We can win this ...and here's why

[Snoop Dog]

Been interesting listening to all the commentators talk about saints winning this weekend. I actually tipped Saints last week for a variety of reasons around bigger bodies, game plan, experience etc.

This week am not so sure but feel confident the Pies are right in it and here is why;


Betting was always wrong

Saints have won 5 of the last 6 games against us - if that was a horse and you were offered $3 in a two horse race you would literally be laughed at if you didnt take it on board.

Defensive game

Reason they have beaten us 5 times out of last 6 is because they adapt very well and if ever behind they go defensive. It happened on the weekend after our fast start and Mick now has the luxury of planning for it if it happened again. From a coaching perspective I think we learned a lot about their game plan and I wouldnt be surprised if the coaches think this is the biggest positive to come out of the day.

Kids inexperience

8 players took to the field with less than 50 games experience......that is by anyones definition a lot kids. Many of them didnt play anywhere near their best - Caf, Dawes, Wellers, Beams, Blair. Reid, Brown, Sidey were all good.

An additional 4 were still relatively 'young' in Thomas, Pendles, Tooves and OBrien and I have no doubts that OBrien got some nerves late and Pendles was also a bit 'lost'.

All these kids will be better for the experience - a lot better........I think from a playing / coaching group perspective this is huge.


Senior players will be better

Not one of Swan, Didak, Ball and Pendles were in the top 9 players on the ground for mine (Hayes, Goddard, Fisher, Maxwell, Shaw, Thomas, Gwilt, Montagna, N.Brown). Dont think that has ever happened and strictly speaking if you told me that before the start of the game I would have had us down for a massive loss. That wont happen again.......if it does we wont get away with it again.

Goddard and Hayes

Surely the coach has figured out their are 4-5 players that you have to plan for next week. How Goddard had Ball on him late was beyond me and then exploited him by going fwd. Hayes is hard to block but again he is so important to them he must be contained. Fisher and Roo are the other two and surely should be matched up.

For me;

Goddard - Would send Toovey with him all day if they believe he has the engine. Has the legs, the height and the ability to go in the air with him. If Goldsack came in he would be an option as well.

Hayes - Johnsop is the choice I think. Johnson was good in traffic and can run off him and kick a goal so Hayes wont be allowed to 'free wheel'. I thought Johnson was lucky not to be exposed by Milne a couple of times and just fear he is to loose down back. If he plays back he cant hurt them on scorebaord either.

Riewoldt - You have to back the kid again surely.

Fisher - MacAffer for me. Strong enough to compete and if taken to the contest by Fisher is good enough in traffic and low down to feed a handball.

Gwilt - I would be keen to get a smaller type on him like Beams.

Dal Santo - Wellers is the right guy

Montagna - I would have Thomas on him and let them go at it.


Changes for us

Some fresh legs is key. If Blair, Beams or Caf are considered 'tired' then not sure they should play. Be hard on Beams and Caf but they are kids and have been playing for a while with no break. Davis is hard - on stats he should miss but he is a game breaker and if the coaching staff can create more 'space' in the fwd 50 the game will suit him so much better.

In respect to the 'ins' I would be more than happy to see Locks, Meddy or Goldy come in. Would have to think it is Goldy but close.

For me;

Out: Davis and Blair
In: Lockyer or Meddy (prob Lockyer given was an emerg) and Goldy


St Kilda have done it tough

They have now had 3 very tough games in 4 weeks and are backing up for another. If they won the GF they would be lucky given their formline hasnt been great in 2010 finals. Pies have to believe they are still the better 2010 side in H&A and in finals.

Fitness

Gram, Dal Santo are injured and not going to get a lot better I would think. Not sure Dempster completely right either and with Kosi having to play more ruck this week it wont help Roo down fwd any without him.

Pies are fine and Ball should be better next week.

Tip

Pies by 26 pts but the Swan, Pendles need to be better and some of the kids that lowered their colors the same. Just cant believe we could play that bad again.

 

[mattys123]

I love the Toovey to Goddard call, Tooves could literally be the difference next week, he is the best "shutdown" player we have, and I see no reason why he couldn't go with Goddard, wherever he goes.

Hayes is the worry for me, we can't put Johnson on him, Milne will kill us, and we have to make sure Milne doesn't touch the ball, as he didn't have a kick on Johnno the other day (kicked 2 while on Harry).

I'd actually think about playing Thomas and Beams/Sidebottom head to head with Hayes. We can't play one player on him, we rotate more then they do, so we need at least 2-3 to "go through him".

Riewoldt is the other "worry", Brown did sensationally well on him, but can he restrict him 2 weeks in a row, I have my doubts, but if Presti isn't 100%, we have no choice.

We will win if our better players, simply play better IMO.

 

[Pera]

Just cant believe we could play that bad again.

I said the same before the 2nd Melbourne game during the H&A season and they bettered their previous performance by a point.

St Kilda will take that.

 

[Pies_10]

What's up with people putting Lockyer in WTF
His way past it his last games for us his done nothing because his too slow

 

[boxy2010]

I agree with all discussed above, i dont think Lockyer should be in, he's lost his pace however his cool head and directional kicking into the forward 50 may help.

We seemed to be just bombing away in the second half as if we were pannicking.
Medders shouldnt even be considered out of the game too long...
Goldy is the sensible choice and davis out, heath to push up the ground and play on wing allowing thomas to be sweeper

 

[Half Back Pocket]

Betting was always wrong

Saints have won 5 of the last 6 games against us - if that was a horse and you were offered $3 in a two horse race you would literally be laughed at if you didnt take it on board.

Defensive game

Reason they have beaten us 5 times out of last 6 is because they adapt very well and if ever behind they go defensive. It happened on the weekend after our fast start and Mick now has the luxury of planning for it if it happened again. From a coaching perspective I think we learned a lot about their game plan and I wouldnt be surprised if the coaches think this is the biggest positive to come out of the day.


Goddard and Hayes

Surely the coach has figured out their are 4-5 players that you have to plan for next week. How Goddard had Ball on him late was beyond me and then exploited him by going fwd. Hayes is hard to block but again he is so important to them he must be contained. Fisher and Roo are the other two and surely should be matched up.

You are saying it has been 5 times out of the last 6...yet now the Collingwood Coaching staff have learnt something?

Bizarre.

 

[4#Didak#4]

I think the main thing we need to change was the bombing into forward 50. They really just got back in numbers well and it was just like a good old fashioned flood down there. We were just kicking in hope that someone would grab a mark or find some space at ground level, this really was a kick in hope as there just wasn't any space to move in our forward 50.

Something we have done well the last few years is hitting up players on the lead and not handing it back with low percentage plays. We seemed to abandon that this week. That may be the pressure or panic, but it played into their hands.

I couldn't understand why we didn't try & control possession more, particularly in the third quarter.

It could be to do with our new forward pressure concept & that we just wanted it in there so we could keep it in & create a score. The trouble was they simply clogged the space and made it hard to score. The inside 50 difference was ridiculous. So many rushed behinds on the line showed we were getting it in deep but to contests we weren't going to win due to being outnumbered. We really needed to kick to leading options 30-40 out. This spreads their defence and creates more space.

I think if we can change the phases of the way we play it will help a lot. We seemed to play just one way on Saturday. We really need to use the forward pressure in bursts. Then when they move their numbers back, hold on to the ball, run it & pass to leads, go backwards & retain possession.

St Kilda play in bursts, they a very defensive and then they will suddenly attack hard catching the defense out. We need to recognise this & be able to go into defense mode to shut it down. They are great at the rope-a-dope. Absorb the attacks then punch when they let their guard down.

 

[daics_35]

You are saying it has been 5 times out of the last 6...yet now the Collingwood Coaching staff have learnt something?

Bizarre.

I dont give a stuff about games two or three years ago. This years form is what concerns me and we have both beat eachother once this year. So we are pretty much even.

 

[GordonBlue]

SO hang on... in the OP basically said all pies players that didn't play to standards will play better... and the ones that played good will still play good... however the saints players who played good will be shut down and the ones that were quiet, the collingwood players will do the job again on them... yep sounds 100% bullet proof to me

 

[Jedi01]

You are saying it has been 5 times out of the last 6...yet now the Collingwood Coaching staff have learnt something?

Bizarre.

Saints seemed to learn at half time.

 

[boxy2010]

SO hang on... in the OP basically said all pies players that didn't play to standards will play better... and the ones that played good will still play good... however the saints players who played good will be shut down and the ones that were quiet, the collingwood players will do the job again on them... yep sounds 100% bullet proof to me

I think he was referring to the fact that your top 4 played well and our top 4 did not and it was still a draw.

If our top 4 played as well as yours it would be a different result.

 

[Snoop Dog]

You are saying it has been 5 times out of the last 6...yet now the Collingwood Coaching staff have learnt something?

Bizarre.

Usually have a policy of not replying to idiots that come onto our Board and come up with stuff like the above.......I mean it would be moronic to suggest the Collingwood coaching staff didnt learn something out of Saturday......

 

[Snoop Dog]

I think he was referring to the fact that your top 4 played well and our top 4 did not and it was still a draw.

If our top 4 played as well as yours it would be a different result.

Exactly.......apols if it wasnt as obvious as it needed to be.

My point was Hayes, Goddard, Fisher, Montagna all played very well. The only blokes that didnt play so well from your top 5 or 6 was Dal (inj) and Roo (who wasnt to bad). Same cannot be said for us. A number of our top liners had their worst numbers for the year.

 

[Half Back Pocket]

Usually have a policy of not replying to idiots that come onto our Board and come up with stuff like the above.......I mean it would be moronic to suggest the Collingwood coaching staff didnt learn something out of Saturday......

Sorry Snoop, it would be moronic to suggest that the Saints have beaten Collingwood with this ultra defensive game style 5 times out of the last 6, yet only now MM has learnt something. Its the same St Kilda game plan of the last 4 years...i'm sure MM would know its workings intimately.

 

[rose jam]

Changes that could make a difference;

Tactical - extra run through the middle. Goldy to release Johnson or Shaw into the middle

Instructional - hit up forward leads even if 50/50 at the expense of the long kick in to ensure open forward line entire game

Physical - higher rotations of forwards into the middle. If you can't play midfield and forward you're out of this game (only can carry 1, which would be Luke Ball)

 

[TradeDraft]

Great Read Snoop - Getting me Pumped up for Next Week

 

[jimmy35]

They have now had 3 very tough games in 4 weeks and are backing up for another.

Good read, and this ^^^ could be very relevant.

 

[Thommo 42]

We will remain the only side to ever win a premiership in October.

 

[Quicky]

You are saying it has been 5 times out of the last 6...yet now the Collingwood Coaching staff have learnt something?

Bizarre.

SO hang on... in the OP basically said all pies players that didn't play to standards will play better... and the ones that played good will still play good... however the saints players who played good will be shut down and the ones that were quiet, the collingwood players will do the job again on them... yep sounds 100% bullet proof to me

I think I just saw the OP whizz straight over your heads.

 

[didaka]

What about the option of resting Swan up forward at times, rather than rotating him through the midfield and off the bench all the time.

He's the sort of player who can win the footy up forward with his big strong body and get a couple of shots on goal, and as we know, goals will again be hard to come by on Saturday.

 

[magpiewarrior]

After studying the replay of our GF, I am convinced that the title of this thread is 100% correct, but I tend to disagree with most the conclusions that are being thrown about as to why we didn't win it the first time.
Please bear with me folks, this may seem a bit long winded. Consider the difference between our 1st half of the PF and the second half of the PF and all of the GF.
The problems that were there in the 1st half were masked by the sheer hard work in the 1st half.
Against Geelong in the 1st half of the PF we swarmed, not only did we swarm but we did so selflessly, efficiently and with the support of all our team-mates. When any one of our players was in a contest, team-mates worked hard to also get to the contest. When they got to the contest they didn't wait on the outside to get the loose ball, no they assisted with the tackle and once the opo player went to ground, one Pie would continue the tackle while the other was trying to strip the ball away from the opo. I believe that it was this obvious desire for the ball (not the free kick) that saw the umps treat us well particularly in the first 1/4 (of PF). If the opo prevented us from stripping the ball away then he was obviously holding it in, hence the free-kick. Most of the time however we were away with the ball and heading to the next possession. Players blocked for each other, keeping opos out of the contests and applied some sensational shepheards. In the 2nd 1/2 of the PF we seemed to stop thinking of ourselves as giant killers & became a bit arragant. That is we still went 2 to the contest but one would tackle while the other waited for the ball to pop out. The arragance is in believing that we will win all 1 on 1 contests thus the ball will always come out. This is the mind set that we carried into the GF, it didn't work! We worked our collective butt off in the 1st 1/2 of the GF but we didn't adhere to our structures or gameplan, so we had to work harder and couldn't sustain the level of energy expenditure necessary to play like that. Tackles caused stoppages not breakaways (just the way St Kilda like it) Kicks were predictable because although we always play wide we didn't draw them to our position so that we could then switch the ball and hit targets inside the 50. The only consistent switching of play was across the extreme full back line whereas we usually switch play across 1/2 back or midfield to 1/2 forward line. Every game where we have been most inaccurate has been when we are bombing long into our forward 50 because the bombs are low % options. Even lower % when we bomb to a metre out from the goal-line where Sts can just punch the ball through for a point. In the under 14s many,many years ago I was told by the coach that if you're ever having a shot on goal from your distance limit, don't go to the goal line go to the top of the square, making it harder for the opos to force it through for a point without great risk. Bombing long is not part of our game-plan, we are about being patient and finding (& hitting) targets. We are about doing the 1%ers to support our team-mates, working hard to provide multiple options down the ground, and attacking the football 100%, not trying to read the freak bounce, not waiting for a team-mate to get it out for us and definitely not letting the opos get the ball first so that we can apply the tackles once they have the ball. We let Sts dictate the way the game was played because we played on their terms. They can't lock down the swarm, and if they don't lock us down they can't monster us. We must bring back the swarm and do it properly, with full focus on getting the ball and moving it forward, we can do it, we did it 2 weeks ago and Geelong didn't know what hit them. Just see the quotes from Scarlett after the game, or Milburn, or Ling or Bartel. One of the beautys of the swarm is that it means match-ups become less significant because we out-number them at most contests.

 

[Antz]

After studying the replay of our GF, I am convinced that the title of this thread is 100% correct, but I tend to disagree with most the conclusions that are being thrown about as to why we didn't win it the first time.
Please bear with me folks, this may seem a bit long winded. Consider the difference between our 1st half of the PF and the second half of the PF and all of the GF.
The problems that were there in the 1st half were masked by the sheer hard work in the 1st half.
Against Geelong in the 1st half of the PF we swarmed, not only did we swarm but we did so selflessly, efficiently and with the support of all our team-mates. When any one of our players was in a contest, team-mates worked hard to also get to the contest. When they got to the contest they didn't wait on the outside to get the loose ball, no they assisted with the tackle and once the opo player went to ground, one Pie would continue the tackle while the other was trying to strip the ball away from the opo. I believe that it was this obvious desire for the ball (not the free kick) that saw the umps treat us well particularly in the first 1/4 (of PF). If the opo prevented us from stripping the ball away then he was obviously holding it in, hence the free-kick. Most of the time however we were away with the ball and heading to the next possession. Players blocked for each other, keeping opos out of the contests and applied some sensational shepheards. In the 2nd 1/2 of the PF we seemed to stop thinking of ourselves as giant killers & became a bit arragant. That is we still went 2 to the contest but one would tackle while the other waited for the ball to pop out. The arragance is in believing that we will win all 1 on 1 contests thus the ball will always come out. This is the mind set that we carried into the GF, it didn't work! We worked our collective butt off in the 1st 1/2 of the GF but we didn't adhere to our structures or gameplan, so we had to work harder and couldn't sustain the level of energy expenditure necessary to play like that. Tackles caused stoppages not breakaways (just the way St Kilda like it) Kicks were predictable because although we always play wide we didn't draw them to our position so that we could then switch the ball and hit targets inside the 50. The only consistent switching of play was across the extreme full back line whereas we usually switch play across 1/2 back or midfield to 1/2 forward line. Every game where we have been most inaccurate has been when we are bombing long into our forward 50 because the bombs are low % options. Even lower % when we bomb to a metre out from the goal-line where Sts can just punch the ball through for a point. In the under 14s many,many years ago I was told by the coach that if you're ever having a shot on goal from your distance limit, don't go to the goal line go to the top of the square, making it harder for the opos to force it through for a point without great risk. Bombing long is not part of our game-plan, we are about being patient and finding (& hitting) targets. We are about doing the 1%ers to support our team-mates, working hard to provide multiple options down the ground, and attacking the football 100%, not trying to read the freak bounce, not waiting for a team-mate to get it out for us and definitely not letting the opos get the ball first so that we can apply the tackles once they have the ball. We let Sts dictate the way the game was played because we played on their terms. They can't lock down the swarm, and if they don't lock us down they can't monster us. We must bring back the swarm and do it properly, with full focus on getting the ball and moving it forward, we can do it, we did it 2 weeks ago and Geelong didn't know what hit them. Just see the quotes from Scarlett after the game, or Milburn, or Ling or Bartel. One of the beautys of the swarm is that it means match-ups become less significant because we out-number them at most contests.

Jesus.....don't you believe in paragraphs

 

[magpiewarrior]

Jesus.....don't you believe in paragraphs

Sorry about that but I just tried to get the message out as best I could, as quickly as I could.
Once I realised that our 1st 1/2 wasn't as good as I thought at the time the rest just came bubbling up. Believe it or not I was trying to keep the post as short as I could and as such have only outlined a fraction of what I wanted to say.
But hey as soon as I posted it and saw it on the page, I thought s**t aint no-one gonna read that. Did you actually read it or just type your reaction when you saw it (can't really blame you if you did)?

 

[Mickaman]

I think we should have won it on Saturday. I think Saints will get more confidence from the draw last week. Also keep in mind that not only did they salvage a draw in the second half they did it with 21 men and no recognised ruck.

Yes alot of our players were down but the discrepancy of about 30 extra inside 50's our way should have seen us win and win well.

I am pessimistic about this week. I think it will be a 4 to 5 goal win but not sure which team will win. Hope it's us but at this stage I think the Saints will win.

 

[Antz]

Sorry about that but I just tried to get the message out as best I could, as quickly as I could.
Once I realised that our 1st 1/2 wasn't as good as I thought at the time the rest just came bubbling up. Believe it or not I was trying to keep the post as short as I could and as such have only outlined a fraction of what I wanted to say.
But hey as soon as I posted it and saw it on the page, I thought s**t aint no-one gonna read that. Did you actually read it or just type your reaction when you saw it (can't really blame you if you did)?

Na I read it big boy and totally agree with you. If we play like we did against Geelong we will shoe it in. Simple as that.