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What is expected from Adelaide's Youngsters in 2007?

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The Adelaide v Melbourne thread seems to have evolved into a discussion of how well (or poorly) Adelaide have developed their youngsters in recent years.

The big question then, is what do we expect from our youngsters in 2007?

For this analysis I will only discuss players drafted in the last three years (ie under the Neil Craig regime). Players will be listed from youngest to oldest. I'm not going to ponder the prospects of our rookies either, though Archard & McIntyre both look like being elevated sooner rather than later.

James Sellar - I would expect him to spend the majority of the season learning his craft at Glenelg. I would hope that he would spend his entire year down at the Bay playing in the seniors, without dropping to the magoos. It would be nice if he were ready to debut late in the season, earning a handful of games (1-3 at best), but this would be a bonus.

David Mackay - Would be expected to spend much of the season running around for Souths. With the number of slightly older young midfielders ahead of him it would be a mild surprise if he made his debut this year.

Darren Pfeiffer - After an "interesting" 2006, Pfeiffer would be looking to make his debut in 2007 - probably playing off a HBF. I would hope that he would manage a small number of games this year (5 games maximum) to give him a taste.

Kurt Tippett - Although he's only played a total of 20 games of footy in his life, he's probably the second most likely to debut in 2007 (behind Griffin). He will probably play this year due to our seriously depleted list of tall forwards (Biglands, Hentschel, KMac all AWOL and Perrie yet to prove his fitness). Once again, a handful of games should suffice - but as his body is supposedly "AFL ready" already he should be encouraged to aim as high as possible if/when he does get the opportunity.

Richard Douglas - Debuted last year and played a ripper in our most recent Mickey Mouse Challenge outing. I would be hoping for him to play over half the season (around 15 games) this year, our best chance of earning a Rising Star nomination. It's too much to expect him to play the whole season, he still has a long way to mature physically, but he should be given every possible opportunity to show what he is capable of.

Chris Knights - Played 3 games in 2005 and 9 more in 2006. He is Adelaide's highest posession winner on a disposals-per-minute basis, top 10 in the whole of the AFL. The big question is what he does with those disposals. Knights should be looking to become a fixture in the team this year - one of the first 18 players selected each week.

John Meesen - His knee injury will prove to be a major setback. I would not expect to see him wearing the tricolours again until late in the season. However, in his third year on the list he MUST be tested at the highest level to see if he will make it. Big men take longer to mature, so it's not the end of the line if he doesn't show much at senior level this year, but it's important for him to know that he's still part of our plans.

John Hinge - Upgraded from the rookie list at the end of 2005, 2007 is probably a make or break year for Hinge. I would be very disappointed if he fails to force his way into the side at some stage this year - another player with 1-5 game expectations.

Nathan Van Berlo - Having played every game for which he was available in 2006 he is now an established player in our senior line-up. I would expect him to play every game in 2007, continuing to improve on his 2006 performances. I'm looking forward to him finally having his first 20-posession game.

Jonathon Griffin - Went into the pre-season ranked 4th, he is almost certain to debut in round 1 thanks to the injuries suffered by Maric & Meesen. I would expect him to hold down the position of backup ruckman for quite a while - probably the first half of the season, until Maric and/or Meesen can justify being selected in his place.

Ivan Maric - Was probably our #2 ruckman (excluding Biglands) until injured. His injury will keep him out of action for a while and he then has to work his way back to full match fitness. I would expect him to play most of the second half of the season in the seniors, though the position is now Griffin's to lose.

Bernie Vince - Was the first of the 2005 draftees to debut, doing so in R1 last year, but looked like he was badly out of his depth. Went back to the SANFL and performed well until injuring his knee late in the season. I'm really not sure what to expect from The Weekender this year. Help?

Jason Porplyzia - Played more games than any other debutant in 2006, but you'd expect that from a mature aged recruit. Needles should be looking to establish himself as a regular member of Adelaide's senior side this year.

Bryce Campbell - Drafted last year as a mature aged recruit, he's spent most of the pre-season injured. I'm not really sure what to expect from Campbell, but I would not be surprised if he spends the entire season with the Redlegs.

Nick Gill - Hardly a youngster (at 24 years of age), he is however a first year draftee. Sadly, things do not look good for Gill as his body does not appear to be capable of coping with training at an AFL level. IF he can get his body right, then I'd expect him to play a handful of games. IF not, then expect him to be delisted at the end of the year.

Comments? Thoughts?
 
Of the 16 named I would hope/expect 10 of those to play 100 games for the AFC

What? You want me to name them? :o

If you won't, then I will..

Those I think WILL make it to 100 games:
Two of Maric, Meesen & Griffin (though which two I'm not sure)
Nathan Van Berlo
James Sellar
Kurt Tippett
David Mackay
Chris Knights
Richard Douglas

Those who I'm not sure about:
Darren Pfeiffer
Jason Porplyzia

Those I doubt will make it:
Bryce Campbell
Bernie Vince
Nick Gill
John Hinge
Loser of the Griffin/Maric/Meesen battle.
 
Ok then I lied :o make it 9

100 games hopers
Nathan Van Berlo
Ivan Maric
Chris Knights
Richard Douglas
Jason Porplyzia
James Sellar
Kurt Tippett
David Mackay
John Griffin

50+
Bernie Vince
Darren Pfeiffer
John Hinge

The rest

I do think Meesen will play 100 games. I just dont know who for
 

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Also for anyone wanting to know why the heck I would consider Vince for that many games in 2007, it's because I think we lack a genuine forwardline matchwinner, someone who can do something speccy at a deadset crunch period. Burton is a freak, but he won't camp up forward all the time, we need someone up there all game who can pull something out of his bum. Vince has that ability, I reckon the AFC needs to let him develop it at AFL level.
 
2006 draftees – Bryce Campbell, Nick Gill, David McKay, James Sellar, Kurt Tippett, Rhys Archard, Greg Gellman, Andrew McIntyre

I place not very many expectations on this group of player simply for the fact they have only been at the club for just under 6 months now. It would be fantastic for there individual development if any of they perceived younger boys were rewarded with an AFL game but senior selection in the SANFL should be the first step.

The first step for Sellar, Tippett, Gellman and McIntyre would be to establish themselves as senior players at their SANFL club as well as developing good training habits to go along with implementing the correct forms of recovery after games.

Gill, Campbell and Archard are a few years older and understand the rigours of senior football. They should be under the impression that they were drafted to increase the playing depth on the AFC list and if selected could play right away.

Expectations: Due to a high injury count to key tall’s Kurt Tippett could play 3 or 4 games early in the season but more than likely finish the season at West Adelaide. James Sellar is playing trial games at CHB for Glenelg and could play there round 1 and be pushing for selection by round 18 or 19 if his own fitness and form increase over the season. David McKay is too light for AFL football and needs an extra 12 months of a lower standard senior football. The earliest he would be looking at plying AFL would be NAB cup 2008, no short term expectations in how they perform but long term Tippett, Sellers and McKay looks like he is going to be quality. Andrew McIntyre should be the first player upgraded and could debut if needed.


2005 draftee – Richard Douglas, Darren Pfeiffer, John Hinge (rookie upgrade), Jason Porplyzia, Bernie Vince

After being in the AFC system and under the tutelage of Allen Steward for the past 12 months all 5 players should have the confidence that they belong and have the ability to push for senior selection. SANFL form will dictate when any of theses players get selected Douglas and Porplyzia could be picked as early as round 1. .

By the end of 2007 I would be disappointed if all 5 have not been given a game on more than 1 occasion and shown glimpses of having something special for a long and promising career.

Expectations: Douglas has the ability to gain an NAB nomination if given enough game time and after a good first up year Jason Porplyzia should be able to cement a spot as a half forward. All 5 should be retained for 2008.


2004 draftee - Chris Knights, John Meesen, Ivan Maric, Nathan Van Berlo, Jonathon Griffin (rookie listed)

IMO Knights and Van Berlo are ready to go and should have a rapid level of improvement from good SANFL player to good AFL players. Form and injury permitting they should be getting a senior game every week from round 1. Jonathon Griffin ideally should be looking at cementing his spot in the Doggies senior side but due the large amount of injuries to the taller players he will get his opportunity to play before he is really ready. One mans misfortune is another man fortune.

As I said in a different thread, I would be disappointed of Meesen and Maric allow there pre season injury to wreak there season and hopefully cannot get between 8 – 12 games each in the second half of the season.

Expectations: Jonathon Griffin is the likely candidate to start the season as Ben Hudson back up ruckman but not necessarily end the season that way. 22 rounds of senior AFL football is a long time and this will give both Meesen and Maric motive to get fit and get selected after June or July.
 
My topic a little while ago about our kids vs port's didn't head in the direction I wanted, so I thought I'd ask:

Comparing the youngsters on our list to those on theirs that are at the SAME STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT (in game time), which group shows more promise and/or potential?
 
My topic a little while ago about our kids vs port's didn't head in the direction I wanted, so I thought I'd ask:

Comparing the youngsters on our list to those on theirs that are at the SAME STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT (in game time), which group shows more promise and/or potential?
IMO the lads at Adelaide will be much better over the next few years.
 
on a case by case basis, I find it nearly impossible to disagree with anything you've put forward. maybe Bernie plays a couple more games, but who really know?

excellent piece.
 
I dunno - maybe the thread starter? :p
I'll always click on a thread started by Vader. Fair analysis of our young stocks.

Ever since he was drafted (moreso the pick we used on him) Bernie Vince has created a lot of debate amongst fans. He certainly is an interesting case and I honestly don't know what to make of him either. If he makes it I think he could be a 200 game player, but he could just as easily (probably more likely) be a big flop.

Funny story though. I know one of the guys who was runner for Melbourne at the trial match in Mt.Gambier and he had to make three moves in the Melbourne backline. Bizzell to Vince, Garland to Welsh and there was one other that escapes me. Running messages can be a difficult task, especially when you have to make three changes and one of the opposition players involved is an unknown, so the runner went up to Garland first (who was standing on Vince) and while he was there he asked Bernie, "Are you Vince?" Bernie was a bit confused, but he ended up saying yes and the runner replied, "Thanks. Bizzell is coming to play on you soon." :D
 

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You're just jealous RL that you weren't included ;)

I have to agree with the others that Vader's posts are always quality and make me think, even if I don't always agree with him.

In this case I think the Rising Star nominations are very overrated. Over the past couple of years it has been quite obvious that they pick a list at the start of the year and then wait for a half decent game before announcing a nomination. Sometimes they wait too long and have to name one on their list that had a fairly ordinary game and ignore another player that had a great game on the weekend that isn't on their prospective list.
 

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In this case I think the Rising Star nominations are very overrated. Over the past couple of years it has been quite obvious that they pick a list at the start of the year and then wait for a half decent game before announcing a nomination. Sometimes they wait too long and have to name one on their list that had a fairly ordinary game and ignore another player that had a great game on the weekend that isn't on their prospective list.

I wonder if the RS is used to promote the ''TOP TEN Draft'' etc.
 
I wonder if the RS is used to promote the ''TOP TEN Draft'' etc.


Always seemed to be this way to me. I don't have a lot of faith in the AFL selected panels as I remember Chris Mainwairing once admitting that he didn't watch all (or even most of) the games that a nominated player was in.
 
In this case I think the Rising Star nominations are very overrated. Over the past couple of years it has been quite obvious that they pick a list at the start of the year and then wait for a half decent game before announcing a nomination. Sometimes they wait too long and have to name one on their list that had a fairly ordinary game and ignore another player that had a great game on the weekend that isn't on their prospective list.

Quite true and probably subjective anyway.

I thought until he got injured against us that Dale Thomas from Collingwood had his name on the award.

It turned out he only received 2 votes up until he did his shoulder.

But the Brownlow is like that also.
 
I agree with Crows98 and Vader on this one, fair posts by both guys.

Realistically, there will be guys that disappoint and guys that come out of nowhere throughout the season. Let's hope the vast majority of our kids surprise us.

Running messages can be a difficult task, especially when you have to make three changes and one of the opposition players involved is an unknown, so the runner went up to Garland first (who was standing on Vince) and while he was there he asked Bernie, "Are you Vince?" Bernie was a bit confused, but he ended up saying yes and the runner replied, "Thanks. Bizzell is coming to play on you soon." :D

Gold ! That cracked me up. :thumbsu:
 
Quite true and probably subjective anyway.

I thought until he got injured against us that Dale Thomas from Collingwood had his name on the award.

It turned out he only received 2 votes up until he did his shoulder.

But the Brownlow is like that also.
RS voting is different to Brownlow. The panel rank their best five nominees based on the whole season they've had. So when Thomas got two votes one or two panelists thought his partial season was better than most nominees full seasons. Same thing with Murphy, who I believe also polled some votes but missed a lot of games.
 
RS voting is different to Brownlow. The panel rank their best five nominees based on the whole season they've had. So when Thomas got two votes one or two panelists thought his partial season was better than most nominees full seasons. Same thing with Murphy, who I believe also polled some votes but missed a lot of games.


But the issue really is VC that how can they accurately rate the full season when they don't watch every game?
 

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