from what I do see and read second-hand, TBH, the dialogue and analysis is at a level the Western media haven't broadcast on public TV for decades.

This quite possibly the biggest load codswallop I've read for while

An annedotal account of russian living in the US is something I'd take with a grain of salt

If you're on twitter you should perhaps try finding accounts to follow that interpret russian tv

Julia Davis wouldn't be bad place to start

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews

 

[PeterSalt]

Interesting analysis:



Looks like there are big structural problems with the Ukrainian military beyond just a lack of funding from the Republicans in congress. It doesn’t seem to bode well for Ukraine’s chances. Even if they are somehow able to hold off the Russians from advancing too much further into Ukrainian territory, it would have to be impossible now to believe that Ukraine is capable of taking back Crimea, Donbas and Mariupol with their current and projected future capabilities.

Who is this genius?

And why would I bother to take his analysis over the dozens out there already that have recognised credentials?

I listened to a few minutes and he only spoke with broad brush strokes and with no actual detail. His analysis to that point is of no difference to the hundreds of so called OSINT accounts that litter social media

Do you realise you're really just parroting russian talking points?

Or perhaps that's your intention?

 

[schneebly111]

Who is this genius?

And why would I bother to take his analysis over the dozens out there already that have recognised credentials?

I don’t know if he’s credible, but it does seem his comments about the issues with Ukraine’s training, tactics and equipment are coming to fruition. Is it any worse than the “experts” who guaranteed that Ukraine would easily roll the Russians and be lounging on Crimean beaches by last July?

Do you realise you're really just parroting russian talking points?

Or perhaps that's your intention?

No, as I’ve said before I’m a supporter of Ukraine’s democracy over Russia’s dictatorship 100%. But it seems to me as if Ukraine is now losing. Incrementally now, but when the effect of the US funding cuts haven’t shown up yet.

I just can’t see how Ukraine can break through the lines now. When they had full US support and weaponry, multiple mechanised brigades trained by NATO and Russian its weakest position of the war they couldn’t make a dent in the frontline. Ukraine is in a weaker position now how can they ever retake the lost territory?

I don’t know if Russia has the manpower, equipment and weaponry to drive all the way to Kyiv, but that now seems to be the more likely outcome vs Ukraine retaking all of their lost territory including Crimea