We are Finals Bound

[Windhover]

First, consider that realistically the worst Carlton can do is finish 9th. This is because:

1. We play Essendon and Port. We would be favourites to win each game (currently $1.40 to beat Ess), and most unlikely to lose both.

2. North (10th), a game behind us but with a better percentage, play Hawthorn and Collingwood. They are likely to lose each game (currently Hawks $1.35 to beat them) and most unlikely to win more than 1. If we win 1 of our 2 games North must win both. Most unlikely.

3. West Coast (10th) a game behind us with a significantly worse percentage play Collingwood and Adelaide. They might beat Adelaide but Collingwood are $1.12 to beat them this week. Realistically with their percentage they must win both games (and for us to lose both games) to finish ahead of us. This is not going to happen.

4. Lions (11th) a game behind us and with a dreadful percentage play Bulldogs and Cats. Like West Coast they must win both games (ha ha) and we must lose both games.

5.Adelaide (12th) are 2 games behind us and with a significantly worse percentage. They will beat Melb (and could catch up on %) but would have to beat West Coast in the last round and have us lose both games. Most unlikely, particularly if Port have nothing to play for against us, for which see below.

Secondly, the announcement this afternoon that Essada are facing the music next Monday . . . :http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-08-20/dons-to-face-monday-music

. . . means the AFL will be able to do what they have clearly wanted to do since the drugs scandal first broke - dock Essada of premiership points this year and just before the end of the home and away season. To avoid interfering with the finals the AFL will have to announce the penalty before the 9th team (presumably us or Port) plays its last game - since "Mad Monday" will otherwise occur pursuant to the players contracts.

It seems to me (and blind freddy) that the positioning of the Essada hearing on the Monday before the last round is perfectly suited to imposing the penalty on Essada and, if Essada has any brains, it is the perfect penalty for them to accept.

Given the above, should we consider resting Murphy and any other players to get them cherry ripe for our first final, hopefully against the Tiges?

 

[RedFury]

In that article Vlad is quoted as saying that if Essendon applied for an extension, it would be granted. Not sure how that ties in with your theory.

 

[Wickzki]

We are going to the finals if...

Carlton beat Essendon
Fremantle beat Port
Carlton beat Port

We are not going to the finals if this fails to happen.

 

[Windhover]

In that article Vlad is quoted as saying that if Essendon applied for an extension, it would be granted. Not sure how that ties in with your theory.

If you read my "theory" carefully you will see that it is contingent on Essada doing the sensible thing. In the second last paragraph I wrote: "and, if Essada has any brains, it is the perfect penalty for them to accept."

 

[Graffy4242]

We are going to the finals if...

Carlton beat Essendon
Fremantle beat Port
Carlton beat Port

We are not going to the finals if this fails to happen.

Agree. Would feel a bit dirty if we got in any other way.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

We are going to the finals if...

Carlton beat Essendon
Fremantle beat Port
Carlton beat Port

We are not going to the finals if this fails to happen.

I wonder if Port will do what Freo done a couple of seasons ago to increase their chances of playing finals.

Rest key/sore players for the trip to Perth and have them refreshed for the final game against us at home knowing they only have to win 1 game.

 

[Sublime]

How about we just win our last 2 matches and whatever else happens, happens.

 

[Tony Harrison]

We are going to the finals if...

Carlton beat Essendon
Fremantle beat Port
Carlton beat Port

We are not going to the finals if this fails to happen.

Yes. I think it will come down to the Carlton Port game and I think both teams will fancy themselves. Will be huge. I hope you guys get through and we stay in 5th to play you again at the G.
Would surely be a close match and despite losing, I really enjoyed the hatred between the Tiges/Blues players on the weekend. Haven't seen that in a Richmond game in a long time.

 

[Beloved]

We're ninth. We're not in the top eight. We're eight points away from being in the top eight. We are not "finals bound" yet. We will be "finals bound" if/when we beat Essendon and Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide beat us by 60-odd points at AAMI last year. These sort of threads are how people make themselves look silly in the attempt to be "first" to call it.

As Sublime said, how about we just try and win these last two games before even considering finals, yeah?

 

[serenityNow]

We are going to the finals if...

Carlton beat Essendon
Fremantle beat Port
Carlton beat Port

We are not going to the finals if this fails to happen.

This /\/\/\/\

Dont want to be the first Bradbury AFL finalist, gotta earn some things guys.

*Im sorta hoping the cheats drag this out and eventually lose points going into next year....they'll be out the door first week of finals this year anyway.

 

[HBF]

Agree. Would feel a bit dirty if we got in any other way.

As good as it would be to play finals at Essendons* expense, we need to be able to get their under our own steam. First things first - knock over Essendon* on Saturday night and hope that Freo do the right thing by us and beat Port. Freo are going to be very keep to keep on winning as they may be able to finish top 2.

Then, it's an elimiation final against Port the following week.

 

[mickelboy182]

I'm having horrible flashbacks to last year... We needed Freo to beat North and no one really considered GC to beat us...

Let's just beat Essendon for now.

 

[BM123]

Well this thread couldn't possibly backfire

 

[Dramoth]

I can see the Essendon lawyers scrabbling to get their request for an extension in after Fat Vlad kindly pointed out that it was just the 4 Amino's who had been granted an extension... not the club.

 

[Faz 2000]

I highly doubt we're playing finals, and we don't deserve to play finals. Since when is this a finals side? I can't believe our idiot players are still fronting the media talking about doing damage in September - what, to a bar tab? To Royal Park Public?

We need lots of things to go right, and none to go wrong. That doesn't happen very often.

If we were really keen to play finals, we should have beaten the Bulldogs. And Essendon. And Collingwood.

 

[RedFury]

If you read my "theory" carefully you will see that it is contingent on Essada doing the sensible thing. In the second last paragraph I wrote: "and, if Essada has any brains, it is the perfect penalty for them to accept."

There's your problem right there

*Im sorta hoping the cheats drag this out and eventually lose points going into next year....they'll be out the door first week of finals this year anyway.

Yep and that basically ties in with what Windhover is saying. Considering they look done this year, accepting the loss of points this year is a far better move than risking whatever the AFL could hand down as a replacement to this later on. Essada* are just too stupid to see this though.

 

[Jeremias]

This could have been covered here, here or even here.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I'm having horrible flashbacks to last year... We needed Freo to beat North and no one really considered GC to beat us...

Actually we need North to beat Freo and us to smash Gold Coast, just to get a leg up % wise considering Freo were playing Melbourne in the last round. None of it happened.

Freo have a couple of outs. Port could upset them interstate just as Freo upset North interstate. Bombers have all but been told they are playing finals so their attitude might change.