Wed training

[dominguez]

Agree with Clay, I'll be surprised if Melbourne make the 8.

Scully looks like heading to GWS, would love to see Schwabbolly lose another early draft pick.

 

[E Shed]

I won't be at all surprised to see Melbourne climb the ladder. They have drafted beautifully. Can't put that much class on the paddock and not expect results. They would have beaten us at home last year if Watts kicked straight. Not many teams managed that. Scully thrashed Hilly, again not many managed that, especially a first year player.

I like the confidence you guys have but really we are on a level with Carlton, North, Melbourne, Hawthorn, probably Adelaide. We will need everything to go our way to finish as high as we did last year.

 

[Clay Davis]

They would have beaten us at home last year if Watts kicked straight.

No. If anything, had Morabito kicked straight we would have romped home early.

Scully thrashed Hilly

Did he? I know Gerard Healy said rabbited on about that on the coverage, but as far as I saw it, there was hardly any difference.

It's 90% hype based on high draft picks. Same rubbish that led to people thinking West Coast would make the 8 last year.

 

[E Shed]

No. If anything, had Morabito kicked straight we would have romped home early.

They got well on top late in the game and really should have won.

Did he? I know Gerard Healy said rabbited on about that on the coverage, but as far as I saw it, there was hardly any difference.

It's 90% hype based on high draft picks. Same rubbish that led to people thinking West Coast would make the 8 last year.

Toward the end of the game Scully had run Hill off his feet. I was astounded as I'd never seen anyone outrun Hilly over 4 quarters. Hill simply couldn't go with him. Scully is a running machine.

Unlike West Coast Melbourne have used their early picks beautifully and got them in years of deep drafts. Morton, Watts, Scully, Trengove, Gysberts, Grimes, Blease, Frawley, Mckenzie, Tapscott, Gawn is as good as a list of youngsters as anyone has. Jurrah, Bennel, Davey, Wonnamiri is as good a group of indigenous boys as anyone.
They don't have the top line experienced players we have but there is plenty of talent to worry any side on their day. Bate, Dunn, Garland, Green, Sylvia, Jamar, Jones, Maloney, Petterd.
Can't see how that lot aren't going to win their fair share.

 

[the doc]

They got well on top late in the game and really should have won.



Toward the end of the game Scully had run Hill off his feet. I was astounded as I'd never seen anyone outrun Hilly over 4 quarters. Hill simply couldn't go with him. Scully is a running machine.

Unlike West Coast Melbourne have used their early picks beautifully and got them in years of deep drafts. Morton, Watts, Scully, Trengove, Gysberts, Grimes, Blease, Frawley, Mckenzie, Tapscott, Gawn is as good as a list of youngsters as anyone has. Jurrah, Bennel, Davey, Wonnamiri is as good a group of indigenous boys as anyone.
They don't have the top line experienced players we have but there is plenty of talent to worry any side on their day. Bate, Dunn, Garland, Green, Sylvia, Jamar, Jones, Maloney, Petterd.
Can't see how that lot aren't going to win their fair share.

Highlighted guys have not played or not played enough to comment. Gawn has had one or ACL's so do not hold your breath! Morton has not really delivered but could, same re Watts. Scully Trengove, Grimes and Frawley are top shelf.

They have no 'senior's' other than green who can play and he honest without being brilliant.

I recon their hopes lie with Jamar. He goes down there will be a flood of ball hitting the defence against the teams with reasonable ruck.

Also I have heard about some of the goings on in the club and its typical song and dance from Cuddles and Scwab. The professionalism and structures are not there.

In saying that they should be there about for the 8 given the recent drafting positions. On their day they can hit targets and move the ball well into scoring positions.

 

[Alfonz]

I haven't examined the draw completely, but I've read a lot of people saying Melbourne has a dream draw, with plenty of double games against bottom sides. Wouldn't be surprised to see them make the finals, but there are plenty of clubs on a similar level whose fate will be decided largely by injuries.

 

[Alfonz]

I like the confidence you guys have but really we are on a level with Carlton, North, Melbourne, Hawthorn, probably Adelaide. We will need everything to go our way to finish as high as we did last year.

Can't really agree with this. If we can maintain 5th-6th I think that will be a reasonable effort pushing on for 2012, but I still think we are a level above most of those teams you listed and would be extremely disappointed if they overtook us. The exception maybe Hawthorn, but we destroyed them in a final.

Last year was pretty much the opposite to having everything go our way and we still came 6th. If everything went our way last year I am almost certain we would have made the top 4, and reasonably confident we would have finished top 2 and made the grand final. I'm talking about Barlow and Tarrant not ending their season early, as well as Pavlich and Sandilands not being crippled. Best mid, best defender, best forward, best ruckman. All hobbled. Not to mention others like Ballantyne, etc.

 

[Clay Davis]

They got well on top late in the game and really should have won.

No. Way. I can't believe you think like that. We dominated in the first half and didn't put them away on the board. We played well below what we had the entire season and still looked better for the majority of the game. They staged a late-ish comeback like Brisbane, Carlton x2, but I don't see how a side that kicked 1 goal 3 to our 1 goal 6 in the last quarter was 'on top'. I know being a Freo fan we can be pessimistic and sit there thinking the worst is going to eventuate, but in the cold light of day we were on top the entire game, aside from the third quarter.

Toward the end of the game Scully had run Hill off his feet. I was astounded as I'd never seen anyone outrun Hilly over 4 quarters. Hill simply couldn't go with him.

This didn't happen. In the last quarter Hill did a 100 m run up the field that took the ball from the back pocket to deep in the goal square. Maybe that is why he was buggered? Nothing to do with Scully.

Scully is a running machine.

Yeah, and Naitanui is a jumping machine. So what?

Unlike West Coast Melbourne have used their early picks beautifully and got them in years of deep drafts. Morton, Watts

Stop right there. If those are the first two you are naming, then I can't see how Morton is any more of a draft pick burn than Masten or that Watts is anywhere near the player Naitanui is at this stage.

The rest of that list is nothing more than any other club's list of kids.

 

[E Shed]

Time will tell. My opinion is that Melbourne have a superb list in the 18 to 25 range & I expect them to feature prominently in finals over the next 5 years.
I expect us also to play finals for a few years and after that will depend on who we can develop to replace Sandi, Pav, McPharlin, Grover. Our age grouping, due to our severe rebuild is more staggered. I think we are in pretty good shape but it's unrealistic to expect we won't take a bit of a hit when the players above hang up the boots.
We will just have to disagree on the Melbourne game. We have been their bunnies for a while and I felt when the tide turned in that game that they had us on the ropes. Perhaps I'm being overly negative. I hope so but that game didn't fill me with joy.

 

[greatgatsby]

I think we can expect to play Melbourne in a second half of September final in a couple of years time. For the time being I'd like to think we're ahead of them because of our quality older players.

The problem now for Adelaide (often forgotten but they have great youth), Richmond and Melbourne is that they have to wait for their good youngsters to develop together because they lack good established players (the Crows effectively lost all theirs in one hit).

 

[Clay Davis]

We have been their bunnies for a while

No, we haven't. Since they last beat us at Subi in 2004, they have played us 11 times and won only 3 games. We've had a couple of bad recent losses to them at the MCG, but that's it. Even when it comes to MCG games since the last beat us at home, the record is 2-3 their way.

Since we last met them in the finals, the result is 4-2 our way.

We've generally easily accounted for them at home, and not done that badly at the MCG. The only teams we have better recent records against is West Coast and Carlton.

If we're Melbourne's bunnies, then what are we to Collingwood, Geelong, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs ... etc, all of whom we have poor to shocking records against.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

I thought we had a fairly decent record against the saints up until this year?

 

[Clay Davis]

I thought we had a fairly decent record against the saints up until this year?

Reasonably OK - 1995-2009, we were 50/50 with the Saints, but we haven't beaten them since 2007, and haven't beaten them in Victoria since 1995.

 

[theGav56]

I expect us also to play finals for a few years and after that will depend on who we can develop to replace Sandi, Pav, McPharlin, Grover. Our age grouping, due to our severe rebuild is more staggered. I think we are in pretty good shape but it's unrealistic to expect we won't take a bit of a hit when the players above hang up the boots.

Fer sure. That's a pretty fair chunk of goal to goal, each of them significantly influential. I also expected to suffer when Bell, Farmer etc went. Different stature of player of course which is the key. BUT there is now some cover for those guys, plus some as yet untapped talent on the list so it is not all doom and gloom. Plus they will depart in a staggered fashion which is good for us as well.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Yeah, we have players like Mayne, Anthony, Morabito, Silvagni, Faulks, Roberton with enough talent + potential to cover for the loss of the "big 4" so to speak - Sandilands, Pavich, Grover and McPharlin

We then have players who are a couple years younger than that group who will play for a bit longer hopefully - Johnson, Crowley, Duffield, Broughton etc.

We have 31 players who are 24 years or younger by round 1 and I think there is enough talent there to cover the loss of players in the future

 

[IAMJUNGLEMUFFIN]

Can't really agree with this. If we can maintain 5th-6th I think that will be a reasonable effort pushing on for 2012, but I still think we are a level above most of those teams you listed and would be extremely disappointed if they overtook us. The exception maybe Hawthorn, but we destroyed them in a final.

Last year was pretty much the opposite to having everything go our way and we still came 6th. If everything went our way last year I am almost certain we would have made the top 4, and reasonably confident we would have finished top 2 and made the grand final. I'm talking about Barlow and Tarrant not ending their season early, as well as Pavlich and Sandilands not being crippled. Best mid, best defender, best forward, best ruckman. All hobbled. Not to mention others like Ballantyne, etc.

We are 4 men down on last years best 22 untill at least a third of the way through the season, while the chances of Ballas and Barlow to play even remotely close to last year are non existant. Sure, alot of our younger players will have improved, but then so will Melbourne's. Hawthorn and Adelaide had a terrible run with injuries last year and look to be having a better run this year, and after 2 close wins against Carlton, I wouldn't say we are miles ahead of them.

As we saw at the back end of last season, we are a player or two away from being a hugely inferior team.

On the tough run thing, I have to disagree totally. Early season, almost every single team we played had important players out with injury/suspension, or returning underdone. Barring Barlow and Tarrant, we were able to select our best 22 the vast majority of the season. As for Pav and Sandi (news to me) not being 100%, I dare say pretty much every team would have been in the position of having their stars playing injured.

 

[rgauci]

Have to disagree. Pavlich/Sandilands are essentially irreplaceable. Especially Sandilands.

We could get very lucky and our NSW scholarship boy Muller might soften the blow.

With a bit of realistic foresight our window is opening up for 2-3 years. It will subsequently close for 2-3 years then reopen as the new brigade reach their senior years.

Hanging your hopes on some key position players obtained through the PSD or some exchange program with Gold Coast isn't clever. Not saying Faulks/Anthony won't be useful or best 22. But if they are your best KPP you are really struggling.

 

[greatgatsby]

Prefer to look on the upside of this. We have the list to be competitive while Pav, Sandi and McPharlin are still at or near their top. This separates us from most of the other young sides who don't have high quality senior players.

Our chances 3 years down the track will partly depend on how our young KPPs and rucks develop. This is the unknown quantity but we should have faith in Faulks, Sibosado, Anthony, Clarke etc developing as we would like.

We should bear in mind the game is evolving rapidly and we are potentially ahead of the curve with our list development. What the evolution means is less reliance on monster KPPs (which we don't necessarily have) and more on big, highly mobile mids/utilities (which we are stocking up on nicely).

 

[duff_man41]

Hey just wondering what time training is tomorrow?

 

[E Shed]

Training has been kicking off about 9 at McGilvray recently. Not sure if it's there tomorrow, they may do closed training at Freo or something leading up to the NAB. Nothing to base this on just saying they might not do exactly what they've been doing but I would take a chance on McGilvray. I can't get there tomorrow unfortunately.

 

[Alfonz]

We are 4 men down on last years best 22 untill at least a third of the way through the season, while the chances of Ballas and Barlow to play even remotely close to last year are non existant. Sure, alot of our younger players will have improved, but then so will Melbourne's. Hawthorn and Adelaide had a terrible run with injuries last year and look to be having a better run this year, and after 2 close wins against Carlton, I wouldn't say we are miles ahead of them.

As we saw at the back end of last season, we are a player or two away from being a hugely inferior team.

On the tough run thing, I have to disagree totally. Early season, almost every single team we played had important players out with injury/suspension, or returning underdone. Barring Barlow and Tarrant, we were able to select our best 22 the vast majority of the season. As for Pav and Sandi (news to me) not being 100%, I dare say pretty much every team would have been in the position of having their stars playing injured.

I agree we will struggle to push up the ladder because of the injuries you mention to guys like Hayden, Morabito, Balla, Barlow, etc, but I still think we should be aiming to finish around 5th-6th if we don't have any more setbacks with players. My concern is how we seem to be training in a manner which results in a high injury toll.

Two close wins against Carlton? We dominated them in both games for 3 quarters as far as I'm concerned, apart from late fadeouts/chokes. Don't let the scoreboard fool you. Clearly a better team when we play our best football. Should have been about 50 points up in that final game of the season at 3/4 time.

Being able to select our best 22 for majority of the season? You have to be kidding. Maybe at the start of the year ... when lo and behold we were second. Then it fell apart. McPharlin, Mayne, Broughton all missed significant parts of the season (without checking maybe around Rds 10-16?). Palmer was stuffed. So was Suban. Then there was Johnson's indiscretion. Add in Tarrant, Ballantyne, Pavlich, Sandilands, Barlow. No wonder teams like Richmond and North beat us. We lost games in second half of the season purely because we were decimated. No team suffered the quality of injuries that we did last year.

Pavlich played almost half the season at about 50% capacity, that was clear for everyone to see. And Sandilands was run into the ground by the last third of the year. They are almost the 2 most valuable (not best) players in the game, considering their worth to our side.

 

[anchor man]

We should aim for 5th or 6th!!!! you have to be joking.We should be aiming for tops spot,the premiership.Why aim low?We made massive progress last season and here,now,we have someone saying we aim for 5th or 6th!!!!!What tha.
Forget Hayden,he will not win his place back in the side.I think the game has passed by Roger.His pace has gone,he no longer can baulk and run round other players.He will start his year mid season at Souths,and finish it there.Hopefully with a premiership flag for the mighty Red and Whites.
We will just have to wait and see how our crop of younsters from last season have come along.Fyfe will be a star for us.
I think we have also recruited pretty well this season.Guys like Mzunga and Faulks appear to be ready made AFL players,but we will have to wait and see if they are.
Can't wait for the REAL season to commence.

 

[Clay Davis]

We are 4 men down on last years best 22 untill at least a third of the way through the season, while the chances of Ballas and Barlow to play even remotely close to last year are non existant. Sure, alot of our younger players will have improved, but then so will Melbourne's. Hawthorn and Adelaide had a terrible run with injuries last year and look to be having a better run this year, and after 2 close wins against Carlton, I wouldn't say we are miles ahead of them.

Take it the other way - why can't we finish ahead of the Bulldogs or Geelong? And maybe even St Kilda?

 

[rgauci]

We should aim for 5th or 6th!!!! you have to be joking.We should be aiming for tops spot,the premiership.Why aim low?We made massive progress last season and here,now,we have someone saying we aim for 5th or 6th!!!!!What tha.
Forget Hayden,he will not win his place back in the side.I think the game has passed by Roger.His pace has gone,he no longer can baulk and run round other players.He will start his year mid season at Souths,and finish it there.Hopefully with a premiership flag for the mighty Red and Whites.
We will just have to wait and see how our crop of younsters from last season have come along.Fyfe will be a star for us.
I think we have also recruited pretty well this season.Guys like Mzunga and Faulks appear to be ready made AFL players,but we will have to wait and see if they are.
Can't wait for the REAL season to commence.

Its just realism:

No Tarrant
No Hasleby
No Headland
No Morabito
No Hayden until mid year
Hill having an extremely interrupted preseason
Fyfe MIA for a few weeks
Ballantyne only recently getting into running
Barlow not looking like returning until midseason, won't be same immediately

That's nearly 1/2 our best 22 last year who are either gone or having poor preseasons through injury.

Positives; Palmer looks ripe again. Added Mzungu, Faulks, Anthony and Lower from an 'experienced' plug and play point of view.

I'm not sure our positives offset the negatives. If we make finals again, it will be a massive lauching pad for a premiership tilt in 2012.

If suddenly our injury woes start turning around, and we cop a bit of luck who knows what might happen. But the way the season is shaping up looks like we'll be starting behind the pack.

 

[Clay Davis]

If we don't make the finals again the season will be a failure.